Nevada Caucuses Open Thread

Todd is on the ground at one of the caucus locations on the strip in Vegas and unfortunately does not have internet access. But here are a few rumors that are apparently floating around inside the ballroom in the Wynn hotel, where Todd is located (consider with the requisite grain of salt as they are rumors...):

Apparently bomb sniffing dogs swept this at-large caucus location leading many to believe a candidate with secret service protection will be coming through shortly. Specifically, talk is that Obama will be making an appearance before heading to Chicago to catch the results from the state. Rumors are also that Clinton will be making a showing at the Luxor this morning before the caucuses.

Update [2008-1-19 14:20:39 by Jonathan Singer]: Per Todd, there are still more media in the hall than actual voters. The rush of voters is expected at 11:30 AM Pacific. Also, an observer from AFSCME, which is supporting Clinton, told Todd that he had heard workers were told the caucus location was only for Obama supporters, FWIW.

Update [2008-1-19 14:20:39 by Jonathan Singer]: Final Zogby/Reuters poll from Nevada: Clinton 45, Obama 39, Edwards 6 (that last number is a bit surprising, no?).

Update [2008-1-19 14:31:24 by Jonathan Singer]: Todd reports that a bus from the Hilton just arrived at the Wynn with many of its occupants wielding Obama signs. Note that voters can caucus within a 2 1/2 mile radius of where they work.

Update [2008-1-19 15:2:46 by Jonathan Singer]: From Todd: Dueling rallies for Clinton and Obama in the hall, with most in the Clinton camp Hispanic and most in the Obama camp African-American. While there seems to be a lot of support from Obama from the culinary workers local 226, there are some with 226 shirts and Clinton stickers. And roughly 125 or so caucus-goers are at the Luxor.

Update [2008-1-19 15:24:27 by Jonathan Singer]: According to Todd, things are a bit disorganized at the Wynn, with many more continuing to file in while others worry that the hour that they took off beginning at 11:30 will run out before the caucuses are over. No indication yet as to whether folks will stay for the duration of the event or not.

Update [2008-1-19 15:39:18 by Jonathan Singer]: Todd reports that the viability threshold at the Wynn is actually 20 percent rather than 15. Not sure if this is a trend around the state or only at the Luxor...

Update [2008-1-19 15:49:31 by Jonathan Singer]: Reporting on the ground at the Wynn hotel, Todd informs us that Clinton had the support of 185 caucus-goers, Obama 181, and Edwards 8, with 3 uncommitted. That means that the results from this location will come down to how those last 11 non-Obama and non-Clinton supporters caucus. Todd also notes that word has it that although conventional wisdom had the Strip going to Obama, the results may be cutting in the opposite direction.

Update [2008-1-19 15:59:1 by Jonathan Singer]: Final count from the Wynn, 189 for Clinton to 187 for Obama, per Todd, who is now heading over to the media center over at UNLV.

I'll be updating this thread as I hear more from Todd. For now while we wait for some more updates and actual numbers from the caucuses, feel free to consider this an open thread... What's on your mind?



Display:


Bill and Chelsea campaigning at the MGM (none / 0)

From the LV Sun blog:

Bill surprises MGM Grand workers

By Jon Ralston · January 19, 2008 · 9:50 AM

Sources report the ex-president made an unannounced stop by the MGM Grand employee dining room this morning. Greeted like a rock star. Entourage came with Hillary buttons "I love my union, I'm voting for Hillary" flyers (Spanish and English).

In spite of repeated requests from hotel staff that they not hand them out, employees kept asking for them. Chelsea reported to be leafleting, too.

http://www.lasvegassun.com/blogs/ralston s-flash/2008/jan/19/bill-surprises-mgm-g rand-workers/


by hwc on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 02:19:22 PM EST

Results Page (none / 0)

You can get the Democratic results here:

http://www.nvdems08.com/

And the Republican results here:

http://www.nvgopcaucus.com/results


Restore America's Strength.
by RJEvans on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 02:23:18 PM EST

Re: Nevada Caucuses Open Thread (none / 0)

Thanks for the link, hwc, I think that's awesome. I want one of those buttons just for shits and giggles. I hope the rank and file buck the union and Hillary wins big.
by americanincanada on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 02:23:59 PM EST

sounds like (none / 0)

NV may go down as nasty dirty politics. How many lawsuits will come out of NV?

Chicago style politics in action?

This is not a slam on Obama just a comparison to Chicago politics.


