Recent polling, including an Aug. 1 Rasmussen poll as well as the latest NBC/WSJ poll, gives the Democratic Party a generic advantage on virtually every issue, often, as with health care, the economy and global warming, by significant margins. So it was surprising to see this new Rasmussen poll, which takes it from generic to specific and asks which candidates, of either party, voters would trust on certain issues. The upshot:
While America's voters are not particularly happy with the current Republican President, the leading Democratic Presidential Candidates have no advantage over the top GOP Hopefuls when it comes to Iraq, the Economy, or Restoring the Nation's Optimism. Democratic candidates do have an edge when it comes to the environment while the GOP candidates hold the lead on immigration...[and] also have the edge when it comes to the economy.
A breakdown of results can be found HERE. A summary:
Iraq:
Democrats: 42%
Republicans: 41%
Top vote getter: Hillary Clinton (20%)
Economy:
Democrats: 44%
Republicans: 43%
Top vote getter: Hillary Clinton (27%)
Environment:
Democrats: 46%
Republicans: 35%
Top vote getter: Hillary Clinton (23%)
Immigration:
Democrats: 38%
Republicans: 44%
Top vote getter: Hillary Clinton (17%)
Restoring the nation's optimism:
Democrats: 47%
Republicans: 44%
Top vote getter: Rudy Giuliani & Barack Obama (21%)
Some observations over the flip...
Notice that Hillary Clinton wins most trusted on all but one issue among all respondents, due in part to the fact that a. she is more popular among Democrats than Rudy Giuliani is among Republicans and b. respondents spread their choices among 4 Republicans and just 3 Democrats (with yet another category "other candidate" to catch the rest.) It also reflects the widely held view among her supporters that Hillary Clinton is competent and a problem solver -- the only issue for which she wasn't the first choice was the amorphous "restoring the nation's optimism."
I expect that this poll is more comparable to the national head to head match-ups (which are still pretty tight) rather than the generic issue match ups and so I'd expect that Democrats would continue to improve as they have in the head to heads. Notice that the order in which each party ranks its candidates here matches up pretty well with the national primary numbers.
Unaffiliated voters are interesting in that, as one might expect, they give Barack Obama the highest marks on 3 of the 5 questions, but in general trust the GOP candidates more than the pool of respondents as a whole, which sort of flies in the face of how independents are leaning.
Thoughts on this poll? Is it relevant? Flawed? More or less predictive of voters' likely behavior than the generic issue ballots? Is it a storm cloud, a speed bump or neither?
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