Michigan Election Results Thread - ROMNEY WINS

Romney 39 percent
McCain 30 percent
Huckabee 16 percent
Paul 6 percent
Thompson 4 percent
Giuliani 3 percent

Clinton 58 percent
Uncommitted 36 percent
Kucinich 4 percent

58% of precincts reporting (per CNN.com)

Update [2008-1-15 21:3:26 by Todd Beeton]:Wow, that was fast. NBC has called it for Romney. And the clusterfuck continues!

Update [2008-1-15 21:11:49 by Jerome Armstrong]: At above 60 percent, Clinton blows away the expectations in Michigan; with a majority of Democrats supporting her candidacy-- breaking the majority being a big psychological barrier/boost.

Also, within the memo that the Clinton campaign sent out today, responding to Obama's that MI & FL should be ignored by the media, the Clinton campaign confirmed that they intend to count the delegates from Michigan & Florida:

...the Obama campaign had no problems when its supporters and allies in Michigan ran radio ads and other campaign activities urging people to vote for "uncommitted" as a way to register their support for Senator Obama -- and to give him a chance to compete for those delegates at the national convention... Now, with polls in recent days showing that effort and their candidate running far behind in both states, the Obama campaign has shifted tactics to say that those who cast a vote in either state don't matter. We couldn't disagree more.
Update [2008-1-15 21:57:41 by Todd Beeton]:Clinton slips nelow 60% for the first time. Do I sense a late Uncommitted surge?

Update [2008-1-16 1:0:44 by Jerome Armstrong]: At 55% for Clinton, besting expectations, the soft count of delegates for Clinton is on TheGreenPapers.



Display:


Re: Michigan Election Results Thread (none / 0)

This will give Romney a tiny bounce, maybe undetectable, but might encourage him to stay in all the way and try to play some kind of a "kingmaker" role at the RNC convention.

He's invested millions, and probably doesn't want to go to the convention empty-handed.

Who does this help?  Maybe nobody in the GOP field.  It might increase the likelihood of a brokered convention, though.


by enthusiast on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 08:46:53 PM EST

Kingmaker? (none / 0)

Romney has done better than any other candidate so far, which is why he has earned more delegates than anyone so far. Two silvers and a gold (in the major primaries) is better than 1 silver, one gold and a finish behind Fred Thompson (McCain) and one gold and a bronze (Huckabee). The press has spun McCain's lackluster performance into momentum because they love him, but it remains to be seen whether the anti-mexican faction of the Republican Party will support someone who voted with the Dems on Immigration reform.

keith


by keith johnson on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 11:26:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Michigan Election Results Thread (none / 0)

If Hillary gets close to 60%, or more, she will get a bounce, a tiny bounce, but a bounce nonetheless, and she will have a bunch of delegates at the convention to lobby for her, even if they are not formally "seated."


by enthusiast on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 08:48:59 PM EST

Re: Michigan Election Results Thread (none / 0)

Apparently Not Clinton is winning among African Americans in Michigan:

According to the Fox exit polls, in the Democratic primary tonight, Clinton took 25% of the African-American vote and "uncommitted" is getting 69% of the African-American vote. Now remember, Hillary is only major candidate on the ballot.

Chris Bowers says:

If he can trounce Clinton among African-Americans without even being on the ballot, it seems that Obama has solidified African-Americans behind him nationwide. If, as Matt suggested yesterday, he can secure the white liberal vote, that would be a winning coalition in the Democratic primary nationwide. It would also be a repetition of his coalition in the Illinois Senate primary four years ago.


by Kal on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 08:50:59 PM EST

Re: Michigan Election Results Thread (none / 0)

25% of us is enough for my girl!


by Zeitgeist9000 on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 08:52:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Michigan Election Results Thread (none / 0)

The problem is that this coalition is about 40% of the vote or less nationwide. That statement is beyond clueless.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 08:56:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Michigan Election Results Thread (none / 0)

What statement? Your statement implying that the African-American vote is worthless? I'd call that pretty clueless.


by Kal on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 08:57:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Michigan Election Results Thread (none / 0)

No, I'm saying that that combination is NOT a winning combination. It's the Jesse Jackson coaltion that isn't enough to win the primary.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 08:59:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Michigan Election Results Thread (none / 0)

I would counter by saying that Obama is a lot more popular among white voters than Jackson ever was. See Obama's victory in Iowa and his second place finish in New Hampshire.


by Kal on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 09:02:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Michigan Election Results Thread (none / 0)

His demographics in NH showed that he appeals to college students and their professors. He got killed in working class towns and the rural areas by both Edwards and Clinton. I think in Manchester Hillary got something like 7 votes to Obama's 1.

