Rasmussen: Democrats Have No Issue Advantage Over GOP Candidates

Recent polling, including an Aug. 1 Rasmussen poll as well as the latest NBC/WSJ poll, gives the Democratic Party a generic advantage on virtually every issue, often, as with health care, the economy and global warming, by significant margins. So it was surprising to see this new Rasmussen poll, which takes it from generic to specific and asks which candidates, of either party, voters would trust on certain issues. The upshot:

While America's voters are not particularly happy with the current Republican President, the leading Democratic Presidential Candidates have no advantage over the top GOP Hopefuls when it comes to Iraq, the Economy, or Restoring the Nation's Optimism. Democratic candidates do have an edge when it comes to the environment while the GOP candidates hold the lead on immigration...[and] also have the edge when it comes to the economy.

A breakdown of results can be found HERE. A summary:

Iraq:

Democrats: 42%
Republicans: 41%
Top vote getter: Hillary Clinton (20%)

Economy:

Democrats: 44%
Republicans: 43%
Top vote getter: Hillary Clinton (27%)

Environment:

Democrats: 46%
Republicans: 35%
Top vote getter: Hillary Clinton (23%)

Immigration:

Democrats: 38%
Republicans: 44%
Top vote getter: Hillary Clinton (17%)

Restoring the nation's optimism:

Democrats: 47%
Republicans: 44%
Top vote getter: Rudy Giuliani & Barack Obama (21%)

Some observations over the flip...

Notice that Hillary Clinton wins most trusted on all but one issue among all respondents, due in part to the fact that a. she is more popular among Democrats than Rudy Giuliani is among Republicans and b. respondents spread their choices among 4 Republicans and just 3 Democrats (with yet another category "other candidate" to catch the rest.) It also reflects the widely held view among her supporters that Hillary Clinton is competent and a problem solver -- the only issue for which she wasn't the first choice was the amorphous "restoring the nation's optimism."

I expect that this poll is more comparable to the national head to head match-ups (which are still pretty tight) rather than the generic issue match ups and so I'd expect that Democrats would continue to improve as they have in the head to heads. Notice that the order in which each party ranks its candidates here matches up pretty well with the national primary numbers.

Unaffiliated voters are interesting in that, as one might expect, they give Barack Obama the highest marks on 3 of the 5 questions, but in general trust the GOP candidates more than the pool of respondents as a whole, which sort of flies in the face of how independents are leaning.

Thoughts on this poll? Is it relevant? Flawed? More or less predictive of voters' likely behavior than the generic issue ballots? Is it a storm cloud, a speed bump or neither?



Display:


Rasmussen's (3.00 / 4)

Rasmussen's issue polls are quirk, to see the least. They told us democrats were for Obama's dictator meeting, it seemed that Obama campaign took heart of that poll. The end result, we all know...

I do believe next year is another tough battle. It's going to be a squeak even the strongest democrat gets the nod.

Many liberals are overconfident.


Hillary: We will finally have a president who doesn't mind pulling over and asking for directions. Am I right, ladies?
by areyouready on Wed Aug 08, 2007 at 11:08:19 PM EST

Re: Rasmussen's (none / 0)

Why was this troll rated?  I agree with the commenter that we are overconfident...  the republican political machine is very strong and effective, especially when closing.

Thanks,

Mike


by lordmikethegreat on Wed Aug 08, 2007 at 11:50:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rasmussen's (none / 0)

Rasmussen is always reliably Republican. consider the source.


by changehorses08 on Thu Aug 09, 2007 at 02:57:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

So the supposed Obama "surge" (none / 0)

in the very latest polls is credible?  People trust this guy?  C'mon.  Methinks, just like Matt Sludge, Scottie just doesn't like Hillary Rodham Clinton.


McCain is defining Obama, and Obama is neither defining himself, nor McCain. This is awful.
by jgarcia on Wed Aug 08, 2007 at 11:21:28 PM EST

Re: Rasmussen: Democrats Have No Issue Advantage O (none / 0)

Why would people trust Democrats? They just voted to give Bush the authority to tap anybody's phone and read anybody's e-mail without a warrant. Who would trust someone who would do something so stupid? I sure don't.


by Pope Jeremy on Wed Aug 08, 2007 at 11:23:35 PM EST

Re: Rasmussen: Democrats Have No Issue Advantage O (3.00 / 1)

You wanna trust another Republican?  Next time they privatize healthcare for all cause it'll be so much cheaper when we all can shop around for the best prices.  And lets have more terror talk shall we????????


by changehorses08 on Thu Aug 09, 2007 at 03:01:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Umm (3.00 / 0)

It is a Rassmussen poll.

Do you need to know more?


by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Aug 08, 2007 at 11:25:46 PM EST

Re: Umm (none / 0)

Big Tent,

Did you see 'Chris Bower' new analysis. It's just so amusing, I attached an excerpt to one of your comments, perhaps you didn't notice that.

I'm still laughing.


