Former Congressman Slattery Looking at Senate Bid in Kansas

With many Kansans looking forward towards 2010 when the state's senior Republican Senator Sam Brownback is slated to retire, leaving open the possibility that popular Democratic Governor Kathleen Sebelius will become the first member of her party to win a Senate election in the state since 1932 and only the fourth member of her party to ever represent the state in the Senate, this cycle's Senate election in the state has been overlooked by a number of people. But one person apparently with an eye on the race is former Democratic Congressman Jim Slattery, as the The Kansas City Star reports:

Jim Slattery, the former six-term congressman and a golden boy of the Kansas Democratic Party in the 1970s, is considering a run for U.S. Senate next year against incumbent Republican Pat Roberts.

[...]

A Slattery decision to enter the race would be a huge achievement for the ongoing revival of the state Democratic Party. The party, with its growing roster of statewide officials, including Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, failed to provide a first-tier challenger to Roberts in 2002 or to his fellow senator, Sam Brownback, in 2004.

The Associated Press gives us a bit of an idea what a Slattery campaign might look like.

Slattery said the war in Iraq, health care, immigration, the budget and the state's role in the global economy are key issues in the race next year.

As the folks at The Star note, Roberts is hardly immune to criticism over the war in Iraq (criticism, one might add, that helped an insurgent Nancy Boyda defeat Republican Congressman Jim Ryun in the state last fall). Specifically, Roberts' role as chairman of the Senate intelligence panel in the run up to the war in Iraq, as well as his stonewalling in the period since, make him a prime target for a Democrat able to articulate clearly and decisively on the issue of Iraq.

Now I'm not under the delusion that this would be an easy win for Slattery. Sure, unweighted simple averaging shows that Kansas Democrats received about 49.6 percent of the statewide two-party vote for Congress last fall, winning two of four seats in the state. Sure, both Governor Sebelius and Paul Morrison, the Democratic nominee for Attorney General, both received about 58 percent of the vote last fall. But Kansas is a tough nut for any Democrat to crack, particularly in a presidential election.

That said, and I'm going without much knowledge of Slattery (where's my 1994 Almanac of American Politics when I need it...), but it would seem that he could at least give the Democrats a chance to play in Kansas, something they haven't done in a Senate election in the state in a long time. And though Kansas would probably stack up as the Democrats' 12th, 13th or 14th best pick-up opportunity in the Senate, such large swings have been seen in the past (the GOP most recently picked up 12 seats in 1980, the Democrats last picked up 13 seats in 1958).



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Slattery Looking at Senate Bid in Kansas (none / 0)

50 state strategy.  Even if this is an uphill battle that probably won't get much support, it will keep money flowing to Pat Roberts and it will keep money out of more important races.  Good deal.  

Something worth noting.  Pat Roberts is 71, will be 72 by election day.  Getting kind of up there to where people will start worrying about his age.  Slattery is 59 and will be 60 by election day.  A slight sense of youth over Roberts.  


by JeremiahTheMessiah on Thu Sep 06, 2007 at 11:41:02 AM EST

Age Not the Only Factor (none / 0)

Here are five reasons why Kansas could offer a competitive Senate race:
  1. Roberts' unintimidating approval numbers
  2. Roberts oversaw intelligence scandals
  3. Kansas is growing more Dem-friendly
  4. National GOP & NRSC will have their hands full elsewhere to give KS any Senate support
  5. The KS-GOP is in major turmoil

Check out the Guru's blog at http://www.senateguru.com/
by Senate Guru on Thu Sep 06, 2007 at 01:25:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

age def a factor (none / 0)

roberts looks hideous - Slats still looks youthful and quite handsome - he could run circles around Roberts and really energize young people in the state who will be coming out to vote for President - which again - helps down ticket too


by alicescheshirecat on Thu Sep 06, 2007 at 02:59:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: age def a factor (none / 0)

Kansas is not known for its energetic political youth.

