MyDD :: NC-Sen: Senator Dean Smith?

NC-Sen: Senator Dean Smith?

by Jonathan Singer, Thu Sep 20, 2007 at 12:09:28 PM EST

I'm not a big Tarheels fan (well, I'm plain not a Tarheels fan), but this (.pdf) sounds intriguing.

Public Policy Polling's latest survey of likely North Carolina voters finds that former UNC basketball coach and Democrat Dean Smith would present a formidable challenge to Senator Elizabeth Dole. If a Senate election were held today between them voters would choose Dole over Smith 41% to 35%. Dean Smith fares better than any other Democrat we have tested other than Governor Mike Easley.

In a more likely scenario, PPP tested State Representative Grier Martin against Elizabeth Dole in two different fashions. First was a question with no description other than their elective office. Dole beat Martin, 45% to 30%. Later in the survey the respondents were given an extensive biography of Rep. Martin. After the description Martin topped Dole 47% to 40%.

"We wanted an exercise to show how an informed vote question can influence the results," said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. "It also shows the incredible potential of a Grier Martin candidacy."

Also according to the survey, 45% of voters approve of the job Dole is doing as Senator, while 40% disapprove.

While a Dean Smith candidacy might not be likely and even if it came to fruition it might cause some complications (there are more than a few Duke fans in the state who probably aren't Dean Smith fans), this is nevertheless kind of a neat situation to at least consider.

But taking a step back, these numbers out of North Carolina indicate that we might just have a race on our hands. With an approval rating under 50 percent and less than 50 percent support in a named, uninformed head-to-head matchup against a Democratic state Representative, Liddy Dole looks very beatable. It wouldn't be easy, no doubt. But given the Democrats' clearly superior fundraising capability this cycle and the fact that the Republicans are already on the defense all over the country, the North Carolina Senate race could be one of those sleepers that ends up coming alive at the end in a way that really causes problems for the incumbent.

Tags: NC-Sen, Elizabeth Dole, Dean Smith, North Carolina Tarheels, North Carolina, College Basketball, Senate 2008 (all tags)

Permalink :: 45 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: NC-Sen: Senator Dean Smith? (none / 0)

I hope he does. Liddy Dole does zippy-do-dah for NC and doesn't even have a home there.

by benny06 on Thu Sep 20, 2007 at 12:12:28 PM EST

He's not running. (2.00 / 1)

He is a big supporter of local Democrats, he was at the John Edwards birthday party recently. This is just one of those things local Dems wish for every 6 years.

BlueNC - Progressive NC Politics

by Robert P on Thu Sep 20, 2007 at 12:24:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

BTW about this being a sleeper? (2.00 / 2)

Not everyone is asleep.
: )

BlueNC - Progressive NC Politics

by Robert P on Thu Sep 20, 2007 at 12:26:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: He's not running: Too Bad (none / 0)

You're probably right. It's too bad Brad Miller decided not to run for Senate either.

At least Smith supports real Tarheels!

by benny06 on Thu Sep 20, 2007 at 12:27:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: He's not running: Too Bad (none / 0)

Brad Miller would be terrible. Too wimpy for NC as a whole.

by OE on Thu Sep 20, 2007 at 06:32:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NC-Sen: Senator Dean Smith? (none / 0)

Two words, Benny, "David Kirby".

Maybe he'll change his mind, in the end.

You can best believe that the NC Republican Party is praying for someone other than Kirby, someone other than Edwards, and they rather go up against Beverly Perdue than Richard Moore.

If NC Democrats nominate Moore, I don't think many Republicans will run. If they nominae Perdue, we'll see Richard Vinroot running again, and that 6'7 man standing beside that around 5'2 woman in a debate would be too much "VISCERALLY" for most voters to overcome.

Vinroot has run multiple times and lost. 2008 would probably be his year, in that situation...sadly.

by OE on Thu Sep 20, 2007 at 06:31:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NC-Sen: Senator Dean Smith? (none / 0)

Aren't the Democratic and Republican primaries at the same time? How can the Republicans adjust their nominee after the selection of the Dem nominee?

by micha1976 on Fri Sep 21, 2007 at 06:50:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NC-Sen: Senator Dean Smith? (none / 0)

Well, maybe I should have said, "IF IT'S CLEAR THE DEMOCRATS ARE GOING TO NOMINATE MOORE..." if you want to be that picky.

by OE on Fri Sep 21, 2007 at 08:35:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NC-Sen: Senator Dean Smith? (none / 0)

I have a friend who was a proud Jesse Helms supporter back in the day, but would vote for Dean Smith for anything, including Pope. This probably will never come to pass, but it's funny to think of him voting for a Democrat.