Washington Woman

Progressive Blue

by kevin22262 on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 02:24:34 PM EST

Re: sounds like (none / 0)

Are there lots of lawsuits in Chicago politics?

If anyone wins by a large margin there probably won't be any lawsuits in NV.


by kristoph on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 02:28:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: sounds like (none / 0)

It's hard to sue when you are floating in the Chicago river with cement shoes.


by hwc on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 02:31:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: sounds like (none / 0)

hwc, you are brutal!


by Zeitgeist9000 on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 02:34:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: sounds like (none / 0)

Please, it's hard enough to clean up the Chicago River as it is.  Dump your bodies in Lake Michigan like everybody else.  Preferably up toward Cheesehead country somewhere.


Read Brian's Utah Weblog
by Brian Watkins on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:00:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

huh (none / 0)

I did not say there were lawsuits in Chicago.

NV may be a different story.


Washington Woman

Progressive Blue

by kevin22262 on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 02:33:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Do you think (none / 0)

that if stories of intimidation and lies about who can caucus where, are proven to be true, that there won't be lawsuits?


Washington Woman

Progressive Blue

by kevin22262 on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 02:35:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I hope that Zogby is an outlier (none / 0)

I would hate to see Edwards in single digits in NV.


Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.
by desmoinesdem on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 02:27:07 PM EST

Re: I hope that Zogby is an outlier (none / 0)

I posted the Zogby late last night. It was released about 2:00 am as their last in a series of rolling tracking polls, updated with last night's polling.

For Jan 17th-18th (with 15th-17th in parentheses)

Clinton 45 (42)
Obama 39 (37)
Edwards 6 (12)


by hwc on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 02:30:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I hope that Zogby is an outlier (none / 0)

As I said in response to a post earlier this week, I think Edwards will be embarrassed in NV, and it will change the dynamic of the race to bolster Hillary.


by Zeitgeist9000 on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 02:32:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I hope that Zogby is an outlier (none / 0)

Yeah it's up above. I'm hoping it's an outlier too and Edwards can manage 15%. He didn't run any ads and I think the culinary union and SEIU took a lot of Edwards' previous supporters away, so that's probably why he may have lost support from those earlier polls, as well as some sentiment spreading around the media that the race is between Obama and Clinton. Obama is also basically guaranteed 10% of the delegates now in those at-large districts, which obviously hurts both Edwards and Clinton.


by Progressive America on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 02:34:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Not much movement (none / 0)

Seems the Edwards numbers floated to both Hillary and Obama fairly equally.  But how can you really measure caucus turnout at this stage?


by elrod on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 02:32:07 PM EST

Re: Nevada Caucuses Open Thread (none / 0)

They're busing in voters? haha, wow.


by world dictator on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 02:33:09 PM EST

Westerners more comforable with Mormons (none / 0)

Romney beats Huckabee amongst evangenlicals. Are westerners more comfortable with Mormons, because they are more likely to know one. I think our media has a serious east coast bias and I think it effects the coverage a lot. South Carolina is only a little bigger than Nevada so one does it matter so much more?


by benb on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 02:37:35 PM EST

Re: Westerners more comforable with Mormons (none / 0)

those are mormons who are overwhelmingly supporting Romney. Theres large pockets of mormons in west coast states.


by world dictator on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 02:41:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Westerners more comforable with Mormons (none / 0)

And westerners are more likely to know Mormons.

Mormons tend to have big families and tend to be active in school and community activities and athletics. So it's often common knowledge who the Mormon families are in the community, and they're usually viewed as nice people with kids who don't get in a whole lot of trouble.


by LakersFan on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 02:53:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Westerners more comforable with Mormons (none / 0)

Is that true in California as well?


by benb on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 02:55:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Westerners more comforable with Mormons (none / 0)

I live in California so that's what I'm mainly speaking about. Mormon population is big in CA, NV, AZ, ID and of course UT.


by LakersFan on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 02:59:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

At the caucus now... (none / 0)

...and its hectic to say the least. You can tell its new since no one seems to have a clear idea what to do. Things seem to be better on track now though. I was in the right line for about 10 mins, told I was in the wrong line, stood in another line for 20mins, told that this was the wrong line and now back in the original line. Oy vey.


by werd2406 on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 02:38:08 PM EST

Re: Nevada Caucuses Open Thread (none / 0)

Todd reports that a bus from the Hilton just arrived at the Luxor ....

