only an awful opponent left him standing in 2006.

Both those Michigan seats (listed as likely Republican) will be in play.. A few of the MI-09 and one of the MI-07 candidates were at YearlyKos.  

I hate to be a negative-nancy pelosi, but Bachmann's going to be harder to knock off than you make her out to be. Sure, she had the crazy Iran thing, but she's managed to keep a fairly low profile since, and this district, while in Minnesota, isn't exactly part of the inner Twin Cities suburbs/small outstate cities that are trending liberal and producing the big wins for us in the state. The District's Cook PVI is R+5--not impossible, but a fairly awkward district by Minnesotan standards. In the state's 8 districts, only Blue Dog Dem Collin Peterson's 7th is more conservative at R+6. Now that doesn't mean we need to run a Blue Dog, but we're probably going to need to find a Tim Walz-like figure, a lot of netroots and(hopefully)/or DCCC support, and maybe another tractable gaffe or two by Bachmann to reinforce the "crazy" narrative.

In truth, this district's demographics would lend it well to a moderate Republican in the mold of Jim Ramstad in MN-03 (whose district is growing more and more liberal on him). The district is 96% white, and I would guess it's median income is on the mid-to-higher side for MN as a whole (it's a suburban/exurban/rural district).

Like I said, I think it's possible to win here, especially against crazy Bachmann and not some milquetoast Club-for-Growther, but we need a good candidate. Patty Wetterling wasn't that candidate in 2006, and won't be running again. One possibility is Elwyn Tinklenberg. Funny name aside, Tinklenberg is a former Methodist Minister, a bit socially conservative for my taste, but likely in sync with the overall pitch of the district:

Tinklenberg opposes legalized abortion, favors gun rights and supports a federal ban on gay marriage, provided there are some legal protections in place for gay couples. Those views are to the right of many Democrats, but could play well in the socially conservative 6th district.

I don't really feel like selling out on important issues like choice and gay rights to pick up Michelle Bachmann's seat, and like I said, I think it's possible for a non-Blue Dog to win here. That being said, I know Tinklenberg began moving to the left at the end of the primary last year, when he saw Wetterling eclipsing him in popularity among Democrats. I believe he called for an immediate Iraq withdrawal and possibly looking into impeachment proceedings against Bush--heady words, especially back then.

Who knows? Maybe he's had a John Edwards-esque awakening to Democratic Primary electorate reality/doing the right thing in the past 2 years.  In any case, it's going to be a tough fight, and this is probably one of those districts where it wouldn't help to have Hillary at the top of the ballot.

roskam in il-06.  the local party is ineptly led, the barbarians are storming the gates there, and roskam benefits from all the peculiar illinois machine advantages that stem from the combine...

MI-09 Knollenberg is only R+0

A base vote analysis of the district supports that it is winnable.

1) Although 41 freshmen Democrats came in in 2006, all 26 on this list are among the 30 who knocked off Republican seats.

2) The GA seats are divided, one as Lean Dem the other as Likely Dem,  That's pushing it.

3) Michael Arcuri's district (NY-24) has changed pretty rapidly since Boehlert's retirement.  The first six months (via registration figures) show an exodus of GOP voters.  I think he's pretty safe and I think Joe Sestak is pretty safe.  For a freshman, Sestak's win was pretty easy.

4) Dennis Moore, again?  At least they didn't include Earl Pomeroy (ND) as Cook did for much of the 2006 cycle.  Boyda is the one at risk in Kansas (and Kansas has changed a lot politically of late).

Overall, Cook shows a neutral race at the start and then moves very slowly towards the actual outcome.  In 2006 every time out of the box for two years there was a subtle (or in a few cases not so subtle) shift towardes the Democrats.  Expect that the Democrats will slowly stack towards "likely" before a few go off the chart.

25 & 29, Maffei & Massa, (cheap Media Markets) 2 seats for the price of one, there two are winnable especially now that the 29th is completely unified behind Massa with the withdrawl of wealthy David Nachbar.

