Senate 2008 Guru's Week in the Senate Races

According to a CNN exit poll following the 2006 election, respondents more frequently cited "corruption and ethics in government" as extremely important to their vote than any other issue, including Iraq even.  While Iraq will unquestionably loom as a top issue, if not the top issue, in 2008, rest assured that the Republican "Culture of Corruption" also remains alive and well as we approach Election Day 2008.  Of course, we have Pete Domenici's role in the Attorney Purge scandal, David Vitter's chronic affection for prostitutes, and Lisa Murkowski's sweetheart land deal highlighting Senate Republicans' pliable relationship with ethical behavior.  Complementing all of this is how quickly Senate Republicans put partisanship ahead of convictions like "defense of the rule of law" when circling the wagons to look out for their own.

Perhaps the most spectacular flouting of ethical standards to come to a head during the 2008 election cycle thus far has been appearance-of-impropriety maven Ted Stevens' myriad wheelings and dealings.  Where to begin?  Following controversy over the corrupt VECO Corporation's inexplicable handling of the renovations to Ted Stevens' home, the FBI and IRS raided Stevens' home last Monday.  While the FBI and IRS are investigating potential impropriety surrounding Stevens' RenovationGate and other dealings with VECO, it turns out that the FBI and Department of the Interior are investigating earmarks pushed through by Stevens and their subsequent money trails.  As a result, calls have been made for Stevens to relinquish his committee assignments until the conclusion of all investigations.  The whole affair has made the already crotchety Stevens even more testy, as he lashed out at CNN reporter Dana Bash when she had the audacity to question Stevens about the numerous investigations.

But wait, it gets even more sordid.  It turns out that Stevens' personal bookkeeper is actually a Senate staffer making $150,000 annually but apparently performing no official Senate duties.  Since the bookkeeper did not report any income above her Senate salary, and since Stevens did not list her personal bookkeeping services as a gift on his financial disclosure forms, either or both could be in violation of federal law.  Of course, it wouldn't be a Republican scandal without a Republican colleague making apologies.  Cue Idaho Senator Larry Craig comparing the FBI to - I'm not joking - the Gestapo for having the unmitigated gall to investigate Stevens' dealings.  Everything going on with Stevens may seem like a lot because, well, it is a lot.  I have to imagine that the clock is ticking and, eventually, the FBI, the IRS, the Department of the Interior or the Senate Ethics Committee will bring the hammer down on Stevens.  (A major kudos to Talking Points Memo who has been absolutely dogged in covering this unraveling story, and who offers a terrific recap video of the web of corruption in which Alaska's Republican Congressional delegation finds itself.)

It turns out that a Republican doesn't need to be an incumbent Senator to join the appearance-of-impropriety club.  Earlier this week, it came out that conservative former Rep. and current Senate candidate from Colorado "Backwards" Bob Schaffer failed to disclose his involvement with the owner of a for-profit education company who contributed to Schaffer's Senate campaign after Schaffer cast the deciding vote on the Colorado state Board of Education to grant contracts to his company.  While I have yet to see word of Schaffer returning the questionable contributions or of any formal investigation to determine if there was a quid-pro-quo, this looks pretty bad for Schaffer and it plays right into the Republican "Culture of Corruption" theme.

Beyond the "Culture of Corruption," there are still many issues that will contribute to how the Senate races across the country in 2008 will be shaped.  This week, two of the Senate's most notable votes were on ethics reform legislation (I guess not too far removed from the "Culture of Corruption" theme) and SCHIP reauthorization, to make sure that sick children receive health care.  Senators up for re-election in 2008 who voted against the ethics reform legislation were Thad Cochran of Mississippi, John Cornyn of Texas, Larry Craig of Idaho, Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, and Jim Inhofe of Oklahoma.  Senators up for re-election in 2008 who voted against ensuring that sick children receive health care include all five Senators who voted against the ethics bill, as well as John Barrasso of Wyoming, Saxby Chambliss of Georgia, Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina, Mike Enzi of Wyoming, Chuck Hagel of Nebraska, Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, and Jeff Sessions of Alabama.  Opposing ethical standards for elected officials and health care for sick children... y'know, some political ads just write themselves.

