Don't Write Nevada Off as a Sure Win for Obama

The Nevada caucuses are about as difficult a contest to poll as far as things come -- the caucuses are a new development, we have little idea what turnout will look like, etc. -- but that isn't stopping at least a handful of pollsters from making a stab at determining the current support enjoyed by each candidate. A Research 2000 poll in the field over the weekend showed Barack Obama holding a narrow 2-point lead over Hillary Clinton, with John Edwards also within striking distance, while an American Research Group survey conducted over a similar period of time had Clinton up three on Obama, with Edwards similarly within striking range. Now a new Mason-Dixon poll, the exact details of which are still yet to come, shows Clinton leading Obama by a wider 9-point margin.

Again, it's hard to put too much faith in any Nevada survey given the difficulties entailed in polling such a contest. That said, the take away point from all of this data is this: There is very much still a race on our hands in the Silver State, one that we don't know how will turn out at this point and won't until the results come piling in Saturday afternoon.



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Re: Don't Write Nevada Off as a Sure Win for Obama (none / 0)

I STILL would like to know if Michael Whouley is there or not?  ;)


by robert ethan on Fri Jan 18, 2008 at 01:31:24 AM EST

Re: Don't Write Nevada Off as a Sure Win for Obama (none / 0)

Who would write it off as a sure win when you say yourself that the polls show it in a dead heat?


by dmc2 on Fri Jan 18, 2008 at 01:31:26 AM EST

Re: Don't Write Nevada Off as a Sure Win for Obama (2.00 / 1)

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/1/18/ 04846/6848/626/438712



by rclouse on Fri Jan 18, 2008 at 01:33:30 AM EST

Bronze is nice. (1.50 / 2)


by nerdoff on Fri Jan 18, 2008 at 01:53:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Go John Go! (none / 0)

Love this video! Love the music!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wRqUZx7z4 uY


Washington Woman

Progressive Blue

by kevin22262 on Fri Jan 18, 2008 at 01:53:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Don't Write Nevada Off as a Sure Win for Obama (2.00 / 1)

Anyone who claims to know what's going to happen in Nevada is lying to you. Anyone who's telling you Obama's got it locked up is trying to lower expectations. Anyone who's telling you the same for Clinton is trying to lower them for Obama.

No one has a clue how Nevada is going to shake out.


Further Reading
by Dave Sund on Fri Jan 18, 2008 at 01:33:32 AM EST

Especially the moron (1.00 / 1)

who typed this post.


by nerdoff on Fri Jan 18, 2008 at 01:54:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Don't Write Nevada Off as a Sure Win for Obama (none / 0)

I am so upset about those awful, racist UNITE ads.  Forget about Hillary, someone on another site, a self-described minority, explained how often minorities already feel like maybe politicians really don't care about or respect them, even if they are nice to their face.  I imagine latinos especially perhaps feel this way, given the immigration debate lately.  And, this ad is meant to play on that.  Imagine a latino Hillary supporter, maybe one of the happy faces of a kitchen worker I saw on her website, hearing this ad.  It would be like a slap in the face.  You can imagine the insecurity that person might feel.  Maybe they would question have I duped?  Maybe Hillary doesn't care about me.  This strikes me as so sad.


formerly bookgirl
by masslib1 on Fri Jan 18, 2008 at 01:39:59 AM EST

Re: Don't Write Nevada Off as a Sure Win for Obama (1.00 / 3)

Yeah we don't want to upset the "happy face of a kitchen worker", masslib1. God knows how hard it is to get domestics these days, much less smiling ones.


by robert ethan on Fri Jan 18, 2008 at 01:42:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Wow, you have very little respect for people. (none / 0)

I am talking about people's self respect at risk by this deplorable ad meant to make them question their value to someone they were supporting for President.  Jesus.


formerly bookgirl
by masslib1 on Fri Jan 18, 2008 at 01:45:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Wow, you have very little respect for people. (none / 0)

I won't be too worried if I were you.

Relax.

Rory Ried and Whouley are great at what they do .

You would be pleasantly surprised when you watch the returns on Saturday.


