Clinton Continues To Have It Both Ways On Iraq

Count me among those who expected Hillary Clinton's refusal to apologize for her vote to authorize the war to be a bigger problem for her in this primary. I saw footage of her early on getting confronted with the question at townhall meetings in Iowa and New Hampshire and thought surely she won't be able to get away with finessing this with the anti-Iraq occupation Democratic primary electorate. Well, by the look of Clinton's strength in both early state and national polling, so far she is.

The latest Pew poll finds that

While Pew's June survey found 80% of Democratic voters saying Iraq was very important to their vote, it has yet to become a defining issue in the primary contest.

The poll asked Democratic or Democratic-leaning voters whether the party's leadership is challenging Bush's Iraq policy strongly enough. 56% said no yet the poll found that the candidate preferences of this majority don't differ from those that think the Dem leadership is doing just the right amount to push back against Bush on Iraq.

Among those that said the leadership is doing the "right amount," support for the candidates is as follows:

Hillary Clinton: 42%
Barack Obama: 21%
John Edwards: 9%
Bill Richardson: 2%

Among those that feel the leadership is "not doing enough":

Hillary Clinton: 42%
Barack Obama: 22%
John Edwards: 10%
Bill Richardson: 3%

Voters at large are not seeing any appreciable difference among the candidates on Iraq even though John Edwards has made it very clear he regrets his vote and has become fiercely against the war, Barack Obama has reminded voters time and time again that he came out against war with Iraq back in 2002 when it wasn't popular to do so and Richardson is constantly telling us he will leave no residual troops in Iraq. It appears the Democratic primary electorate is sick of nuance on this issue -- it's either get out or more of the same and they see Hillary on the right side of that question. Not surprisingly, Stoller disagrees and sees some real problems with the language Clinton used in the debate last night. While I may have a little more faith than Matt as to Clinton's intentions with respect to Iraq, I would like to see more scrutiny of Clinton's real plans when it comes to getting our troops out.



Display:


Sadly, (none / 0)

I don't see what more Edwards can do to differentiate himself from Obama and HRC on Iraq, labor, trade, and UHC.  But especially regarding Iraq, it seems that no one is listening.

Perhaps HRC's strategy of trying to win the primary whilst not sabotaging herself for the general, by what she says during the primary, is working.


McCain is defining Obama, and Obama is neither defining himself, nor McCain. This is awful.
by jgarcia on Wed Aug 08, 2007 at 01:38:18 PM EST

Re: Clinton Continues To Have It Both Ways On Iraq (none / 0)

I think that Hillary may have maxed out her support.  When she entered the race, everyone already had an opinion of her.

I really do think that she will fall.


by RepublicanWatch on Wed Aug 08, 2007 at 01:41:04 PM EST

Re: Clinton Continues To Have It Both Ways On Iraq (none / 0)

Ha ha , You say that every month .


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Wed Aug 08, 2007 at 01:42:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

as long as deaths are falling -- or not publicized (none / 0)

hillary's going to get a pass on this.  which puts me (at least) in a tough spot.  i'm not at all interested in seeing more american troops killed and if she's a beneficiary of that, so be it.  i would expect if the number of deaths start to rise again, she would be hurt by that, because it will bring it back to the forefront of people's minds.  that's my guess...


"We did not come to fear the future. We came here to shape it." - President Obama, Sept 9, 2009
by bored now on Wed Aug 08, 2007 at 01:45:22 PM EST

Re: Clinton Continues To Have It Both Ways On Iraq (3.00 / 3)

Since 2003, the majority of Americans have moved from being in favor of the Iraq war to being against it.  Why, then, should those same Americans fault Clinton for a similar evolution?


by BigBoyBlue on Wed Aug 08, 2007 at 01:47:26 PM EST

most won't... (none / 0)

i don't think too many people expected that most would.  the real question is, what about those on the margins?  can hillary afford to lose anti-war voters?  since i don't know her path to victory (i can guess, but it's only a guess), i can't say whether this is damaging to her plans.  kerry got 89% of the democratic vote while bush got 93% -- but each made up 37% of the electorate.  they split the other vote 49% to 48%, which meant that bush's ability to secure and turn out his base was the reason why he won.

so i come back to this: can the democratic nominee afford to lose the progressive votes that hillary seems willing to write off?


"We did not come to fear the future. We came here to shape it." - President Obama, Sept 9, 2009
by bored now on Wed Aug 08, 2007 at 02:15:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: most won't... (none / 0)

She will be forced to talk about the number of troops in her residual force that will be left in Iraq to carry out the missions that she proposes.

If she doesn't give a number it will come out. The Baker Hamilton plan envisions a residual force of 80-100,000 troops. A policy group that is an adjunct to a progressive or liberal think tank estimates it at 60,000 troops.

