The 800 Pound Gorilla: Hillary Clinton

Disclaimer: Week 6 of the partisan candidate diaries. I am not associated with any of the campaigns, just a long-time observer of Democratic presidential politics and the father of a college daughter.

The 800 pound gorilla in the room:
Hillary Clinton

Others have covered the big news of the day, Hillary Clinton's American Health Choices Plan, so I thought I would spend a minute or two reflecting on a noticeable trend that emerged on the campaign trail this week. Hillary Clinton is dominating attention of the other candidates and setting the agenda for the election narrative.

It started with the Petraeus hearings. With all of the candidates making appearances in the Senate Hearings and/or TV talking head shows, it was Clinton's remarks that prompted specific responses from Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney, and Fred Thompson.

It became even more apparent this weekend with the anticipated roll-out of the Clinton's health care proposal. Every candidate has rolled out a plan and/or addressed health care over the last six months, but the entire punditry class was waiting for the big kahuna: Hillary Clinton's plan.

All of the major newspapers ran preview articles on Sunday and Monday.

Mitt Romney was first out of the gates with a press conference attacking her plan, even before it was released.

Guiliani released a press statement dubbing Clinton's plan "HillaryCare 2.0" and advising voters that, if they liked the Michael Moore movie Sicko, they'll love Clinton's plan.

"If you liked Michael Moore's `Sicko,' you're going to love HillaryCare 2.0. Senator Clinton's latest health scheme includes more government mandates, expensive federal subsidies and more big bureaucracy - in short, a prescription for an increase in wait times, a decrease in patient care and tax hikes to pay for it all."

The Democratic challengers Obama and Edwards both released statements about  Clinton's plan and spent the day attacking her, even to the extreme of suggesting that it is Hillary Clinton's fault we don't have universal coverage today.

Virtually all media outlets have featured extensive coverage of the Clinton plan.

Last week, I suggested that Bill Clinton was the 800 pound gorilla in the race, but I've changed my mind. It's clearly Hillary Clinton. Her "share of voice" commanding attention from the candidates and by the media is just astonishing this early in the election cycle. It's almost like she is an incumbent President with all of the other campaigns revolving around her agenda.

Presidential elections are about identifying the candidate with the stature to command the attention of the country (and the world) in setting the agenda for the next four years. If this week is any indication, it appears that Hillary Clinton is already doing just that. She is the 800 pound gorilla in the race.



Display:


The 800 Pound Gorilla is an 80 Pound Weakling (2.00 / 1)

in red states.

Do you really think she's going to be competitive in the South, Southwest, Rocky Mountain and Western states?

When is the last time a Northern liberal won the White House?  Didn't we learn anything from Kerry's loss?


Bill Richardson: "Get out now. Get all our troops out now. It is the only right and responsible choice."
by Stephen Cassidy on Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 12:32:42 AM EST

Re: The 800 Pound Gorilla is an 80 Pound Weakling (2.00 / 1)

I don't think Hillary is considered a Northern liberal by everyone.  She wouldn't poll so well in Arkansas if that were the case.

Hillary is a born and bred Midwesterner, and from watching how she handles herself in Iowa, it's clear that she hasn't outgrown her roots.

As long as Hillary isn't afraid to campaign in the red states in the general election, and lets people see close up that she's not the caricature they've all heard about, I think she'll be fine.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 12:48:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 800 Pound Gorilla is an 80 Pound Weakling (2.00 / 1)

She gave another big speech in South Carolina this past week -- to the NAACP convention in Charleston.

There are states where any Democrat would be wasting time in the general election. However, I am frankly shocked at Clinton's poll strength in border states like Virginia and Kentucky. I never dreamed those states would be in play for Clinton. They may be.


by hwc on Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 12:55:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 800 Pound Gorilla is an 80 Pound Weakling (2.00 / 1)

Virginia's changing demographics are well documented.  We can see from the fact that Democrats keep winning elections there that something is happening.

Kentucky is something of a special case because of the massive GOP scandal in recent years that has really damaged their brand.  A Democrat is about to unseat the sitting governor by double digits.  It's still not classic Hillary country, to say the least.  

