Late Night / Early Morning Digest : Hillary Clinton Edition

IOWA :

For those interested , there are some important events happening in Iowa with regards to Hillary Clinton's campaign ,

Iowans for Hillary meetings scheduled
 DES MOINES -- County kickoff meetings, sponsored by Iowans for Hillary, to lay the groundwork for organizing Hillary Clinton's efforts on a precinct by precinct, neighbor to neighbor level, will be held at the following North Iowa locations.

The meetings will bring  Clinton's supporters and undecided caucus goers under one roof to learn more about the campaign and local organizing efforts.

Tuesday, Aug. 28:

-- 7 p.m. at the home of Joy Newcom, 436 South 7th St., Forest City. For more information call 641-424-3569.

Wednesday, Aug. 29:

-- 5 p.m. at the home of Ray and Verna Lee Morgan, 801 South Minnesota Ave., Algona. For more information call 515-576-5301.

Thursday, Aug. 30:

-- 5 p.m. at Godfather's Pizza, 805 Central Ave. West, Hampton. For more information call 641-424-3569.

-- 7 p.m. at the St. Ansgar High School Media Room, located in the school's library, 206 East 8th St., St. Ansgar. For more information call 641-424-3569.

FLORIDA :

LAKE BUENA VISTA , Palm Beach Florida

- Clinton paid a visits to the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers national convention, She spoke to a crowd of about 700 activists . Clinton won approval for saying she would push for such a bill, the Employee Free Choice Act, which passed the House this year but was blocked by Republicans in the Senate. There is a link to the coverage below:

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/politics/co ntent/state/epaper/2007/08/28/m2a_flapre z_0828.html

LOUISIANA :

- U.S. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton once again criticized President Bush and the Federal Emergency Management Agency for their response to Hurricane Katrina, re-emphasizing on Monday her plan for Gulf Coast recovery at a summit designed to mark what progress has been made two years after the storm.

Clinton said it remained "an American obligation" to rebuild the region, even as the second anniversary of Katrina arrives on Wednesday with swaths of the city vacant and bureaucracy choking federal and state assistance designed to help victims of the disaster. You can get full coverage at the link below.

http://www.2theadvocate.com/news/suburba n/9411926.html?index=1&c=y

Here is an interesting story you should read :

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/27/us/pol itics/27web-nagourney.html?_r=1&oref =slogin

On a lighter note , Two Arizona professors have have launched a new 2008 presidential campaign conversation-tracking  tool that they've (painfully) named Wonkosphere. It looks as if it could be an automated version of the National Journal's Hotline for blogs.

The site promises to provide some relief to political junkies by providing them with a quick summary of what the hottest buzz is among hundreds of politically-oriented blogs. It uses a proprietary text-analysis technology to sift through the mountains of words to weigh what blog authors are discussing, and is updated every four hours.

One trend that immediately strikes a first-time visitor is how the conversation online seems to reflect what's happening on television and off-line. For example, however much Elizabeth Edwards bashes the mainstream media and talks about using the Internet as an alternative medium, this Wonkosphere chart shows that for the past 24 hours New York senator Hillary Rodham Clinton and Illinois senator Barack Obama are still topmost on bloggers' minds.

Hillary is doing well on the internet too.

http://blog.wired.com/photos/uncategoriz ed/2007/08/27/wonkosphere_2.png

You can catch the site here :

http://blog.wired.com/27bstroke6/2007/08 /wonkosphere-tra.html

THE POLLS :

Here is a quick snapshot of all the head to head matchups we have now . I heard survey usa will try matchups for other dems in september.

SurveyUSA. 8/13. Registered voters. MoE 4.3%.