The political ramification will be devastating to any candidate's residual force structure in those ranges will hurt the democratic candidate enormously. Either an anti-war candidate like Nader will pick up 5-8% of the vote and the republican candidate will argue that the democrats will not be getting out of Iraq and thus neutralize that issue for them.


by BDM on Wed Aug 08, 2007 at 02:40:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: most won't... (none / 0)

Why will Hillary before forced to talk about her residual troops but not Edwards and Obama?

I think pretty much everyone knows were going to have residual troops and most Americans don't care. They'd like an immediate full withdraw but realistically they'd rather have a safe withdrawl than a quick withdraw


by world dictator on Wed Aug 08, 2007 at 03:34:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

unfortunately, you have to define residual force.. (none / 0)

these days.  do you mean the forces left behind to guard the embassy?  or a residual force left behind to protect our national interests?  do you consider over-the-horizon forces to be residual forces?  barack, in the speeches i've seen, calls for withdrawing from iraq, keeping a substantial force over the horizon, and protecting our embassy.  is that a residual force?  it's not, to me...


"We did not come to fear the future. We came here to shape it." - President Obama, Sept 9, 2009
by bored now on Thu Aug 09, 2007 at 01:27:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: most won't... (none / 0)

One thing to ask is whether she must have those votes?

The GOPer nominee in 2008 will not get 93% party support in 2008.  The GOPer nominee will not split the others in 2008.


"We live entangled in webs of endless deceit, often self-deceit, but with a little honest effort, it is possible to extricate ourselves from them". -- NC
by Trond Jacobsen on Wed Aug 08, 2007 at 06:17:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Continues To Have It Both Ways On Iraq (none / 0)

I also thought it would be a bigger issue. But it's really not--if it was, Obama would have 41% in the polls, not her.

I think voters just don't care about the war vote--they are really focusing on the future, and to my dismay Democratic voters actually seem to REALLY LIKE HER and are not deterred by a vote that ocurred 5 years ago.

People believe her and pretty much all the Dems when they say they will end the war. I think voters care more about what they say they will do on the war than what they did 5 years ago. And while she doesn't say that it was a "mistake" she does say she wouldn't have voted for it knowing then what she does now. I guess that answer just satisfies voters enough.


by need some wood on Wed Aug 08, 2007 at 01:49:45 PM EST

She's been consistent and taken action (3.00 / 1)

She was never perceived as the anti-war candidate so she does not have to explain why she does not advocate total withdrawal. She forced the Pentagon to brief the Senate on Iraq withdrawal plans, putting Cheney in his place.

Many people don't like her Iraq AUMF vote, but most Democrats want someone who has a plan and is making progress. Edwards is not in government, so he can only talk, and Obama talks a good game but has no accomplishments to point to. Neither of them are saying anything significantly different than Clinton with regard to Iraq withdrawal.


by souvarine on Wed Aug 08, 2007 at 02:06:11 PM EST

Re: Clinton Continues To Have It Both Ways On Iraq (none / 0)

Iraq is a very touchy situation and has multiple angles at which it can be argued for and against. As with all wars. I can, to a certain degree, believe that Clinton could could've made both stances in the issue. Politics are not black and white. According to the Borgen Project however, we spent over 340 billion dollars in this effort and that is not acceptible.


by Erica2007 on Wed Aug 08, 2007 at 02:18:56 PM EST

Not both ways. Her way. (none / 0)

She has been pretty consistant.  I don't have to repeat it - what she thought best, take responsibility, can't go back, look forward, etc.

It has worked I think because it is a clear message, it is one many can relate to, and she has stuck to it and not tried to change her message on Iraq and her vote a bunch of times.

That is just plain good politics.

It makes her look strong and pragmatic.  


by dpANDREWS on Wed Aug 08, 2007 at 02:22:00 PM EST

Re: Not both ways. Her way. (none / 0)

I think as the campaign goes on all candidates are going to have to talk about their residual force structure. If IT IS IN THE RANGE OF 60-100,000 troops of estimates that I have seen from the Brooking's estimate to the Baker-Hamilton report estimate,then  their is no way our candidates can argue they are ending the war and the US is getting out of Iraq. The reason we won in 2006 was because of Iraq. The congress un-fairly or not is being held to the fire by not ending the war.


by BDM on Wed Aug 08, 2007 at 02:47:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Continues To Have It Both Ways On Iraq (none / 0)

I support in Candidate Clinton's stand on the war in Iraq and believe in her capabilities for restoring America's stand in the world.  I think America needs to prove itself and to the world that we are better than investing $340 billion dollars into a fruitless war.  According to the Borgen Project, whose goal is to fight and reduce global poverty, it only takes $19 billion dollars annually to eliminate poverty across the globe.  However, our government is spending an average of $2 billion dollars a week in Iraq creating more poverty and hunger.  As Americans, we definitely need to support organizations such as the Borgen Project as well as candidates that recognize the importance of the issue of global poverty.


by Mstessyrue on Wed Aug 08, 2007 at 06:43:55 PM EST

Re: Clinton Continues To Have It Both Ways On Iraq (none / 0)