Any presidential candidate is going to concentrate their efforts in the states they have the best chance to win.  I don't have a problem with that.  But you have to make some kind of effort in the red states, you have to ask people for their vote, you have to do your best to advance the Democratic Party as a legitimate alternative and show that you're not afraid of Republican efforts at demonization.  At a minimum, symbolic efforts along these lines are very important because we can't afford another Kerry-style campaign where half the country has a laugh at our expense.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 01:07:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 800 Pound Gorilla is an 80 Pound Weakling (2.00 / 1)

In my opinion, John Kerry was the worst nominee and ran the worst campaign since Michael Dukakis. I live in Massachusetts. He's my Senator. I had never seen him on the local news in all the years he's served. Truly horrible politician.

There is no comparison between between Kerry and Clinton. Two opposite ends of the spectrum.


by hwc on Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 01:17:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 800 Pound Gorilla is an 80 Pound Weakling (2.00 / 1)

No one can accuse Hillary of running a bad campaign. I think that is what has everyone so up in arms so early. Her campaign is disciplined, on message and moving forward at a steady pace. Really quite remarkable to witness.


by DoIT on Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 07:55:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 800 Pound Gorilla is an 80 Pound Weakling (2.00 / 2)

After the mess the Republicans made of running the 3 branches of Government.  People are looking for a mom to make them better.  I never thought a woman could be President till I saw Hillary.  She doesn't try to outman the men she just shows what a woman can do when she is given the chance.  

When you look at the issues that Hillary has taken on like healthcare and growing the economy along with bringing the rest of the nations in the Middle East together so that they can play a part in Iraq's future.  She seems to have an innate understanding and interest in everything.  

The powers that be will not make it easy for the next president.  Bush will leave this economy in shambles, our deficit will be at a record level, there will be two wars to sort out.  It seems a daunting task but Hillary welcomes the challenge.

Fred Thompson is already tiring of having to learn all about Foreign Policy and is taking a week off.  Hill is out there everyday competent and caring and turning more people on every time she speaks.  


by changehorses08 on Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 02:36:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 800 Pound Gorilla is an 80 Pound Weakling (2.00 / 1)

I think Clinton will be strong in all of the Kerry states.

She is leading in the head to head matchup polls in the following "red" states:

Ohio
Florida
W. Virginia
Virginia
Kentucky
Iowa
N. Mexico
Arkansas

I think Nevada and Colorado will also be in play, primarily because Clinton is so strong with Latino/a voters.

Clinton is not John Kerry. Kerry underperformed horribly with female voters, carrying the overall women's vote by a dismal 3%. His lack of appeal to women compared to Gore is why he got clobbered and Gore won the popular vote. Hillary Clinton will be the strongest candidate in history with female voters, especially unmarried female voters who make up roughly a quarter of the electorate.


by hwc on Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 12:52:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 800 Pound Gorilla is an 80 Pound Weakling (none / 0)

"Clinton is not John Kerry."

I agree but I also place no stock whatsoever in the match up polls we currently see.  They are just as meaningless as the polls showing HRC with a huge lead for the Dem. nomination.  Her lead is due primarily to her national name recognition.  It's that simple.  


Bill Richardson: "Get out now. Get all our troops out now. It is the only right and responsible choice."
by Stephen Cassidy on Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 12:56:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 800 Pound Gorilla is an 80 Pound Weakling (2.00 / 1)

I think it is nonsense to consider the entirety of polling data we have "meaningless."  Given what we have seen, I believe they accurately show the state of the race.  It would take a major event to shake the race up at this point, and that event is hard to imagine (no, a loss in IA is not nearly enough.)


by georgep on Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 12:59:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 800 Pound Gorilla is an 80 Pound Weakling (none / 0)

Go back and look at 2003.  At this point everyone was ready to crown Howard Dean the nominee.  HRC's support in nationwide match up polls is a mile wide and an inch deep.  


Bill Richardson: "Get out now. Get all our troops out now. It is the only right and responsible choice."
by Stephen Cassidy on Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 01:01:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 800 Pound Gorilla is an 80 Pound Weakling (2.00 / 1)

I wasn't. I knew Dean had no prayer. I knew that he would never cross the "commander-in-chief threshold" that Clinton has already crossed.

The netroot may have thought Dean had a chance, but I don't think anyone with any perspective did.


by hwc on Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 01:19:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 800 Pound Gorilla is an 80 Pound Weakling (none / 0)

It wasn't just the netroots.  Dean was leading in national polls.  Kerry was dead - that was the conventional wisdom in the Fall of 2003.