Alabama. 9 Electoral Votes. Bush won 2004 by 26%. (7/16 results)
Clinton 44 (39)

Giuliani 50 (54)

Clinton 47 (41)
Thompson 49 (55)

Clinton 48 (44)
Romney 46 (49)

Kentucky. 8 Electoral Votes. Bush won 2004 by 20%. (6/11 results)
Clinton 49 (44)

Giuliani 44 (47)

Clinton 51 (49)
Thompson 44 (45)

Clinton 53 (51)
Romney 41 (42)

Virginia. 13 Electoral Votes. Bush won 2004 by 8%. (6/11 results)
Clinton 49 (44)

Giuliani 46 (48)

Clinton 51 (50)
Thompson 42 (45)

Clinton 53 (51)
Romney 39 (40)

SurveyUSA polls, 8/10-12. Registered voters. MoE 4.4% (7/16 results)

Missouri. 11 Electoral votes. Bush won in 2004 by 7%. Clinton versus Giuliani, Thompson, and Romney.

Clinton (D) 46 (44)
Giuliani (R) 47 (48)

Clinton (D) 48 (46)
Thompson (R) 46 (49)

Clinton (D) 49 (50)
Romney (R) 43 (43)

New Mexico. 5 Electoral votes. Bush won in 2004 by 1%. Clinton versus Giuliani, Thompson, and Romney.

Clinton (D) 49 (48)
Giuliani (R) 43 (45)

Clinton (D) 52 (51)
Thompson (R) 40 (42)

Clinton (D) 53 (50)
Romney (R) 38 (41)

Ohio. 20 Electoral votes. Bush won in 2004 by 2%. Clinton versus Giuliani, Thompson, and Romney.

Clinton (D) 48 (52)
Giuliani (R) 45 (41)

Clinton (D) 50 (56)
Thompson (R) 43 (37)

Clinton (D) 51 (56)
Romney (R) 40 (36)

SurveyUSA. 8/10-12. Registered voters. MoE 4.4% (7/16 results)

California. 55 Electoral votes. Kerry won in 2004 by 9%. Clinton versus Giuliani, Thompson, and Romney.

Clinton (D) 56 (56)
Giuliani (R) 39 (36)

Clinton (D) 59 (60)
Thompson (R) 34 (33)

Clinton (D) 60 (59)
Romney (R) 32 (33)

Oregon. 7 Electoral votes. Kerry won in 2004 by 4%. Clinton versus Giuliani, Thompson, and Romney.

Clinton (D) 52 (48)
Giuliani (R) 42 (44)

Clinton (D) 53 (53)
Thompson (R) 41 (40)

Clinton (D) 57 (53)
Romney (R) 37 (37)

Washington. 11 Electoral votes. Kerry won in 2004 by 11%. Clinton versus Giuliani, Thompson, and Romney.

Clinton (D) 55 (50)
Giuliani (R) 40 (42)

Clinton (D) 57 (53)
Thompson (R) 38 (37)

Clinton (D) 57 (54)
Romney (R) 36 (35)



Display:


Nagourney (2.00 / 2)

Adam Nagourney had one of the few rational treatments of Karl Rove. I guarantee none of the top-tier Republican candidates want to run against Hillary Clinton. Ask Barack Obama and John Edwards how they are enjoying it. It's got to be frustrating as hell.

The Republicans can do the math on the women's vote demographics. And, the whole issue of going negative against Clinton is dicey. Everyone who has tried it has gotten burned. As her support among women hardens, going negative carries increasing risk. Ask the Washington Post about the response to their cleavage article...or poor John Edwards for making what he thought was a good-natured jab at her brightly colored jacket. Every female pundit in the country showed up on the Sunday talk shows wearing coral jackets.


by hwc on Tue Aug 28, 2007 at 02:01:05 AM EST

Re: Nagourney (2.00 / 2)

Yeah I share that view as well . She is going to bring in Arkansas and probably Florida , can't say that for others.

She is going to be tough to beat.


this country it belongs to folks like me and you ,so let the voice of freedom sing out through this land this is our country
by lori on Tue Aug 28, 2007 at 02:06:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nagourney (2.00 / 1)

I enjoy catching the Fox News roundtable discussions every so often to get the "official" Republican punditry talking points.

Tonight they talked about the Clinton "what if something happens with terrorism before the election" flap.

