MyDD :: A Tremendous Loss for John McCain

A Tremendous Loss for John McCain

by Jonathan Singer, Wed Jan 16, 2008 at 01:11:59 AM EST

Just when he thought he was back in, Michiganders pulled McCain right out.

The Republican establishment and the Beltway media were pushing John McCain really hard, both in the lead up to and aftermath of the New Hampshire primaries, perhaps even putting him over the top in that contest. The presumption was that once the ball got rolling for McCain, who was the early favorite for the GOP nomination (just like Bob Dole before him in 1996 and George H. W. Bush before Dole in 1988), the Republican Party faithful would fall in line behind the old man of the party. Michigan, which McCain had won easily in 2000 and was assumed to be fertile ground for his candidacy because of the open rules allowing independents and Democrats to vote in the Republican primary (the effect of which would only be heightened by the lack of a real race on the Democratic side), would keep the ball rolling towards South Carolina with its big veteran population, and from there momentum would be able to propel McCain to the nomination. But it was not to be.

McCain lost to Mitt Romney by 9 points. According to exit polling, not only did Republicans not support McCain, but the Arizonan trumpeted by the establishment media as a "straight talker" with crossover appeal failed to get either Democrats or independents to vote for him (non-Republicans made up significantly less of the GOP electorate this year than they did in 2000). So on top of getting shut down by the GOP base, McCain's claim to be more electable than other candidates or to have more support among independents was seriously undercut.

For the life of me I still can't figure out exactly who the Republican nominee is going to be (though I'm not the only one a bit stumped at this juncture). In fact it still could be McCain. But I wouldn't put any money on him right now -- and certainly wouldn't go under the assumption that many have that he still could pull independents away from the Democratic Party in a general election.

Tags: John McCain, Republican Primaries, 2008 (all tags)

Permalink :: 35 Comments :: Post a Comment

maybe we dodged that bullet (none / 0)

after all. i certainly thought so last summer, and have watched with a sinking feeling as mcCain seemed to be rising.

We need Huckabee and Thompson to finish off mcCain in SC. if he does poorly there, he has little to fall back on for February 5.

Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.

by desmoinesdem on Wed Jan 16, 2008 at 01:15:13 AM EST

Re: maybe we dodged that bullet (none / 0)

It is amazing how much fear McCain stimulates in the Democrats. No wonder. If it came down to McCain and Hillary, I can only wonder what they will be debating about, since they don't seem far off on many issues.

It will be Republican versus Republican Lite.

Click on Peace, Propaganda, & The Promised Land and learn the truth about the I/P conflict.

by shergald on Wed Jan 16, 2008 at 08:30:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: maybe we dodged that bullet (none / 0)

When you say there is little difference between McCain and Hillary you come across as someone who doesn't know very much about politics, frankly.

I could give you a long, long list of important differences but I'm not even going to bother.

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Wed Jan 16, 2008 at 09:24:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

No Difference Btw Hillary & McCain (none / 0)

With all due respect, what kind of koolaid are you drinking? How about:
--Supreme Court
--women's rights/abortion rights
--Iraq forever
--universal healthcare coverage
--support for extending tax cuts for billionaires (McCain)
Need I go on?

by borlov on Wed Jan 16, 2008 at 11:57:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: maybe we dodged that bullet (none / 0)

mccain would beat hillary very handily.

by highgrade on Wed Jan 16, 2008 at 06:56:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Tremendous Loss for John McCain (none / 0)

is it possible that rudy actually can work a miracle and resurrect himself with florida??

by bluedavid on Wed Jan 16, 2008 at 01:18:23 AM EST

Re: A Tremendous Loss for John McCain (none / 0)

I think Edwards has a better chance of 'resurrecting' himself then Rudy.

Rudy lost without even competing.

Whomever come up with that strategy will never be a political operative again.

by kristoph on Wed Jan 16, 2008 at 02:45:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Tremendous Loss for John McCain (none / 0)

The thing is that Republican voters just don't like McCain all that much. Immigration, opposing the Bush tax cuts, campaign finance reform, all those "maverick" issues. Republicans are becoming more and more of an extremist party and they're looking for their Goldwater when they should be looking for an Eisenhower.