Bill Richardson: "Get out now. Get all our troops out now. It is the only right and responsible choice."
by Stephen Cassidy on Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 01:27:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 800 Pound Gorilla is an 80 Pound Weakling (2.00 / 1)

Edwards Obama and Clinton all have pretty universal name recognition unless you live under a rock.


vote blue in 2008
by sepulvedaj3 on Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 09:52:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 800 Pound Gorilla is an 80 Pound Weakling (2.00 / 2)

You can't really compare 2003 and today.  Our 2003 was much more like the GOP today is.  4, 5 ho-hum candidates trading small leads.  Sometimes Giuliani looks strong, sometimes Thompson comes out ahead, yet Romney leads early states.  Very similar.   Remember that whenever Clinton was included in any poll in 2003 or 2004 she would typically blast all democratic candidates away 4 to 1 (as did Gore.)

No comparison, IMHO.


by georgep on Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 01:36:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 800 Pound Gorilla is an 80 Pound Weakling (none / 0)

I think Hillary would lock up the upper Midwest which was a tough battleground in 2004, particularly if Giuliani is the Republican nominee.  That general election matchup would be a laugher in places like Iowa and Wisconsin.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 01:10:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I hope you are right (2.00 / 1)

because I'm overcommitted with volunteer oblivations and would love to be able to spend less time on GOTV during the fall of 2008.

However, I suspect Iowa will be a nail-biter again if Hillary is the nominee.


Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.
by desmoinesdem on Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 01:20:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I hope you are right (2.00 / 1)

Well, the Republicans have better national candidates they can nominate than Giuliani.  The guy is about as out of place in the Midwest as John Kerry was in the South.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 01:31:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 800 Pound Gorilla (none / 0)

HRC is dominating the media because she is the establishment candidate. Could have told you a year ago she would be "it" because the forces that be (media and Dem Party) had already decided it. Her health care plan is a mandate everybody buy health insurance. Big whoop! I think Romney already did that in MA. HRC as the Dem candidate is a huge disappointment to real reform of everything that is wrong in DC. Clintons, another dynasty dedicated to the needs of corporate America will be in play for at least another 4 damned years. After her comes the Bush twins, then it is Chelsey's turn. This Party will elect HRC without me.
by dkmich on Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 06:02:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 800 Pound Gorilla (none / 0)

naderite


vote blue in 2008
by sepulvedaj3 on Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 09:54:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 800 Pound Gorilla: Hillary Clinton (none / 0)

I thought you were a supporter.  I don't think calling her an 800 pound gorilla is a compliment.


The sharpest criticism often goes hand in hand with the deepest idealism and love of country. ~RFK
by Vox Populi on Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 12:38:04 AM EST

Re: The 800 Pound Gorilla: Hillary Clinton (2.00 / 1)

She'll be on 'Good Morning America' tomorrow morning, perhaps more TV interviews this week.

Tomorrow night, live webcast discussion. The timing is all carefully planned by her campaign.


Hillary: We will finally have a president who doesn't mind pulling over and asking for directions. Am I right, ladies?
by areyouready on Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 12:38:41 AM EST

Re: The 800 Pound Gorilla: Hillary Clinton (none / 0)

LOL.  That's sad.  


by JeremiahTheMessiah on Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 01:10:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 800 Pound Gorilla: Hillary Clinton (2.00 / 1)

what exactly is sad? The fact that she has one of the best campaigns put together?


vote blue in 2008
by sepulvedaj3 on Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 09:55:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 800 Pound Gorilla: Hillary Clinton (none / 0)

areyouready really expects the livewebcast to be a discussion.  There's no way you could have half a million or whatever the number may be, people watching and actually have the watching group voice their opinion right back to her and get feedback in a controlled manner.  You know, like a discussion.  He can post lies all he wants, he should just try to hide them better.  


by JeremiahTheMessiah on Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 11:51:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 800 Pound Gorilla: Hillary Clinton (none / 0)

How about you tune in and watch it for yourself. Then we might take your opinion seriously. Right now all you are doing is speculating.


by DoIT on Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 02:31:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 800 Pound Gorilla: Hillary Clinton (2.00 / 1)

Great post.  You're spot on.  I was thinking earlier, did she plan to draw her competitors in on UHC?  You know, there they were with their plans, claiming she was on the take, a failure, wasn't going to do anything.  And, she's the policy expert.  Hell, their plans heavily draw on her's from '94 and indeed more recent initiative, like her SCHIP expansion.  And, now she pounces.  She delivers what Democrats want, a public option(could lead to single payer if required and acceptable to most americans), and she delivers what the majority of americans favor, subsidies with individual mandates, all n a politically feasible package, that allows people to choose.  Now the other candidates are stuck having to debate the expert on health policy the rest of the primary.  very clever.


by bookgrl on Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 12:39:21 AM EST

just yesterday (2.00 / 1)

you were telling me that some of these same elements, which are in the Edwards health care proposal, could never be adopted by Congress.

