MyDD :: Open Thread (The latest numbers)

Open Thread (The latest numbers)

by Jerome Armstrong, Tue Jan 01, 2008 at 02:42:23 AM EST

Ah, 2008 has arrived, Bush's last year at last.

I just got done planning straight events in Iowa beginning tomorrow through Jan 2nd... I hope Trei doesn't mind skipping sleep tonight as we drive all across Iowa following the candidates, haha.

I wonder if the DMR numbers will impact the other pollsters turnout methodology in the last few days? The latest numbers from Zogby will be here in a few hours...

Update [2008-1-1 9:50:33 by Jerome Armstrong]:

Zogby: Clinton 30, Obama 26, Edwards 25, Richarsson 5, Biden 5

Opinion Research: Clinton 33, Obama 31, Edwards 22

RCP average: Clinton 28.6, Obama 27.0, Edwards 25.6, Richardson 6, Biden 5

Edwards is a bit behind in the latest polls, but given he's the favorite still for second choices, it puts the race right back into a 'toss-up' situation.

Tags: 2008 election (all tags)

Permalink :: 26 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: Open Thread (The latest numbers) (none / 0)

I think the DMR poll is bogus. They picked sample numbers that would make the poll come out the way they wanted it too. I'm sure Hillary supporters are very happy about the poll.

Edwards is leading Iowa and I think he will win.

by Progressive America on Tue Jan 01, 2008 at 02:51:28 AM EST

Re: Open Thread (The latest numbers) (none / 0)

I think you mean Obama supporters.

Hillary supporters have nothing to be happy about.

by Namtrix on Tue Jan 01, 2008 at 02:52:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Open Thread (The latest numbers) (none / 0)

Hillary supporters have a lot to be happy about. The media is going to try to push soft Edwards supporters to Obama over the next couple of days. I still think Edwards holds on, especially with his marathon coming up, but this will make it closer if Edwards loses votes to Obama because of this false poll.

There's a reason why DMR used this methodology and it wasn't common sense and history.

by Progressive America on Tue Jan 01, 2008 at 03:00:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Open Thread (The latest numbers) (2.00 / 1)

If Edwards truly does lose support to Obama from this poll, that is more likely to hurt Hillary. The Clintons would much rather Edwards win Iowa than Obama. Edwards doesn't have the type resources or organization to truly capitalize on an Iowa victory and compete against the Clinton Machine--Obama does.

by Namtrix on Tue Jan 01, 2008 at 03:43:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Open Thread (The latest numbers) (none / 0)

He is obviously referring to the possibility that Edwards losing votes to Obama could well help Hillary to an actual win in Iowa.

by georgep on Tue Jan 01, 2008 at 11:42:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Open Thread (The latest numbers) (none / 0)

The problem with that poll, though, is that it's going to shape the headlines for the last few days of the race. DMR is the most trusted polling outfit in regards to the caucus, so every newspaper that reports on polls is going to lead with the "Obama ahead" line tomorrow and Wednesday. Just looking at an ad for MSNBC's top political stories shows "Obama widens lead over Clinton in Iowa."

Those of us who know how to read polls, and know better than to take one single poll as gospel know the truth. But the media love polls, and unfortunately their coverage shapes the race more than we'd like.

by Kal on Tue Jan 01, 2008 at 02:56:01 AM EST
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Re: Open Thread (The latest numbers) (none / 0)

Establishment 14, people = 0

by dkmich on Tue Jan 01, 2008 at 10:34:24 AM EST
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You mean like the front page of HP. (none / 0)

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/

by dkmich on Tue Jan 01, 2008 at 10:38:32 AM EST
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Re: Shaping the headlines (none / 0)

You are sure right on that. Looking at the news today, everything is Obama leads, it seems that news MSM has been very fast to get back to their narrative of Obama beating Hillary. They almost seem exuberant.

by del on Tue Jan 01, 2008 at 10:12:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Robert Wexler For Vice-President (none / 0)

http://www.thenation.com/blogs/campaignm atters?bid=45&pid=264213

BOB WEXLER FOR VICE PRESIDENT

by dearreader on Tue Jan 01, 2008 at 07:23:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Open Thread (The latest numbers) (2.00 / 1)

DMR endorses Hillary. Don't turn on the most reliable poll now just because its numbers don't bore well for your candidate.

"Apparently they have an 11-month calendar over there that's missing the month of February," Obama strategist David Axelrod

by Jr1886 on Tue Jan 01, 2008 at 02:53:59 AM EST

Re: Open Thread (The latest numbers) (none / 0)

Yeah, exactly DMR endorsed Clinton and you wonder why they come with numbers like this. It's the methodology I question though, it doesn't make any sense why they pick this kind of sample.

by Progressive America on Tue Jan 01, 2008 at 03:02:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Open Thread (The latest numbers) (none / 0)

The editorial division endorses, I don't think polls are done from there.

by del on Tue Jan 01, 2008 at 10:16:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Open Thread (The latest numbers) (none / 0)

Namtrix,
He's losing his mind now. Don't ask for clarification, you know he's in the delusional stage now.