I asked my dad in Michigan if he felt McCain's comment that "those jobs aren't coming back" helped him or hurt him. He seemed to think there was some of each. "If people dealt in reality," he said, "they'd at least appreciate his honesty." I pointed out that if people dealt in reality they'd be voting Democratic.

Romney ran a very strong campaign in Michigan, focusing on his family background and ties to the state, conveying a very Michigan-specific message. There's really a sense in Michigan that they're suffering more than the rest of the country and Romney really managed to tap into that. While he undoubtedly tries the hardest to be all things to all people, it's not clear if this success will translate elsewhere.

One other thing I asked my dad, because I can't figure it out, is where the heck Romney's base comes from. I mean, we all know Huckabee wins the evangelicals, McCain does well with military types and moderates, but what's Romney's deal? My dad said he basically wins among people who can't stand any of the other Republican candidates. I dunno if there's any truth to that, but I'm not sure you can win the nomination via the "miscellaneous" vote!

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Wed Jan 16, 2008 at 01:25:38 AM EST

Re: A Tremendous Loss for John McCain (none / 0)

"I asked my dad in Michigan if he felt McCain's comment that "those jobs aren't coming back" helped him or hurt him. He seemed to think there was some of each. "If people dealt in reality," he said, "they'd at least appreciate his honesty." I pointed out that if people dealt in reality they'd be voting Democratic."

My wife is from Michigan... You don't just tell Michiganders that manufacturing is dead and gone. Michigan IS manufacturing, without it, they are nothing.... there are no "new economy" jobs coming to Michigan... ever... Michiganders HAVE suffered... a lot! They DESERVE to get those manufacturing jobs back... it is what they do, they are good at it, and it is what makes Michigan, Michigan... Patting them on the head like McCain did, and saying, "It's OK, there will be 'new' jobs, someday, maybe..." was patronizing, dismissive, and insulting to the people that were the foundation of America's economy for so many years.

Romney hit the nail on the head, and McCain's straight talk was a joke on this issue.

Thanks,

Mike

by lordmikethegreat on Wed Jan 16, 2008 at 03:35:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]

They may deserve to get those jobs back (none / 0)

And I wish they would, but:
wish in one hand and shit in the other...you know the rest.

by Teaser on Wed Jan 16, 2008 at 09:23:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Tremendous Loss for John McCain (none / 0)

I think you can be as honest as you like with people, but at the end of the day they're looking for solutions.

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Wed Jan 16, 2008 at 09:27:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Agreed (none / 0)

A huge loss for McCain and it should be reported that way.

The fact of the matter is the Republican party is split in three: you have the inside the beltway, monied, secular, "compromise on immigration" establishment for McCain, the anti-immigration, big mormon money (combined with Romney's personal fortune), family values crowd for Romney, and the devout, midwestern/southerner, neo-religious (populist?) portion of the party for Huckabee.

It will be decided when one of them blinks, and drops out. As I see it, neither McCain nor Romney are going to blink and drop out. Thus, the deciding factor between the two may well turn out to be Huckabee...when he blinks and drops out...and throws his support to....McCain. (BTW: Romney is going to win Nevada.)

Grandpa Thompson is a wild card. If he drops out, Huckabee's chances improve markedly. If he stays in, particularly if he does reasonably well in SC, then it really hurts Huckabee.

by Demo37 on Wed Jan 16, 2008 at 01:26:51 AM EST

Re: A Tremendous Loss for John McCain (none / 0)

One of my favorite stories from tonight:

The Michigan Republican Party mistakenly sent out a news release Tuesday night congratulating John McCain for winning the state's GOP primary.

It quickly issued a second statement praising Mitt Romney for his win.

"Heading into tonight, this race was too close to call, so we prepared a release for either scenario," state GOP spokesman Bill Nowling said. "We simply pushed the wrong button."

The Associated Press named Romney the GOP winner when polls closed in Michigan's western Upper Peninsula at 9 p.m. EST.