The public option is the most important part to me. I am pretty sure it did not exist in Clinton's 1993/1994 health care proposal. I don't care who originated the idea, but Edwards proposed it earlier this year, and now Hillary is too. That is a good thing for Democrats and for all Americans.

I am glad that Hillary is on record supporting this idea. I personally do not believe that she would have gone that far if she weren't trying to beat Edwards in Iowa.


Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.
by desmoinesdem on Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 12:45:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 800 Pound Gorilla: Hillary Clinton (2.00 / 2)

bookgirl:

I don't think it was a matter of drawing her competitors in. Instead, I think it was more a question of laying out a series of high-visibility announcements over a nine-month primary campaign. Announcing her health care plan was always going to generate huge media coverage and interest. After all, no politician is as closely associated with the issue as Hillary Clinton.

It just didn't make sense to waste this announcement before the fall, when people are really starting to focus.


by hwc on Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 12:47:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I think any Democratic nominee (none / 0)

would have the stature to lead the country. We have a very strong field this year.

And clearly she is trying to run as the incumbent, taking credit for the things people liked about Bill's presidency and the 1990s. You can hear it in her stump speech--in the 1990s "we" balanced the budget and "we" created 22 million jobs. That is the obvious strategy for her.


Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.
by desmoinesdem on Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 12:48:05 AM EST

Re: I think any Democratic nominee (none / 0)

I agree completely.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 12:51:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I think any Democratic nominee (none / 0)

The issue with this is that she needs to accept the failures as well.  "They" introduced 'Don't Ask Don't Tell.' "They" signed the Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA).  "They" fought to pass NAFTA (which cost Democrats Congress and killed millions of manufacturing jobs).  "They" got impeached because of perjury.


The sharpest criticism often goes hand in hand with the deepest idealism and love of country. ~RFK
by Vox Populi on Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 12:54:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

OT but for accuracy (none / 0)

Yes they Bill was impeached for and acquitted of perjury


"Once in a while you get shown the light In the strangest of places if you look at it right"
by molly bloom on Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 09:14:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: OT but for accuracy (none / 0)

He was impeached nonetheless and was allowed to remain in office.


The sharpest criticism often goes hand in hand with the deepest idealism and love of country. ~RFK
by Vox Populi on Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 02:38:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I think any Democratic nominee (none / 0)

When is Obama, Edwards or Richardson going to call her on the "we" HRC uses?

If Nancy Reagan ran for President would Dems. credit the eight years she was FLOTUS as governmental service?

Why are Dems willing to hold FLOTUS HRC to a different standard?


Bill Richardson: "Get out now. Get all our troops out now. It is the only right and responsible choice."
by Stephen Cassidy on Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 12:58:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I think any Democratic nominee (2.00 / 1)

I guess it's for the voters to decide whether they think Hillary is different from Nancy Reagan.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 01:14:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

good question (none / 0)

I think Richardson, even more than the others you named, needs to call Hillary on this. He is running as the experienced candidate, and so is she. He is finding support among older voters looking for a lot of Washington experience, and so is she.

If he can convince Iowans that Hillary really wasn't responsible for all the things they liked about the 1990s, I think he has a lot of room to grow his support.


Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.
by desmoinesdem on Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 01:22:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: good question (2.00 / 1)

He is running as the experienced candidate, and so is she.

Assuming Richardson can get his head into the race and stop making bush league mistakes. The guy has the experience and brain to be the President, but he's got a campaign that wouldn't even win him Mayor of Topeka.


by dexf on Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 12:12:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I think any Democratic nominee (2.00 / 2)

She is actually referring to the Democratic party under the leadership of Bill Clinton. Bill did not pass legislation, Congress does that. And it did under his leadership.


by DoIT on Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 09:36:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I think any Democratic nominee (none / 0)

Yeah, I thought that was obvious.  She's not talking about her and Bill- I mean, that's so ridiculous it's funny.


by reasonwarrior on Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 11:12:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I think any Democratic nominee (2.00 / 2)

She is actually running on "balancing the budget."  Those of us who value a balanced budget really have no choice, as neither Edwards nor Obama are running on it.  


by georgep on Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 09:43:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I think any Democratic nominee (none / 0)

I think that both Edwards and Obama not only don't support a balanced budget, they have stated that they would run up more deficits to pay for programs. It is just a stupid way to govern. It's like they accept the Bush philosophy that deficits aren't so bad.


by DoIT on Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 02:34:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 800 Pound Gorilla: Hillary Clinton (none / 0)

Agreed on a good post.

