If Clinton wins the Democratic nomination, which I think seems most likely, and McCain doesn't win the Republican nomination, which is iffy, then the conventional wisdom is that Bloomberg will run, and he's
getting it ready:
New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg has quietly been polling and conducting a highly sophisticated voter analysis in all 50 states as he decides whether to launch an independent presidential bid, associates said Wednesday.
I don't see how Bloomberg would win a three-way race, unless he were to become the de facto Republican nominee, which also seems highly unlikely due to his liberal social stances on things like abortion and gun control. Some might think that Bloomberg has some pull among Democrats, but I recall, being inside the hall that night, when Bloomberg laid a big fat one on endorsing Bush for President in 2004. Roll that one on a TV spot, and whatever support he has among Democrats will wither.
The article goes on to describe some of the micro-targeting polling techniques that Doug Schoen used for Bloomberg's candidacy, and how he might use it for a Presidential run; which is mildly interesting, due to Schoen and Mark Penn being business partners:
Schoen says he is not working for Bloomberg now, but he is part of the mayor's inner circle and makes a convincing and well-researched case in his new book, "Declaring Independence," (about how a third-party candidate such as Bloomberg could run for president and upset the election this year).
It's in the fantasy section.
