Political Geography: Advantage Hillary

Over the last week or so, I have been looking at the New Hampshire primary and Iowa caucus results to see if there were any interesting voting patterns in terms of how different areas of each state voted.  Perhaps the most noticeable pattern that emerged is how in both New Hampshire and Iowa the geographic areas which are often described as "red state" areas had a relatively high correlation with voting for Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary.  Many, many people on this site and others keep repeating that Hillary "just can't win" in "red" America.  And yet, that is exactly what she's doing.

The nice thing about looking at these results from New Hampshire and Iowa is that in both states large numbers of independents and other non-Democrats participated in the Democratic primary/caucus.  This is particularly true for New Hampshire, where 46-48% of those who voted in the Democratic primary were independents, Republicans or unregistered voters.  Only 52-54% of New Hampshire Democratic primary voters were actual Democrats.  In Iowa, the proportion of independents and non-Democrats was smaller, though still very significant.

Furthermore, in both states the number of persons who participated in the Democratic primary/caucus was significantly larger than the number who participated in the Republican primary/caucus.  This is true despite the fact that both states have in recent history been swing states with voting registration split evenly between the two major parties.  In Iowa, there were literally twice as many persons participating in the Democratic caucus as there were those who took part in the Republican caucus.  In New Hampshire, the numbers were not as lopsided, although still clearly leaning towards the Democratic side.

Therefore, the persons who voted in each primary were not just partisan Democrats, but a relatively representative population sample of the area in which they voted.  

Looking at exit/entrance polls from Iowa and New Hampshire, you can see that independents voted at a higher rate for Barack Obama than for Clinton.  This is particularly true in Iowa.  In New Hampshire, more independents voted for Obama than for Hillary, but the difference was not as great - approximately 50,000 independents voted for Obama, and approximately 40,000 voted for Hillary.  I did a post on this a few days ago (the LINK is at the very bottom of this diary; I can't place here because it messes up my formatting somehow).

(As I noted in that post, it's interesting to note that more independents in New Hampshire voted for Hillary than for John McCain.)   However, these numbers do not provide us with the full picture of things.  For one thing, they do not distinguish between Democratic- or progressive-leaning independents and Republican- or conservative-leaning independents.  One needs to further study other factors in the exit/entrance polls and to look at these results through a geospatial analysis of voting patterns.  

NEW HAMPSHIRE:

I did a number of maps for New Hampshire - voting by county, congressional district, and town (please scroll down to see maps).   MAP 1 compares the 2000 and 2004 Democratic primary results to the results from this year.  As you can see there's a decent correlation between "Howard Dean" areas voting for Obama and areas that went for John Kerry in the 2004 primary voting for Hillary.  There's an even higher correlation, though, between "Bill Bradley" areas voting for Obama, and "Al Gore" areas voting for Hillary.

Looking at MAP 2 and MAP 3 you can see that "red" areas of New Hampshire (those that voted for George Bush in the 2004 general election) tended to go for Hillary in the primary last Tuesday.  Out of the 4 counties that voted for Bush in the general, 3 voted for Hillary in the primary.  Out of the 6 counties that voted for Kerry in the general, 4 voted for Obama in the primary.  Likewise, the 1st Congressional District voted for Bush in the general and Hillary in the primary; the 2nd Congressional District voted for Kerry in the general and Obama in the primary.  

The voting maps by town are perhaps more interesting.  You can get town by town results here: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primari es/results/county/#val=NHDEM1

Overall, 127 towns and voting areas voted for Obama and 102 voted for Hillary (8 were tied or voted for other candidates; there are 234 towns in New Hampshire and 3 other voting areas, but for the purpose of this diary I will refer to all 237 entities as "towns").   In 2004 Kerry carried the state, but Bush still managed to win 131 towns.  Out of these 131 "red towns" Hillary carried 72 and Obama 59 (see MAP 4).  Out of the 98 "blue towns" Obama carried 68 and Hillary only 30.  However, these statistics still do not give us a true picture of the red/blue divide in New Hampshire because the population size of the towns varies tremendously.  

