Since Hillary Clinton v. Rudy Giuliani head-to-head match ups seem to be all the rage, I thought it was interesting that both Rasmussen and SurveyUSA released polls of how the two New Yorkers would fare against each other back home where voters know them best.
Survey USA (8/10-8/12) (via Pollster):
Hillary Clinton 59%
Rudy Giuliani 37%
Rasmussen (8/23):
Hillary Clinton 58%
Rudy Giuliani 33%
Other/Not sure 9%
These numbers actually track pretty closely with the election results from 2004 when Kerry defeated Bush in New York 58% to 41% but Rudy's not even reaching Bush 2004 levels in his own state is notable (read: fairly pathetic.) Looking just at the Rasmussen numbers, once the I Don't Knows shake out, Rudy would be well under 40% while Clinton would end up several points ahead of Kerry's level of support. Their respective favorability ratings bear this out.
Again from Rasmussen, favorable/unfavorable:
Hillary Clinton 63/35
Rudy Giuliani 47/50
Of course, Giuliani's not mayor anymore and Clinton is currently senator, and an extremely popular one at that.
But what's got to be even more devastating for Rudy vis a vis his support back home, ya know, where 9/11 actually happened, is the result when Rasmussen asked respondents whom they trust more on the issue of terrorism:
Which of NEW YORK'S PRESIDENTIAL HOPEFULS do you trust the most to handle the War on Terror?36% Giuliani
44% Clinton
19% Not sure
And this is a sample of voters that chose "War on Terror" as their number one issue (38%.)
The fact that Rudy attracts virtually the same exact level of support among all voters as he does among those that trust him on the "War on Terror" confirms what we've thought from the start -- terrorism really is all he has. Secondly, as Greg Sargent slyly observes, this result
would seem to make it tougher for Rudy to sustain his argument that he's the one who as GOP nominee would put reliably blue states -- such as his own -- in play.
In fact, looking at the most current statewide head-to-head match up polls around the country, Chris Bowers put together a handy electoral map of what a Clinton vs. Giuliani result would look like and the only state that went for Kerry in 2004 that he would manage to switch to red would be Connecticut. Clinton on the other hand would switch 15 Bush states to the Democratic column resulting in a rout of 335 - 203 electoral votes.
And she's supposedly the unelectable one...
|
|
|
Permalink :: 40 Comments :: Post a Comment
|
In order to post a comment, you must be logged in. If you have a member account, please log in to comment.
If not, you can make an account right here. It's quick and free.