Why am I guessing the bus probably has California license plates?


by hwc on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 02:41:29 PM EST

Nevada is a lot different from Iowa & NH (none / 0)

The Las Vegas Sun has an excellent chart comparing the Nevada demographics to IA, NH and the U.S.

Nevada really is very different than the previous contests.

See it here:

http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2008/jan 19/nevada-really-lot-different-democrat s-first-two-st


by LakersFan on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 02:42:58 PM EST

Obama Leading (none / 0)

Obama got the first vote recorded.  He has 100% of the vote right now.


by Piuma on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 02:43:55 PM EST

Re: Obama Leading (none / 0)

hahahahah


by Zeitgeist9000 on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 02:45:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Leading (none / 0)

hahaha,  .09% of one county reporting and he's in the lead...wooohooo!!


by Jim Engler on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 02:45:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Leading (none / 0)

Is it possible there was a precinct where only 1 person showed up?


by Piuma on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 02:46:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Leading (none / 0)

got me...hard to believe in Clark County because isn't the LV?


by Jim Engler on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 02:47:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Leading (none / 0)

I heard that there were precincts in 2000 in Iowa that only had one person.


by benb on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 02:57:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Leading (none / 0)

LMAO
by americanincanada on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 02:46:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Chris Bower's post on REP. RESULTS (none / 0)

Nevada Polls Way Off: First, Romney looks like he won with about 46%-47% of the vote, beating McCain by more than 30%. In fact, it appears that Ron Paul finished second in Nevada ahead of McCain, and did so by at least 5%. Both of these results are nowhere near the pre-caucus polls, none of which had shown Paul higher than fourth, Romney ahead by more than 15%, or McCain below 19%. So, our first lesson is that Nevada polls are entirely unreflective of Nevada results so far.


by BDM on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 02:51:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Leading (none / 0)

It is delegates, not votes. So Obama has 1 delegate awarded in a precinct with one delegate.


by kristoph on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 02:49:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Leading (none / 0)

He now has 2.  It is odd because the doors are supposed to be open until Noon.


by Piuma on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 02:51:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Leading (none / 0)

make it 3


by Jim Engler on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 02:52:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Leading (2.00 / 1)

We're going for a shutout.


by Piuma on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 02:54:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Leading (none / 0)

So much for your shut out.
by americanincanada on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 02:56:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Leading (none / 0)

I thought they didn't actually award the delgates until after the votes were counted and the realignment happened?
by americanincanada on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 02:52:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Problems with voting machines in SC (none / 0)

South Carolina primary plagued by bad voting machines, snow
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/01/19/s outh.carolina.gop/index.html

How will this affect the Democratic party primary?


Washington Woman

Progressive Blue

by kevin22262 on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 02:49:29 PM EST

Re: Problems with voting machines in SC (none / 0)

Well the Democratic primary is a in a week.


by kristoph on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 02:52:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Problems with voting machines in SC (none / 0)

I heard a report that some of the machines were not set back to zero at the start.  So far in the NH, that's the one real problem which has been uncovered in the very early stage of the recount.


by Piuma on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 02:53:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Problems with voting machines in SC (none / 0)

Why is that not reflected anywhere? why is it not on the Sec of State's website?
by americanincanada on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 02:55:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Problems with voting machines in SC (none / 0)

I think it's the explanation being given as the only possible one to explain why Clinton, Obama, and Edwards have significantly less votes than first reported in Manchester Ward 5 without any evidence they went anywhere.  Overall, both Clinton and Obama have about 600 less votes.  The recount link is:

http://www.sos.nh.gov/recountresults.htm


by Piuma on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:01:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nevada Caucuses Open Thread (none / 0)

I'm very worried about that comment that people are being told caucus locations are for Obama supporters only.


While I could sit in church and pray all I want, I wouldn't be fulfilling God's will unless I went out and did the Lord's work ~ Barack Obama
by bowiegeek on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 02:52:31 PM EST

my vote may not be counted.... (none / 0)

...is what I'm being told since no one seems to know where to go and the "deadline" may be too late.


by werd2406 on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 02:52:45 PM EST

Re: my vote may not be counted.... (none / 0)

thats absurd


by Jim Engler on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 02:56:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: my vote may not be counted.... (none / 0)

http://www.nvdemscaucus.com/index.php?op tion=com_content&task=blogcategory&a mp;id=19&Itemid=39


While I could sit in church and pray all I want, I wouldn't be fulfilling God's will unless I went out and did the Lord's work ~ Barack Obama
by bowiegeek on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:12:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

MSNBC: Obama back to Chicago (1.00 / 1)

MSNBC is reporting that Obama and his family have left Nevada and are flying back to Chicago.