The Weekly Standards' Fred Barnes said Clinton was right both counts. Everyone in politics knows that the Republicans get a perception boost when threat levels and increase and everyone knows that Clinton is the Democrats strongest candidate to combat it because she's positioned herself so well on national security.

The despised Charles Krautheimer said Obama was talking nonsense saying that you can't politicize terrorism. Krautheimer asked how terrorism could possible NOT be a topic for political discussion since it's the number one issue in the election?

There's this weird dynamic going on. The Democratic netroots and the Republican wingnut equivalents are trying to paint Clinton as the spawn of the devil. Everyone else either likes her or pays grudging respect to candidate who is playing the game at a very high level. It's as if both the Democratic and Republican primaries are in orbit around Clinton. She's the 800 pound gorilla on the political scene right now.

--------

PS: I see Bill Clinton has a new book hitting the newsstands next week. I bet it outsells Carl Bernstein's book!


by hwc on Tue Aug 28, 2007 at 02:22:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Nice work, Lori. (none / 0)

l'll recommend.  As you may know, I like the Roundup model as an effective way to promote a candidate.  Good work.


by TomP on Tue Aug 28, 2007 at 06:08:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nagourney (none / 0)

I read some article that said Hillary had an 85 percent favorable rating among democrats- more than the others- and that it is going to be very risky of Obama and Edwards to attack someone who is viewed so favorably by their own party.


NY TIMES ENDORSEMENT: "Mrs. Clinton is more qualified, right now, to be president.... She would be a strong commander in chief."
by reasonwarrior on Tue Aug 28, 2007 at 05:17:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nagourney (none / 0)

she has higher favorables and higher "very favorables" than the all the democrats running (among democrats)


Rise, Hillary, Rise
by sepulvedaj3 on Tue Aug 28, 2007 at 11:33:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Late Night Digest : Hillary Clinton Edition (none / 0)

Did you catch the article in the NY Post about the letter writer to the DM Register?


 He admitted that he had applied for a job with the same campaign in April but was turned down.

Henson said volunteers were in tears, "probably from the abuse they were taking" from higher-ups.

Uh-huh.

I would have thought that desmoinesdem would have posted a follow-up since she was so concerned, but I didn't see it today.


by dblhelix on Tue Aug 28, 2007 at 02:21:08 AM EST

Re: Late Night Digest : Hillary Clinton Edition (none / 0)

Interesting omission .

There are 1 or 2 bloggers on this site working as volunteers for Hillary in Iowa and they both have enjoyed the experience . I won't put much stock in it.


this country it belongs to folks like me and you ,so let the voice of freedom sing out through this land this is our country
by lori on Tue Aug 28, 2007 at 02:35:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Late Night Digest : Hillary Clinton Edition (none / 0)

Never did; don't even think I commented in the diary. This is for the benefit of all of those concerned folks.

I know people at HQ, and aside from the daily beatings, they seem very happy.


by dblhelix on Tue Aug 28, 2007 at 02:45:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Late Night Digest : Hillary Clinton Edition (none / 0)

You would think if you were truly a " Die Hard " Supporter of HIllary Clinton as he claims in the article he would have been able to seperate the candidate from the campaign , if it truly happened the way he presented it.


this country it belongs to folks like me and you ,so let the voice of freedom sing out through this land this is our country
by lori on Tue Aug 28, 2007 at 03:09:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Late Night Digest : Hillary Clinton Edition (none / 0)

Wow- to whomever they are, I want to thank them for supporting Hillary in Iowa- I appreciate their efforts a thousand times over.


NY TIMES ENDORSEMENT: "Mrs. Clinton is more qualified, right now, to be president.... She would be a strong commander in chief."
by reasonwarrior on Tue Aug 28, 2007 at 05:29:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Late Night Digest : Hillary Clinton Edition (none / 0)

It makes one wonder if the Obama campaign offered him a paid position....

