We've been watching Virginia turn more blue for a long time, and no doubt this is an exciting development. Indeed it seems clear that Virginia is, at least right now, the Democrats' best pick up opportunity in the Senate, that the Democrats have a chance to pick up one or two congressional seats in the state in 2008, and that the party is expected to pick up seats in the state legislature this fall. But is Virginia on the map for the Democrats in the presidential election in 2008? Can the Democrats carry the state in a presidential election for the first time since the 1964 landslide? New polling seems to indicate that Virginia might actually be quite ripe territory for the Democrats on the presidential level next fall.
A new SurveyUSA poll shows that Virginia -- a state that hasn't gone Democratic for president since 1964 -- could be a Dem pick-up in 2008, with Republicans winning only one of nine match-ups:Clinton (D) 50%, Giuliani (R) 44%
Clinton (D) 50%, Thompson (R) 43%
Clinton (D) 53%, Romney (R) 38%
Obama (D) 46%, Giuliani (R) 45%
Thompson (R) 47%, Obama (D) 45%
Obama (D) 50%, Romney (R) 38%
Edwards (D) 48%, Giuliani (R) 43%
Edwards (D) 49%, Thompson (R) 39%
Edwards (D) 52%, Romney (R) 33%The margin of error is ±4.5%, so few of these leads are beyond the margin. It still says something, though, that polling here could even be close in the first place.
As Eric Kleefeld over at TPM Election Central correctly notes, a number of these matchups are within the margin of error, so even though the Democrats currently appear to hold a lead, such leads may in fact be fleeting. Yet considering the fact that George W. Bush carried Virginia by 8 points in 2004, the fact that the Democrats are within the margin of error in the state in named head-to-head matchups -- let alone leading (albeit within the margin of error) -- augurs extremely well for the party's hopes of regaining the White House in 2008.
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