DHinMI did a whole post on it at Kos if you want to look it up.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 09:06:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Michigan Election Results Thread (none / 0)

You ignore Iowa. I believe that Iowa conclusively proves that Obama can win among white voters. And these are two states with virtually no minority voters. Imagine how well Obama can do once his "strong supporters" get to vote.


by Kal on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 09:12:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Michigan Election Results Thread (none / 0)

IA was a caucus. Cling to that if you want to but when it comes down to people actually getting off their duff and voting, Obama didn't win in those categories. And the reason he even came close was because there are more of those types in NH than other states. Look at MI. He got blown away. Look at the FL numbers, he's getting blown away. Look at the CA numbers, he's getting blown away.

Apparently he tried to get people to vote for him in MI and his supporters did. There just apparently aren't enough of them in lots of states. I guess they are clustered.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 09:18:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Michigan Election Results Thread (none / 0)

Look at MI. He got blown away. Look at the FL numbers, he's getting blown away. Look at the CA numbers, he's getting blown away.

If you're seriously citing Michigan and primaries that haven't happened yet, you're really reaching.


by Kal on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 09:42:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Michigan Election Results Thread (none / 0)

I'm citing polls that show Obama getting blown away. And even the Obama camp is conceding FL before they've even had a primary.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 09:49:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Michigan Election Results Thread (none / 0)

Because, of course, possible victories in Nevada and South Carolina will have no impact on future primaries.

Like I said, you're reaching here.


by Kal on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 09:52:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Michigan Election Results Thread (none / 0)

We have seen the major bounce Obama got out of Iowa (hint: in the end the bounce did not materialize) and I see no reason for NV and SC (if Obama were to win both) to completely turn around 20% polling in FL and other states.  It is just unrealistic.  More likely is that Obama and Edwards are already trying to assess what political damage they would cause (and whether the pros outweigh the cons) if they pull out of Florida completely at this late date.  


by georgep on Wed Jan 16, 2008 at 12:08:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Michigan Election Results Thread (none / 0)

I was in Iowa- Obama lives in the next state.  With the bad weather I couldn't get out for two days- Obama's people had no problem driving in their cars.  The Obama machine had their people living in apartments in the small towns for an entire year.  Mississippi and Iowa are the only two states to have never elected a woman to higher office- no congressmen, no senator and no governor- no surprise that Hillary Clinton didn't do well there.


Experience Counts-Hillary 08!
by ExperienceCounts on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 09:54:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Michigan Election Results Thread (none / 0)

HRC might get enough of a boost this week to pull ahead in NV on Saturday.


by enthusiast on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 09:00:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Michigan Election Results Thread (none / 0)

I don't think he'll win GA. Jesse Jackson didn't win GA. Unless Edwards wins a primary, all his voters will go to Hillary giving her a boost. An Obama/Hillary contest here in GA would probably be about 60 Hillary and 40 Obama.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 09:04:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Michigan Election Results Thread (none / 0)

So if women dislike racially-charged politics, how do you explain a majority of them voting for Clinton?


by Kal on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 08:56:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Michigan Election Results Thread (none / 0)

I don't know if that's necessarily a primary redo...

I don't have the breakdowns, but I'm pretty sure that Obama got 27% downstate, which doesn't sound impressive until you remember it WAS a 7 way primary (with at least 4 quite viable candidates) -- especially for a Chicago based candidate.   Obama really worked the whole state hard in 2004.  

Keyes replacing Ryan turned it into a laugher, but I think even without the collapsing IL GOP, even without the party deciding to just kill off the Schafly wing -- I think it would have been a tough race for any opponent.

Don't get me wrong - Obama didn't win downstate, but I think virtually any IL poli-watcher would say he over-performed -- certainly in the primary, perhaps even in the general election (even after all things considered).


by zonk on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 08:57:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Michigan Election Results Thread (none / 0)

The IL senate race means nothing. His opponent imploded, Ryan pulled out and he ran against a joke who wasn't even from the state. How many Republicans just sat home on that one. IL wasn't going to go for Bush anyway.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 09:02:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Michigan Election Results Thread (none / 0)

I'm talking more about the primary than the GE.