I correlated the statistics from MAP 4 and MAP 5 to get a good picture of partisan preferences for the different towns.  As you can see in MAP 4, the towns colored in blue are ones which Kerry won in the 2004 general election, and which Obama won in the 2008 primary.  These towns comprise approximately 22% of the population of New Hampshire, and include the state capital, Concord, as well as Portsmouth, Exeter, Keene, Lebanon, and the university towns of Hanover and Durham.   Many of these towns are in the Connecticut Valley, along the Vermont border.  Much of this area is rural, but ironically, in New Hampshire many rural areas tend to be more progressive than the urban/suburban areas.  

Towns colored in green are ones which Bush won in the 2004 general election, and which Obama won in the 2008 primary.  These towns comprise only about 12% of the population of the state and are mostly very small in character.  The largest town in this subgroup is Amherst, with a little over 10,000 population.  As you can see, when adjusted for population, towns which Obama carried lean Democratic over Republican by almost a 2:1 ratio.

Towns colored in yellow are ones which Kerry won in the 2004 general election, and which Hillary won in the 2008 primary.  These towns comprise approximately 21% of the population of New Hampshire, and include Rochester, Nashua, Dover, Hampton and Berlin.  Many are blue-collar industrial and post-industrial areas.  According to exit polling, Hillary won heavily in New Hampshire among those with no college degree (she also won among those with non-postgraduate college degrees, albeit more narrowly; Obama won only those with a postgraduate degree) and she won among union members.  Hillary won among the 58% of state voters who are "very worried" about the economy, while Obama won among the 40% who are only "somewhat worried."  As you can tell by now, the towns carried by Kerry in the 2004 general election, spilt almost 50/50 between Obama and Hillary (when adjusted for population).

Perhaps the most important (politically speaking in terms of our general election prospects) are the towns colored in red.  These towns are ones which Bush won in 2004, but which Hillary won in the 2008 primary.  These towns comprise approximately 43% of the population of New Hampshire.  They include Manchester and its suburbs and most towns in the Merrimack valley (Londonderry, Derry, Hudson, Salem, etc. as well as Laconia further north in the state.)  Many towns here are historical mill towns; blue collar areas where "Reagan Democrats" and "Reagan independents" predominate to this day.  Even as Kerry was carrying the state in 2004, these areas still voted Republican.  New Hampshire primary exit polling also confirms that Hillary carried these "Reagan Democrat" areas: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primari es/results/epolls/index.html#NHDEM

Among Catholics (35% of the state's population, and perhaps the most representative sample of "Reagan Democrats" and "Reagan independents") Hillary won with 44%, compared to 27% for Obama.  

It should be noted that among the areas that voted for Bush in the 2004 general, approximately 78% (when adjusted for population) went for Hillary in the primary.  The reason this is a very important net positive for Democrats -- and specifically for Hillary Clinton -- is because the already "blue" areas (those largely carried by Obama in the primary) will vote Democratic in November no matter who the nominee is, while the "red" areas are more likely to vote for the Democratic nominee IF that nominee happens to be Hillary, for whom they voted overwhelmingly in the primary (remember, almost half of the Democratic primary voters were not Democrats).  This is what I mean by "Advantage Hillary" in the title of this post.

By handily holding Democratic voters in the camp and expanding the Democratic universe to moderate- and conservative-leaning independents (not just to progressive-leaning independents) Hillary may be well positioned for the general election, if she indeed becomes our nominee.

New Hampshire maps:

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IOWA:

You may think that, with Hillary coming in 3rd in Iowa, it would be hard to deduce anything positive for her from the Iowa results.  I was looking at the entrance polls though and one thing popped out right away - she actually won rural voters in the state:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primari es/results/epolls/index.html#IADEM

Unlike New Hampshire, whose "rural" voters are kind of a political anomaly (much like rural voters in neighboring Vermont), rural voters in Iowa are more typical of the country, and in particular of "red state" areas.  You can see the Iowa caucus winners by county on MAP 6 (please scroll down to see maps).  MAP 7 provides perhaps a better gauge of the results as you can see 1st, 2nd and 3rd place rankings as well.  Despite coming in third in the state, Hillary actually managed to win the western 5th Congressional District.  This is really the only truly Republican district in the state (60% for Bush in 2004 - see MAP 10).

