Virginia IS on the Map for the Democrats in 2008

We've been watching Virginia turn more blue for a long time, and no doubt this is an exciting development. Indeed it seems clear that Virginia is, at least right now, the Democrats' best pick up opportunity in the Senate, that the Democrats have a chance to pick up one or two congressional seats in the state in 2008, and that the party is expected to pick up seats in the state legislature this fall. But is Virginia on the map for the Democrats in the presidential election in 2008? Can the Democrats carry the state in a presidential election for the first time since the 1964 landslide? New polling seems to indicate that Virginia might actually be quite ripe territory for the Democrats on the presidential level next fall.

A new SurveyUSA poll shows that Virginia -- a state that hasn't gone Democratic for president since 1964 -- could be a Dem pick-up in 2008, with Republicans winning only one of nine match-ups:

Clinton (D) 50%, Giuliani (R) 44%
Clinton (D) 50%, Thompson (R) 43%
Clinton (D) 53%, Romney (R) 38%
Obama (D) 46%, Giuliani (R) 45%
Thompson (R) 47%, Obama (D) 45%
Obama (D) 50%, Romney (R) 38%
Edwards (D) 48%, Giuliani (R) 43%
Edwards (D) 49%, Thompson (R) 39%
Edwards (D) 52%, Romney (R) 33%

The margin of error is ±4.5%, so few of these leads are beyond the margin. It still says something, though, that polling here could even be close in the first place.

As Eric Kleefeld over at TPM Election Central correctly notes, a number of these matchups are within the margin of error, so even though the Democrats currently appear to hold a lead, such leads may in fact be fleeting. Yet considering the fact that George W. Bush carried Virginia by 8 points in 2004, the fact that the Democrats are within the margin of error in the state in named head-to-head matchups -- let alone leading (albeit within the margin of error) -- augurs extremely well for the party's hopes of regaining the White House in 2008.



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second poll (none / 0)

Actually the last Ras. poll also showed Hillary beating all GOPers although by a smaller margin.


Hillary: We will finally have a president who doesn't mind pulling over and asking for directions. Am I right, ladies?
by areyouready on Tue Sep 25, 2007 at 02:11:58 PM EST

I would like Hillary supporters to address (none / 0)

the issue of polls overstating support for women because people are reluctant to admit to a pollster that they won't vote for a woman.

Do Hillary supporters simply not believe in this phenomenon? Or do they think that Hillary will be leading by enough in the polls that it won't matter if her share of the vote is a few points lower?


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by desmoinesdem on Tue Sep 25, 2007 at 02:22:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I would like Hillary supporters to address (none / 0)

I believe the opposite is true.  In NY state polls for Hillary Clinton routinely understated her true support.  She then generally ended up with more support when all votes were tallied.  
I think we are seeing that phenomenon once again.  A long-time NY based pollster discovered the phenomenon and surmised that for some it had to do with being surrounded by rabid Hillary-haters, so their true leanings would not show until the person stepped into the voting booth.

We'll know in a bit over 3 months, but in my opinion, she'll end up with a bit more than her actual poll numbers state on primary/caucus day.


by georgep on Tue Sep 25, 2007 at 02:34:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I would like Hillary supporters to address (none / 0)

In the state of NY, Clinton's actual numbers were higher than all pre-election polls due to the higher voter support by women voters on election day.

Secondly, its Obama who should be more concerned with that phenomenon. There's a history of "White voters" who play that game.

Again, Edwards & Obama would love to be in Hillary's shoes right now. Not the other way around. People keep trying to spin it.

When will die hard Edwards & Obama supporters REALIZE that Clinton's strength is REAL!

That's the real question.


by labanman on Tue Sep 25, 2007 at 02:55:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I would like Hillary supporters to address (2.00 / 3)

I believe the opposite is true and here's why. The Clinton campaign has spent the last four years building the kind of high-tech micro-targeted get out the vote operation that the Republicans have used since 2000 to kill the Democrats within 72 hours of the election.

The major push of the Clinton operation is speaking to and turning out womem and, specifically, single women. In their 16 test market states in 2004, they reached over 2.5 million women with get out the vote messages and increased the turnout of single women by five to sixteen percent, proportional to the intensity of the test market efforts. This has been a dry run in preparation for 2008.