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Thu Sep 20, 2007 at 12:12:50 PM EST

Re: NC-Sen: Senator Dean Smith? (none / 0)

Seriously, at this point, are there Duke graduates that are Democrats that won't vote for Dean Smith in '08 were he to run? Would they really want Dole to win?

John McCain: Bush right to veto kids health insurance expansion

by Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle on Thu Sep 20, 2007 at 12:15:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NC-Sen: Senator Dean Smith? (none / 0)

I dunno, Duke fans do suck a lot.

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Thu Sep 20, 2007 at 12:29:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NC-Sen: Senator Dean Smith? (none / 0)

Gee, thanks a lot.

Yeah, I'd vote for Dean against Dole, but I'd bring an emesis tray.

by alteran on Thu Sep 20, 2007 at 01:23:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NC-Sen: Senator Dean Smith? (none / 0)

Duke alumni tend to be from elsewhere. Maybe a certain percentage of current students would vote against Smith on this factor but this would be more than compensated by the large numbers voting for Smith because of Tarheel support.

by carter1 on Thu Sep 20, 2007 at 12:40:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NC-Sen: Senator Dean Smith? (2.00 / 1)

There may not be as many Dukies as Heels, but there are darn near as many NCSU partisans. They have as much animosity towards Smith/UNC as the Dukies do, they just don't get the same coverage for it.

Dean was quite a polarizing figure, and I wouldn't be surprised if there was a "dog whistle" situation where more people ended up stampeding away as stampeding towards.

Sad, but true.

Two things are true: 1) much as I dislike the man, he's a solid progressive, and 2) there's no way he's going to run. Somebody threw his name in their study to catch a headline.

by alteran on Thu Sep 20, 2007 at 01:32:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I'm Duke Law '93, Dukies would NOT vote against... (none / 0)

...Dean Smith because of his UNC fame. No, not a "certain percentage" would do so...almost no one would. Virtually everyone separates their sports loyalties from their politics very cleanly. Yes, there are always some voters who have stupid reasons for their voting choices, but sports loyalties go beyond even the most stupid reasons that actually come into play in any high-profile race. And Senate is high-profile, people would make their voting decisions based on a variety of information that would smother sports loyalties.

Celebrity gets you name recognition and doesn't help or hurt you otherwise, except to the extent you've been politically visible and voters have opinions about how you presented your politics in the public arena.

Dean Smith is a known liberal Democrat but not someone who's ever on TV talking politics. He's never hurt his public image with his relatively modest political activism. So Smith would benefit from name recognition but otherwise would have to sell himself as a candidate, to Tar Heel fans and Blue Devil fans alike.

by DCCyclone on Thu Sep 20, 2007 at 01:45:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NC-Sen: Senator Dean Smith? (none / 0)

This is a big bone to pick with Hillary if she wins the nomination. How is she gonna help the party? We know how the party atrophied while Bill was president and we can't let that happen again. It just goes to show, if we can run good people everywhere, we'd kick a lot of Republican ass in '08. If we had the money(meaning the various Dem. organizations), I bet we could hit 60 in the Senate, if not more.

John McCain: Bush right to veto kids health insurance expansion

by Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle on Thu Sep 20, 2007 at 12:14:13 PM EST

Re: NC-Sen: Senator Dean Smith? (none / 0)

Yeah, it was news to me that Dean Smith is a Dem. Even so, he doesn't strike me as the kind of guy who would run for office. However, as the mastermind of the "four-corners offense," he's clearly familiar with the filibuster.

And in the unlikely event that he does, losing the "Duke vote" would hardly matter. I would wager that 70% of Duke graduates are Republicans anyway.

Duke sucks. Run, Dean, run!

by OH Mark on Thu Sep 20, 2007 at 12:17:33 PM EST

My Duke days, there was a saying about Smith... (2.00 / 1)

...that his politics were as liberal as his basketball philosophy was conservative.

It's always been well known locally that Dean Smith was and is a liberal Democrat.

