Former Republican Congressman Bob Schaffer, the presumptive Republican Senate nominee for the open seat in Colorado, is touting some new internal polling numbers matching him up against probable Democratic nominee Mark Udall, who currently serves as a Congressman from the state.
Hill Research Consultants (R), August 26-28, 600 RVs, MoE +/- 3.9%
Schaffer 40 Udall 45
These numbers aren't actually as good for the Schaffer campaign as they'd have you believe (and they're apparently shopping them all around Washington these days in the hopes of upending the assumption that this is Udall's race to lose at this point). Schaffer's 40 percent support is probably about the basement level support any Republican in the state is bound to get in a major statewide contest. Indeed, Congressman Bob Beauprez's problem in last fall's gubernatorial election was not getting to 40 percent but getting much above 40 percent. In real polling from the state (read: no Zogby internet surveys), Beauprez appeared to garner about the same level of support as Schaffer does now, settling in the high 30s just around 40 percent, and ended up receiving just 41 percent of the vote in what was, at the outset of the cycle, billed as one of the top gubernatorial elections in the country that cycle.
Naturally, the Schaffer campaign isn't releasing any more information from its poll, like methodology, for instance. But my hunch (and it's just a hunch) is that this poll doesn't push leaners quite as far as they should be pushed -- only so much so that Schaffer appears to be within striking distance of Udall. Perhaps I'm reading this race with too rose-colored of glasses. But at least for now, until if/when Mark Warner announces that he's in the Virginia Senate race or if/when Jean Shaheen announces she's running in New Hampshire, Colorado still represents the Democrats' top pick-up opportunity this fall.
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