I'm not sure that Democrats truly understand the scale of the Clinton campaign. Thomas Schaller, the author of "Whistling Past Dixie" is a Democratic pundit and political science professor who specializes in demographic targeting. He has not endorsed a candidate, but the campaigns have clearly shared some of their behind the scenes planning. On C-SPAN Sunday, he said that the Clinton campaign has built a general election infrastructure that dwarfs any other Presidential campaign in history. He echoed what he wrote in a recent Salon.com article:

...she is building a campaign organization so complete it will effectively serve as a shadow Democratic National Committee. She will not need so much as a dollar, voter targeting list, volunteer hour, press release, focus group result or research memo from DNC chair Howard Dean.

He contrasts her position to Bill Clinton, who wrapped up the nominating process in July 1992 completely broke with a DNC that was also broke. Not Hillary Clinton. She is going into the general election needing nothing from the DNC (which currently has just $2.6 million in the bank after debt).

Schaller said on C-SPAN that the conventional wisdom is completely backwards. That Clinton is most vulnerable in the primary race, but that the awe-inspiring campaign infrastructure she has built will make her formidable in the general election. Again, Schaller is coming at it as an expert in demographics, targeting, where Democratic votes come from, etc. The Clinton campaign is built to identify Democratic voters and get them to the polls with 21st century marketing techniques.

This shock n' awe campaign is targeted at women voters.

Oh, and BTW. I know that you are a big "downticket" races person. Do you want downticket candidates to piggy back on the Clinton's $100+ million microtargeted get-out-the-vote machine? Or make do with the $2.6 million the DNC has in the kitty for get out the vote operations? Remember, every voter Clinton's machine drives to the polls is a voter who will almost certainly vote for Democrats in local races -- single women, African Americans, Latinos, gay voters, etc.


by hwc on Tue Sep 25, 2007 at 03:12:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I would like Hillary supporters to address (none / 0)

You make some very interesting points.  And although I am decidedly NOT a HRC fan, I don't doubt that if she wins the nomination she will run an essentially perfect technical campaign.  My concern, which may or may not be valid, is that she may HAVE to run an unprecedented microtargeting campaign in order to win.

It's beyond dispute that a large segment of the population has made up its mind about Hillary and not in a good way.  Personally, I think that's largely through no fault of her own but the Right Wing noise machine is very good at what they do and they had 8 years to attack her on the national stage.  Because of such high negatives, Hillary as the Dem nominee is facing close to 50% of past voters who are predisposed to vote for whoever runs against her.  Is she a good enough politician to nonetheless win by turning out more voters, especially women, who are devoted to her?  Sure.  Is she ever gonna win 55%?  nope.  

One of the reasons I prefer Obama is b/c I really do think he CAN change the map.  In the interests of full disclosure, however, there's also a much higher probability that he makes a mistake than HRC.  Ultimately, that's how I see the choice shaping up in this elections.  Do you prefer a technician with a low ceiling who nonetheless knows exactly what she needs to do to win, or the higher-upside, higher-risk choice who might just unite the country.  Either choice is defensible.


by HSTruman on Tue Sep 25, 2007 at 05:36:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I would like Hillary supporters to address (none / 0)

[quote]You make some very interesting points.  And although I am decidedly NOT a HRC fan, I don't doubt that if she wins the nomination she will run an essentially perfect technical campaign.  My concern, which may or may not be valid, is that she may HAVE to run an unprecedented microtargeting campaign in order to win.[/quote]

Any Democrat has to run a 21st century targeted get out the vote operation or face defeat. This is WHY the Republicans won in 2000 and 2004. They were miles ahead of the stone age Democrats (who still believed that going door to door in specific neighborhoods passed for modern marketing).

Think about it. You can log on to Amazon.com and up pop recommendations of books and CDs based on YOUR buying habits. That's how the Republicans have been targeting their message and get out the vote.