Also, earlier this week, Survey USA came out with new Senator approval ratings for July.  The big stories were that Democrats remained stable while Republicans like Norm Coleman and Mitch McConnell saw their worst approval ratings ever.  Further buoying expectations for Democratic-favoring results on Election Day 2008 is the recent Democracy Corps poll finding that "across seven Republican-held U.S. Senate seats, the named U.S. Senators had a vote to re-elect of only 37% and were garnering only 44% of the vote against a generic challenger."  Meanwhile, The Hill sees a Senate Republican Caucus beat up over scandals and fractured over legislative differences, but hoping they can re-united in the Fall over increasing tax cuts for the rich and cutting spending on programs for working-class Americans. A heartwarming tale, really.

Here are other top stories on Senate races from across the country:

Oklahoma: Dynamic State Senator Andrew Rice has filed to run for Senate in 2008 to depose Jim "In Denial" Inhofe.  Do read more about Rice's extraordinary background.  The Oklahoma conservative establishment must be concerned about Rice's candidacy to be spewing pap like this.  Nobody argues that states like Oklahoma and Idaho are "red" states and that Senate races in these states are uphill battles.  But candidates like Rice and former Congressman Larry LaRocco provide Democrats with real opportunities to expand the playing field and force Republicans to play even more defense than they expected.  Remember, Oklahoma and Idaho are not the most expensive states to run campaigns in but they also run the risk of being overlooked due to higher profile Senate races in other states, so every dollar you contribute will truly have maximum bang for the buck.  Consider yourself urged to contribute early to Andrew Rice's campaign and Larry LaRocco's campaign - it will give the NRSC major headaches, and isn't that thanks enough?

Oregon: Oregon state House Speaker Jeff Merkley officially entered the 2008 Senate race and put up his Senate campaign website with a message not shy about decrying the wrong direction in which George W. Bush and Gordon Smith are leading Oregonians.  Despite the throngs of positive press Speaker Merkley was greeted with upon his entry into the race, conservatives wasted no time trying to mislead voters regarding Speaker Merkley's record on taxes.  Wait until voters hear the truth that Speaker Merkley worked with Governor Ted Kulongoski to shepherd through numerous tax breaks aimed at helping working-class families, veterans, farmers, fishermen, truckers, and many others.  Meanwhile, Republican Gordon Smith's approval remains under 50%.  This could be due, in part, to Smith's efforts contributing to the decimation of fishing businesses in Oregon.  Further, while Smith's economic policies promise to create jobs, in reality they tend to benefit the companies that are laying off workers.  After all, Gordon Smith is not a "moderate."  Gordon Smith is a "conservative."  Even Gordon Smith says so.

Minnesota: Back in February, just as Al Franken and Mike Ciresi were entering the Senate race, a Survey USA poll put both over twenty points behind Norm Coleman.  Well, Survey USA now has the gap down to single digits for both, with both holding Coleman under 50%.  Don't forget that Coleman is amid his worst approval rating ever.  Add on that military veteran Joe Repya, though slowed a little by rotator cuff surgery, is getting serious about a primary challenge to Coleman: "Repya said he has talked to potential members of a financial team and is seeking out a possible campaign manager."  That (and Al Franken outraising him in Q2) could be why Norm Coleman is hurrying to suckle at the fundraising teat of George W. Bush (mark your calendar for August 21!).

Virginia: While the source is Bob "Count Chocula" Novak, word is that top Virginia Republicans are expecting both a John Warner retirement and a Mark Warner election in the 2008 Senate race, as well as a Republican primary between Rep. Tom Davis and a more conservative alternative.  That sounds good to me.

New Hampshire: Sources suggest that the likelihood of popular Governor Jeanne Shaheen entering the 2008 Senate race stands at 70%, though that may depend on who/when you ask.  Meanwhile, Shaheen's delay in making a decision about the race may lead other Democratic candidates who had previously suggested that they'd stand aside for her to continue campaigning regardless of Shaheen's entry.

Maine: While Susan Collins supports Bush's tax cuts for the richest Americans, Tom Allen supports tax cuts for the middle class.  As Allen says, "Our economic policies should reflect our values."  I like it when Democrats relate progressive policies that actually help people to the big "V" word, "values."

For daily news and updates on the U.S. Senate races around the country in 2008, check out Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.



Display:


Minnesota (none / 0)

In case you think Minnesotans are just generally pissed off at all their representatives in Congress, compare Coleman's 43%/48% approval/disapproval rating with freshman Democrat Amy Klobuchar's 61%/31% approval/disapproval rating.