I think more than Hillary drawing her competitors (bookgrl is right on that count), what is most concerning to me is that I think Gulliani, Romney and Thompson were all trying to call out their opponent of choice.

I think Republicans are aware of what Stephen Cassidy noted earlier.  They know they are about to loose the entire Western half of the US and their best bet is to choose someone like Hillary, who just won't draw a big crowd in the places like Arizona, Colorado, Montana, and New Mexico (all of which could go blue in 08).

The idea is to call out the one you think you could beat on the other side of the isle and focus the election around your opposition to them.  They don't mention Edwards or Obama nearly as often because those two candidates are really much, much more "electable" in the general elections.  They appear much less establishment, and much more the ever popular "candidate of change."  There's just no way Hillary can do that, even if she is the first real female contender for PUSA.

Hillary may be the center of focus and most powerful player in the game, but she's also got some major vulnerabilites.  The main one is that she does not appeal to libertarian minded Dems and  independents, which make up large portions of registered voters out West.  She may be a Gorilla, but she's no cowgirl.

(PS - I maintain that "electability" is a bad word in the primaries.  Who ever gets the Dem nomination is going to be the president, hands down.)


We are the change we've been waiting for.
by jlars on Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 01:00:59 AM EST

Re: The 800 Pound Gorilla: Hillary Clinton (2.00 / 1)

Sometimes the idea is to call out the frontrunner in the other party to try and demonstrate confidence.  Sometimes the idea is simply to score cheap applause by campaigning against the other side's lightning rod.

If you're a hardcore Republican voter, your #1 concern in the primary might be finding the candidate who can beat Hillary and save the world from liberal doom.  So the Republican candidates feel they have to demonstrate they can beat Hillary, or at least that they're not afraid to take her on.  They don't talk about her as part of some devious plan to get her the Democratic nomination.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 01:18:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

So what? (none / 0)

She is the largest candidate, the '800 pound gorilla' has its disadvantages -- she gets all the attacks and if their is a kink in her armor its going to come out.

To me, the 800lb Gorilla is a figure of discussion, not one you want to be your 1st choice.


by MrMacMan on Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 01:05:43 AM EST

Re: The 800 Pound Gorilla: Hillary Clinton (none / 0)

Hillary Clinton being Hillary Clinton is going to get a lot more attention from the MSM than the other candidates but unfortunately that media is often very cynical and may not always be helpful.  Though it is interesting that the republicans have all turned into reactionaries to whatever she says.  I thought that wasn't very good politics.


by Justify My Vote on Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 01:21:22 AM EST

Re: The 800 Pound Gorilla: Hillary Clinton (2.00 / 1)

The media has given George Bush a six year honeymoon.  That will not be true for Hillary.  She will be attacked for everything she says and does.  They want this to be a one term presidency and will do everything and anything to make that happen.  I have never been a Republican but even I cannot understand what has happened to the Republican Party.  They are embarrassing and incompetent.  They passed bills in the middle of the night with just one vote and are proud.  They support wars that most Americans have turned their backs on and do whatever they can to hurt the middle class, cutting school loans, making it harder to declare bankruptcy and sending good jobs out of the country etc.

All the Republicans have left is their hatred and in the end that is what will bring them down.  They hate hispanics, women, gays, blacks, the middle class, the poor.  Who is left to vote for them except the people who love death and destruction.  For those of us who want to feel good again.  We will vote for Hillary -- she's our girl.


by changehorses08 on Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 02:54:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 800 Pound Gorilla: Hillary Clinton (none / 0)

I would have called it a tsunami of moderate mediocrity, just the ticket for a country having a hang-over after a big night out in Iraq.


by Shaun Appleby on Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 04:27:09 AM EST

Re: The 800 Pound Gorilla: Hillary Clinton (none / 0)

"It's almost like she is an incumbent President with all of the other campaigns revolving around her agenda."