I don't disagree that the GE was a joke (read the whole comment, fer the love of pete)... it was a calculated move by the IL GOP to kill off the wingnut wing by saying "here - we'll give you your nutjob.... now watch him lose by 30 points".

The primary WAS a tough race - every Dem with any dreams of higher office jumped in... Obama was a fairly distant 3rd.  Millionaire Blair Hull had some personal issues, but Dan Hynes was the favorite through most of 2003.

Obama wasn't the "default" winner of the primary -- he won the primary... I was a Hull backer at first -- if only because I didn't want the machinist -- Dan Hynes -- to win.

I met a bunch of Obama supporters via Dean meet-ups... they convinced me he had a chance... the rest was history.


by zonk on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 09:10:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Michigan Election Results Thread (none / 0)

Didn't one of his opponents implode iirc sot that allowed Obama to win? I understand it was perhaps tough up until then.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 09:20:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Michigan Election Results Thread (none / 0)

Yes- Blair Hull.

He was the millionaire who dumped a ton of his own money into the race... He passed Dan Hynes in most polls in late fall - but then imploded when reports of spousal abuse came out.  His wife and whole family did back him up, however.

Hynes led most of the primary throughout 2003 (basically until Blair Hull began blanketing TV and radio).

Hull did end up winning about 7 counties... Hynes won more counties than Obama -- but Obama clobbered him in Chicago (home base for both). He didn't win downstate - but he certainly didn't get clobbered to the extent Hynes did in Chicago.  


by zonk on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 09:27:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Michigan Election Results Thread (none / 0)

You are right.  Nobody took Alan Keyes seriously, not even Republicans.  Then Keyes made some major, major mistakes during the campaign....


by georgep on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 09:11:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Michigan Election Results Thread (none / 0)

reading. comprehension. please.


by zonk on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 09:13:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Michigan Election Results Thread (none / 0)

Let's go Uncommitted (on the Republican side)! Beat Guiliani for 6th place!


by Progressive America on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 08:53:20 PM EST

Re: Michigan Election Results Thread (none / 0)

Fox News? Obama has gotten 30-40 and Edwards around 15-20% in the first two states and they make a big deal about a 30-35% uncommitted vote?


by ND1979 on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 08:55:26 PM EST

HIllary and Mitt neck and neck... (none / 0)

...Just looking at the vote count on CNN;

Hillary - 26,024

Mitt Romney - 26,192


by andrewalker08 on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 08:56:32 PM EST

Re: HIllary and Mitt neck and neck... (none / 0)

if it was contested among the candidates, turnout would be higher.


vote blue in 2008
by sepulvedaj3 on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 08:59:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Ron Paul beats Giuliani (none / 0)

Paul would seem to have earned the right to remain in the GOP debates as long as Giuliani is invited to do so.


by enthusiast on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 08:57:05 PM EST

Huge Win For Clinton! (none / 0)

Wow.  Clinton rocked!


by BigBoyBlue on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 09:00:16 PM EST

Re: Huge Win For Clinton! (none / 0)

She did pretty well, beating the low expectations of 50% or thereabouts.


by enthusiast on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 09:02:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Michigan Election Results Thread (none / 0)

Olbermann calls it for Romney.

Atta boy, Kos!


by Kal on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 09:00:40 PM EST

Re: Michigan Election Results Thread (none / 0)

NBC calls it for Romney! YEEEAH


by animated on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 09:00:56 PM EST

Re: Michigan Election Results Thread (none / 0)

Romney wins, Clinton picks up a ton of delegates.


by Jerome Armstrong on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 09:02:22 PM EST

Re: Michigan Election Results Thread (none / 0)

Where does Clinton win delegates that will actually make a difference at the convention?


by Kal on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 09:04:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Michigan Election Results Thread (none / 0)

They will make a difference.  She's likely to end up with 70 delegates, and those 70 people will make a difference, regardless of what skeptics may think right now.


by enthusiast on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 09:06:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Michigan Election Results Thread (none / 0)

How so? Please explain.

There are two outcomes:

1) The campaign goes to the convention, Obama is slightly ahead, and those delegates could swing the nomination to Clinton. The delegates from Michigan will not be seated.

2) The campaign is over long before the convention. Obama or Clinton are far ahead and have the nomination secured. The delegates from Michigan will be seated.