Republican incumbants have a tremendous political advantage in Kansas.

I agree that Roberts deserves to lose for numerous reasons- but he is not viewed as a religious conservative or a right wing nut and he is not aligned with the Sam Brownback crowd.

It has been my understanding the Jerry Moran (R, KS-01) would take over Roberts seat unless he decides to be governor.  He could easily win either office.


d
by d on Thu Sep 06, 2007 at 04:45:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

When we last saw Jim Slattery (none / 0)

he was losing by 28 points to Bill Graves in 1994, while running behind the entire statewide ticket (Slattery won 35%, Fran Lee won 42%, Sally Thompson won 55%, Richard Schodorf won 36%, and Kathleen Sebelius won 59%)

[fun note: Roberts defeated Sally Thompson by 28 points in 1996]

I don't even think that Sebelius would defeat Roberts here.

(also, when they say nobody big challenged Roberts in 2002, they forget to note that nobody at all from the Democrats challenged him)

Another problem for Slattery probably involves him living in Virginia and working for Wiley Rein. Slattery experienced problems in 1994 due to his Washington ties, and probably living there for awhile won't help him shake those problems.


by RBH on Thu Sep 06, 2007 at 11:52:45 AM EST

Re: When we last saw Jim Slattery (none / 0)

Remember, though, that 1994 was as bad a year for Democrats as there has been in the last two decades, and 2008 is not shaping up to be such a cycle for the party (perhaps looking more like 1980 for the Republicans).


Blogging here @ MyDD.com. Twittering @jonathanhsinger.
by Jonathan Singer on Thu Sep 06, 2007 at 12:07:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: When we last saw Jim Slattery (none / 0)

You forget that he ran behind the entire ticket, in a year where Democrats still easily won two state offices in Kansas (including a pickup).

Stuff like that doesn't exactly make him look like the victim of a tidal wave.


by RBH on Thu Sep 06, 2007 at 12:18:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

True, but (none / 0)

he was also a member of a Dem-controlled Congress that was extremely unpopular at the time, across the nation.

So he may have been especially hurt by being a "Washington Democrat" at the time.


by brownsox on Thu Sep 06, 2007 at 01:32:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: True, but (none / 0)

Actually, I think the thing that really hurt Slattery was the Nancy Kassebaum ad.

When someone that ridiculously popular decides to do a TV ad for your opponent claiming he's the "best choice," you're pretty well dead in the water.


The Kansas GOP under Kris Kobach
by Shocker Jim on Fri Sep 07, 2007 at 04:51:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: When we last saw Jim Slattery (none / 0)

Bill Graves was a liberal Republican who won a lot of Democratic crossover votes.  He held the entire Republican base, too, even though the wingnuts hated him with a fiery passion.

Pat Roberts won't have those advantages over Slattery.


Read Brian's Utah Weblog
by Brian Watkins on Thu Sep 06, 2007 at 12:11:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: When we last saw Jim Slattery (none / 0)

1996 exit poll: 20% of Democrats voted for Roberts over Thompson.

I would not say that Bill Graves was a liberal Republican either. Just a competant politician who was a Republican.

Now a days, i'd imagine that the percentage of Democrats for Roberts would be lower. But then again, it's the Republican voters that would have to split and vote for Slattery here.


by RBH on Thu Sep 06, 2007 at 12:17:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: When we last saw Jim Slattery (none / 0)

It is worth noting that at the time KS-02 was a relatively conservative district.  He had to win over crossover support to win in in the first place (assuming I'm reading this right)


by JeremiahTheMessiah on Thu Sep 06, 2007 at 12:19:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: When we last saw Jim Slattery (none / 0)

KS-02 is still a conservative (but not southern) district.