...to write letters to the Des Moines Register!


by hwc on Tue Aug 28, 2007 at 02:39:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Late Night Digest : Hillary Clinton Edition (none / 0)

Yeah its surprising how the so called " Die hard " supporter switched side so easily and then writes a letter to discredit the campaign.

It might happen but it just doesn't feel right. I am not buying it , nonetheless.


this country it belongs to folks like me and you ,so let the voice of freedom sing out through this land this is our country
by lori on Tue Aug 28, 2007 at 02:44:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Late Night Digest : Hillary Clinton Edition (none / 0)

while lying on his back ...


by dblhelix on Tue Aug 28, 2007 at 02:46:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Late Night Digest : Hillary Clinton Edition (none / 0)

Yeah the whole story just doesn't hold together . I really wish Des moine register will poll Iowa , its been months since they polled , I thought before the abc debate or at least after they will come out with a poll . Thats the only credible outfit for Iowa I know.

They take forever to come out with a poll.

Are there any other ones out there?


this country it belongs to folks like me and you ,so let the voice of freedom sing out through this land this is our country
by lori on Tue Aug 28, 2007 at 02:50:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Late Night Digest : Hillary Clinton Edition (none / 0)

Honestly, I think IA polls are irrelevant, no matter who does them.

Let's say you're a very good pollster, and you're focusing on one precinct. You predict turnout of 50 based on past history. Your likely caucus participants tell you:

Edwards 16
Hillary 15
Obama 10
------------
Richardson 6
Dodd 3

Only the top 3 are viable, and Richardson/Dodd supporters will have to go with their 2nd choices.  The polls don't capture this horse trading.

Second, the pollsters can only take a wild stab at predicting increased turnout due to younger voters and new or non-regular women voters at this point. There are also factors that might cluster them around specific precincts that need to be taken into account.


by dblhelix on Tue Aug 28, 2007 at 03:18:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Late Night Digest : Hillary Clinton Edition (none / 0)

I think Iowa will stay close between Clinton and Edwards until the week of the caucuses when it will break hard for Clinton.

The only thing that could change that dynamic would be if Edwards just collapses nationally.

I don't know what is going on with Obama in Iowa. Skipping today's Lance Armstrong forum (2000 Iowans) and September's AARP forum (1000 Iowans) strongly suggests that he's written off Iowa.


by hwc on Tue Aug 28, 2007 at 03:23:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Late Night Digest : Hillary Clinton Edition (none / 0)

I don't think he's written off Iowa, not at all.

I think his focus is on building a GOTV structure to get younger voters to caucus. This means interacting w/them as well as fundraising for the operation.

He's banking on not losing his core IA support by skipping out on these forums/panels.


by dblhelix on Tue Aug 28, 2007 at 03:50:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Late Night Digest : Hillary Clinton Edition (none / 0)

Are you aware that the same outfit who polled for the recent Washingtonpost/ABC Iowa poll are the one who are in charge of polling for the Des Moine Register?


by JaeHood on Tue Aug 28, 2007 at 03:47:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Late Night Digest : Hillary Clinton Edition (none / 0)

Ann Selzer consulted on the polling project. Actual sampling, collection etc was performed by a PA company for the WashPost/ABC.

It'd be interesting to know what "consulting" means -- could just be sharing voter lists, which is otherwise too expensive for pollsters established outside of IA. No way of knowing for sure w/o more details,


by dblhelix on Tue Aug 28, 2007 at 04:08:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Thanks! (2.00 / 1)

First of all, thanks for the Great Info above.  Nagourney is clearly not on our side, the only tactic being employed by both Rove and Nagourney is to provide a distraction to us away from the things that matter.  Clinton's Record.  Her Policies, Etc.

I don't know if any of you Clinton Supporters have noticed of late, but over at DailyKos.com a contingent of Bloggers are working overtime to try to convince people to not vote for Clinton if she wins the Nomination.

Part of it might be a game.  Just a way for haters to push the "Divisive" meme, all the while saying the most Divisive things they, themselves, can imagine.  And then blaming Clinton for what they say.  Odd.  I know.