Senator Clinton is trying to have it three ways on Iraq, and so far, Democrats are letting her.  She voted for the war, unapologetically, but now says she will end it if elected.  Ending it somehow means leaving behind what in simpler times might have been called an "occupying army", but now goes by the term "residual force."


by Lex on Wed Aug 08, 2007 at 09:00:16 PM EST

My hit on this whole thing (3.00 / 2)

THEN

Clinton votes for war authorization.
Bad, but we can't really fire the whole Party

Obama was not in the same position of being forced to choose under high-stakes political pressure, but still he came out against the war before it started.
Good

LATER

Clinton refuses to admit she made a mistake in 2002, but tries to finesse the issue like a politician.
Who cares

Obama tries to make something out of Clinton's trying to finesse the issue, when it's obviously no big deal.
Looks weak

NOW

Clinton criticizes Bush, is a Senate leader on out-of-Iraq resolutions, but avoids details about her future plans for Iraq.
OK, but where's the beef?

Obama criticizes Bush, is a Senate leader on out-of-Iraq resolutions, avoids details about his future plans for Iraq, but mentions having been against the war before it started 10 times a speech.
Starting to remind me of Kerry's Vietnam schtick, as in OK, we heard you the first ten million times, we know you're a hero, let's move on already

Clinton shows a nuanced grasp of foreign policy.
Strong and ready

Obama shows strong leadership instincts, but botches or glosses over the details from time to time.
The future is bright

Clinton AND Obama: too smart to have started this war if it had been up to them, too smart to leave us in Iraq if either gets elected, and smart enough to make good decisions about how to handle the situation once either becomes President and gets full access to daily intelligence, military and diplomatic briefings.
So let's give 'em a pass on the details for now--whoever gets elected will know more once he or she is in the Oval Office.


by Trickster on Wed Aug 08, 2007 at 09:06:05 PM EST

Re: Clinton Continues To Have It Both Ways On Iraq (none / 0)

I think that the nuances among the positions here just aren't that important to most voters.  They believe that Clinton, Obama and Edwards will work to get the troops out of Iraq, and they also know the wingnuts on the other side won't. That's the important distinction in people's minds.

Despite the popular trend for everyone to say they were against the war from the beginning, the simple fact is that most of the country supported the war at first because they believed Bush.  It isn't entirely unreasonable that many of our elected representatives believed him too.

Lest we forget, upwards of 70% of Americans believed that there was a connection between Iraq and 9/11 in late 2003, and in the summer of 2003, 83% believed in and supported the war. Why?  Because their president lied.  The VP lied.  Colin Powell lied, and did it with phony artwork at the UN. Condi lied.

http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/03/18/p oll.wars/index.html

John Edwards' apology means absolutely nothing to me. What I care about is that he knows he made a mistake, and he's on the right course now.  The same applies to Clinton and anyone else. I don't want your damn apology, I want you to act properly and do everything you can to end this slaughter.  I have no doubt that any of these candidates will start drawing down troops, and I have no doubt that Romney and Thompson won't.


"It pays to be obvious, especially if you have a reputation for subtlety". Salvor Hardin
by Denny Crane on Wed Aug 08, 2007 at 11:11:34 PM EST

Re: Clinton Continues To Have It Both Ways On Iraq (none / 0)

Given that a  a majority of Americans were with George Bush and this war in 2003, unless Obama couples his,"I told you so" with a plausible,"this is what we do now" plan, then he isn't really going to make any dents into Hillary.  The war is a disaster and Americans know it's a disaster.  The people who are really find the IWR vote of Edwards and Clinton unforgivable are already in his or another like candidate's camp.  That leaves people who were ambiguous or maybe supportive of the Iraq war, but are now disillusioned.  Those people can appreciate that Obama was against the war, but I don't think they have necessarily seen an impassioned anti-war candidate in Obama.  He has only recently turned up the rhetoric on his opposiiton to the war, prior to this (i.e when Feingold resolution first came out) he kept a low profile.  It also didn't help that the initial plan that Hillary, Edwards, and Obama released weren't really all that different.  I think if he's trying to capture the anti-war mood of the country by talking about his initial opposition to the war, then he is missing the reason for the anti-war mood of the American people, which I think is because Iraq is a mess, there were no WMDs, and the flowers and candy Cheney promised are now wrapped in IEDs that kill our soldiers and countless Iraqi civilians.


by Kingstongirl on Thu Aug 09, 2007 at 12:08:04 AM EST

Re: Clinton Continues To Have It Both Ways On Iraq (none / 0)

Yeah, among those who feel like "leadership is "not doing", they want Hillary Clinton who offers nothing but the status quo.

People are so naive it's sad.

The FATALISTIC TRAIT will doom humanity.  It can't help but destroy itself for rather paying attention to foolishness like American Idol instead of the American Idiot in the White House.


by OE on Thu Aug 09, 2007 at 05:38:04 PM EST


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