Rasmussen Reports has conducted its first polling on the California primary, and though one cannot make an apples-to-apples comparison between its data and the data culled by other organizations, it's worth noting that the Rasmussen poll finds Hillary Clinton's lead to be as small as it has been in any public polling since January 2007.
| Candidate | Rasmussen | Pollster.com |
| Clinton | 38 | 47.6 |
| Obama | 33 | 29.0 |
| Edwards | 12 | 12.1 |
We're still a long way off from the California primary, and a lot can happen between now and February 5th (like Nevada and South Carolina, for instance, and at least one or two more debates). That said, a lot of California voters like myself have their ballots in hand now, and with perhaps half of all primary voters sending in their ballots before super duper Tuesday, so voter sentiments today do in fact matter.
This poll, which was in the field just a single day (Monday) and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, could be an outlier. Clinton's lead in the other three polls taken in California this month have shown her lead to be 12, 15 and 16 points, much higher than her 5-point lead per Rasmussen (which is within the poll's margin of error). That sad, if there is in fact a tightening in California, it might be an harder for Clinton to put away the race on February 5.
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