This is a change election.  Incumbency will not be an advantage in '08.

Having been a Republican, I can tell you that the power of their Hillary Clinton caricature cannot be underestimated.  Right now, the other side is dispirited and unmotivated by their field of candidates.  Sen. Clinton at the head of our ticket solves their problem for them.  It is not fair, and it certainly is not based on anything we would consider facts.  Unfortunately, political realities tend to be unfair and steeped in irrationality.  Denying this does nothing for the progressive movement.  

If New York state was the country in microcosm, there would be no problem.  The view is different from Georgia, sad to say, and with the Peach State's incresingly regressive posture (on a wide variety of issues, some of which I've already mentioned in other diaries), it is imperative that we keep the Republicans dispirited and unmotivated if we are to have any chance down here.      


The bad news is that my Representative and two Senators are in the minority. The good news is that my Representative and two Senators are in the minority.
by CLLGADEM on Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 05:58:56 AM EST

Re: The 800 Pound Gorilla: Hillary Clinton (2.00 / 3)

My hunch is that Clinton will bring out a bunch of new voters (i.e. women who never voted before, Republican women who see a historic moment, Hispanics who were Bill Clinton voters but left the Democratic party for the GOP for the last 2 general elections. etc.)   I really don't see this groundswell of "bad" for Clinton.  Wouldn't they already be out en masse now?  Before they have a chance to see her in GE candidate debates, scratch their heads and go "Wait a minute here now, I thought she was supposed to be this cold beotch, not this joke machine that has me in stitches?"   Thompson, the new Republican standard bearer, who has vaulted to the top of the GOP polls, gets 400 people to come to his long-awaited announcement.   There should be more of a visible "Hillary sucks" GOP presence at rallies (or at Hillary Clinton events) if what you claim here was truly the correct state of affairs in our country.  


by georgep on Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 08:03:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 800 Pound Gorilla: Hillary Clinton (2.00 / 1)

I also think that the country in general knows that this attack nonsense is an overplayed hand and they won't have any of it. And I am including moderate and left leaning republicans in that crowd. Many regret that they elected Bush and more than anything want to get us the hell out of Iraq. And they know that the republicans vying for the nomination except Paul are fully behind Bush and his war. I personally know a few republicans that are fed up with Bush and his war. And while they may not like Hillary because of the bugaboo created by Huffington and Limbaugh in the 90s they aren't convinced any longer that the monster in the closet is real.


by DoIT on Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 09:43:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 800 Pound Gorilla: Hillary Clinton (2.00 / 1)

You're right.  Truthfully, Hillary is already running as the democratic nominee- Rudy is certainly acting like it- it's already in full-swing and she's handling herself very well.  And at least when she is officially annointed, the attacks from Edwards, Obama and other democratics will drop off and she won't have to deal with them and the republicans at the same time, like she is doing now.


by reasonwarrior on Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 11:21:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 800 Pound Gorilla: Hillary Clinton (none / 0)

The view is different from Georgia, sad to say, and with the Peach State's incresingly regressive posture (on a wide variety of issues, some of which I've already mentioned in other diaries), it is imperative that we keep the Republicans dispirited and unmotivated if we are to have any chance down here.

Here's reality. No Democrat is going to carry Georgia in the 2008 election. Other than Mississippi, Alabama, and South Carolina, Georgia is the most hard-core Republican state in the south. It's the Republican base. In Georgia, Max Cleland isn't "strong enough on defense" to get re-elected. That's just the reality of the situation.

Having said that, Matt Lowrey of the Southern Political Report has said that he is seeing surprising strength in Georgia for Hillary Clinton in his Insider Advantage polling. Like elsewhere, this strength is being driven by very high numbers from women voters.

