I am shocked that they are investing money in IN-07, which is D+9.  They must realize how incompetent and unqualified our candidate here is.

I can't remember which PA district he's in. I thought for sure we'd get him in 2006. He only barely won in 2004.

We need to get her in Congress.

Desmoinesdem, I am a committeeperson in PA-6 (Gerlach's district) we barely have candidates actually which is kinda sad.  It actually gets in that my Republican state rep announced her retirement and unfortunately it is looking like Guy Cirachhi (Gerlach's chief of staff) may get the seat uncontested.  But as for the US congressional seat, I was surprised but out of nowhere two people announced they were running but since they are so know and now has a primary maybe that is why they are not on the list.  I don't really know much about these 2 yet (Their names are Bob Roggio and Mike Liebowitz, who lost to Murphy in the primary 2 years ago)  well anyway that is where we are at.

All open seats with clear democratic choices for the primary not bad bets.

Thoughts on each:
CA-04 - Likely R, Doolittle dropping out was bad, period. However, Brown's COH might be enough to take it, I hope this one flips.

IL-11 - Likely Dem. We got our first choice, the Rs got second tier (at best) candidates. At R+1, this should be ours.

OH-15 - Lean Dem, Kilroy is good and well funded, the district is R+1, and the presumptive Republican nominee initially declined and jumped in months later, not exactly a ball of confidence.

OH-16 - Toss up. This is R+4 but Boccieri has been running hard for a year. Republicans don't exactly have knock out (but qualified none the less) candidates. This one will come down to the wire, but I wan Murphy to have another Iraq War Vet in Congress to double team with him, Boccieri looks like the most likely (followed by NY-26, Powers).

NJ-03 - D+4, We got State Sen John Adler. 'nuff said.

NJ-07 - Very oh so slightly maybe lean dem. At R+1 with a second time challenger who lost by 1% in 2006 and raised over $600k in 2007, I feel good about this. One of my friend's dad lives in the district, so I hope this one flips (My friend and I are in TX)

WY-AL - Likely Rep. Trauner rocks my face of. He was my biggest heart break of 2006, but without Cubin on the ballot, this looks bad. At least Colin Simpson is not running or it would already be over. I really want to be wrong here.

IL-14 - Leasch, Foster . . . I don't care, just put one of them in office. Just to say in two years we took Hastert and DeLay's seats is enough for me, and it should be for everyone else here as well. I'l be honest as an outside objector, it looks like Foster has his game better organized and could work the voters better to come out in the Special.

IN-07 - Carson, eh? Expect results similar to MA-05, if not a little closer.

LA-06 - Toss up. We got a grade A Dem running (even if he is conservative, but so is the district, remember, they are representatives of their district, not the democratic base in the North East). The Rs still have not announced a candidate. We might get this one, which I hope would motivate some strong challenges in LA-04 (open) and LA-07 (please come back Chris John!) in the 2008 general.

PA-06 Likely Republican.  

Kerry won this district 51-48 in 2004.  The district includes chuncks of Montgomery, Berks, Chester, and a sliver of Lehigh County.  

Gerlach's base is Chester County, an area he represented in the Legislature from 1991-2003.  Murphy's base was Montgomery County, which gave her a 12,000 plus paper majority, but not enough to offset the swing area of the district, Berks County.  Attorney Mark Liebowitz is from Montco, Bob Roggio is from Chesco.

The problem is neither Democratic candidate has much name recognition, which is key in a House race, also it is very expensive to advertise in the Philadelphia market area.  Murphy had raised and spent over $4 million in 2006, something neither Democratic hopeful is likely to come close to raising especially so late in the game. (Murphy starting running since early 2005 and ran in the 2003-2004 cycle too).  

There is one hope though:  If the Democratic Presidential nominee is able to win PA-06 by a margin of 55-45 (which is very possible, given the climate in Pennsylvania and nationally) or more, then it is possible that the Democratic Congressional nominee may ride those coattails to office.  However this area of Pennsylvania is known for ticket splitting, so do not hold your breath on it and this did not work in 2002, 2004, and 2006.

I think the DCCC has given up on PA-06 for three reasons:

1.  The district is very expensive to run a race in, as previously mentioned Murphy raised $4 million in 2006, an enormous amount (Gerlach had $3.4 million).
   
2.  Gerlach has won three tight races before, all in Democratic Wave elections; 2002 Rendell for Governor winning over 68% of the vote in the district, Kerry in 2004, and Rendell and Casey in 2006 with Rendell winning over 72% in the district and Casey something like 65%.
   
3.  Similar to reason 1, many national Democrats believe money should be spent shoring up vulnerable Dems like Chris Carney, Jason Altmire, Nancy Boyda (I know she says no to DCCC money), Nick Lampson, Steve Kagen, et al rather than pouring it into PA-06 and losing again.

Of course nothing is perfect in politics, one of the reasons Gerlach won in 2004 and 2006 is that he ran execellent campaigns and ran scared.  Campaigns matter and this is why Gerlach narrowly survived.  One of the reasons Gerlach only got 51% in 2002 in a district drawn for him ("the Gerlach district") is because he ran a very poor campaign against Dan Wofford.

So if he takes it easy in 2008, it is possible to beat him, but I doubt he will not run hard given the Democratic lean of his district.

Berks and a huge victory in Montco is the key to victory.

Here is how the counties broke down according to CNN http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006//pages/ results/states/PA/H/06/county.000.html

Berks

Gerlach 36,060 54%
Murphy  30,262 46%

Chester

Gerlach 52,340 55%
Murphy  43,090 45%

Lehigh

Gerlach  554 60%
Murphy   371 40%

Montgomery

Murphy  42,083 59%
Gerlach 29,853 41%