I have in front of me Ron Suskind's The One Percent Doctrine, a truly excellent book.

Minutes after the noon broadcast, both campaigns moved on identical paths, expressing repugnance at bin Laden's attempt to sway the election: Kerry going first, with "as Americans, we are absolutely united in our determination to hunt down and destroy Osama bin Laden"; then Bush, with "Americans will not be intimidated or influenced by an enemy of our country.  I'm sure Senator Kerry agrees with this."  It was a hands-off issue, even for pundits who waded in during the hours after the speech to assess which campaign the statement might help.  To accede that a mass murderer was tipping the American election would, in essence, be giving in to terror.

Inside of CIA, of course, the analysis moved on a different track.  They had spent years, as had a similar bin Laden unit at FBI, parsing each expressed word of the al Qaeda leader and his deputy, Zawahiri.  What they'd learned over nearly a decade is that bin Laden speaks only for strategic reasons - and those reasons are debated with often startling depth inside the organization's leadership.  Their assessments, at day's end, are a distillate of the kind of secret, internal conversations that the American public, and by association the wider world community, were not sanctioned to hear: strategic analysis.

Today's conclusion: bin Laden's message was clearly designed to assist the President's reelection.

At the five o'clock meeting, once various reports on latest threats were delivered, [CIA Deputy Director] John McLaughlin opened the issue with the consensus view: "Bin Laden certainly did a nice favor today for the President."

Around the table, there were nods.  Mowatt-Larssen watched the proceedings.  There was some speculative talk of why - knowing that bin Laden acted out a strategic rationale - he would have done this, just as there was, Mowatt-Larssen recalled, of why the Soviets liked certain American leaders, such as Nixon: because they were consistent and predictable.  Jami Miscik talked about how bin Laden - being challenged by Zarqawi's rise - clearly understands how his primacy as al Qaeda's leader was supported by the continuation of his eye-to-eye struggle with Bush.  "Certainly," she offered, "he would want Bush to keep doing what he's doing for a few more years."

But an ocean of hard truths before them - such as what did it say about U.S. politics that bin Laden would want Bush reelected - remained untouched.

Facts are facts.  Osama is pushing for a republican to win in 08 so the he can be assured of more recruits for his army of hate.