Anyone who sees any other outcome is not living in the reality-based world.


by Kal on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 09:09:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Michigan Election Results Thread (none / 0)

If HRC is far enough ahead, the Michigan and Florida delegates will be seated, and the convention will unify behind her more quickly, which will be beneficial to the party, and to all of us.


by enthusiast on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 09:12:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Michigan Election Results Thread (none / 0)

So you agree with me that the Michigan delegates will never make a difference at the convention.

I'm glad you see my point.


by Kal on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 09:13:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Michigan Election Results Thread (none / 0)

You can't be serious that 70 Democratic delegates from Michigan will be ignored at the convention.


by enthusiast on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 09:20:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Michigan Election Results Thread (none / 0)

If counting those delegates would give Clinton the nomination over Obama, of course the DNC will stick by their ruling. Could you imagine the DNC denying Obama the nomination because they changed the rules again? Talk about screwing over the African-American voters!

The only way Michigan's delegates will be seated is if either Obama or Clinton have the nomination wrapped up before the convention. If they could make a difference, they won't be seated, as the DNC doesn't want to alienate their base by fixing the election.


by Kal on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 09:35:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Michigan Election Results Thread (none / 0)

It looks good on paper.  Clinton overperformed previous estimates again, which will give her a small boost (even though MI does not count nominally at this point.)  That could be enough to put her over the top in NV.  Stupid, stupid move by Obama/Edwards.  


by georgep on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 10:00:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Michigan Election Results Thread (none / 0)

I doubt this primary will give her any bump. I'll be shocked if there's any movement outside of the margin of error in Clinton's favor in the next few days.

If a primary happens, and there's no media coverage, then it didn't really happen.


by Kal on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 10:09:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Michigan Election Results Thread (none / 0)

But there IS media coverage.  Go to CNN.com, MSNBC.com, Foxnews, Realclearpolitics, etc.  I am sure the papers will carry the Democratic results as well.   The results are shown, and Clinton looks good.  It is not wall to wall coverage, but just the realization that Clinton won one will register more so whether delegates count or not.  I think she'll get a 2, 3% boost across the board from this, which could be enough to get her over the top in NV.


by georgep on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 11:52:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Michigan Election Results Thread (none / 0)

I've seen the delegate koolaid you've been touting-- dreamland.


by Jerome Armstrong on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 09:14:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Michigan Election Results Thread (none / 0)

Ditto


by Kal on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 09:15:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Michigan Election Results Thread - ROMNEY WINS (none / 0)

Good news for the Democratic party. Still crossing my fingers that Romney will be the nominee.


by Korha on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 09:07:22 PM EST

Who will deny Michigan their ballots? (none / 0)


by dpANDREWS on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 09:08:10 PM EST

Re: Michigan Election Results Thread (none / 0)

Looks like as many Democrats came out to this as did for the GOP.  That is quite amazing.  I think Democrats are stoked.  The results so far also appear to be a thumbing of their noses at Edwards and Obama for pulling out of Michigan in a display of political calcule that is an insult to the voters of Michigan.  Rarely have I seen a display of such cowardice from major candidates (given that the "principle" explanation does not wash, as Obama and Edwards decided to remain on the Florida ballot.)   I would not be surprised  if this apparent Clinton validation in Michigan ends up giving her a bounce and makes the difference in Nevada for a win.    


by georgep on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 09:08:38 PM EST

Re: Michigan Election Results Thread (none / 0)

True - it was a mistake for Obama and Edwards not to remain on the ballot.


by enthusiast on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 09:10:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Michigan Election Results Thread (none / 0)

Democrats voted for McCain, not Romney, so don't pat yourselves on the back. Republicans elected Romney.


Restore America's Strength.
by RJEvans on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 09:15:59 PM EST

Re: Michigan Election Results Thread - ROMNEY WINS (none / 0)

Jerome,
Did the Obama campaign really send a directive to the media to tell them to ignore MI? If they did that's dumb. dumb. dumb.
No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 09:23:34 PM EST

Re: Michigan Election Results Thread - ROMNEY WINS (none / 0)

Yea, FL too.


by Jerome Armstrong on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 09:27:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Michigan Election Results Thread - ROMNEY WINS (none / 0)

Looks like Obama still controls the media. I haven't really heard anything meaningful about the Democrats' (meaningless) primary in Michigan.


by Kal on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 09:36:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Michigan Election Results Thread - ROMNEY WINS (none / 0)

Haven't watched TV then have you? Everytime they announce MI results they include Clinton.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 09:51:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Michigan Election Results Thread - ROMNEY WINS (none / 0)