Dinner at the Rezkos?


by hwc on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 02:57:27 PM EST

Re: MSNBC: Obama back to Chicago (none / 0)

Can't we leave the petty and pointless jabs and jeers to the Republicans?


by frankies on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:01:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: MSNBC: Obama back to Chicago (none / 0)

I thought Obama was a Republican.


by hwc on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 04:00:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: MSNBC: Obama back to Chicago (none / 0)

Ha ha .. but seriously, doesn't that seems like a big mistake? Shouldn't he just wait until the caucus is over? It's not going to be a late night.

I see Edwards is in Atlanta. Is Hillary still in Nevada?


www.payd.org Keeping PA Blue
by dannybauder on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:07:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: MSNBC: Obama back to Chicago (none / 0)

Are you being serious or just joking around?


by lonnette33 on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:40:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nevada Caucuses Open Thread (none / 0)

I think Romney played this smart. He is getting good news coverage with Nevada and it will effect the SC vote. Also he could win all the delegates in Nevada and that will be the story regardless of SC. I happy to see McCain going away, I think he was our biggest threat.


by benb on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:01:26 PM EST

Re: Nevada Caucuses Open Thread (none / 0)

Kucinich was viable somewhere?   Huh?


by Jim Engler on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:04:50 PM EST

Re: Nevada Caucuses Open Thread (none / 0)

Wow...the Clark county total is getting very interesting. Doesn't that include Las Vegas?
by americanincanada on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:08:57 PM EST

Re: Nevada Caucuses Open Thread (none / 0)

Yes. Obama needs to do well in Clark.


by kristoph on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:10:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nevada Caucuses Open Thread (none / 0)

Doesn't everyone need to do well in Clark County?  Something like 75% of the entire state lives in Clark County.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:17:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nevada Caucuses Open Thread (none / 0)

Clark is a very large country which stretches out to Henderson and has a varied demographic.


by Piuma on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:11:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nevada Caucuses Open Thread (none / 0)

Yes. It has something like 70% of the state's population.


by LakersFan on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:22:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nevada Caucuses Open Thread (none / 0)

None of the at large casino's have reported anything yet but I have a very good feeling, as a Clinton supporter.
by americanincanada on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:11:36 PM EST

Re: Nevada Caucuses Open Thread (none / 0)

Clinton with 2% lead with 4% reporting.


by kristoph on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:13:10 PM EST

Re: Nevada Caucuses Open Thread (none / 0)

Hard to say we can tell anything with 5% of the vote in, but it sure is looking bad for Edwards so far.  


by Piuma on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:17:41 PM EST

Re: Nevada Caucuses Open Thread (none / 0)

Hillary is way out ahead in the entrance polls.


by Progressive America on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:20:39 PM EST

Re: Nevada Caucuses Open Thread (none / 0)

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primari es/results/epolls/index.html#NVDEM


by Progressive America on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:21:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Hillary clearly wins looking at the Entrance Polls (none / 0)

So I guess we wait to see if the polls are accurate and/or if anyone changed his or her mind.  

A couple of things that stood out for me is that Obama barely won independents while Clinton crushed him on experience.


by BDB on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:28:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

good god..... (none / 0)

This caucus is just wow...I'm still waiting to vote. They're telling people you can't vote because they ran out of ballots. This is really awful.


by werd2406 on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:38:54 PM EST

Re: good god..... (none / 0)

Are you kidding me? That's bullshit.


by lonnette33 on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:42:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: good god..... (none / 0)

Wow..they planned these caucuses really well then didn't they?


Oh Mammy Dear, we're all mad over here livin' in America
by JDF on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:42:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: good god..... (none / 0)

Good turnout at least. Maybe no one's voter suppression efforts worked out.


by souvarine on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:52:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nevada Caucuses Open Thread (none / 0)

CNN was live at Ceasar's Palace, results after realignment: Obama - 86 (17 delegates) Clinton - 80 (16 delegates) Watching it on tv there was some very intense fighting and getting into eachother's aces as they tried to persuade non-viable Kucinich and Edwards supporters. It was bad enough that one Edwards supporter decided to leave and told the people not to count him at all.
by americanincanada on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:47:20 PM EST


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