The first GOP release went out just minutes later and stated, "In a close-fought victory, Senator John McCain succeeded again (in) the Michigan Republican primary, winning over a traditionally unpredictable voter base in Michigan."

Five minutes after that, the party sent a release that said, "In a close-fought victory, native son Governor Mitt Romney won an important contest here tonight."

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Wed Jan 16, 2008 at 01:49:10 AM EST

Re: A Tremendous Loss for John McCain (none / 0)

Isnt it ridiculous that there is very little spontaneity in politics? Even something as simple as a congratulatory press release was probably vetted a bunch of times.

by Pravin on Wed Jan 16, 2008 at 04:12:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Tremendous Loss for John McCain (none / 0)

It'll be Romney. Mitt and Hillary. Better to stumble at the beginning of a race than near the end, for both of them.

by robert ethan on Wed Jan 16, 2008 at 02:06:03 AM EST

I sure hope it's Romney (none / 0)

Any of our candidates would beat Romney badly. A lot of the social conservatives will stay home rather than vote for a flip-flopping Mormon from massachusetts.

Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.

by desmoinesdem on Wed Jan 16, 2008 at 02:24:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I sure hope it's Romney (none / 0)

McCain is too old. Plain and simple. You can change a lot of things, but not the passage of time. Huckabee is too whacky, and Guliani too distasteful. There is no one else.

by robert ethan on Wed Jan 16, 2008 at 02:33:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I sure hope it's Romney (none / 0)

It depends on SC. If McCain wins SC he may be able to pull it out.

I would not be surprised if we get a brokered convention and wind up with a McCain/Huckabee ticket.

by kristoph on Wed Jan 16, 2008 at 02:47:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I sure hope it's Romney (none / 0)

I wonder if Romney is only slightly ahead at the end if the other candidates would combine together to defeat him. Or would it be more likely they would get together to defeat Huckabee?

by Progressive America on Wed Jan 16, 2008 at 02:51:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I sure hope it's Romney (none / 0)

If it's Romney, the Democrat can propose whatever they want and still probably win. Let's hope.

by Progressive America on Wed Jan 16, 2008 at 02:49:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I sure hope it's Romney (none / 0)

Don't get cocky!... We all know that Romney is a chameleon... he is already changing his campaign to be more populist, and it looks to be much more potent than his previous panderings... He could be much more formidable than we think.

Thanks,

Mike

by lordmikethegreat on Wed Jan 16, 2008 at 03:38:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I sure hope it's Romney (none / 0)

Not that I condone the sort of campaigning that will happen (in fact some might say it will be reminiscent of Bush/Rove,)but if Romney is the nominee there is going to be all kinds of whisper campaigns about his mormonism. The bottom line is that it is still not considered a mainstream religion by most people. I don't see how this doesn't hurt him in the general if he somehow makes it through the primaries.

Oh Mammy Dear, we're all mad over here livin' in America

by JDF on Wed Jan 16, 2008 at 04:45:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Tremendous Loss for John McCain (none / 0)

David Gregory told Keith Olbermann that tonight was good for John McCain. Just like everything else, I guess.

by TeddySanFran on Wed Jan 16, 2008 at 03:01:04 AM EST

Joe Lieberman WAAAAAAH (none / 0)

There is a priceless photoshopped picture Firedoglake used in the past. It depicted Joe Lieberman crying like a lil baby. I wish I had that picture for this comment.

by Pravin on Wed Jan 16, 2008 at 04:19:31 AM EST

Re: A Tremendous Loss for John McCain (none / 0)

You Clinton supporters are whistling past the graveyard at your own risk.

John McCain will be the Republican nominee and he will defeat Hillary Clinton.

Support Obama NOW!

by JackBourassa on Wed Jan 16, 2008 at 07:03:01 AM EST

Re: A Tremendous Loss for John McCain (1.00 / 1)

He'll beat Obama too...Iraq is not going to deliver for us and McCain's experience will make Obama look like a child.

This from an Obama supporter.

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Wed Jan 16, 2008 at 07:44:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Defeatism (none / 0)

McCain is a hoax as a "moderate." He is a 90% straight-line right-winger.