Oh, and no, Duke graduates are not predominantly Republican, not with a 70% or any other majority. A poll of Duke students after the 1990 election showed that a large majority voted for black Democrat Harvey Gantt over racist GOP thug Jesse Helms. I was there that year, so I remember. I don't know much else about student voting behavior or voter registration statistics, but I know the student body when I was there was known to be somewhat liberal compared to the country as a whole, although not compared to many university campuses.

by DCCyclone on Thu Sep 20, 2007 at 01:52:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: My Duke days, there was a saying about Smith.. (none / 0)

Dean Smith's basketball philosophy was certainly not "conservative." While he might have been mild-mannered and his players were always well-dressed and well-groomed and didn't say anything controversial, Dean Smith the coach was one of the leading innovators in basketball strategy.

While he may have emphasized team play and never had a singe dominant scorer, his teams always played with a certain flair.

by KickinIt on Thu Sep 20, 2007 at 03:29:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

pretty conservative in late 80's (none / 0)

I graduated in 1990, and I remember it being very conservative place - Bush Sr beat Dukakis about 50-45 among students, if I remember correctly, this compared to 90-8 for Yale students who voted for Clinton 4 years later when I was there. Reagan and Fallwell both had huge turnouts for speeches while I was there (a small group of us, ummm, disrupted the Fallwell speech), and it was not a good place for my gay friends there. Despite the fact that alot of students were from NY & NJ, the frat dominated social life was lead by some serious old school southern (read: sexist, racist, homophobic) frats.

Of course my loyalties like with Coach K and Duke B-Ball, but if I lived in NC I'd vote for Smith in a second

Vote for a true progressive in November: Cynthia McKinney (GRN) for President!

by brooklyngreenie on Thu Sep 20, 2007 at 05:36:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

As a UNC-CH alum (Ph.D., 1983) (none / 0)

I was there for the glory years of Carolina b-ball - Michael Jordan, Phil Ford, Walter (Sweet-D) Davis, Sam Perkins, etc.

I know that a HUGE number of Carolina fans have nothing but fond and affectionate memories of Coach Smith. He is a nice guy. I cannot remember a single nasty thing he ever said, but he was also a tough and relentless competitor.

He would be a great senator.

by dataguy on Thu Sep 20, 2007 at 12:20:47 PM EST

Re: NC-Sen: Senator Dean Smith? (2.00 / 3)

Fan or not this is not going to happen, he will be close to 80, in 2009 and he has shown next to no interest in running, it is my hope the party begins showing us a serious candidate, or they will be thought of as desperate.

by THE MODERATE on Thu Sep 20, 2007 at 12:24:09 PM EST

Look at Martin;s numbers (none / 0)

there's your serious candidate, if he decides to run

by DrFrankLives on Thu Sep 20, 2007 at 02:06:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NC-Sen: Senator Dean Smith? (2.00 / 2)

I actually think it might be easier to win here than in Oregon and Maine. Dole barely beat Erskine Bowles in '02, a lousy campaigner in a pro-GOP year. I fully expect Grier Martin to beat her if he gets in.

by conspiracy on Thu Sep 20, 2007 at 12:24:21 PM EST

Um (2.00 / 2)

Am I the only one who has noticed that Dean Smith would be 78 when he took office? I'd love Senator Smith but there is NO CHANCE he will run.

Grier Martin however is going to jump in soon I think and as that poll shows when people know about him they like him. If he can raise 10-15 million in cash and run a strong grassroots populist campaign modeled off Jim Webb's campaign. He should be able to win. And he'll make a great US Senator for a long time to come.

"Live your beliefs and you can turn the world around." --Thoreau

by Populista on Thu Sep 20, 2007 at 12:24:24 PM EST

Yes (none / 0)

We are talking about a man who retired from coaching basketball ten years ago. He's almost as old now as Jesse Helms was when he retired.

Of course... he is not that much older than Dole.

by Tom on Thu Sep 20, 2007 at 03:31:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Correction (none / 0)

Jonathan, you said that Dole earns "less than 50 percent support in a named, uninformed head-to-head matchup against a Democratic state Representative". This isn't true, though. It isn't an "uninformed" match-up. The ballot question gives the current position of each candidate. Giving any information, with the exception of party, taints the results, because that's all the voter has to go by when they step into the voting booth. It is also why every other major polling firm operates in this manner. Unforuntately, PPP abjectly refuses to conduct their robo-calls this way, and as a result, no one can really be sure what a true uninformed head-to-head matchup would look like.