Georgia is too red-state to actually flip in the general election, but this same dynamic accounts for shocking polls showing Clinton leading all Republican contenders in states like Virginia and Kentucky. With Clinton, there is a gender dynamic in the race that exists outside of the same old left/right definitions. The base of the Democratic vote has been female voters for quite some time. Clinton will energize this Democratic base like we have never seen.


by hwc on Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 02:14:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 800 Pound Gorilla: Hillary Clinton (none / 0)

I think that Kentucky has a very good chance to turn blue this time around. One thing I remember about the 90s was how much they loved Bill Clinton for the jobs he brought to the rural communities. Several people at the time said so to me.


by DoIT on Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 02:38:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 800 Pound Gorilla: Hillary Clinton (none / 0)

Southern States Hillary will or might win is

Arkansas- anHome State of Clinton and Wesley Clark.
Florida- Black,Hispanic d Jewish Constituency.
Kentucky-  
North Carolina
Tennessee
Virginia-
West Virginia-


by nkpolitics on Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 02:52:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 800 Pound Gorilla: Hillary Clinton (none / 0)

georgep, let me see that groundswell of new women voters in the primary, and then I will be convinced.  Right now, I have my doubts that women vote with that much of a pack mentality, or that single mothers who feel they don't have time to vote will suddenly make that time for Senator Clinton.  After all, did women flock to Mondale/Ferraro in '84 (not the best comparison, I know)?  

hwc, I understand that Georgia will remain in the Republican column in the GE.  It is also true that our Democratic nominee does not need Georgia's 15 electoral votes to win the White House.  What I was referring to was the effect Clinton would have on down-ticket races, and my calculation is that it would be a net negative effect in Georgia and rural states in general.  

A convincing argument has been made that Hillary Clinton can go all the way.  I beleive that, based on her improving poll numbers.  No one has convinced me, however, that she can help sweep another 9 Democrats in to the Senate (imperative to avoid a standing filibuster like in '93-'94), increase the margin in the House, or do much for state legislative races.  

No one has convinced Georgia leaders like former Gov. Roy Barnes or state House Minority Leader DuBose Porter either.  Maybe that's why they endorsed John Edwards.


The bad news is that my Representative and two Senators are in the minority. The good news is that my Representative and two Senators are in the minority.
by CLLGADEM on Wed Sep 19, 2007 at 06:11:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 800 Pound Gorilla: Hillary Clinton (none / 0)

No one has convinced Georgia leaders like former Gov. Roy Barnes or state House Minority Leader DuBose Porter either.  Maybe that's why they endorsed John Edwards.

Or, it could be that it's because Edwards is the only white male candidate.

BTW, the Southern Political Report out of Atlanta (Insider Advantage polling) has Hillary comfortably leading the Democratic primary in Georgia, although they do suggest that SC and GA probably represent Obama's best to chances of winning a state if the black vote breaks his way at the end.

As for Senate gains, Richard Russell couldn't beat the Republican in Georgia today. (Actually, Richard Russell would BE a Republican today).


by hwc on Sat Sep 22, 2007 at 12:45:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 800 Pound Gorilla: Hillary Clinton (2.00 / 1)

HIllary Clinton's opponent isn't Obama, Edwards or Richardson.  It's arithmetic.   Her support is highly concentrated on the coasts and a few other locations.   Getting 70% in New York or New England doesn't get you any more Electoral College votes.   Against this is positioned the hard fact that upwards of 49% of the American people say they will not vote for her under any circumstances.  After 17 years HRC is a well known entity and these people mean it.   Put these two hard facts together and do some basic grade school arithmetic.   I have never seen a remotely plausible mathematical model where she can win.   That so many people take her candidacy seriously fills me with despair.  Can't anybody in our Party count anymore?


by tea in the harbor on Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 09:59:13 AM EST

Re: The 800 Pound Gorilla: Hillary Clinton (2.00 / 1)

Nonsense.

If you want to play electoral math, name me one state that Kerry won that you think Clinton will lose, and back up your theory.

Otherwise, all Hillary has to do is flip a major state, like say the GOP scandal crippled state of Ohio, and she becomes President. The Ohio GOP is bleeding to death right now, the polling is dreadful across the board for the party, and the Democrats have a decent system that is growing rapidly across the state. It's been trending blue for years, and the GOP has accelerated that process with both corruption and some particularly poor recruiting choices. It will be in play for any Democrat candidate, including HRC. She picks it up, and doesn't lose any states Kerry won(and polling indicates that no Blue state from 2004 is looking or trending away to the GOP right now) and you have the election.


by dexf on Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 12:20:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 800 Pound Gorilla: Hillary Clinton (2.00 / 1)

Looking at the transition from 1996-2000.
None of the Dole States went to Gore. In fact Bush increased its margin in the Dole States.

