I wrote a few days ago that I didn't see a lot of forward momentum in Barack Obama's campaign, whether in the polls, in his rhetoric or in the central theme of his candidacy. When I saw him speak yesterday at a grassroots rally in Santa Barbara, his speech did nothing to really change that assessment, as far as his rhetoric at least; he's hitting on the same themes of unity and judgment (vis a vis Iraq) he's been touching on since I first saw him speak in March, although with a few new flourishes that are quite nice. My criticism was based on the frustration that, if this strategy has kept you pretty consistently in 2nd place without much progress, shouldn't you in fact change strategies? What it didn't take into account, however, was the much more important way his campaign is evolving and changing: the strategy on the ground.

In the past, Obama's rallies have been used as list-building and donation-soliciting (via sales of merchandise) operations. This time, the rally in Santa Barbara was an organizing tool, a chance to activate local supporters into implementing Obama's California strategy. The LA Times had an interesting article last week explaining how it differs from Clinton's:

Clinton has been wrapping up the high-profile endorsements -- Sen. Dianne Feinstein, Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa -- and building a traditional, centralized campaign organization. Obama has been trying to harness the energy that has brought thousands of people to his campaign rallies.

The Clinton campaign has established two state headquarters, one in San Francisco and the other in L.A., and has hired seven full-time staffers. Obama has an L.A. office and four paid staffers, with another likely to be added soon. Both have fleshed out the staffs at their headquarters with a raft of volunteers.

The Clinton campaign has focused on high-density Democratic regions such as L.A. and the Bay Area. The Obama campaign is trying to build networks in each congressional district; most state Democratic delegates are awarded to candidates based on how well they do in each district, not statewide. So far Obama has committees in 40 of the 53 districts.

It's this 53-congressional district strategy that was on full display yesterday, as Obama's California state campaign director as well as his CA field director spoke to motivate the crowd to join the Santa Barbara area local campaigns. Their goal is to create 53 cd teams, within which they will have a city team within which they will have community teams and then finally precinct teams. This is about engaging the people on the ground to spread the word about Obama, wear your buttons and stickers, they urged us, e-mail your friends. They're banking on the peer to peer method of communicating as being the most effective to win in such a huge state as California.

What's probably most striking, one might say audacious, about this strategy is that it presumes that what happens prior to February 5 will be, while perhaps not irrelevant, at least less of a factor than in the past due to the fact that February 5th represents essentially a national primary, and Obama believes he has the money and support to be able to launch a national campaign. His strategy in California also takes into account his appeal among independents who can vote in the Democratic primary but not the Republican primary. Another thing that was made clear yesterday was that out of the 21 states voting on February 5, California actually represents 25% of the delegates awarded that day. Obama clearly sees California as crucial to his winning and his strategy reflects this and shows that there is forward movement in his campaign, arguably where it matters most.