Like the New Hampshire data, I tried to correlate the Democratic caucus numbers (MAPS 6 and 7) with the 2004 general election numbers (MAP 8).  The result is MAP 9.  As you can see, the state was quite polarized when it voted on January 3.  The heavily Democratic areas in eastern Iowa (areas in dark blue on the map -- Cedar Rapids, Iowa City, Davenport, Dubuque, Waterloo) and the urban/suburban parts of central Iowa (Des Moines, Ames/Story Co.) voted very heavily for Obama over Clinton and Edwards.   On the other hand areas in western, and parts of northern and southern Iowa were more evenly split, with a clear advantage for Hillary in some areas, and an advantage for Edwards in others.  In many of  these counties, Obama finished in 3rd place (or in the case of Ringgold Co., in 4th place).  You can get actual results here:  http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primari es/results/county/#IADEM
or here: http://data.desmoinesregister.com/electi on08/caucus/dems_results_singlecounty.ph p?countyfips=19161
MAP 11 provides another interesting way to look at the results.  The map kind of speaks for itself as I added handy stats, which you can interpret on your own.

What's quite interesting also in the Iowa results is that out of the 29 Iowa counties that voted for Edwards, in only 10 did Obama come in 2nd and Hillary 3rd, while in 18 Hillary came in 2nd and Obama was 3rd or 4th (in one county which Edwards won, Hillary and Obama tied for second place).  This means that, contrary to popular opinion, most Edwards voters may have gone to Hillary and not to Obama if Edwards was not running or withdrew.   In either case, it looks like in Iowa Hillary and Edwards split much of the rural vote, while Obama won big in the more Democratic and "progressive-independent" areas, with Hillary probably doing even better than Edwards among the "red state" voters which may prove important in this and other states in November.

Iowa maps:

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Link to my post on voting statistics from NH:

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/1 /9/22249/96025/158/434119



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Re: Political Geography: Advantage Hillary (none / 0)

Another awesome diary silver spring. You're such a hardworker. rec'd.


by lonnette33 on Sat Jan 12, 2008 at 09:15:10 PM EST

Re: Political Geography: Advantage Hillary (none / 0)

Indeed, this is a tour de force. And I was much impressed by the conclusion: the geographic areas which are often described as "red state" areas had a relatively high correlation with voting for Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary.

This is perhaps proof that the Hillary agenda is a replicate of the Republican Lite administration of Bill Clinton. Personally, I believe that with the turnout for Obama, this picture can be turned around.

What this nation does not need is another four or eight years of Clintonism. We are Democrats living the left side of town and don't need another spell of rightward politics such as the Clintons intend to serve up.


Click on Peace, Propaganda, & The Promised Land and learn the truth about the I/P conflict.
by shergald on Sat Jan 12, 2008 at 11:51:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Political Geography: Advantage Hillary (2.00 / 1)

You could not be more correct.  The Clinton's simply work to accommodate Conservatism, not shape a progressive agenda.  Just look at what the Clinton's did in the 1990's:  Welfare Reform, big tax cuts on unearned income in 1997, the Defense Of Marriage Act.  Very Conservative stuff.  


by Toddwell on Sat Jan 12, 2008 at 11:57:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Political Geography: Advantage Hillary (none / 0)

the quickest way to defeat conservatism is to actually win an election ... without that, we can rant all we want.  I am extatic that Hillary does seem to be attracting the Reagan Democrats WHILE at the same time keeping the Democratic base -- this shows strength for her in November.  Everything you mention above from the 90's is Bill Clinton stuff -- Hillary was on the edge of progressive reform back then when no one else was (ie. health care; and yes, it was defeated by the Repugs. -- knowing that if she got her way on health care, the Repugs might be greatly diminished longterm ... Hillary was on that progressive edge way back then, when many johnny come latelys (and no, not referring to Edwards here; just a phrase) who rant on this and other sites had not even seen the light on what it is to be progressive.  Hillary's heart and soul has always been on the progressive side; her record (not just talk) demonstrates this.  The fact that she can also work across ideological lines sometimes (as Obama claims to do also) shows her political acumen and astuteness; but she is a huge progressive at heart and will govern as such if and when she's elected.


by silver spring on Sun Jan 13, 2008 at 10:48:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Political Geography: Advantage Hillary (none / 0)

Clinton's election in 1992 revived Conservatism.  


by Toddwell on Sun Jan 13, 2008 at 04:37:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

truly awesome (none / 0)

and fills me full of hope.