Never separate the life you live from the words you speak. -Sen. Paul Wellstone (Minnesota)
by Max Fletcher on Mon Aug 06, 2007 at 03:14:48 AM EST

Re: Minnesota (none / 0)

Look at other states which have a split delegation

Iowa
Charles Grassley (R) 61-31
Tom Harkin (D)55-38

Missouri
Kit Bond(R) 55%-34%
Clair McCaskill (D) 48%-43%

New Mexico
Pete Domenici(R) 55%-41%
Jeff Bingaman(D) 60%-33%

Ohio
George Voinovich(R) 39-51
Sherrod Brown (D) 42-43

Oregon
Ron Wyden(D) 59-33
Gordon Smith(R) 48-43

Virginia
John Warner(R) 53-40
James Webb(D) 51-38

Minnesota and Oregon are progressive leaning states so the Democratic Senator is more popular than the Republican Senator.

Iowa and Missouri are conservative leaning states so the Republican Senator is more popular than the Democratic Senator.

In Ohio- The Republican Senator is suffering from the high unpopularity of the OHIO GOP

In New Mexico- The Republican Senator is involved in a scandal

In Virginia- both are respected statesman.


by nkpolitics on Mon Aug 06, 2007 at 08:32:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Minnesota (none / 0)

Yes, but nowhere is the gap in approval between the two sitting Senators larger than in Minnesota. That has got to worry Coleman heading into an election year. (The fact that Minnesota is trending Democrat shouldn't be too comforting, either.)


Never separate the life you live from the words you speak. -Sen. Paul Wellstone (Minnesota)
by Max Fletcher on Mon Aug 06, 2007 at 11:45:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Minnesota (none / 0)

wrong on IA.  IA ain't "conservative-leaning."  Dukakis carried it for chissakes.

Harkin is a far more in-your-face (and I like him for it) senator than Grassley, who does not make many waves.  Anyone like Harkin is going to have higher negatives.

And the ONLY reason why some of those freshman Ds are doing so poorly on the surface of it is because they still aren't known hardly at all to the average person in the state.


McCain is defining Obama, and Obama is neither defining himself, nor McCain. This is awful.
by jgarcia on Mon Aug 06, 2007 at 12:52:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Republican attacks on Dems (none / 0)

alway follow two lines:

- They raise taxes (on rich white people to help people, often minoritires)

- They care more about liberty than illusionary so called security (from the brown people of the world).

They sound so out of touch every time they use these attack lines yet it is all they have. I don't know anyone who is surprised or moved when a Rep attacks a Dem for being wrong on taxes or security. It is just tiresome and pathetic. It helps with the GOP base, but noone who is not already a winger cares.


The history of the left is a history of purists betraying the progressive movement so that they can feel good about their righteous selves.
by Populism2008 on Mon Aug 06, 2007 at 03:42:35 AM EST

Re: Senate 2008 Guru's Week in the Senate Races (none / 0)

I like that Craig of all people compared the FBI to the gestapo.  Of all the senators to say something this stupid, why not one who faces a tough reelection campaign in 2008?  

Mr. Craig,
We appreciate your gift of an Idaho senate seat for delivery in January 2009.  We will also look into whether this is tax deductible (we understand you like these things).  

Signed,
The Progressive Netroots and the working people everywhere


http://ibrokemyrightwing.blogspot.com
by fakes seizures on Mon Aug 06, 2007 at 10:41:41 AM EST

Re: Senate 2008 Guru's Week in the Senate Races (none / 0)

If Mark Warner enters the 2008 senate race..say hello to the next Democratic senator from Virginia.

Dems 2008 potential pickups (in order of most likely going blue)

1. Colorado (Open Seat)

  1. New Hampshire
  2. Virginia  (Warner being replaced by Warner)
  3. Minnesota
  4. Oregon
  5. Maine


by Djneedle83 on Mon Aug 06, 2007 at 12:11:23 PM EST

Corruption all the way down (none / 0)

And remember, in Virginia the 2008 elections are presaged by the 2007 local contests.

And Republican corruption goes all the way down to the local level. Here in Loudoun County the Republican Board of Supervisors is in bed with the developers. The fight for accountability starts local and goes all the way to the top.