In fact, you can make the case that the district used to be more liberal when Slattery held the seat because the district included all of Lawrence at the time.  It is currently split between the 2nd and 3rd district.


d
by d on Thu Sep 06, 2007 at 04:40:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: When we last saw Jim Slattery (none / 0)

It's worth noting that right now we have 0 challengers to Roberts.  Like him or not, Slattery is a start in the right direction.  (Having a candidate, that is - Let alone one with legislative experience to branch his campaign off of).  


by JeremiahTheMessiah on Thu Sep 06, 2007 at 12:41:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: When we last saw Jim Slattery (none / 0)

What offices were the other statewide candidates running for? I know that Sebelius won the post of Insurance Commisioner, but what office did Sally Thompson win?

As for Slattery, I recall reading that he was doing well up until the last few weeks of the campaign, but Graves hit upon Kansan's dislike of Clinton and helped drive Slattery into the ground. Earlier in the campaign, Jim was doing quite well: he won a three-candidate primary with 53% while Graves won 41% in a four-candidate field.


by elessar on Thu Sep 06, 2007 at 08:12:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: When we last saw Jim Slattery (none / 0)

I'm pretty sure Sally Thompson was the State Treasurer.


The Kansas GOP under Kris Kobach
by Shocker Jim on Fri Sep 07, 2007 at 04:45:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Running a Virginian agaisnt Roberts? (none / 0)

How long as Slattery lived in Virginia, and when would he have to move to Kansas to run for its Senate seat?


by Unabridged on Thu Sep 06, 2007 at 12:11:42 PM EST

Re: Running a Virginian agaisnt Roberts? (none / 0)

He's got enough money.  I think he hit big in real estate or something?  I didn't readd the whole thing.  I'm assuming he has a home in Kansas.  


by JeremiahTheMessiah on Thu Sep 06, 2007 at 12:18:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Running a Virginian agaisnt Roberts? (none / 0)

I think an online database of Kansas voters is still somewhere on the internets, and maybe that can be used to see if Slattery is on the voting rolls in Kansas (and the database lists each time someone votes too).


by RBH on Thu Sep 06, 2007 at 12:20:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Running a Virginian agaisnt Roberts? (none / 0)

All the Constitution requires on that front is that "when elected", he "be an inhabitant of that state."

Hopefully, Slattery will get us better than nowhere.


by Adam B on Thu Sep 06, 2007 at 02:54:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Former Congressman Slattery (none / 0)

And how many times before that did Slattery win his district before finally losing once?

I want to see all 22 GOP-held Senate seats get to third tier or better. So far, the Kansas election has been near the bottom in terms of competitiveness, and a Slattery candidacy would give it a big lift.

Actually winning would be wonderful, of course, but the staying-in-the-real-world goal is simply making Kansas a real two-party state. Going from solid red to light red to swing to blue doesn't ordinarily happen overnight, and we may have to be content with losing, and then losing by a little less, and then less than that, before finally having a blue Kansas. Newt ran and lost three consecutive times in what was once solid-blue Georgia, before finally getting the GOP's foot in the door. We can perform similar tricks, as long as we make some progress in the left direction, with each election that passes.

Maybe Slattery wins. Or maybe Roberts wins, but has to raise money in his home state, making it that much easier for us to defend Louisiana and take Colorado, Oregon, Maine, etc. Maybe that many more Kansas voters will consider the Democratic party after rarely hearing its voice in the prairie.  Either way, it's worthwhile.


by admiralnaismith on Thu Sep 06, 2007 at 12:20:45 PM EST

Re: Former Congressman Slattery (none / 0)

Slattery served in the House from 1983-1995. So, he was elected in 1982 and then reelected five times. He did not lose the House race in 1994 as he instead ran for Governor that year. (Wikipedia)


by Sven at My Silver State on Thu Sep 06, 2007 at 12:51:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Former Congressman Slattery (none / 0)

Actually winning would be wonderful, of course, but the staying-in-the-real-world goal is simply making Kansas a real two-party state.

Yes!  That's exactly the point.  The money spent defending Roberts is money the Repubs don't have to spend elsewhere.

Of course, we also don't know that Roberts won't have something come up between now and Nov. 2008 that causes him to be damaged goods.