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Fri Jan 18, 2008 at 01:52:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Wow, you have very little respect for people. (none / 0)

Ok, Lori, thanks.  It's really not the vote I am concerned with.  It's just when this person wrote this, I just totally empathized with how that latino voter driving home from work might feel hearing this ad.


formerly bookgirl
by masslib1 on Fri Jan 18, 2008 at 01:55:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Wow, you have very little respect for people. (none / 0)

I understand what you mean , however very few voters would be swayed by that two days to the caucus.

Its not a coincidence she has high numbers in the latino community , one radio ad cannot erase the properity of the Clinton years and years of committment to the hispanic community .


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Fri Jan 18, 2008 at 01:59:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Wow, you have very little respect for people. (none / 0)

What is it that Rory Reid does again?


by desmoulins on Fri Jan 18, 2008 at 02:45:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Don't Write Nevada Off as a Sure Win for Obama (2.00 / 1)

Byt the way, what exactly is wrong with working in a kitchen?  Do you have any idea what a jackass you sound like?


formerly bookgirl
by masslib1 on Fri Jan 18, 2008 at 01:52:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Don't Write Nevada Off as a Sure Win for Obama (2.00 / 1)

I agree it's shameful.


by kristoph on Fri Jan 18, 2008 at 01:43:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Don't Write Nevada Off as a Sure Win for Obama (none / 0)

Who said Obama is going to win Nevada?


Slash and burn politics baby! Say anything do anything lie cheat steal railroad the opposition into submission: CLINTON FORMULA FOR 2008.
by crackityjones on Fri Jan 18, 2008 at 01:46:41 AM EST

Re: Don't Write Nevada Off as a Sure Win for Obama (none / 0)

It's was a given he would win Nevada after the Culinary endorsed. Also intrade has him up by 20.

On the other hand, in the last few days, the Obama camp has been calling everyone and saying that 'Clinton is the prohibitive favorite'.

I hear their worried (but hopeful).

So who can say.


by kristoph on Fri Jan 18, 2008 at 02:01:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Don't Write Nevada Off as a Sure Win for Obama (none / 0)

Anybody who thinks that because a union endorses someone that candidate will win is a complete moron.

Seriously.


Slash and burn politics baby! Say anything do anything lie cheat steal railroad the opposition into submission: CLINTON FORMULA FOR 2008.
by crackityjones on Fri Jan 18, 2008 at 02:19:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Don't Write Nevada Off as a Sure Win for Obama (none / 0)

Well, that's the MSM for you :-)


by kristoph on Fri Jan 18, 2008 at 02:23:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Don't Write Nevada Off as a Sure Win for Obama (none / 0)

Except in this case the caucus system was likely pushed by the very powerful Culinary union so that it could have maximum influence.  Caucuses are by design meant to limit participation, the design of this particular caucus was clearly influenced by the culinary union.  


formerly bookgirl
by masslib1 on Fri Jan 18, 2008 at 02:28:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Unpredictable Elections (none / 0)

They are the best.

For some time now, the MSM media has seemed to feel that their principal job in elections is to TELL people how an election, or a campaign, will turn out. Let me tell you the ending folks!

There is a peculiar phobia or impatience with uncertainty that has come to dominate our political culture. Folks, we know this hurts you as much as it hurts us, but we can't tell you who is going to win!  Isn't it just so painful?  The suspense is killing us.  Is it killing you too?

Uh...no. That is the way it should be.  Brokaw recently took Matthews to task on essentially this subject during the NH results telecast.  Matthews suggested that political coverage just couldn't exist without endless prattling about polls and predictions.  

Brokaw calmly corrected him, reminding him of the virtues of principles, propriety and substantive reporting. Brokaw was transcendent. Matthews was sadly modern, benighted and genuinely flummoxed. (I was reminded of the conversations between William Holden and Faye Dunnaway in the film Network.)

Here's what democracy should be: everyone campaign hard; everyone vote on election day; and everyone sit back and enjoy the results as they come in.


by Demo37 on Fri Jan 18, 2008 at 01:51:47 AM EST

Re: Unpredictable Elections (none / 0)

YEah , I noticed that Matthews has stopped attacking Clinton since the New Hampshire primaries and he has stopped overtly promoting obama ( you know with all of that do the clinton's want to smother obama in his crib and all that obama is the messiah talk )

Brokaw did have an impact on him.