So, I would NOT underestimate HRC's ability to play politics rough and drive home that message.

Furthermore, defeatism is not helpful.

Thank you.

by borlov on Wed Jan 16, 2008 at 12:03:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Tremendous Loss for John McCain (none / 0)

Romney equals a certain defeat for Republicans. They're stupid, but they're not THAT stupid.

You people are fooling yourselves because you know what everybody else knows, that John McCain is the only Republican with any chance of retaining the White House. Even Guiliani will get slaughtered. According to recent polls, McCain slaughters Hillary among independents. I don't know how we will win anything if we lose the independents. I mean in Michigan Hillary lost the independents essentially to nobody, that's how popular she is with them. Anybody but Clinton, that's the story out of Michigan for us Democrats. A lot of Democrats have been going around talking like winning in 2008 was a certainty. You guys don't realize that McCain polls better against Hillary now, then Bush did against Kerry during a comparable period in 2004.

Michigan is Romney's home state, why are you guys spinning this as a great defeat for McCain? No one but you guys sees it that way.

I find this thread very strange. Who are you guys trying to convince here? Yourselves?

Do you guys honestly think that Romney will win in South Carolina? McCain will win it there. Then what? McCain will win the west, including California and Texas (the two largest states in America). He will win the majority of states on super Tuesday. He will win all the Republican super-delegates. He WILL be the nominee.

So please, stop fooling yourselves. Let's prepare for McCain as Republican nominee. Any other choice would be completely irrational for the Republicans.

by JackBourassa on Wed Jan 16, 2008 at 07:15:17 AM EST

Re: A Tremendous Loss for John McCain (none / 0)

McCain is going to have a lot of problems in closed primaries because he's just not that popular with partisan Republicans.

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Wed Jan 16, 2008 at 09:29:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Tremendous Loss for John McCain (1.00 / 1)

Keep thinking that. In fact, you should also click your heels three times.

Hey, it worked for Dorothy.

McCain will be the Republican nominee. You must accept that. No amount of dreaming will change that fact.

by JackBourassa on Wed Jan 16, 2008 at 12:09:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Tremendous Loss for John McCain (none / 0)

Again, I feel compelled to point out how tragic it is that on the Internet there's no accountability for incorrect predictions. You can claim to know anything with absolute certainty, because what's the downside?

If you think McCain is popular with partisan Republicans then you don't follow politics very closely.

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Wed Jan 16, 2008 at 12:12:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Tremendous Loss for John McCain (none / 0)

Steve,

He's popular enough. He can win the general...that's why he'll win the nomination. I won't win any prize if this comes true, or self-destruct if it doesn't. It's just what I think will happen. We'll know in a couple of weeks if i'm right.

But keep dreaming. I can't believe how much of Clinton's chances, to her supporters, depend on hope and a prayer.

Not exactly the most encouraging thing if you ask me given the certainty many seem to have of our retaking the White House in November.

by JackBourassa on Wed Jan 16, 2008 at 05:08:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Tremendous Loss for John McCain (none / 0)

In this economic environment, saying you will just prop up Alan Greenspan's corpse is not going to cut it as an economic policy. This is McCain's fatal flaw.

by Bob H on Wed Jan 16, 2008 at 07:16:37 AM EST

Re: A Tremendous Loss for John McCain (none / 0)

As long as Thompson doesn't win the vote in SC I'm cool with McCain. Although I'm not a fan of him wanting to send many more troops into Iraq. I smell the draft if this man gets elected. Maybe I feel this way just because I am 23 and a free spirit, but being forced into war isn't something I aspire from life. I have more ideas of Fred Thompson, at www.purplestates.tv. My names Elizabeth, and I am a citizen journalist.

Elizabeth Gotsdiner

by Elizabeth Gotsdiner on Wed Jan 16, 2008 at 09:07:37 AM EST

Re: A Tremendous Loss for John McCain (none / 0)

Oh, and the early Michigan release of "McCain Wins" is a little reminiscent of that Dewey Truman mix up.

Elizabeth Gotsdiner

by Elizabeth Gotsdiner on Wed Jan 16, 2008 at 09:11:07 AM EST

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