AL- 1996 Dole won by 50-43
    2000 Bush won by 57-42
AK- 1996 Dole won  by 51-33
    2000 Bush won by 59-28
CO  1996 Dole won by 46-44
    2000 Bush won by 51-42
GA  1996 Dole won by 47-46
    2000 Bush won by 55-43
ID  1996 Dole won by 53-34
    2000 Bush won by 67-28
IN  1996 Dole won by 47-42
    2000 Bush won by 57-41
KS  1996 Dole won by 54-36
    2000 Bush won by 58-37
MS  1996 Dole won by 49-44
    2000 Bush won by 58-41
MT  1996 Dole won by 44-41
    2000 Bush won by 58-33
NE  1996 Dole won by 54-35
    2000 Bush won by 62-33
NC  1996 Dole won by 49-44
    2000 Bush won by 56-43
ND  1996 Dole won by 47-40
    2000 Bush won by 61-33
OK  1996 Dole won by 48-41
    2000 Bush won by 60-38
SC  1996 Dole won by 50-44
    2000 Bush won by 57-41
SD  1996 Dole won by 46-43
    2000 Bush won by 60-38
TX  1996 Dole won by 49-44
    2000 Bush won by 59-38
UT  1996 Dole won by 54-33
    2000 Bush won by 67-26
VA  1996 Dole won by 47-45
    2000 Bush won by 53-44
WY  1996 Dole won by 50-37
    2000 Bush won by 68-28

All of the Kerry States will go the Hillary Clinton(D) 252 EV.

In 2000- Bush carried AZ and allegedly FL both states that went for his Father in 1992 but Clinton in 1996.

Expect in 2008 Hillary to carry IA and NM. Hillary gets 264 ev.

In 1996 States which Clinton won in the single digits- besides AZ and FL.
1)KY
2)MO
3)NV
4)NM
5)OH
6)OR
7)PA
8)TN

Bush carried KY,MO,NV,OH,and TN. but lost NM,OR,and PA. However Bush carried AR,LA,and WV

Hillary will carry all of the Kerry States plus
IA,NM,OH,NV,and CO.
FL,MO,VA,and AR will be battleground states.


by nkpolitics on Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 01:12:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 800 Pound Gorilla: Hillary Clinton (none / 0)

Your math is seriously flawed.

Chris Bowers on Openleft, who is clearly not a Hillary supporter, dissected state poll after state poll (all the head to heads) and came up with an electoral map that gives Clinton 310 (or was it 315?) electoral college votes.  That is based on hard facts, hard data.   Whatever you use to make your case is not hard data, but flimsy evidence (anecdotal?) that seems to be "fuzzy math"-ish.  


by georgep on Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 01:41:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 800 Pound Gorilla: Hillary Clinton (none / 0)

Not so long ago it was 51% of people that said they wouldn't vote for her under any circumstances. So she is making progress ;-D

Seriously though, about 46 of those 48% are Republicans. Who gives a damn what they think?


by DoIT on Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 02:40:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Candidate Reviews at MyDD (2.00 / 2)

What MyDD did in asking bloggers of different candidates to write about their candidate at the FP is really good for Democracy.

I hope newspapers do this too.  Instead of focusing on controversies and gaffes--MyDD focuses on issues and what candidates plan for this issue.

It is really great debate that is issue oriented.

It is really great and should be emulated in newspapers.


by jasmine on Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 12:17:10 PM EST

Re: Candidate Reviews at MyDD (none / 0)

Exactly, jasmine.  The focus on issues (via the frontpage) is what makes MyDD the best site in the sphere.  I read with interest the diaries from all frontpagers, am learning more about their stances on issues than would be possible in an echo chamber that exists to bash one or the other candidate (say, a site whose frontpagers like Edwards and dislike Clinton and Obama.)


by georgep on Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 01:37:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Candidate Reviews at MyDD (none / 0)

Jasmime:

I'm glad you have enjoyed the candidate diaries. Thank you.

This week has been better, but as someone who has put a lot of effort into some of my front page diaries, I have found it quite frustrating. Most weeks, the level of discussion in these candidate diaries has been so discouraging that I can't even read the comments.


by hwc on Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 02:06:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Candidate Reviews at MyDD (none / 0)

I dont read comments. Because it can be bloody as they all have their passion

 I have no Dean in this race--but I do understand the passion of the commenters because I have been there in 2004 when I desperately wanted Dean to win.

In 2004 -- it was mostly Deaniacs vs Clarkies now--there are Hillary, Edwards, Obama, and the Kuciniches and less so the others.


by jasmine on Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 09:52:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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