Hillary: We will finally have a president who doesn't mind pulling over and asking for directions. Am I right, ladies?
by areyouready on Wed Aug 08, 2007 at 11:29:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Umm (none / 0)

I'll take a look.


by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Aug 09, 2007 at 12:02:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Umm (none / 0)

Here is his recent 'analysis' on IA poll.


Some of you might remember an old hobby horse of mine, The Inflated Clinton Poll Theory. The original hypothesis that led to the theory was that Hillary Clinton drawing disproportionate support in national and early state polls from Democrats who were less likely to vote. In the end, I concluded that thesis was incorrect, and instead argued that Clinton's support was only overstated by the degree to which different polling firms would push undecideds to make a choice. However, a new Iowa poll suggests that, at least in Iowa, the Inflated Clinton Poll Theory might actually be valid:


Hillary: We will finally have a president who doesn't mind pulling over and asking for directions. Am I right, ladies?
by areyouready on Thu Aug 09, 2007 at 12:11:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Umm (none / 0)

Lordy Bowers.... let it GO.


by MNPundit on Thu Aug 09, 2007 at 02:18:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The format is screwy and proves nothing (none / 0)

At first I was dismayed, and puzzled....it just did not compute.  But then I went to look at the breakdown of the numbers.  What can I say?    The format is idiotic, idiotic enough to prove that Rasmussen as usual was casting about for a way to engender just such a result.

I tried to copy it but it won't line up enough to display well enough to show why this is sheer idiocy. Below is the link.

It reminds of the Math comedians , ho would come onto Ed Sullivan and in the most laughable fashion show that 43-39 is 11, not 4.  They did this by subtracting the smaller numbers from the bigger no matter in what place they were.  this shows the same lack of rhyme or reason.    

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_c ontent/politics/election_2008__1/electio n_2008_best_candidate_to_handle_key_issu es

They list all the canodidates, Democratic and Republican, ask people to choose one and only one and then based on no rationale whatever add up the numbers for each candidate to get the total party numbers.  The sheer number of candidates alone almost guarentee this kind of result.

What they should have done, but didn't, was to do head to head match ups, candidate to candidate....Dem to Republican.  This of course might replicate the general presidential matchups anyway, but at least that would be legitimate and have some basis in prior polling history and procedures..


by debcoop on Thu Aug 09, 2007 at 12:35:32 AM EST

Re: The format is screwy and proves nothing (none / 0)

Well, I am glad you ddi the specific work but to me just saying Rassmussen was enough.

silly post on this. Never look at Rassmussen for stuff like this.


by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Aug 09, 2007 at 08:56:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

It could be a sign.... (none / 0)

It could be a warning that we're overconfident.

The bottom line is that people want change, and we haven't seen it since Dems took Congress.

And with their surrender on Iraq, as well as the FISA vote, people are starting to believe that there is no difference between the two parties.

If the Dems are going to win in 2008, we need to make sure that people do see a difference.


by djtyg on Thu Aug 09, 2007 at 12:54:26 AM EST

Re: Rasmussen: Democrats Have No Issue Advantage O (none / 0)

How the hell do democrats see Hillary as the best on the environment? Anyways Im sick of polls, call me in late fall and I may care.


by PROfess PROgress on Thu Aug 09, 2007 at 12:54:28 AM EST

Re: (3.00 / 1)

I agree with previous posters here.  The sheer mathematics make this virtually without value.  You can't take 3 Democrats and 4 Republicans and just add up all the numbers and you achieve your total.  It has to be weighted to make up for that 1 missing entry for our side.

The only fair way to do this would be as follows:

War on Iraq

Clinton 20%
Obama 16%
Edwards 6%

total 42%

weighted to allow for fourth GOPer, using the common denominator for 4 and 3 of 12:

Democrats 56%, Republicans 41%

There are similar advantages for Democrats across the board, which is reflective of similar findings in other polls that showed a Generic Congressional advantage and also a strong lead in most of the 10 important issues facing the nation.  

The only true way of making this poll would have been to put the top 3 Democrats up against the top 3 Republicans.  


by georgep on Thu Aug 09, 2007 at 02:28:03 AM EST

Re: (none / 0)

Just another Rasmussen pity poll.  Worthless.  I wonder if they actually do any analysis or do they just copy what Rove sends them?


by changehorses08 on Thu Aug 09, 2007 at 03:04:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rasmussen: Democrats Have No Issue (none / 0)

Those top vote getter numbers prove just how IGNORANTLY MISLED the public is by the televison set.

When you look at "INFORMED PEOPLE" like those at MoveOn, John Edwards wins the environmental straw poll for having substance and believability.

When you poll idiots who get most of their info from the T.V. screen, you get Hillary having the best plans when she doesn't have ANY PLANS WHATSOEVER.

God people are so freaking stupid they get what they deserve.


by OE on Thu Aug 09, 2007 at 05:34:54 PM EST

Re: Rasmussen: Democrats Have No Issue (none / 0)

TELEVISION


by OE on Thu Aug 09, 2007 at 05:35:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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