Im gonna send it around on my friends list.


Offend the Media - Vote for Hillary!
by Seymour Glass on Sat Jan 12, 2008 at 09:21:28 PM EST

Re: Political Geography: Advantage Hillary (none / 0)

Very interesting!  You clearly put a ton of work into this.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Sat Jan 12, 2008 at 09:35:02 PM EST

Re: Political Geography: Advantage Hillary (none / 0)

I've never bought into the anti-clinton independents talk. It just couldn't be more then a reflex considering Bill maintained a consistent 60% job approval number over his last three years in office.
What you are showing is that Clinton plays the independent vote as a zero sum game to the Democrats favor. Using her advantage with women and those with economic concerns steals votes directly from the Republicans. You are also showing that Obama is playing an additive game with independents. Bringing more into the process. The question I have is are they just jumping into the process early? If the strength Obama is showing with independents is merely a sign of the current political environment, his independent votes will indeed carry over.
When looking at State by State Democat/Republican Head to Heads it does indeed appear to be the case that Obama's independents transfer while Hillary's don't as much. This becomes even clearer when looking at EV's.
by Judeling on Sat Jan 12, 2008 at 10:28:07 PM EST

Re: Political Geography: Advantage Hillary (none / 0)

what is interesting to me is that Hillary does better with the working class people Edwards said only he could win over than Edwards is.  Aren't those the very "red state" types that are supposed to hate her, the working class Reagan democrats and independents who are supposed to find her "too divisive"?


ABO... Anybody but Obama. I LIKE the democratic party.

by MollieBradford on Sat Jan 12, 2008 at 10:45:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Political Geography: Advantage Hillary (none / 0)

A very insightful diary, to be sure.  I made a comment in another thread on a similar point, that Hillary had a significant swing in the same NH precincts where Bush enjoyed the same result, so we certainly agree about that.  I have a slightly different interpretation of how this relates, however, to her message and her strategy for the remainder of the primary campaign.

It is certainly clear that her success in precincts who voted conservatively in the 2004 election is a vindication of a her platform, and goes a long way towards explaining narratives her campaign has attempted to create about Obama, and a lesser degree Edwards.  The attacks on Obama for supporting single-payer health care and removing mandatory minimum sentencing, which pitched him as a closet 'progressive,' spring to mind.

The risk for progressives is that Hillary finds a winning constituency among the more conservative demographics of the party and carries this platform into the general election, further tugging the party to the centre.


by Shaun Appleby on Sat Jan 12, 2008 at 10:28:58 PM EST

Shaun, you are reaching here (none / 0)

If anyone is going to carry the party to the center, it would be Obama, who is explicitly seeking the support of independents and Republicans. Hillary would never imagine that if elected, she could rely on the support of a lot of Republicans, but this is a key element of Obama's strategy.

That's why I worry that even if Obama manages to get elected, he will not have any mandate for progressive change. I could introduce you to Obama supporters who think labor unions are obsolete, oppose raising the minimum wage, etc.


Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.
by desmoinesdem on Sun Jan 13, 2008 at 10:56:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

A stretch? (none / 0)

Well your concern runs contrary to the trend I was commenting on, the similarity in NH precincts which swung substantially to Bush in 2004 to the ones Hillary won.


by Shaun Appleby on Sun Jan 13, 2008 at 02:13:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Political Geography: Advantage Hillary (none / 0)

this is interesting.  Aren't those more liberal towns also college towns?  
So I am concluding from this that I am right about Clinton being good for down ticket races in red states and red districts.  She is bringing out the working class women and doing well with the working class.  This is very good news for the party.

ABO... Anybody but Obama. I LIKE the democratic party.

by MollieBradford on Sat Jan 12, 2008 at 10:42:21 PM EST

Can you post this at Bleeding Heartland? (none / 0)

I will promote it to the front page.

www.bleedingheartland.com

Thanks for the analysis.


Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.
by desmoinesdem on Sat Jan 12, 2008 at 11:42:07 PM EST

one quibble with map 11 (none / 0)

You have Woodbury County (Sioux City) and Pottawattamie County (Council Bluffs) lumped in with the rural counties, but those two cities are fairly large population centers by Iowa standards.


Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.
by desmoinesdem on Sat Jan 12, 2008 at 11:44:28 PM EST

Re: one quibble with map 11 (none / 0)

Yes, they are indeed population centers, but I did not include them with the other blue-colored population centers on Map 11 because they did not vote Democratic in the general election and the point of the map was to show how a small number of counties in Iowa -- just 18 out of 99 total (granted, they have almost half of the state's population) and all quite Democratic-leaning in general elections -- in effect determined the  outcome of the caucus.  In those 18 blue counties Obama had like a 200 delegate advantage over Clinton and Edwards.  In the 81 other counties put together, most of which vote Republican in general elections, the primary split was such that Clinton, Edwards and Obama received almost the same number of delegates (380,379,379).

The point you brought up is interesting though because it therefore looks like not only many voters in "red-leaning" rural areas voted for Hillary but also many voters in "red-leaning" urban/suburban areas like Sioux City (Woodbury) and Council Bluffs (Pottawattamie).

unlike other large pop. centers in Iowa, they voted for Hillary

map 11 was perhaps the most "subjective" one here --
done more to compare how two "halves" of Iowa voted -- and also done to


by silver spring on Sun Jan 13, 2008 at 12:13:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: one quibble with map 11 (none / 0)

(forgot to finish my sentence) ... also done to show  how the Iowa caucus vote was in many ways very different depending on what part of the state you were in.

I wonder, with Council Bluffs, being right across from Omaha, and apparently also having one of the highest pro-Hillary vote in the state, if the Bob Kerrey endorsement had any bearing ??


by silver spring on Sun Jan 13, 2008 at 12:19:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I would imagine (none / 0)

that Kerrey was less influential than the local Dem leaders there. Iowa Senate Majority leader Mike Gronstal is from Council Bluffs, and while he was officially neutral, his whole family was helping Clinton.

Maybe someone from western Iowa can shed more insight.


Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.
by desmoinesdem on Sun Jan 13, 2008 at 10:49:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: one quibble with map 11 (none / 0)

i see your main point, btw .... you are absolutely correct in that the map title is misleading.


by silver spring on Sun Jan 13, 2008 at 12:23:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

now I see what you are getting at (none / 0)

It would be helpful to change the title of the map, because Sioux City and Council Bluffs are both several times larger than some of the blue-leaning population centers you noted, like Fort Dodge.


Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.
by desmoinesdem on Sun Jan 13, 2008 at 10:54:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: now I see what you are getting at (none / 0)

done ... appreciate the input.


by silver spring on Sun Jan 13, 2008 at 11:14:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Political Geography: Advantage Hillary (none / 0)

Unfortunately, one can only guess that the success of the Hillary campaign is totally dependent upon those Reagan Democrats. It is therefor not surprising to see the upsurge of racial talk in the media, centered on the speech of Hillary advocates.

In spite of Obama's success thus far, it is hard to deny that racism remains a strong element in national politics, and the best way to beat a Black candidate is to imply some deficiency based on his/her race.

American democracy has long failed as a model for the world to follow.


Click on Peace, Propaganda, & The Promised Land and learn the truth about the I/P conflict.
by shergald on Sun Jan 13, 2008 at 08:22:10 AM EST

no doubt she can win NH (none / 0)

But NH already went for Kerry. We need to win some states that went for bush.


Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.
by desmoinesdem on Sun Jan 13, 2008 at 10:53:04 AM EST

Awesome Diary (none / 0)

This is an awesome diary, silver spring.  Very well done.

It also might be interesting to disect the higher voting precincts, or higher Dem precincts in Des Moines or Iowa City.  I suspect that the turnout was higher here, but the state delegates would remain the same.  

I have no doubt that Hillary can win.  I also have zero doubt that Obama can win with a slightly larger margin because of his ability to mobilize the base and win independents.

What it came down to for me in Iowa was the possibility of having a mediocre president in Clinton or an exceptional one in Obama.  I could be proud of both, but only one would encourage me to tell my grandchildren about that one night in Iowa when I helped change the world...


by IowaCubs on Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 11:00:25 AM EST


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