However, given PPP's recent public statements criticizing the Dole campaign, it is quite clear that PPP is not an objective resource, and rather is, for one reason or another, invested in the race and interested in seeing Dole defeated. If their questionable methodology wasn't enough, this calls into question all of their results when they poll Elizabeth Dole.

by Unabridged on Thu Sep 20, 2007 at 12:36:30 PM EST

Re: Correction (none / 0)

They also had a poll done without a bio that had her still under 50%. I believe she was sitting at 45%.

by JeremiahTheMessiah on Thu Sep 20, 2007 at 12:40:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Correction (none / 0)

That's the poll I was referring to. Every other polling firm I've heard of says simply:

"If the election were held today, and your choices were John Doe, Republican, and Jane Doe, Democrat, who would you vote for?"

It gives name and party, because that's all you have on the ballot when you vote. That's why its an uninformed ballot test, and the most reliable way of looking at the respective strength of each candidate in a head-to-head matchup.

PPP polling, even in their initial ballot, asks the question differently, along the lines of:

"As you may know, freshman Republican Senator Elizabeth Dole is running for re-election to the U.S. Senate in 2008. In an election pitting her agaisnt two-term Democratic state legislator Grier Martin, who would you vote for?"

No other polling firm does that, and with good reason. Its not an "uninformed" ballot test.

by Unabridged on Thu Sep 20, 2007 at 12:57:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NC-Sen: Senator Dean Smith? (2.00 / 1)

I don't like either UNC or Duke basketball but Dean Smith is a class act. He was an early supporter of civil rights and integration which was not popular in North Carolina in the 1960s and he has advocated for progressive causes for years. I think he would be a great candidate for Senate. If Tom Osbourne could be a member of Congress, why can't Dean Smith be a Senator?

by John Mills on Thu Sep 20, 2007 at 12:36:37 PM EST

Re: NC-Sen: Senator Dean Smith? (none / 0)

That bio in the poll is ridiculously slanted. Go read it. Who wouldn't support him after hearing that? Unfortunately, the other side is going to get a chance to portray his record in their own light in the campaign, too...

NJ Hussein Independent

by NJIndependent on Thu Sep 20, 2007 at 12:36:47 PM EST

Yeah, NJ, it's a partisan poll, and... (none / 0)

...it's worth it to point that out. PPP is a Democratic outfit, so I take their polling with a small grain of salt absent independent polling to corroborate their findings.

The post-bio trial heat questioning definitely is tainted, but that's the standard procedure in partisan polling because the poll's purpose is to generate enthusiasm and fundraising for the pollster's client (or at least same-party if not a client) candidate. Republicans do the exact same thing.

In the big picture, I'm VERY skeptical that Libby is as vulnerable as we want her to be. She has no "fireable offenses" as Chuck Todd would put it, and her awful NRSC stewardship doesn't count because it's not something any voters care about. She's a conservative in a conservative state, and Bob Corker showed in 2006 that such an ideological fit can trump a bad national environment even in an open seat. And Libby is in better shape than Corker was because Libby has the advantages of running as the incumbent. We showed last year we can beat incumbent Rethugs in slightly red-leaning but mostly purple states like Missouri and Ohio without those incumbents having any personal scandals or other fireable offenses, but states like Tennessee and North Carolina are sharply to the right of Missouri and Ohio.

The bottom line is that if we knock off Libby, it will turn out to be our 8th or 9th or even 10th pickup next year in what would be a shockingly good year even by today's expectations.

by DCCyclone on Thu Sep 20, 2007 at 02:04:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

All it takes is one mistake... (none / 0)

Ask Senator George Allen.

by DrFrankLives on Thu Sep 20, 2007 at 02:07:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: All it takes is one mistake... (none / 0)

Wrong Comparison-

Dole is unlikely to have a MACACA Moment. BUT She will be in a similar situation as Lauch Faircloth. Lazy Campaigning. Democrats will recruit an energetic campaigner like another John Edwards..

by nkpolitics on Thu Sep 20, 2007 at 02:14:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yeah, NJ, it's a partisan poll, and... (none / 0)

Well, I don't know enough about the race to say whether Dole is really vulnerable or not (the impression I get from afar is that you are right that she would be in the #8 - #10 most vulnerable seats, but that is just from afar). The pre-bio poll was at least encouraging for someone with no (or very limited) name recognition. However, all it takes is a quick read of the bio in the next question to acsertain that the post-bio results don't amount to a hill of beans.

NJ Hussein Independent

by NJIndependent on Thu Sep 20, 2007 at 02:54:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yeah, NJ, it's a partisan poll, and... (none / 0)

"We showed last year we can beat incumbent Rethugs in slightly red-leaning but mostly purple states like Missouri and Ohio without those incumbents having any personal scandals or other fireable offenses, but states like Tennessee and North Carolina are sharply to the right of Missouri and Ohio."