If we want momentum in 2008, let's start with victories in 2007.


by Paradox13 on Mon Aug 06, 2007 at 12:27:35 PM EST

Re: Senate 2008 Guru's Week in the Senate Races (3.00 / 1)

It is shocking that we must deal with petty scandals that occur in our own government. This prevents us from dealing with real issues that should concern the world like Global Poverty. Every 3.6 seconds, another person dies of Starvation [Borgen Project] and what is our country doing to stop it? The United states is lagging seconds to last in the effort to fight poverty. We are the frontrunners in political scandal and drama, but lag behind in humanitarian efforts. It is of no question to me as to why we do not have respect from the rest of the world.


by Erica2007 on Mon Aug 06, 2007 at 12:28:53 PM EST

Prediction: (none / 0)

Domenici will NOT get through campaign season - if there's a credible Democrat who runs that gives him an actiual race - without making perhaps many slip-ups as a result of his age and condition.

This will be like a William Roth thing in NM.  Yeah, most of the voters will still like him (god knows why), but will conclude he's just too old and feeble.

The key for us to win NM, is you can't win if you don't play.  We need a major, credible Dem to come forward and run against him.  Hard.


McCain is defining Obama, and Obama is neither defining himself, nor McCain. This is awful.
by jgarcia on Mon Aug 06, 2007 at 12:55:26 PM EST

Re: Prediction: (none / 0)

You have any candidates?  So far most of the "Could be" challengers seem to be opting out, or not speaking up.  


by JeremiahTheMessiah on Mon Aug 06, 2007 at 01:00:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

therein lies the big problem (none / 0)

doesn't seem like anyone in New Mexico WANTS this thing.

To think how Bill Richardson could give us a senate seat, but he's busy getting 5% in the pres polls.


McCain is defining Obama, and Obama is neither defining himself, nor McCain. This is awful.
by jgarcia on Mon Aug 06, 2007 at 01:05:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: therein lies the big problem (none / 0)

Wasn't there talk of Rep. Udall (no, the other one) going for Domenici' seat?


by Bromius on Mon Aug 06, 2007 at 02:59:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: therein lies the big problem (none / 0)

There was "talk" in the sense of, "We hope Tom Udall runs for the seat". Not much beyond that, except Udall saying early on in the cycle that he wouldn't challenge Domenici.


by Unabridged on Mon Aug 06, 2007 at 04:00:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Oregon (3.00 / 1)

What, no mention of Steve Novick?  He's not as well known (especially outside Oregon) as the state Speaker, but he's a hard working achiever and much more progressive - check it out:
http://www.novickforsenate.org/

by Bob in AZ on Mon Aug 06, 2007 at 01:29:47 PM EST

Re: Oregon (none / 0)

uhm no.

Merckley is the Speaker. Novick is not.

However I do encourage people to check out both candidates, they both seem very credible and could win the general. Good luck to both campaigns.


by Trowaman on Mon Aug 06, 2007 at 05:38:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oregon (none / 0)

If Novick were a wealthy trial lawyer ala John Edwards - he'd probally get DSCC support due to his ability to self finance.

Merkley is getting DSCC support due to the fact he is a top Democrat in the Oregon State legislature- He has endorsements from local elected officials in Portland and Salem.


by nkpolitics on Mon Aug 06, 2007 at 10:03:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Senate 2008 Guru's Week in the Senate Races (none / 0)


As a group voters do ignore quite a bit of corruption as long as the person strikes them as pushing for all the things that strike them as necessary.  'Ethics and corruption' is voterspeak for incumbents who have run out of usefulness in their eyes.

My sense is that Democrats should win all four of the Republican seats in present Blue States in '08, and probably the open seats in Colorado and Virginia as well in squeakers.  (Taking out incumbent Senators is generally a 51-49 business.)  On our side Tim Johnson and Mary Landrieu seem to have Republican opponents that are close to sufficiently formidable to win- but not quite.

Domenici in New Mexico is the one Republican Senator who really should be on his way out, but he's just not falling under 50% approval.  The single larger issue I can think of to warrant that positive support is illegal immigration.   As state and local reasons for support go, the standard to which he is held doesn't seem very high.  Perhaps because it's a small state and/or the pork he brings, and the disrepute of New Mexico Democrats.


by killjoy on Mon Aug 06, 2007 at 05:14:11 PM EST


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