Too much data!  I am predicting Hillary, but if you give me four buck, I'll be able to buy a venti latte at Starbucks.

Agreed Beltway. But we are talking about the DMR. However, the DMR maybe wrong. As you said, let's wait until Thursday.

Side note: Obama's been on the attack the last week or so, which signaled that his internals were bad. Now the DMR says otherwise. Why would he be going negative? This seems odd to me. I still think it is a 3 man/woman race. Can't wait until Thursday.

the weird thing is that the obama supporters i'm hearing say it's a self-fulfilling prophecy- that the poll will affect the outcome by encouraging obama supporters to stick with obama. why would they say that if they believed the poll?  it sounds like a tacit admission that they know it's high. i didn't believe that 14 point hillary lead from ARG last week, but i didn't kick it out of bed, either ;-)

the more independents you include in your sample, the more you inflate their influence, because they show up less reliably.  but you've got to weight them equally with people who have attended the last six caucuses, because all you have is self-report for intent to caucus. a "yes" is a "yes". and with first-time caucusers, it's all theoretical. they HAVE no history of caucusing. if you ask, "did you caucus in 2004?", that's real behavior you'd have a firmer base to use as a
prediction.

as an example, both mrs campskunk and my slacker dopehead nephew have stated their intent to take care of me when i'm 90 and need diapers. should i weight their statement equally?

I know I'm going against the polls here but my prediction is

Edwards

Clinton

Obama

basely solely on the reliance on first time voters for each candidate. For years and years, I've heard how so and so was going to win because first time voters were going to show up. Well, they largely never do and I have seen no evidence that makes this year any different than other years.

Obama could win in New Hampshire if there is a coordinated attack by Republicans against Hillary.  Registration is possible at the night of the caucuses, and so if a lot of Republicsns and Independents show up at the Iowa caucuses just to make sure Hillary doesn't win, the results could be skewed by those efforts.

Obama could win in Iowa if there is a coordinated attack by Republicans against Hillary.  Registration is possible at the night of the caucuses, and so if a lot of Republicsns and Independents show up at the Iowa caucuses just to make sure Hillary doesn't win, the results could be skewed by those efforts.