On January 15, Michigan will vote in its primary, and it's turning into quite a race on the Republican side, being billed as Romney's final stand. Certainly he's playing into this perception, pulling ads from South Carolina and Florida to focus on Michigan, although if he gets another silver here no one doubts he'll continue on. It's just he's going to have to win one somewhere and where better than the state of his birth and where his father served as governor. Results from the latest (post-Iowa/pre-New Hampshire) Strategic Vision (700 LVs, 1/4-6, MOE +/- 4 and %) and Rossman Martin Survey (300 LVs, 1/6-7, MOE +/- 5.8%.) polls are as follows:
| Candidate | Strategic Vision 1/4-6 | Rossman Group 1/6-7 |
| McCain | 29 | 18 |
| Romney | 20 | 22 |
| Huckabee | 18 | 23 |
| Giuliani | 13 | 8 |
| Thompson | 5 | 4 |
| Paul | 5 | 3 |
Do you prefer a candidate who has experience in office or one who represents change?And then the list of voter priorities has McCain's strengths at the top (and a distinct weakness a bit lower down.)
Experience 44%
Change 28%
What do you believe is the number one issue facing America?One area that might hurt McCain is on ideology. McCain is distrusted greatly by conservatives for his advocacy for campaign finance reform and "amnesty" so the fact that 61% of voters feel it's either very or somewhat important that the candidate be "a conservative Republican in the mode of Ronald Reagan" could hurt him. Then again, McCain beat Romney slightly among Republicans in New Hampshire, which may indicate that the distrust among the rank and file of the party is dissipating. I suspect Mitt Romney will spend the next week reminding voters why they distrusted him in the first place. Democrats are voting next week as well, of course, although the only candidates on the ballot will be Hillary Clinton, Dennis Kucinich, Mike Gravel and Uncommitted. Right now, The Rossman Group poll has Hillary beating Uncommitted 48%-28% (again, pre-New Hampshire.) An interesting factor in this is to what extent Democrats will go to the polls to beef up the Uncommitted vote as a defacto vote for Obama or Edwards. There is an active campaign underway to get them to do just that.
War on terror 21%
Economy 17%
War in Iraq 15%
Immigration 11%
Taxes 10%
Crime 9%
Healthcare 8%
Education 5%
Detroiters for Uncommitted Voters, a group of mostly Obama supporters, wants to make sure that people vote in the Democratic primary Tuesday, even if their candidate isn't on the ballot. [...] U.S. Rep. John Conyers and his wife, Detroit City Councilwoman Monica Conyers, will begin airing radio ads this week urging voters to cast their ballots for uncommitted.The Uncommitted vote in fact is not a wasted vote, as delegates will be seated at the convention to represent those voters (assuming Michigan's delegates are re-instated, that is.)
If enough Democratic voters choose "uncommitted," delegates at the district or state level will be chosen to fill that void for the national Democratic convention in August. [...] It's presumed that most uncommitted delegates will favor Obama or Edwards, but once at the convention they can support any candidate in contention for the Democratic nomination.There's yet another factor here, which is that Democrats in Michigan can actually vote in the Republican primary, as many did in 2000, which led to McCain's victory there. This year, with many Democrats largely disenfranchised, will Democrats with a soft spot in their heart for McCain help hand McCain another victory or will they vote strategically to deny arguably the strongest Republican candidate an important early win?
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