North Carolina has a Democratic Governor, both state houses are held by Dems despite a huge scandal with the former Dem Speaker of the House, and more than half the NC HOR delegation is Democratic.

I'm not sure how far to the right of Ohio that makes us, but it sure seems to imply that Dems have a chance here.

by alteran on Thu Sep 20, 2007 at 03:30:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I'm aware of N.C. state politics, but... (none / 0)

...that doesn't translate into higher-level federal races.

The higher you go on the ballot, and also move from state to federal races, the more ideological voting behavior becomes. Enough conservatives will vote for a somewhat liberal Democrat for state legislature, for down-ballot statewide offices, and occasionally even for Congress although that's tougher. Even the Democratic U.S. House delegation is tempered by the fact that some of the Dems are self-styled moderates or even conservatives, a necessity given their conservative districts. Shuler, for his part, is an outright evangelical conservative Christian, a rarity among Democratic politicians. And guys like McIntyre and Etheridge are no liberals, not even close.

Obviously for President voting is very ideological, to the point that no Democrat can win the state. And a U.S. Senate race usually draws the second-most ideologically motivated voting behavior, as the only other kind of statewide federal race.

by DCCyclone on Thu Sep 20, 2007 at 03:49:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Grier Martin for Senate? (2.00 / 1)

Dean Smith probably isn't going to run for Senate.

But Grier Martin is actively considering it, and he may be Democrats' best chance to unseat the vulnerable Dole.

To learn more about Martin's background, check out this profile.

Check out the Guru's blog at http://www.senateguru.com/

by Senate Guru on Thu Sep 20, 2007 at 12:50:38 PM EST

Well, almost (none / 0)

He may be the best chance after the half-dozen or so people who have already taken their names out of consideration.

by Unabridged on Thu Sep 20, 2007 at 12:58:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Every party has a pooper (none / 0)

but I don't remember inviting you.

by DrFrankLives on Thu Sep 20, 2007 at 02:08:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NC-Sen: Senator Dean Smith? (none / 0)

Dean Smith has polled well for a long time, and is a progressive.

But his personality isn't well suited for a campaign; he's not a shake-10,000 hands-a-day guy.

Hard to see that changing.

by SteveUFT on Thu Sep 20, 2007 at 12:57:31 PM EST

Re: NC-Sen: Senator Dean Smith? (none / 0)

Because he has good name recognition.

He would not be a strong opponent against Elizabeth Dole.

Like I said upthread, the type of Democrat the NC Democrats need to run is one like David Kirby.

Telegenic, masculine, and quick on his feet.

He has flirted with the idea of running before, but he says he's dedicated to helping John Edwards get elected. Whether Edwards wins the nomination or not, I'm hoping that he eventually tries to convince Kirby to run, because he would destroy Elizabeth Dole.

I like the Democrats chances in North Carolina in 2008, if their choices are:

President -- John Edwards

NC - US Senate David Kirby

Governor -- Richard Moore
(I love Beverly Perdue and I'm going to work like crazy for her if she wins the nomination, but I don't think she will be nominated, in the end, plus Moore has an absolutely HOT wife. Look at the video where they say "along the way he met and married Noel.")

by OE on Thu Sep 20, 2007 at 06:19:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NC-Sen: Senator Dean Smith? (none / 0)

If Edwards doesn't make it in Iowa/New Hampshire, I hope he shifts his remaining resources to a run for Senate against Liddy Dole. I'd love to see him return to Washington in any capacity.

The sharpest criticism often goes hand in hand with the deepest idealism and love of country. ~RFK

by Vox Populi on Thu Sep 20, 2007 at 01:25:52 PM EST

He will not run (2.00 / 1)

He's a wonderful human being and a good liberal. But I saw him at a play during this year's Final Four, and he looks very old.

If I lived in NC, I'd vote for him in a heartbeat, and I'm a Duke fan. Wht you have to remember is that Duke is generally considered the preppy, Republican school and Carolina is the public, Democratic school.

I don't see it. He has earned a nice retirement. Let him have it.

by Atlantajan on Thu Sep 20, 2007 at 01:42:30 PM EST

Re: NC-Sen: Senator Dean Smith? (none / 0)

I'm hoping that David Kirby changes his mind and enters the race. Kirby is John Edwards former law partner.

Kirby would crush Elizabeth Dole.

by OE on Thu Sep 20, 2007 at 05:28:15 PM EST

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