The Cook Report shows Ciro Rodriguez in TX-23 as a district that is R +4. That figure must be for the old TX-23 BEFORE the court ordered redistricting last year, and Ciro's subsequent defeat of the (R) incumbent Bonilla. When the court moved more Hispanics into the district to remedy the DeLay team's violation of the Voting Rights Act, and moved four Anglo (R) counties out of it, those new Hispanic voters tilted the new district much more Democratic.

That doesn't mean Ciro is out of the woods. And he was badly burned by the experience of losing a primary to DINO Henry Cuellar, "Bush's favorite House Democrat," after Ciro voted against the Iraq War Authorization. Already one or two Hispanic Repubs are gearing up to challenge Ciro, who still carries the rep of a two-time loser (two primaries before the most recent win) and a rep as a poor campaign organizer and fundraiser.

But I think that when the dust settles next year, our man Ciro will be reelected and back on his way to long service and high seniority.

There's been some solid criticism of the Partisan Voting Index. Because it is based on the past two Presidential elections ONLY, it can easily be distorted by Presidential-only factors, like foreign policy issues. Our manfrommiddletown argues that a better index would be compiled from downstate races like SOS, Treasurer, Land Commissioner, whathaveyou, where typically the voters don't know the names of the candidates and don't care. They vote for those offices by the party alone.

In Texas, the PVI is distorted in favor of two-time favorite son George W. Bush. It's a rule of thumb IIRC that when a homestate candidate is at the head of the ticket, the party gets an extra 2% or 3% of the vote in that state. Hometown pride and all that. And having a Veep from the homestate gets about 1% too. Since arguably BOTH Bush and Cheney were from Texas, arguably the hometown factor distorted the results in favor of the Repubs. So in Texas, the PVI could be off by 2% to 4%.

Subtract that error from the PVI and a lot of Texas districts start to look more competitive. So maybe Nick Lampson can hold on to the old Tom DeLay seat after all. And we can surely challenge in other districts, like TX-10.

Back in the spring of 2004, after Ciro Rodriguez had voted against the Iraq War Authorization, he got primaried. Henry Cuellar, "Bush's favorite House Democrat" and the ultimate DINO, took the nomination by 58 votes in a dirty count. Of course, Cuellar was helped by Tom DeLay's mid-decade redistricting, which drew new lines for TX-28 that were very unfriendly to Ciro.

In December 2006, Ciro made a comeback when he won the runoff in a special election in Henry Bonilla's district TX-23, after it had been redrawn to remedy the violation of the Voting Rights Act and it took in Ciro's Southside San Antonio home.

Meanwhile the district Ciro used to represent, where Bush-loving Cuellar still holds the seat, was also redrawn.

TX-28 now includes a large number of voters from "the Valley" -- a densely populated area where the Lower Rio Grande heads into the Gulf of Mexico.

The district used to be dominated by voters in Laredo, Cuellar's base. In past races, he has carried his home county with, like, 80% of the votes. That's a base!

But now there's another couple of adjoining counties that might give 80% of their votes to their own Valley favorite son or daughter. That would make a tight race in the Democratic primary for this majority Hispanic district.

If a candidate emerges to go against Cuellar next March, the netroots should support the challenger. But be prepared for a hard and costly fight. Cuellar is a very smart politician, and as a loyal Repub supporter, money is no object in his campaigns.

Chris Carney is going to be a one term Rep.  He won't get any netroots backing this time and the DSCC better not spend much money defending his seat.  It can be better spent elsewhere.

Cook has this as a likely Republican retain but the Dems have a great shot with popular former Mayor of Kansas City, Kay Barnes, running.  The district includes all of northwest Missouri but also the northern suburbs of Kansas City where Kay lives and remains very popular.  If she runs a good race, this will be a surprise pick-up.  The DCCC is high on her and this race so, for that reason alone, there is pause.  With some encouragement, she might run a truly populist and progressive race, one that could win.