Whenever I've heard about Michigan, the Democrats have gotten MAYBE a sentence devoted to "Clinton won a primary with no delegates and no one else on the ballot." Not a whole lot of coverage. Compared to Iowa and New Hampshire, Clinton's coverage is on page 28D.


by Kal on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 09:54:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Michigan Election ... - WILLARD WINS (none / 0)

Okay folks... please remember:

As long as Obama's middle name keeps being brought up, it's "Willard," not "Mitt."


by tilthouse on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 09:29:59 PM EST

Re: Michigan Election Results Thread - ROMNEY WINS (none / 0)

Romney's now got 2 golds and 2 silvers. I don't see how he fades away now.


by Jerome Armstrong on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 09:30:44 PM EST

Clinton "blows away expectations"? (none / 0)

Where did this come from? There were no expectations in MI. Seeing as how no one nationally is even paying attention to MI on the Democratic side, this is just more BS from Armstrong. Pathetic.


by Lawdawg on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 09:53:28 PM EST

Re: Clinton "blows away expectations"? (none / 0)

Agreed. Anything to prop up Clinton and a worthless primary.


by Kal on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 09:55:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton "blows away expectations"? (none / 0)

Kal, if MI is a throwaway for the Democrats, I'm wondering why you haunt a thread talking about a Primary that is of no consequence?

Okay.  MI is not important.  MSM is not talking about it.  So why continue to respond and refute every point?  It's not important, right?


by FilbertSF on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 10:10:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton "blows away expectations"? (2.00 / 1)

The primary's not important, but countering Jerome et al's propaganda is worth my time.

Jerome is hurting this blog with his constant detachment's from reality. I'm doing what I can to try to help MyDD.


by Kal on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 10:21:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton "blows away expectations"? (none / 0)

I agree. I would have ignored this thread entirely but for Armstrong's ridiculous update. Clinton won a state that has been stripped of its delegates. Bid deal.


by Lawdawg on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 10:33:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton "blows away expectations"? (none / 0)

You are not helping.  You appear to be trolling.  Why not say your piece one time, and if Jerome Armstrong is such a thorn in your hide (and object of a weird obsession) then why not just ignore his blog and go elsewhere?


by georgep on Wed Jan 16, 2008 at 12:02:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton "blows away expectations"? (none / 0)

Keep the flames to yourself, please.

I've been visiting this blog for years. I really like it here, especially the front-pagers and Breaking Blue. However, Jerome really taints this blog with his half-truths, poorly cited stories, and his weird obsession with Obama. I do what I can to help the blog be credible.


by Kal on Wed Jan 16, 2008 at 03:27:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Clinton Lost YOuth Vote (none / 0)

Clinton lost the youth vote, both 18 - 24 and 25 - 29 year olds, to "uncommitted."


Youth to Power
by Mike Connery on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 10:06:08 PM EST

Re: Clinton Lost YOuth Vote (none / 0)

Is that a surprise???


vote blue in 2008
by sepulvedaj3 on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 10:12:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Lost YOuth Vote (none / 0)

Actually yeah, considering she won the 25-29 vote in New Hampshire and turnout today was extremely depressed.


Youth to Power
by Mike Connery on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 10:14:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Michigan Election Results Thread - ROMNEY WINS (none / 0)

I'm sorry but if 50% is the weak ass expectation of the Clinton campaign in this primary, yeah she beats those expectations.  But jesus christ she is the only one on the ballot besides Kucinich, Dodd and Uncommitted.  A top tier candidate should be getting at least two thirds of the vote with no one else running.  I'm amazed that over 40% of the Democratic primary voters said No to  Hillary.


A great democracy must be progressive or it will soon cease to be a great democracy. - Teddy Roosevelt
by minvis on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 10:12:30 PM EST

Re: Michigan Election Results Thread - ROMNEY WINS (none / 0)

you are delusional.