The Kansas GOP under Kris Kobach
by Shocker Jim on Fri Sep 07, 2007 at 05:16:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Jim Slattery (none / 0)

Being from Kansas, I do hope we get a serious candidate to run against Roberts.

But, it is highly unlikely that Roberts will lose.  Any thought that Jim Slattery has of running will be tinged with that notion and the fact that he was utterly rejected by Kansans for governor in 1994.

Due to that fact, I anticipate that he will not run for the seat- especially if he has been living in Virginia.


d
by d on Thu Sep 06, 2007 at 01:13:29 PM EST

Re: Jim Slattery (none / 0)

I met Slattery a couple of weeks ago. He talked about "poll numbers" showing that Kansans are against the war, and, how Roberts screwed up intelligence before the war. Slattery is slow to climb aboard any issues that relate to his own convictions. IN fact, we wonder if he has convictions...

However, here's the problem. Jerry Moran (GOP Congressman from KS-01) is actually the person that Slattery will probably run against.

Insiders say that Roberts will announce that he is not seeking re-election in early 2008. Then, Jerry Moran, who has been chomping at the bit, will announce his candidacy for Roberts seat.

The problem for Slattery is that while Jerry Moran has an extremely conservative voting record, he has managed, like Teflon, to not have any of it stick to him - AND, MOST IMPORTANTLY, Jerry Moran travels back to Kansas EVERY weekend and has done this consistently for 10 years.

On the reverse, Slattery has not lived in Kansas for 15 years.

Now, most of us are highly critical of Moran's traveling back to Kansas every weekend because it's costly - and, his lack of presence in Washington has meant that he has not grown close to decision makers. Even after 10 years in Congress, Moran is still not a power player and has minimal influence among his colleagues of any party. So, many of us see Moran's return to Kansas each weekend to campaign as a fault.

However, voters are likely to see this differently. They are likely to see Moran as a home boy and Slattery as a lobbyist (which he is) from Washington. Slattery could lose the race on that alone.


Everyday Citizen
www.everydaycitizen.com
by Everyday Citizen on Sun Sep 09, 2007 at 12:35:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Jim Slattery (none / 0)

I don't mean to be overly negative about Slattery's chances.

However, I guess what I really mean is that Slattery's going to have to stop saying "I'm getting calls from people who are trying to encourage me to run so I'm just thinking about it."

He's going to have to start showing Kansans what he's made of - what he cares about - does he REALLY care about the uninsured, the high cost of healthcare, the outsourcing of jobs, the over-zealous rush to build water hogging industries on top of a dwindling underground aquifer, the high cost of gasoline, etc -

Or is he just willing to reduce his extreme lobbyist salary to the smaller, but generous, senate salary as a favor to us?

Who is he and is he recovered from his previous campaign loss? Is he a fighter? Will he go toe to toe with Moran and really fight?


Everyday Citizen
www.everydaycitizen.com
by Everyday Citizen on Sun Sep 09, 2007 at 12:42:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

if anything (none / 0)

it would help protect someone like Boyda from someone like Clinton at the top of the ticket who can really hurt red district democrats.  Someone like Slats with hometown values and a loyalty to KS could really help serve as a cushion.

Plus it'd probably help the party have a nice dry run at Sebelius's 2010 senate race


by alicescheshirecat on Thu Sep 06, 2007 at 02:52:38 PM EST

Re: if anything (none / 0)

yes...it would help as a dry run for Kathleen (Sebelius).  Although she has already been elected to statewide office four times.

As far as Hillary goes, I think she would hurt all down-ballot races because democratic turnout for her will be low in Kansas and will increase Republican turnout.  You are correct that Slattery on the ballot might help boost democratic turnout- but only if people think he can win.  It will be hard to convince people of that.

I have never heard of anyone in Kansas referring to him as "Slats"- but you learn something new everyday.


d
by d on Thu Sep 06, 2007 at 04:36:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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