CA & Fl Poll

CNN/LA Times/Politico (via email) commissioned a poll by Opinion Research Corporation of CA Democratic voters ahead of the critical Feb 5th contest (5% MOE):

Democrats

Clinton            47%
Obama              31%
Edwards            10%


Republicans

McCain                20%
Romney                16%
Giuliani              14%
Huckabee              13%
Paul                   8%
Thompson               6%
Those votes which are solidified are exact opposite on the parties. About 62% of Democrats are solid, and about 61% of Republicans might vote for someone else.

Clinton's lead is pretty strong; coupled with an expected Florida pick-up, where Clinton is polling ahead of Obama by 21% (52-31-9), it makes South Carolina pivotal for Obama to re-gain momentum. Edwards needs a miracle on the LV strip to happen.

The Republican situation in Florida is just a mess, a four-way tie.

My hope is that Romney wins in Michigan, McCain in Nevada, Huckabee in South Carolina, Giuliani in Florida, heading into Feb 5th. That will guarantee nothing is settled on the Republican side until September.



Display:


Re: CA & Fl Poll (none / 0)

What is Obama's February 5 strategy?  I am still interested to know his COH too.


by rcipw on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 04:14:21 PM EST

CA Ballot Measures (none / 0)

http://speakoutca.org/

Excerpt

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by dearreader on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 04:20:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: CA & Fl Poll (none / 0)

I've been wondering that, too.  So much of Obama's Iowa campaign was driven by getting record numbers of voters to the polls (and it was very impressive).  I wonder how he'll deal with a state as big as California and one that votes along with half the rest of the country.  He's behind in national polls, so I don't think he can just count on that.


by BDB on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 04:21:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: CA & Fl Poll (none / 0)

Based on where they've set-up offices, it seems that they are planning to compete seriously everywhere. I would expect an added emphasis, though, on caucus states, states with large black populations, and California. The goal in NY/NJ/CT will be to collect delegates, not to win. They will also fight to win in Massachusetts.


by blueflorida on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 04:32:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

McCain and Hillary to run their respective tables (none / 0)

I think McCain and Hillary will run the table from here on out....

I think SC will be a squeaker but a winner for Hillary, where she will take a majority of white support but a critical minority of black support.  I think Edwards will be embarrassed in NV.


by Zeitgeist9000 on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 04:16:28 PM EST

Obama Wins South Carolina (none / 0)

I don't see how Obama loses South Carolina.  Granted, there was a front-page post here that said the same thing about Obama and New Hampshire, but his gains in SC started before Iowa and I think are probably stronger and more solid than his post-Iowa bump in NH.


by BDB on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 04:23:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Clinton Closing (none / 0)

Rasmussen   
01/13 - 01/13    516 LV    38(O)    33(C)    17(E)

I think that African Americans are taking a second look at Obama, and a sizable minority will side with Clinton....


by Zeitgeist9000 on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 04:27:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

It's not African Americans it's whites. (none / 0)

This is a bit of push back because of the race card gambit. I still think he's favorite but it's going to be much closer than expected.


by ottovbvs on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 04:31:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

HRC & SC (none / 0)

two things need to happen for her to win South Carolina: (1) Edwards needs to fade, (2) she has to hold onto about 30% of the African-American vote. #2 is in place, #1 she still needs to worry about.


by blueflorida on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 04:34:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: McCain and Hillary to run their respective (none / 0)

The media is already playing SC as a must win for SC. He was born there and won there before. Obviously, its a different race with different rules, but it is the way tings go. Edwards IS fading and he will not be the nominee. It think it is very clear that the Democratic nominee will be either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama.


Restore America's Strength.
by RJEvans on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 07:33:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: McCain and Hillary to run their respective (none / 0)

Oops, that is... the media is already playing SC as a must win for John Edwards.


Restore America's Strength.
by RJEvans on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 07:34:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: McCain and Hillary to run their respective (none / 0)

I think Michigan is a must-win for Romney, South Carolina is a must-win for Edwards, and Florida is a must-win for Giuliani.   Each of them is toast if they don't come through.

Nevada isn't a must-win for anyone though I think coming in third is an all but coup de grace to Edwards.


by InigoMontoya on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 09:21:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

SC wil have marginal effect on FL (none / 0)

She's going to "win' MI. I know it's screwy but she's going to put it in her win column. She's got a fair chance of winning NV which is even more screwy than IA and so can be spun either way by either side. If he wins SC it's going to be spun as he won because he played the race card. That's why I was staggered when he started playing it up. I ultimately came to the conclusion that Axelrod or someone has concluded that creating some mo out of SC is their only distant hope. They can read all these polls coming out of FL and some of the big states for Super Tu like CA and the national polls which are a fairly accurate reflection of what going to happen across the country. It's the writing on the wall. So try and get a big win in SC and hope for the best. It's crazy because it seriously harms his "above race" persona which was real and one of his most solid assets.  


by ottovbvs on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 04:21:50 PM EST

Tony Rezko (none / 0)

Remeber back to the middle of last week.  ABC reports on Tony Rezko complete with perp walk pics and the next thing you know you have Obama's campaign going off the hook about racial problems.


by dpANDREWS on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 04:24:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

There must be something that can be done (none / 0)

In NV they are moving caucus sites into union casinos so that the union that backs Obama can give Barry Obama a leg up.  