And, it turns out, some Obama and Edwards supporters have started supporting these efforts even though they claim that they will still vote for Clinton if she wins the Nomination, these Edwards and Obama Supporters are Recommending these Diaries.

So it's clear to me they know it helps their candidate, and it's clear to me that they now realize that they will need this kind of unholy alliance if they are to have a chance.

My question is this.  At what point does a Clinton Supporter have to consider that their loyalty (I would definitely vote for Obama or Edwards in the General Election, and not only would I never Recommend a Diary by someone saying they won't vote for Edwards or Obama in the General Election, I would condemn their point of view.  Enthusiastically.) to the Democratic Party is not reciprocated?

If you're not sure what I'm talking about, check this out:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/8/26/ 22350/1976

I think we see that crap all the time.  But what we don't see is it being so highly Recommended.  This is an attack they're pushing now.

I'm at a point right now where if this keeps up, and if I think that Obama and Edwards advocates used disloyalty to their advantage, then my own morale should Edwards or Obama win the Nomination will be so degraded, I would seriously consider not voting for them in the General Election.


by Edgar08 on Tue Aug 28, 2007 at 04:36:37 AM EST

Re: Thanks! (none / 0)

Personally, I like Obama now again.  I think he is sincere just misguided in his campaign.  I wouldn't blame him for some of his horrid supporters.  Edwards, I don't even have to consider, he has no chance at the nomination.  Honestly, I'd only give Obama a 5 percent chance to win it now, but a 5 percent chance is still a chance.  He should have tried for VP, he would have benefited from someone like Hillary to take him under her wing and teach him to be prepared, stay focused, map and plan things out, how to watch everything you say, and idealism without realism is a losing strategy.


NY TIMES ENDORSEMENT: "Mrs. Clinton is more qualified, right now, to be president.... She would be a strong commander in chief."
by reasonwarrior on Tue Aug 28, 2007 at 05:25:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I would join you.. (2.00 / 1)

if this stupdity continues by the dailykooks, I would not vote FOR either or at least stay out completely.


by pate on Tue Aug 28, 2007 at 10:49:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I would join you.. (none / 0)

Those guys on Kos are incredible , I am not going to bother myself too much with that site.

I saw the diary , it seems they are seeing the writing on the wall and some have decided to act like the bunch of kids they are.

If I don't get my way I won't vote.


this country it belongs to folks like me and you ,so let the voice of freedom sing out through this land this is our country
by lori on Tue Aug 28, 2007 at 10:58:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I would join you.. (none / 0)

The people supporting Clinton should just redouble our efforts in the primary and general so she is victorious regardless of whoever.

But I will definitely cast my vote for whoever wins the nomination.

I have issues with the other 2 candidates but I'll still cast my vote for them.

Obama - His foreign policy stance is a worry. But I sincerely doubt he will meet dictators without precondition , I think he just got stuck with that line and had to roll with the punches , sort of like I turn my weakness into strength. Overall I actually think He'll govern more like Clinton will.

EDwards - I have serious issues with his rhetoric , I am far from a liberal and he speaks for the crowd at daily kos , but I think he'' have to move in a General , but if He doesn't he is one that I'll have serious issues voting for because that will mean I am more in line with Guiliani's position's than him. But I'll still vote for Edwards.  


this country it belongs to folks like me and you ,so let the voice of freedom sing out through this land this is our country
by lori on Tue Aug 28, 2007 at 11:06:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Thanks! (none / 0)

Edgar08:
Are these regular posters to DKos?  The Hillary-haters?  Because some people, like me, are not sold on her positions.  We aren't Hillary-haters.  I'd vote for her in the general election.  She is not my first choice in the primary(if it still matters by the time it gets to where I live).  Take health care.  How does she explain her comments about waiting till her 2nd term?  We all know what a comment like that means.  The other big question mark is: how can we trust her judgment?  Yeah, you might say the AUMF is a like beating a dead horse, but plenty of people knew at the time that the Decider was up to no good.  Why didn't she read the NIE(or whatever military/intelligence report a lot of Senators didn't bother to read during the runup to the war)?
Jim Webb - Born Fighting
by Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle on Tue Aug 28, 2007 at 11:13:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Thanks! (none / 0)

How does she explain her comments about waiting till her 2nd term?  We all know what a comment like that means.