"Apparently they have an 11-month calendar over there that's missing the month of February," Obama strategist David Axelrod

by Jr1886 on Tue Jan 01, 2008 at 02:56:04 AM EST

Re: Open Thread (The latest numbers) (none / 0)

=new Bhutto tape-election postponed=

by ccokz on Tue Jan 01, 2008 at 08:21:52 AM EST

Re: Open Thread (The latest numbers) (none / 0)

Whether Obama wins or not, it will only make a difference if he picks up momentum going into New Hampshire. A big Clinton win in New Hampshire would erase Iowa's effect. And there is also the national scene, where the Clinton lead is by far insurmountable without some gaff or effective negative advertising.

Hillary is weak on Corportism. She claims she represents social workers, but what other corporations are going to have access to the Whitehouse? Disappointing is her pandering to the health care corporations in what seems to be a giveaway of 20% of health costs to these corporations.

This is DLC centrism at its worst and she needs to be taken to task for it.

Click on Peace, Propaganda, & The Promised Land and learn the truth about the I/P conflict.

by shergald on Tue Jan 01, 2008 at 08:38:50 AM EST

Re: Open Thread (The latest numbers) (2.00 / 1)

I love the image of Jimmy Carter's book. I gotta tell you though, don't underestimate the bump from Iowa. If Obama wins there Hillary's support will be softer than butter left overnite on a stove. Disagree? Just ask Jimmy Carter sometime!

by howardpark on Tue Jan 01, 2008 at 10:40:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Open Thread (The latest numbers) (none / 0)

No, no disagreement. However, it remains to be seen whether the spread among the top candidates is sufficient to call it a bump. For example, I can see Edwards winning, if one can call it that, in Iowa, but coming up way short in NH.

Click on Peace, Propaganda, & The Promised Land and learn the truth about the I/P conflict.

by shergald on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 07:27:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Open Thread (The latest numbers) (none / 0)

Interesting that now something by the DMR should be thrown away and not talked about, but when Hillary was respected it was big news and great stuff.

What would LBJ do?

by Socks The Cat on Tue Jan 01, 2008 at 08:50:02 AM EST

Re: Open Thread (The latest numbers) (none / 0)

I don't know what you read, but the DMR endorsement was barely discussed on the news.

by world dictator on Tue Jan 01, 2008 at 11:09:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Who is a 2nd Choicer? (none / 0)

Do they ask that of everybody or is it just Richardson, Dodd, Biden, Kucinich? Anybody know?

by howardpark on Tue Jan 01, 2008 at 10:37:57 AM EST

Re: Who is a 2nd Choicer? (none / 0)

''Important finding: Edwards was the second choice of 62% of those who supported other candidates that did not receive the required 15% of the vote. Clinton was the second choice of 21% and Obama of 17%.''

"Using the reallocation methodology InsiderAdvantage used in 2004 - which correctly indicated a fairly comfortable win for John Kerry - our new poll reveals that, if the caucuses were held today, the reallocated final outcome would be: Edwards 41%, Clinton 34% and Obama 25%."

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/0 1/01/second_choices_give_edwards_clear_l ead_in_iowa.html

Of course Edwards, Obama and Clinton won't be viable in every precinct either which these numbers don't account for.

If the DMR numbers were from ant other outfit I think we would all be shouting outlier. I guess though in the end what it tells us we really already knew - if lots of first-time attendees caucus then Obama wins big. I'm going to stick with averages, RCP

by conspiracy on Tue Jan 01, 2008 at 11:23:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Who is a 2nd Choicer? (none / 0)

I really have to learn to proof read before posting. ''Any other outfit''. ''RCP, Pollster etc''.

by conspiracy on Tue Jan 01, 2008 at 11:26:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Open Thread (The latest numbers) (2.00 / 1)

It's true- we were all waiting with baited breath for the poll and both Clinton or Edwards supporters would be breaking out the winner's hats if it showed they were first. Many times I said anything could still happen and I felt cautious about the over-confidence. But I also said I smelled 'victory'- perhaps it was a whiff of 'sulphur'- ha. In any case, it's no reason at all to give in to despair- we- or Edwards might still win- I still say anything can happen and might- we'll know 'soon enough.' All the cards have not been laid down on the table quite yet.

by reasonwarrior on Tue Jan 01, 2008 at 12:55:54 PM EST

a brush with (none / 0)

I am on a plane froom newark to omaha
The seat in front of me is occupied by gen clark who is talkiing polls like the rest of us.

via my blackberry

by fladem on Tue Jan 01, 2008 at 01:17:58 PM EST

Re: a brush with (none / 0)

So ... what does the General have to say about the polls? Don't just post and run on us like that.

Dare to be free.

by misscee on Tue Jan 01, 2008 at 02:33:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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