NH Vaults McCain Into The Lead In SC

by Todd Beeton, Thu Jan 10, 2008 at 09:19:26 PM EST

Two post-New Hampshire polls are showing McCain in the lead in South Carolina following his New Hampshire win, overtaking Huckabee who's had a consistent lead there for the past month. Results of the Fox News (500 LVs, 1/9, MOE +/- 4%) and Rasmussen Reports (785 LVs, 1/9, MOE +/- 4%) polls are as follows:

CandidateFox NewsRasmussen (1/6)
McCain2527 (21)
Huckabee1824 (28)
Romney1716 (15)
Thompson912 (11)
Giuliani56 (10)
Paul55 (4)

This will be very interesting to see how solid McCain's bounce turns out to be (we've seen how ephemeral they can be this week) especially considering that he is competing in two states simultaneously while his chief competitors are competing in just one each (Romney in Michigan and Huckabee in South Carolina.) If McCain wins both Michigan and South Carolina, he'll be the favorite for the nomination and if Huckabee loses SC, even if he comes in 2nd, that will be devastating for his campaign.




Tags: 2008 presidential election, republican primary, john mccain, south carolina (all tags)

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Re: NH Vaults McCain Into The Lead In SC (none / 0)

Well so much for Democrats being likely to win the Presidental election.

How the hell are we going to beat John McCain?


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Thu Jan 10, 2008 at 09:28:59 PM EST

Re: NH Vaults McCain Into The Lead In SC (none / 0)

We can start by making sure we don't nominate Clinton, because a Clinton/Bloomberg/Nader/McCain race won't be very good for us.


by skipos on Thu Jan 10, 2008 at 09:40:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NH Vaults McCain Into The Lead In SC (none / 0)

I don't think an Obama/McCain race will be a good matchup either, so.


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Thu Jan 10, 2008 at 10:08:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NH Vaults McCain Into The Lead In SC (none / 0)

I think Obama vs. McCain would be like B. Clinton vs. Bush or Kennedy vs. Nixon.
The boring old status quo guy doesn't do as well in those kinds of contests.
And at least Bloomberg and Nader won't be in the mix.
by skipos on Thu Jan 10, 2008 at 11:37:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NH Vaults McCain Into The Lead In SC (none / 0)

Yeah, but Nixon barely lost to Kennedy, and Kennedy had to outhawk Nixon to actually get ahead.


Join us at Show Me Progress!
by clarkent on Fri Jan 11, 2008 at 07:42:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NH Vaults McCain Into The Lead In SC (none / 0)

A good way to keep from wetting the bed when you think about running against John McCain is to actually watch John McCain.

The McCain of 2000 is kind of scary.  The McCain many Democrats have in their head is kind of scary.  The actual, real-life McCain... not so scary.  You'll see.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Thu Jan 10, 2008 at 11:45:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NH Vaults McCain Into The Lead In SC (none / 0)

Great point. He's like a senior tour golfer who tries to play in a youngster major, good for only one or two good rounds out of four. Often it's stunning how much McCain has declined.

In a long campaign that should become slowly obvious, and more difficult to mask.

I thought McCain had zero chance but only the weakness of the GOP field keeps him alive. Plus, as someone on Pollster.com pointed out in the comments the other day, issue circumstances have been incredibly fortunate for McCain lately.

While I was trying to dismiss McCain for the past year I always kept in mind my baseline theory, that everything tends to drift back to the beginning. Cheap stretchrunners have no chance but someone who once led the field is always somewhat of a threat to regain that standing.

Still, I'll be surprised if they turn to a guy they basically distrust and don't want.


by Gary Kilbride on Fri Jan 11, 2008 at 12:40:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NH Vaults McCain Into The Lead In SC (none / 0)

I agree.  We are living in the past.  


by Shaun Appleby on Fri Jan 11, 2008 at 01:26:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NH Vaults McCain Into The Lead In SC (none / 0)

  19% undecided - that's a lot.  Momentum might decide the South Carolina primary.  I don't really believe that John McCain can win a South Carolina primary, but it's possible he'll do the least amount of losing.


Jim Oberweis
by cilerder86 on Thu Jan 10, 2008 at 09:33:18 PM EST

It was that victory speech... (none / 0)

...he gave the night of the NH primary!  That stumbling, bumbling, stuttering oration with soaring rhetoric and vision must have swooned the South Carolina electorate.

What a world...

TrumanDem

Truman's Conscience


by DuvalDem on Thu Jan 10, 2008 at 09:54:56 PM EST

Re: NH Vaults McCain Into The Lead In SC (none / 0)

I live in Beaufort, SC and, although there are many McCain signs, I don't think he wins this state. Greenville and Aiken will ensure that he won't win. Look up Rep. Bob Inglis and you will see what you have to do/be to represent Greenville. How about this: Bob Jones University. Iowa on steroids.


by ND1979 on Thu Jan 10, 2008 at 10:19:26 PM EST

Re: NH Vaults McCain Into The Lead In SC (none / 0)


Looks like McCain's a sure thing to win both Nevada and South Carolina, probably by double digits. That's a given.

In fact, for any of the others to come within five points of McCain would be the most stunning upset comeback of them all. Not that there's a chance of that happening.

Gosh, can you just imagine if McCain didn't actually win both states? That might end his campaign entirely...


by admiralnaismith on Thu Jan 10, 2008 at 11:16:31 PM EST

Re: NH Vaults McCain Into The Lead In SC (none / 0)

Toilet Flushing

There goes our chances at the White House


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Fri Jan 11, 2008 at 07:58:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NH Vaults McCain Into The Lead In SC (none / 0)

Surely this past week should have taught us that it is impossible to say with any certainty what's going to happen. Nothing is guaranteed or impossible. Thompson could win SC for all we know.


by thesleepthief on Thu Jan 10, 2008 at 11:41:00 PM EST

Re: NH Vaults McCain Into The Lead In SC (none / 0)

The GOP Establishment is determined to stop Huckabee at all costs.


by rikyrah on Fri Jan 11, 2008 at 12:02:41 AM EST

Re: NH Vaults McCain Into The Lead In SC (1.00 / 2)

This is good.  If Hillary wins the Democratic nomination, I can support McCain if he wins the Republican nomination.  


by Toddwell on Fri Jan 11, 2008 at 02:17:25 AM EST

Re: NH Vaults McCain Into The Lead In SC (none / 0)

so will many many people.

and the war in Iraq continues forever


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Fri Jan 11, 2008 at 07:58:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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