Final MI Tracking Poll Confirms Romney Momentum Going Into Today's Vote

Following up on my post from yesterday, the final Mitchell Interactive tracking poll out of Michigan (589 LVs, 1/12-14, MOE +/- 4%) shows Mitt Romney continuing to extend his lead over John McCain in today's primary election to 6 points, a 12-point swing since McCain's win in New Hampshire.

Candidate1/12-141/10, 1/12-131/9-10, 1/121/9-10
Romney35292117
McCain29272223
Huckabee12121211

Much as we saw with Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire, extrapolating the tracking poll's rolling average, Mitt Romney appears to have had particularly strong Monday numbers. From Steve Mitchell, president of Mitchell Interactive:

"As the undecided voters make up their minds, more are turning to Mitt Romney than to John McCain. We have also seen the participation among Republicans increase to 80% at the end of phoning tonight. That means that 80% of the voters taking part in the GOP primary identify themselves as Republicans."

While 80% seems high to me, Steve Mitchell does have a reputation for correctly predicting Michigan primary results, from Mitchell's own press release:

Steve Mitchell has been the most accurate pollster in Michigan in the last four presidential campaigns.  Polling for the Detroit News in the 2000 MI GOP Primary, his final polling correctly had John McCain winning over George W. Bush.  Polling again for the Detroit News in the 2004 MI Dem Primary, his final polling correctly showed the top four candidates in the order they finished and had John Kerry at 52%, his final margin.

I'm prepared to predict Romney will win Michigan by single digits, but hey, that doesn't mean all you Democrats For Romney should sit today out.

Get out there (polls open at 7am and close at 8pm) and deliver one for Willard today.

Update [2008-1-15 13:17:26 by Todd Beeton]:Zogby has Romney up 2 since yesterday's tracking poll with McCain staying put but still with a slight lead. John Zogby elaborates (h/t TPM):

Our final track, to be exact, in Michigan is McCain 27.1% to Romney’s 25.6% and Huckabee at 14.9%. Our call center made 553 calls just on Monday to get as close a read on this as late as we could. Monday alone stood at Romney 26.7% to McCain’s 26.3%.

Can't find what Zogby predicts will be the percentage of GOP primary voters that are Republicans, which is looking to be the decisive factor in today's primary.



Display:


Re: Final MI Tracking Poll Confirms (none / 0)

The McCain spin: Romney couldn't win by more than a few points in his own home state. After SC, McCain gain the money and support to go on to the nomination. It is now inevitable.


Click on Peace, Propaganda, & The Promised Land and learn the truth about the I/P conflict.
by shergald on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 07:52:48 AM EST

Re: Final MI Tracking Poll Confirms Romney Momentu (none / 0)

As i said a week ago, and Kos stated 6 days ago, dems should crossover and vote for Mitt. Because a Mitt win means only more presidential selection turmoil for the GOP.


by nzubechukwu on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 08:55:14 AM EST

Re: Final MI Tracking Poll Confirms Romney Momentu (none / 0)

That simply is not true.

One tried and true republican election strategy  is to lead (bowl --set them up, knock them down) their opponents to a smug feeling of overconfidence, in regard to winning. And while Democrats are so focused on their bubble induced amateur political machinations,(cross over! vote Romney! democrats can't lose!) republicans slowly chip away at that huge democratic lead, exploiting their opponents weak points as perceived by the public, creeping surreptitiously,  doing the unthinkable, in this case, say, electing Romney as President.

And then when we lose, we finger point, say, blaming Kerry for not coming back against the swift boaters, unable to see the forest through the trees. Analyze the elections of Reagan, Bush and Bush, jr, and you will see the basic strategy.

Leave the Karl Rove like political maneuvers to Karl Rove, who is a master at manipulating and trapping the political novice. Rove like moves really do hurt our country, our political process. The goal is to defeat the Roves, while strengthening the American democratic political infrastructure.

Play smart, tell the American people the truth, while recognizing, and countering RNC moves. Rove really isn't that smart. Clinton and Edwards are prepared, I believe, Obama is not, as he's trying to fight fire with fire.

Chaos, confusion, obfuscation, fear, doubt, and uncertainty are enough to turn a voter republican. Don't feed it by endorsing the unethical, or being caught unaware. By not panicking or playing Rove's game, you induce chaos within their system, as evidenced by the failure of the Bush/Cheney administration.


by Marsha1 on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 09:32:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Romney Momentum Going Into Today's Vote (none / 0)

Romney could win Michigan, Huckabee South Carolina, Giuliani Florida... man... brokered convention folks!


The sharpest criticism often goes hand in hand with the deepest idealism and love of country. ~RFK
by Vox Populi on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 11:05:55 AM EST

Re: Romney Momentum Going Into Today's Vote (none / 0)

Giuliani is now behind McCain in FL and only a point or so ahead of both Huck and Romney.  If those two guys take SC and MI respectively, Jules could easily finish 4th in FL.  He is now also losing NJ and only 3 points up in NY.

Stick a fork in him...


NJ Hussein Independent
by NJIndependent on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 11:35:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Romney Momentum Going Into Today's Vote (none / 0)

Even better, Fred Thompson somehow manages to win in South Carolina!


by conspiracy on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 11:56:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Romney Momentum Going Into Today's Vote (none / 0)

That would be a treat.


The sharpest criticism often goes hand in hand with the deepest idealism and love of country. ~RFK
by Vox Populi on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 12:46:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

thoughts (none / 0)

if romney loses it would appear he's gone. I wonder to what extent we'll see the voters swong away from mccain b/c they feel the media is forcing him down their throats. I think that happened w/ obama in NH.


by highgrade on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 11:11:18 AM EST

Re: Final MI Tracking Poll (none / 0)

Did McCain make a mistake by telling Michigan workers that the good jobs are not coming back? Just what did he have to say about replacing them? Oh, yes. Education. But what is it that you educate Blue Collar workers to do? The White Collars are going in the tubes as well.

And McDonalds is loaded up with cooks as it is. No, McCain's honesty but lack of solutions is his downfall.

Michigan will again go to the Democrats in 2008.


Click on Peace, Propaganda, & The Promised Land and learn the truth about the I/P conflict.
by shergald on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 12:47:40 PM EST


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