The race but a few days old, but now there are already a couple of head-to-head polls that have been released publicly:
ARG Rasmussen
ReportsSununu 41 43 Shaheen 46 48
ARG: 558 RVs, September 14-17, MoE +/- 4.2%
Rasmussen Reports: 800 LVs, September 16, MoE +/- 4.5%
Earlier this summer polling suggested that Shaheen, who was not yet in the race at the time, would lead by a significantly larger margin in a potential race against Sununu. So Sununu is looking relatively good, then, right? Not so much. Take a look at this report from the Associated Press.
"Jeanne Shaheen was governor for six years and completely failed to deal with education funding, the state's highest priority," Sununu told The Associated Press after a groundbreaking ceremony. "When it comes to government not working, she obviously knows what she's talking about because that was a failure of leadership."
In general, incumbents don't go negative unless they have to -- and they certainly don't go negative this early unless they believe they have no other choice but to do so in order to even have a shot at winning reelection. In fact, just about the only incumbent I can remember having gone negative this early was Rick Santorum, and that's not a comparison Sununu would like to see be made.
Sununu is weak -- and he knows it. While this race isn't a gimme for the Democrats, it is by far the party's best pickup opportunity outside of open-seat races. And unless the National Republican Senatorial Committee is willing to sink a significant chunk of its money in New Hampshire this cycle -- and the Granite State is actually a relatively expensive state to advertise in given the need to be on air in the Boston market -- it's going to be mighty difficult for the GOP to hold on to this seat. And if the NRSC does go big into New Hampshire, I'm not sure where it's going to find the money to play in the host of other races that will determine control over the Senate this cycle.
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