The good folks at Raising Kaine reported on an unannounced visit by former Gov. Mark Warner, on bike no less, to the The Mount Vernon Democratic Committee ice cream social this past Sunday. At the event, Warner reportedly confided that he'd be announcing his candidacy this week...but for what office, whether a run for senate in 2008 or for the governorship in 2009, was still unclear.
Many in Virginia would prefer that he hold out for another run for governor so that they'd have a Democrat to oversee redistricting in 2010, which could be contentious if Democrats don't take over majorities in the General Assembly next year. Another benefit to Warner's waiting to run for governor: he leaves himself open to potentially fill a VP slot on the Democratic ticket in 2008. One man who is no doubt rooting for a Warner senate bid is DSCC head Chuck Schumer, and the new Rasmussen poll out today will certainly do nothing to tamp down that desire.
Rasmussen polled favorability ratings for Warner and his two most likely Republican senate opponents, former governor (and erstwhile presidential candidate) Jim Gilmore and Congressman Tom Davis. These numbers (favorable/unfavorable) confirm Mark Warner's popularity in Virginia.
Mark Warner 68/28
Jim Gilmore 49/42
Tom Davis 43/35
As you'd expect with numbers like those, the head to head match-ups are just as uneven:
Warner 54%
Gilmore 34%Warner 57%
Davis 30%
It should be noted that Davis's weakness here is in part a function of his not being as well known statewide. If Davis were the nominee, he would presumbaly close the gap considerably. Gilmore, on the other hand, would be toast.
Charlie Cook's take on the race expands on this (via RK):
Mark Warner would be considered an almost prohibitive favorite over another former governor, Republican James Gilmore, who left the job somewhat inauspiciously, while a much more competitive race could be waged by GOP Rep. Tom Davis, who could cut into growing Democratic margins in Northern Virginia and the Tidewater region.A possible GOP fight over whether to have a convention or a primary, a decision the state party makes, then another between Davis and Gilmore would waste time and resources in a state that has become more mid-Atlantic than Southern.
Between these numbers for Warner and another Rasmussen poll of Virginia voters out today that shows Bush at 38% job approval and Hillary Clinton beating the top Republican contenders by anywhere from 2 to 4%, it's hard to take Mary Matalin's insistence on Meet The Press last weekend that Virginia is "trending purple, but only purple...it's still a red state" as anything more than GOP wishful thinking.
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