Give a guy a break, right.

Maybe in FL and CA they can just go ahead and move voting boths into the homes of Obama supporters.   Level the playing field a bit.

Seriously,

If not for the media bias in favor of Obama, and for John Edwards helping Obama by carrying more than half the attack load,  Obama would be a nice story and that would be that.  Clinton has consistantly been strong in these large states ... not just FL and CA, but TX, NY and NJ too.   Although the media is trying with one story about about how NY could be "up for grabs."

If Obama can't win SC by 15 people should open there eyes and see his campaign for what is.   He should win SC by 20.


by dpANDREWS on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 04:23:37 PM EST

Re: There must be something that can be done (none / 0)

Are you really that conspiratorial?

The Nevada Democratic Party (very very friendly to HRC) included the caucus at worksites in their delegate selection plan that was submitted and approved by the DNC well over 6 months ago. The sites were put there so that working people had a better chance of actually attending a caucus. That decision was made months and months before Culinary endorsed Obama -- no one objected then, but suddenly after the union endorsed, Clinton supporters went to court to keep that from happening.

After Iowa, I heard HRC herself complain how unfair the caucus system was because it kept people who had to work from attending - so the Nevada Democratic Party took an innovative step to allow the thousands of Democrats working on the strip to be able to attend, and suddenly it is a conspiracy to help Obama.? Ah, consistency...

I guess making it harder for working people to caucus is okay if it helps Clinton win, eh?

If you read the NYTimes story, they never claim that Obama is going to challenge Clinton for a win in NY -- but rather that his campaign is organizing to get enough votes to pick up a boat load of delegates and keep HRC from running away with it. But if you want to be so Nixonian, sure, the media is all against you and biased in favor of Obama.

Finally, I just need to say that the continued use of "Barry" to refer to Barack Obama is nothing more a childish, playground taunt - you sound exactly like the Republicans who persist in using "Democrat" instead of "Democratic" -- not very becoming. But hey, if that's the image you want to project, keep it up.


Once social change begins,it cannot be reversed. You cannot uneducate the person who has learned to read. You cannot oppress people who are not afraid anymore.
by terje on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 06:29:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: CA & Fl Poll (none / 0)

The GOP will settle on their candidate during the convention that will be held across the street from Larry Craig's (other office).  Wow!! The floor fight will make for great Cable news coverage!!


by nzubechukwu on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 04:24:21 PM EST

Michigan (none / 0)

Does anyone know why Obama took his name off the ballot in Michigan?  And why he pressured Edwards to do the same.  

Is it me or does that just seem stupid?  Did he want to lessen a Clinton win?  Because she's going to get some delegates out of Michigan and he isn't going to get any and have to hope he gets some of the uncommitted at the convention when it's probably not going to matter because the nominee will already have been chosen.


by BDB on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 04:26:44 PM EST

Re: Michigan (none / 0)

He wanted to pressure her to take her name off as well.  It was a gambit to force her to follow suit.  My hunch is that he feared that without being able to campaign in the state that he would not be able to overcome Clinton's lead and so wanted to make it a non-issue.  The only problem is that Clinton called his bluff and how will get a huge chunk of delegates out of it.

Maybe someone has actual sourcing on why he did it, that is just my guess.

And, before you start screaming about how the delegates won't matter, please see the extensive posting on this from the past week (and before).


by rcipw on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 04:37:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Michigan (none / 0)

she's going to get some delegates out of Michigan and he isn't going to get any

Michigan doesn't have any delegates this year.  They'll probably set up an alternate delegate selection process later in the year, but the primary won't be assigning any of them.  

It's just a beauty contest and by taking his name off the ballot, Obama avoids a bad news story boosting Clinton's momentum.  Momentum is much more important than a few dozen delegates, anyway.  Especially so in the lead in to Super Tuesday.


Read Brian's Utah Weblog
by Brian Watkins on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 12:25:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: CA & Fl Poll (none / 0)

Obama is a low life schumck. He's currently distributing flyers in NV stating that you can be a DEM for a day to Repugs and Independents. I DO NOT LIKE Barack Obama.

Please scroll down and read this trash.

http://www.taylormarsh.com/archives_view .php?id=26826


by lonnette33 on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 04:28:27 PM EST

Re: CA & Fl Poll (none / 0)

Obama win's NV and SC the election picture changes dramatically.

Look at the ABC/WASHPOST POLL.

iT WENT FROM A cLINTON LEAD OF 30 POINTS TO A LEAD OF 5 POINTS.

