The generic presidential ballot isn't the most important thing in the world -- we live in a presidential rather than parliamentary system, so we vote for candidates rather than just parties -- but it can be instructive in telling us what the political environment looks like. So without further ado, the latest CBS News/New York Times poll (.pdf):
If the November 2008 election for President were being held today, would you probably vote for the Republican candidate or would you probably vote for the Democratic candidate?
Republican Democratic 1/12/08 32 50 12/9/07 31 48 10/16/07 (CBS) 33 48 9/9/07 32 48 7/17/07 32 47 6/28/07 (CBS) 28 55 5/23/07 33 49 3/11/07 31 51
The most recent spread -- 50 percent to 32 percent in favor of the Democrats -- is remarkable, not only in its size but also in its durability. For nearly a year, the American public has favored a Democrat for the presidency over a Republican by a margin of between 15 and 27 points, with an average lead for the Democrats of 18 points and a median lead for the Democrats of 16.5 points. With numbers like these, it's no wonder that both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama lead three of the four leading Republican presidential candidates by double digit margins in head-to-head polling nationally.
Now these numbers are decidedly not license to slack off. Far from it. Yet they do paint a good picture of what the opportunities are in 2008 to bring real change and a significant swing towards the Democratic Party. What's more, they also show that the American public still can't get excited by the GOP (and perhaps never will this cycle).
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