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Fri Jan 18, 2008 at 01:55:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Unpredictable Elections (none / 0)

Yeah, that smothering stuff was so over the top. Actually I was shoulder to shoulder with Matthews in NH, well shoulder to like hip or something, he's tall and I'm quite petite, and he is obsessed with her.  I'll be writing about that tomorrow in my post about my NH experience.


formerly bookgirl
by masslib1 on Fri Jan 18, 2008 at 01:58:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

That Conversation Between Brokaw and Matthews (none / 0)

I wish that conversation were required to be the "lead" into every "political program" on TV during this campaign.

First, folks, we have to play this once again.  There now...where were we?  Ah yes, we were going to do a substantive report...

It was perhaps the finest moment of campaign 2008.


by Demo37 on Fri Jan 18, 2008 at 02:01:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Unpredictable Elections (none / 0)

The official word from on high at NBC was that they wanted 'unbiased' reporting but apparently their real concern is that their loosing viewership among women and some of their large investors are Clinton supporters.

You can thus expect more Clinton friendly content to compensate.

Mathews is so transparent about this that I expect he'll crucify Obama if he has to.


by kristoph on Fri Jan 18, 2008 at 02:11:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Unpredictable Elections (none / 0)

No, he wont. I'm sure some of their biggest investors are also Obama supporters.


formerly bookgirl
by masslib1 on Fri Jan 18, 2008 at 02:12:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Unpredictable Elections (none / 0)

Really you are sure huh?

Is this your gut telling you that the biggest investors are Obama supporters?

You got some inside scoop? Please share..


Slash and burn politics baby! Say anything do anything lie cheat steal railroad the opposition into submission: CLINTON FORMULA FOR 2008.
by crackityjones on Fri Jan 18, 2008 at 02:20:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Unpredictable Elections (none / 0)

No, I actually think the ratings and the letters and petitions going around are what brought about the so-called mea culpa, however Obama has just as much support from wall street as Hillary so I find it hard to believe that would be a swaying factor.


formerly bookgirl
by masslib1 on Fri Jan 18, 2008 at 02:25:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Unpredictable Elections (none / 0)

Got it.


Slash and burn politics baby! Say anything do anything lie cheat steal railroad the opposition into submission: CLINTON FORMULA FOR 2008.
by crackityjones on Fri Jan 18, 2008 at 02:31:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Don't Write Nevada Off as a Sure Win for Obama (none / 0)

The title of this diary is off.  Nevada is a state in which HRC is suppose to win not Obama.  Nevada is HRC's to lose.

She has always been the frontrunner there.


by puma on Fri Jan 18, 2008 at 05:33:56 AM EST

Obama + Culinary = WIN (none / 0)

Obama is favored to win, Clinton is favored to lose.

Any other outcome will be terrible for Obama and great for Clinton.


by BigBoyBlue on Fri Jan 18, 2008 at 07:17:28 AM EST

Re: Don't Write Nevada Off as a Sure Win for Obama (none / 0)

Obama has a lock on the state.  Anything less than a 40 point win by Obama would be a terrible defeat :-) :-)


by markjay on Fri Jan 18, 2008 at 08:57:35 AM EST

I'm sensing this is turning against Obama. (none / 0)

A couple of polls for what they are worth, evidence of some lashing out blindly from the Obama campaign, the press have stopped talking him up, all adding up to a sense she's pulling ahead. The hope they could pin the lawsuit on her has failed and with these union coercion stories circulating which let's face it are entirely believable because it goes on all the time, sentiment has probably moved slightly in her favor. If he loses NV he's in much more serious trouble than she would be if she lost it.  


by ottovbvs on Fri Jan 18, 2008 at 10:32:01 AM EST

Las Vegas Sun (none / 0)

In the Las Vegas Sun endorsement of Hillary Clinton today, they went out of their way to attack the caucus system and the unfair way it was set up.   I am wondering if they had spoken out about the problems they saw in the system after if was set up, or if they were litigants in the suit.  I do not think that a newspaper would speak about about the unfairness on strip caucuses and coercion possibilities for the first time just because they are endorsing Clinton.  But who knows?


by NYMARJ on Fri Jan 18, 2008 at 11:58:53 AM EST


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