NV clinton lead by 20 points and in the most recent poll it shows a 3 way tie 32 O 30C AND 27jre.

The bottom line is that the poll number's are soft. The race is dynamic not static.


by BDM on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 04:38:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Look at todays CBS/ NYT and Gallup polls (none / 0)

She's back to 13-15% ahead.


by ottovbvs on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 04:40:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Look at todays CBS/ NYT and Gallup polls (none / 0)

Look at Wash,Post poll and Rasmussen today Clinton's lead is 5 and 4 pts.


by BDM on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 04:52:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Look at todays CBS/ NYT and Gallup polls (none / 0)

There is no good voter model for NV as the caucuses haven't been well-polled before.  And even if they had been, the rules are different this year.

So nobody knows who might turn out.  Just wait for the real thing and we'll all know within a week.


Read Brian's Utah Weblog
by Brian Watkins on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 12:28:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Unfortunately his fingerprints are all over this. (none / 0)

If you are Hillary hating Republican come and vote against her. Can't imagine anything more likely to tick Democrats off.  


by ottovbvs on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 04:38:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: CA & Fl Poll (none / 0)

Where did he say that rssrai? Are you for real or just a freakin' idiot.


by lonnette33 on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 04:40:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Not according to Jon Ralston (none / 0)

Ralston quotes him as saying:


"(Why) make a special rule only for these workers, for the rest of you other workers, tough luck. I think the rules ought to be the same for everyone. I question why you would ever have a temporary caucus site and limit to a certain kind of workers....I don't think you ought to favor one kind of worker over another."

I think this gets to the root of the problem. The problem isn't with at large precients, the problem is with the entire caucus system.

One type of voter shouldn't be given an advantage when it comes to voting. BUT the necessity for at large precients to help casino workers vote is created by the caucus system which forces people to vote at specific locations within a small specific time period and on a specific day.

If we really wanted EVERYONE to vote then we would make the vote a primary modeled on, ironically enough, Nevada. In Nevada, early voting starts about a week ahead of the election and you can vote in several easily accesible places such as malls for example.

There's electronic voting machine which reviews your votes to make sure you got it right then prints a paper copy,which it shows to you, to validate once again that you got they got it right.


by world dictator on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 05:37:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

What nonsense he said all should have same (none / 0)

chance to vote. How's that "disenfrancising anyone." I know nothing about this issue until it got on the radar and you know what when you think about it there is a bit of discrimination here. Who chose the locations. There are dozens of casinos in NV why only nine picked. It aint very logical when you get down and think about it.


by ottovbvs on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 04:36:14 PM EST

lawsuit should have been filed months ago (none / 0)

The timing of it makes it look ill-intentioned.


Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.
by desmoinesdem on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 04:37:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: CA & Fl Poll (none / 0)

I saw a poll in the Sunday paper that had Hillary with a huge lead in NJ, and Giuliani with a moderate lead over McCain on the R side.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 04:41:37 PM EST

Indies in Cali (none / 0)

Independents CAN NOT vote in the GOP primary but CAN vote in the Democratic primary.  That's a huge bonus to Obama and a huge drain to McCain.


John McCain wants to stay in Iraq for a century.
by jkfp2004 on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 05:54:19 PM EST

What if HRC wins <50% of nation overall (none / 0)

Does that mean that the Dems HAVE TO have a Run Off?

Can Edwards pledge his votes to Obama after super Tuesday and then withdraw?--(doubt it?)


by ionsys on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 06:43:14 PM EST

Re: What if HRC wins &lt;50% of nation overall (none / 0)

I believe delegates can be released to do as they please, but I don't know that they can be pledged.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 06:50:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What if HRC wins &lt;50% of nation overall (none / 0)

If no candidate gets 50% of the delegates then there will be tough negotiations between the candidates and the delegates to switch sides. The candidate with the least amount of delegates can get nominated. In fact, Al Gore could get nominated if no candidate gets 50% of the delegates. Of course, if Hillary Clinton gets the most popular votes, she can claim that the PEOPLE voted for her and she should be the nominee and as a compromise name Obama as her running mate. So many things can happen.


Restore America's Strength.
by RJEvans on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 07:45:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: CA & Fl Poll (none / 0)

Jerome:

Thank you for writing a post that doesnt' snipe at Obama:). We're all fragile after NH!


by mcdave on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 07:27:27 PM EST

Re: CA &amp; Fl Poll (none / 0)

Florida is a closed primary. Obama has no chance in Florida. He may be able to close the gap, but it won't be a win for him. This puts Clinton in place for some momentum going into Super Tuesday. I personally think, if Obama does not have the momentum, he has the possibility of winning only the states with an open primary/caucus. That is about half the states. But even then, those open primary/caucus could turn out like NH.


Restore America's Strength.
by RJEvans on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 07:36:51 PM EST


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