Those are Obama and Edwards supporters making a point... they are still on their candidates side.


vote blue in 2008
by sepulvedaj3 on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 10:13:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

"Uncommitted" currently at 37% (none / 0)

That is the real story here. Over a third of Democratic voters braved bad weather and went into the booth to vote for "uncommitted" instead of Clinton.  That is remarkable. 3 out of 4 AAs who did so said they would have voted for Obama. Could "uncommitted" get to 40%?  


by Lawdawg on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 10:15:54 PM EST

Re: Michigan Election Results Thread - ROMNEY WINS (none / 0)

Uncommitted is an expression of the actual hard support of Obama and Edwards (and richardson, dodd, Biden etc). If HRC can get a Majority over all the rest, i'd say that is an accomplishment, also considering there wasnt a large GOTV effort in Michigan.


vote blue in 2008
by sepulvedaj3 on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 10:20:02 PM EST

Re: Michigan Election Results Thread - ROMNEY WINS (none / 0)

With all do respect, it is quite different to go to the polls to vote for your candidate as opposed to taking the time to go to the polls to vote for "uncommitted."  My responses to this thread are mainly a reaction to Armstrong's silly assertion that this is some unexpected margin for Clinton.  Any of the three major Dems would have received a majority of the votes if running unopposed. The "uncommitted" vote is clearly a vote against Clinton. I am surprised it is as large as it is quite frankly.


by Lawdawg on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 10:29:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

well to each their own (none / 0)

Why is it much different? This has been one of the greatest elections for democrats in the primaries in a LONG time.  Records are being broken all the time, and people are passionate about who they support.  Obama has pushed forward A LOT of people to get involved and speak their voice. People are going out to vote.


vote blue in 2008
by sepulvedaj3 on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 10:34:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: well to each their own (none / 0)

We can agree to disagree. I agree that Democrats are energized.  I just think that with bad weather in MI today (or so I've heard) I think deciding to go to the polls to vote uncommitted is more an anti-Clinton vote than a pro-other candidate vote. I find it hard to believe that Edwards or Obama would not have received just as many or more votes than Clinton if running unopposed in MI.


by Lawdawg on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 10:43:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: well to each their own (none / 0)

You obviously missed that there WAS a concerted effort (even radio ads) for the "uncommitted" vote to come out in force.  I see, frankly, no justification for your contention that any of the other candidates, running unopposed, would have had the exact same showing.  That seems like Kool-aided stuff.  Edwards had about 8%, 10% in every poll we have seen.  Yet, he would have pulled in 53%?  Seems impossible.  I guess you just want to make Clinton's showing look as bad as possible, which is your right, but when logic falls by the wayside in the process, it isn't necessarily a pretty pic.


by georgep on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 11:58:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Michigan Election Results Thread - ROMNEY WINS (none / 0)

My two cents:

The takeaway, if there is any (and I think there isn't) is what TPM pointed to:  the exit poll #s among AAs.  They went to the poll by a large margin to vote for literally no one rather than a Democratic front runner.

We can talk about it being a concerted effort by Edwards or Obama surrogates, but I'm sorry -- I don't see how 38% of the Dem. Party were led to the polls to vote "uncommitted" by the Edwards and Obama forces when neither had field personnel or $ devoted to the task of getting them to vote for no one.

It is about defining narrative at this point.  The HRC campaign can tout a victory over no one in particular, because that's all they can do.  Everyone else will point to this:  1)  to the extent delegates will come out of this farce, it will do so after the nomination process has been decided, and 2)  the exit polling.

58-37% in a low-turnout election in which few resources or attention were expended by anyone is not a victory or defeat or anything.  

Some I have heard on this forum appear to be put more effort in emphasizing this and FL in which no delegates are at stake and de-emphasizing NV and SC in which media focus and delegates are definitely at stake.  Because of the proportional representation system and the fact that the papers will print delegate counts of primary/caucuses sanctioned by the D party, I'd rather have delegates right now, thanks.


by ChrisR on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 11:10:00 PM EST

Re: Michigan Election Results Thread - ROMNEY WINS (none / 0)

Are you from Michigan?  Because I can assure you that every person who voted "uncommitted" knew exactly who they were voting for.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 11:22:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

CNN is showing 0 Delegates at stake Michigan (none / 0)

NYT says "to be decided" with no number even footnoted.

(Jerome disagrees, I know.)

Uncommitted will get 41% of the vote; Clinton 54%.


by commissar on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 11:46:10 PM EST

Any actual Michigan Democratic delegate counts? (none / 0)

In order for the Clinton campaign, Jerome, or the MyDD delegate tracker to count the Michigan delegates, the numbers have to be available. Can anyone find any media source that has delegate results out of tonights primary?


Matt - DemConWatch
by msn1 on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 11:49:58 PM EST


You are not logged in.

In order to post a comment, you must be logged in. If you have a member account, please log in to comment.

If not, you can make an account right here. It's quick and free.