Hillary Clinton has no intention of losing that battle. That's why she's been building the infrastructure to compete on that playing field for five years. That's why she did test marketing of the infrastructure in 16 battleground states in the 2004 and 2006 election...proven marketing techniques to find out what ads work, whether e-mail works, what kind of phone calls work. Whether mailing to all females turning 18 in a state is cost effective. This is operation is idling in the background ready to turn out the vote. Why do you think Clinton has spend the last seven months speaking to interst groups -- black beauticians conventions, Indian Americans, Latino groups, nurses. She's building the voter database -- the engine that drives the operation. Not just random names from campaign rallies, but membership lists from targeted organizations, in addition to millions invested in commercial lists and top computer geeks hired from amazon.com to build the database software.

Ask the other candidates what prepation they have in place for the general election.


by hwc on Tue Sep 25, 2007 at 06:14:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I would like Hillary supporters to address (none / 0)


One of the reasons I like coming to this site is to see the latest straws that anti-Hillary people are clinging to.

No, Hillary obloquy or rejection as a women in public is socially acceptable, and has been since the early Nineties and Rush Limbaugh.  If your reason is bigotry and you're ashamed, there's a widely acceptable dodge in scorning her for not ditching Bill due to the Monica thing, blaming her for NAFTA or the rejection of healthcare reform in 1993, saying that Bill will run the show if she's elected, or any number of other mostly imaginary offenses.


by killjoy on Tue Sep 25, 2007 at 07:21:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Edwards IS on the Map (none / 0)

Virginia
Edwards (D) 48%, Giuliani (R) 43%
Edwards (D) 49%, Thompson (R) 39%
Edwards (D) 52%, Romney (R) 33%

Survey USA - September 24, 2007
New Mexico - Romney
Edwards leads by 20%, Obama leads by 19%, Clinton leads by 15%
New Mexico - Thompson
Edwards leads by 15%, Clinton leads by 11%, Obama leads by 11%,

Quinnipiac University - August 23, 2007
Pennsylvania
vs. Mitt Romney
Edwards leads by 24%, Clinton leads by 15%, Obama leads by 15%

vs. Fred Thompson
Edwards leads by 19%, Clinton leads by 14%, Obama leads by 12%,

vs. Rudy Giuliani
Clinton leads by 2%, Obama trails by 5%, Edwards trails by 2%


by mrobinsong on Tue Sep 25, 2007 at 03:45:05 PM EST

2007 is important too (2.00 / 1)

2007 is a major election year for Virginia, and has huge implications for 2008.

The 2008 ground game gets built in the 2007 election. The more districts we win in the General Assembly (the legislature), the better ground support our Democratic candidates have in 2008.

And perhaps even more important is the stakes in 2009/2010 in Virginia. 2009 is the governor's race, and that plus this year's state senate elections will make or brake the redistricting due after the 2010 census.

And that redistricting could turn Virginia blue for a LONG time.

Bottom line, if you want to REALLY make a difference in 2008, donate to Virginia candidates  in 2007.


by Paradox13 on Tue Sep 25, 2007 at 04:47:09 PM EST

Re: 2007 is important too (none / 0)

It's also possible we might pick up the State Senate, right?  From what I've read that's less likely, but I was under the impression that both Kaine and Senator Webb are really trying to raise enough money to make it a possibility...


by HSTruman on Tue Sep 25, 2007 at 05:38:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 2007 is important too (none / 0)


What I read a few weeks ago in the WaPo is that Republicans think there are eight strong Democratic challenges for state Senate seats and twelve or so for Assembly seats.  Democrats need a gain of four to get majority in the state Senate, but a gain of eleven for majority in the Assembly.

The article was a lot about Republican gloom- an undertone of being fairly sure that Virginia voters had concluded their Party no longer useful for much of anything constructive in state government.

That being said, there's something of a pattern of states taking three elections to go from one party control by the one Party to one party control by the other, at a rate of one chamber or the governor office per election.


by killjoy on Tue Sep 25, 2007 at 07:13:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 2007 is important too (none / 0)

Tim Kaine's page on ActBlue has a good rundown of Virginia's Democratic legislative candidates.

if there's one candidate that I would recommend donating to, it's Janet Oleszek, who is running against wingnut Ken Cuccinelli in the 37th Senate district, which is trending blue (Kaine won 56% and Webb won 54% there).


by johnny longtorso on Tue Sep 25, 2007 at 07:28:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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