What she means is that she's not just throwing empty campaign promises against the wall. She's serious.

Obviously, any serious health care reform proposal passed by Congress and signed into law will be phased in over a number of years.

I know that voters would like to believe that the President can just twitch her nose and make major changes instantly like Samantha of Bewitched. But, that's not the way our government works, especially on something that requires major budgetary changes. For example, the other candidates say that they will use expiration of the Bush tax cuts to pay for health care, but those tax cuts don't expire until 2011 or 2012. The candidates who are saying that full universal health care will be completely implemented within four years are simply lying (or as it is politely stated, "pandering".)


by hwc on Tue Aug 28, 2007 at 11:28:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Thanks! (none / 0)

I think voters know that nothing will happen overnight.  I also know that some of us are wise enough to know that starting something in your second term will result in very little getting done.  When does a President get the most done?  The first few years in office.  That's when they are at their peak.  What changes, if any, will she try to make in her first term?  That's what I want to know.


Jim Webb - Born Fighting
by Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle on Tue Aug 28, 2007 at 01:00:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Thanks! (none / 0)

Have you read any of the many insider books about the Bush/Cheney administration's selling of the Iraq war? If you have, you will know that the NIE was written as a sales brochure. It was cooked. The many strong opposing opinions from the intelligence community (on key issues like the aluminum tubes and the yellow cake) were either omitted entirely, or buried in obtuse qualifying footnotes. Read Suskind's "The One Percent Solution" for a full explanation of the aluminum tube caper. The administration knowingly left out the real story from the NIE and all CIA documents.


by hwc on Tue Aug 28, 2007 at 11:32:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Thanks! (none / 0)

Even though the books were cooked, as you say, there was still plenty of evidence that BushCo wasn't being straight up.  Heck, even people as different as Gore and Webb thought Iraq was a mistake beforehand.  I just don't think a lot of Senators gave a lot of thought to what going to war with Iraq(and the possible aftermath) meant.  In voting for war, did they think Bush would handle the post-Saddam period well?  Did these people not know The Decider's history?  And the history of Iraq?


Jim Webb - Born Fighting
by Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle on Tue Aug 28, 2007 at 01:06:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Thanks! (none / 0)

I am willing to make you a bet that if Edwards was elected half of what he is saying now , he won't get done in his first year maybe even at all.

You have to look at the political reality of things. Edwards is advocating an uncompromising position and if he is going to govern like his rhetoric now , he wont pass his so called " uhc " probably throughout his term.


this country it belongs to folks like me and you ,so let the voice of freedom sing out through this land this is our country
by lori on Tue Aug 28, 2007 at 11:34:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Bill and Hillary Clinton (none / 0)

The negative attacks by Obama and Edwards and the netroots on both Hillary Clinton and President Bill Clinton only serve to undermine the Democratic chances in the general election. As we all should have learned from 2000, running against Bill Clinton is a big mistake.

The difference, this time, is that Bill Clinton is not going to just sit by and allow the swiftboating of his record or his popularity. He is releasing a major new book next week. From the sounds of it, a very positive book with themes of hope, perhaps similar to the themes he touched on in is extraordinary call to service in his Harvard speech:

http://video2.harvard.edu:8080/ramgen/pl uto/ClassDay2007Archive.rm

Clinton starts about 1 hour 30 minutes into the video.

I think we will see a very visible Bill Clinton during his book tour. Obama, Edwards, and the netroots are probably going to see a masterclass in political pushback from a former President with Democratic Party approval ratings near 90%.


by hwc on Tue Aug 28, 2007 at 11:01:39 AM EST

Re: Late Night / Early Morning Digest : Hillary C (none / 0)

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