MN-Sen: Coleman Below 50 Percent Against Franken, Ciresi

The story of the race for the United States Senate in 2008 to this point it the abundance of serious pick up opportunities for the Democrats. Todd just wrote about Virginia, which is one of the one or two best chances for the Democrats to win a new seat this cycle. But even outside of the Virginia, Colorado, Nebraska and New Hampshire, all of which might lean Democrat by the time voters go to the polls next fall, the Democrats have a number of solid pick up opportunities elsewhere in the country, including Minnesota. Take a look at the latest Rasmussen Reports numbers out of the state showing freshman Republican Senator not at all immune to bids from either of his leading Democratic challengers, Al Franken or Mike Ciresi.

500 LVs, September 6, MoE +/- 4.5%

Head-to-heads

Coleman 46
Franken 41

Coleman 46
Ciresi 42

Favorables

Coleman 54/46
Franken 46/47
Ciresi 40/43

An incumbent sitting at under 50 percent against either of his named Democratic challengers is weak no matter how you slice it. Particularly when you take into consideration that both of Coleman's potential adversaries have relatively high unfavorable numbers yet he still cannot get to 50 percent, Coleman looks weak.

No doubt Minnesota is not a gimme for the Democrats. But with the growing number of races in which the Democrats have a realistic chance at winning it becomes increasingly difficult for the Republicans to hold each of their potentially endangered seats (a finite amount of money gets stretched thinner and thinner as it goes to more and more states, particularly when some of those states are especially expensive, like Virginia and New Hampshire).

If you want to get involved in this race, head on over to the MyDD/Daily Kos/Swing State Project/Open Left Blue Majority Act Blue page and throw a few dollars in the direction of Mr. Franken.



Display:


Ciresi stronger candidate? (none / 0)

Is Ciresi the stronger candidate? Looks like it. Maybe Franken will never get past being a comedian/satirist.


by cmpnwtr on Tue Sep 11, 2007 at 12:57:56 PM EST

Re: Ciresi stronger candidate? (none / 0)

I don't get that at all.  Statistically Franken and Ciresi poll the same against Coleman.  The big difference is the approval/disapproval rating and Franken has a better net approval rating.  Ciresi may be less well known despite having run for statewide office before but he doesn't have the same level of resources that Franken has.  Both Franken and Ciresi have to get to a positive approval rating if they want to beat Coleman or get Coleman's approval rating below his disapproval rating too.  With Franken's resources he is clearly the stronger candidate right now because he can spend them to improve his approval rating and go after Coleman.  Either way it looks like Coleman is in trouble.


by msstaley on Tue Sep 11, 2007 at 04:32:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Against Franken, Ciresi (none / 0)

54% Favor Coleman but only 46% would vote to reelect him?  That doesn't make any sense.  


by JeremiahTheMessiah on Tue Sep 11, 2007 at 12:59:09 PM EST

Re: Against Franken, Ciresi (none / 0)

Might be because Bush is dragging down the numbers.  People might like Coleman but want to send a message to Republicans.  Might also be that people who like Coleman like the Democratic candidates better or are undecided.


by msstaley on Tue Sep 11, 2007 at 04:35:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I don't think it was wise (none / 0)

for the netroots to get behind a candidate in this primary.

I stay out of primaries in other people's states unless one candidate (like Tester) is clearly superior to the other. I haven't seen evidence that Franken is either a lot better on the issues than Ciresi or a lot more likely to beat Coleman.


John McCain: 100 years in Iraq "would be fine with me."
by desmoinesdem on Tue Sep 11, 2007 at 01:31:24 PM EST

Re: I don't think it was wise (none / 0)

I agree with this.  A 4-5 point lead for Coleman at this stage in the game is very good news for Dems, and we should be happy to see either one of these strong candidates get the nomination.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Tue Sep 11, 2007 at 01:53:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

whoever wins the nomination (none / 0)

will be getting a donation from me, that's for sure. I can't stand Coleman.


John McCain: 100 years in Iraq "would be fine with me."
by desmoinesdem on Tue Sep 11, 2007 at 02:20:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: MN-Sen: Coleman Below 50 Percent vs. Franken (none / 0)

Charlie Cook today says that Franken "is running a professional campaign but has high negatives", suggesting that Dems would be smarter to nominate Ciresi.  But this poll shows only one point difference in the negatives, though Ciresi has significantly higher positives.


by DaveMB on Tue Sep 11, 2007 at 01:33:38 PM EST

Re: MN-Sen: Coleman Below 50 Percent vs. Franken (none / 0)

Are you sure about that?  Aren't positives the first number?


John McCain: Bush right to veto kids health insurance expansion
by Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle on Tue Sep 11, 2007 at 02:08:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: MN-Sen: Coleman Below 50 Percent vs. Franken (none / 0)

You are right.  Both have net disapproval but Franken's net disapproval is less.  However, it may be that Ciresi has a larger group of undecideds he can influence while Franken has to get people to completely change their minds about him.  Fortunately for Franken he has the resources to do just that.


by msstaley on Tue Sep 11, 2007 at 04:38:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: MN-Sen: Coleman Below 50 Percent Against Frank (none / 0)

I think Coleman is going to regret the decision to bring Bush in for a fundraiser this cycle. Minnesota is actually a state that moved further away from Bush between 2000 and 2004, and no amount of money that Coleman raises will be worth the picture of Smilin' Norm and President Bush arm in arm.


by AC4508 on Tue Sep 11, 2007 at 05:08:19 PM EST

Not surprising numbers (none / 0)

These numbers aren't that surprising.  Ciresi does really well among the over 50 crowd.  This probably is where his edge over Franken is (I'll analyze the numbers closer as soon as I get a chance).  What is surprising is that Norm's negative approval/disapproval numbers are still so high.  He hasn't been getting all that friendly press from the big papers (Mpls Star Tribune or St. Paul Pioneer Press) nor in the papers outside the metro.  However, he has been getting a lot of press.  Maybe that helps somehow.

If anyone would like some more thorough analysis of the Minnesota Senate race, I've interviewed the candidates and have been analyzing the race:

MN-SEN Candidate Comparison 4 (latest)
Polling analysis from July poll
Candidate Comparison 1
Mike Ciresi interview
Al Franken Campaign
Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer interview


"still afloat out of sheer distraction on the part of fate" Gabriel Garcia Marquez
by The Big E on Tue Sep 11, 2007 at 05:30:38 PM EST


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