Update - For clarity's sake, I should note that the first chart is marking voter turnout trends for the General Election in January primary states. I post it (along with primary-specific, supporting data) merely to highlight trends in youth voting habits.

A new report by The Century Foundation takes all of the CIRCLE, YVS and Green/Gerber research from the last 7 years, rolls it up into a ball, and throws out a terrific summary of what's happened with the youth vote in the last 4 years.  Campaign staffers looking to convince their boss that young voters are worth the time and effort should carry this report with them at all times, because it's one of the best summaries I've seen (and highly readable at only 11 pages).  

Of interest to me were the stats on youth turnout and share of the population in the early primary states.  It looks like young voters are set to play a larger role than ever in the nominating process.  How decisive a role that will be is hard to say without some more data specific to each of the early primary states.

Here's where we stand.  In 2004, young voters made up somewhere around 1/5 of the primary electorate in the early states. In Iowa, youth turnout in the caucuses quadrupled (pdf) in 2004, and 18-29 year olds constituted a larger share of the electorate than 30-44 year olds.   In New Hampshire, young voters also increased their primary turnout (at pace with the rest of the electorate).  In three of the first primary states, youth participation in the general election increased substantially in 2004 and in 2006.  

All the signs point towards a continuation of that trend - we have a youth electorate that is more engaged than previous generations at this point in the cycle (see Century Foundation report), a competitive primary with two exciting candidates that are both picking up sizeable youth support, and a general election that many see as one of the most important in their lifetime.  Additionally, young voters are more likely than ever to participate in a Democratic primary or caucus.  58% of young voters (pdf) identify as Democrats vs. 36% Republican and only 6% Independent.  Because Iowa and Nevada both have same-day registration, and New Hampshire allows unaffiliated voters to participate in either primary, upwards of 64% of all young people who vote in January might be participating in the Democratic primary/caucus.

What does this mean?  Young people will have a larger say in who our nominee is than at any point in recent history.  Seeing how the Millennial Generation will be bigger than the Baby Boom when all is said and done, I wouldn't be surprised to see young voters comprise 1/4 of the primary electorate in some of the early states this year. It would be hyperbole to say that young people will/can decide this election, but they'll be a substantial player for sure.  And here's the other thing: because they're more likely to lack a land-line telephone, most of these kids are not getting included in the polling of Iowa and New Hampshire that we're seeing.  Yeah.  20-25% of the electorate is  unaccounted for in most of the polling we're seeing.

What does that translate into for the candidates?  That is less clear. Obama is polling the highest as the number 1 choice for young voters, but Hillary isn't too far behind, and she actually pulls ahead when you add first and second choice.  That will be important in Nevada and Iowa, where many candidates will be declared "non-viable" as the caucus winnows the candidates and forces voters to their second choice.  It's an important corrective for RT Strategies decision to muck up the results by including Gore in their poll.