Between yesterday's discussion of the potential for Chris Dodd's IAFF announcement to move him up in the polls and today's (see Bowers's Open Left post and BTD's diary) regarding whether Richardson's upward mobility in Iowa and New Hampshire is due to his call for 'no residual troops' in Iraq, I wondered just how fluid is the Democratic field?
By the look of many recent comments I've read, there seems to be the sense that the top three are pretty locked in place. There's no way we'll see the same dramatic shift that occured four years ago, people argue. The top contenders back then had soft support, this year's campaign has lasted longer and gotten more coverage than ever before. Maybe so. But others beg to differ.
Chris Bowers points us to an analysis by Mark Blumenthal at Pollster of the mid-August Michigan poll that showed Gore would lead in the state if he's offered as an option in a secondary question. In other words, after gauging support for the announced candidates, respondents were given the opportunity to switch their choice to Gore. When Gore was given as an option, Clinton went from 46% to 32%, Obama went from 26% to 10% and Edwards went from 16% to 8%, all of which gave Gore 36% support in the poll. Now while the methodology was out of the ordinary, Blumenthal's conclusion was clear:
But the fact that the simple addition of Gore's name to the list of choices shakes up current preferences to this degree tells us that the vote preferences we are watching are still tentative, and the Democratic race is still a long way from over.
In other words, as Bowers says, voters' support for the candidates, while holding steady, is still fairly soft. Now granted, a Michigan poll may not be the best measure since the candidates aren't spending much time there. What about in Iowa and New Hampshire? Well, the dean of Iowa's conventional political wisdom, David Yepsen sees an opening for an insurgent candidate there because of key vulnerabilities among the top three:
Edwards' populism sounds increasingly angry, and voters don't elect angry people to the presidency. Edwards has seen a clear lead in Iowa shrink to a statistical tie with Clinton and Obama.Also, many Iowa Democrats are worried about Clinton's electability. She has moved up in Iowa surveys as she debates well and addresses the issue, but the question hasn't gone away and remains her single biggest impediment to the nomination.
Obama is vexed by questions about his lack of experience. He also has upset some Democratic constituency groups by blowing off a number of Iowa events and debates because he doesn't want to be seen with his rivals.
And with celebrity candidates like Clinton and Obama come big crowds and big security operations that make it hard for an activist, or a local reporter, to pose a question.
Yepsen is particularly bullish on Richardson's chances noting that his stated goal of a top three finish is the minimum he'd need to keep fighting but concedes it won't be easy. But is there an opening? Yeah.
As for the top three, Marc Ambinder has an interesting analysis:
John Edwards and Hillary Clinton have a mutual interest in seeing each other's candidacy prosper over the next four months.Edwards wants Clinton's national poll ratings to rise, rise, rise. That way, if/when he beats her in Iowa, he will have slain a giant. Also, the thinking in Edwards land is that if Clinton rises, the press will conclude that Barack Obama is falling.
Clinton wants Edwards to keep his lead in Iowa and remain competitive nationally...Defeating Edwards in Iowa...could clinch the nomination for Clinton if and only if Edwards remains strong enough to be...beaten.
If a shake-up is on the horizon, it will take a significant event that gains enough news coverage to reach beyond the political junkies. Time will tell if yesterday's IAFF endorsement and its accompanying local events will be enough of a newsmaker for Dodd and if Richardson's persistent call for no residual troops against the backdrop of September's promised Iraq debate will do the trick for him. Certainly right now, those are the issues they're hanging their breakthrough hopes on.
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