Women will deliver general election to Hillary

'People just don't like her', 'She is just too polarized', 'She can't be elected' are standard lines spouted by clueless DC pundits and blogs (liberal and right wing) to attack Hillary's electability. Let's take a look at the Hillary Clinton's likability ratings in today's NBC/WSJ poll.


Favorable (Unfavorable)
March: 39%:43%
June:  42%:42%
July:  44: 39%

Hillary Clinton has improved her likebility ratings from a 4-point deficit to a 5-point surplus over the past four months, a substantial 9 points swing.

Politics has an excellent summary of women voters' sentimental shift to Hillary Clinton over the past few months. It has some good statistics to back up the 'very encouraging trend towards Hillary...'


All year long, Republicans looking for reassurance about their prospects for 2008 have had a bright spot. Despite the loss of Congress, despite an unpopular war in Iraq, despite a president with plummeting approval ratings, the GOP front-runner continually beat the Democratic front-runner in polls testing a hypothetical general election contest.

But now, Republicans have one more thing to be depressed about. A couple of recent polls show Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) beating former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) if they are their party's nominees 15 months from now, according to surveys by the Gallup Organization, The Wall Street Journal/NBC News and Zogby International. Perhaps more noteworthy is the reason why: a migration of ideologically moderate white women into the Clinton camp.

The argument that Clinton could win the Democratic nomination but remain a long shot for winning the White House has rested heavily on two pillars: that Clinton is too polarizing and that Americans are not ready to elect a woman as president.

Both those pillars may be crumbling. While Clinton has long enjoyed an advantage among Democratic women, the latest surveys suggest she is drawing support from other women -- including those who in the past have tilted Republican and earlier in this election cycle were showing no particular enthusiasm for Clinton.


In a hypothetical race between Clinton and Giuliani posed in mid-May, for instance, the two split women evenly, with 45 percent, Zogby found, while Giuliani won the men's vote by 51 percent to 41 percent. By mid-July, Clinton had improved to 54 percent with women against Giuliani's 35 percent, even as the men's vote hardly shifted. This accounted for Clinton winning the overall vote in this matchup by 47 percent to 41 percent. A July Gallup vote echoed the trend.

The movement is even more eye-opening when narrowed specifically to moderate women -- a key voting bloc in recent elections and one Clinton's team is giving special attention.

Moderate women favored Clinton 49 percent to 41 percent in the May poll. Clinton now wins moderate women 62 percent to 28 percent over Giuliani in the Zogby poll. The margin of error, when isolating data to look at such small groups, is as high as 8 percent. But the gains are nonetheless statistically significant.

In part, Clinton's improvements are due to Giuliani's troubles. The GOP front-runner's lead has gradually diminished within the Republican electorate, dropping equally among men and women, for reasons that are not fully evident. Many political analysts have long believed that Giuliani would fade once conservatives focused more closely on his socially liberal positions on abortion and gay rights -- and once controversies in his personal life received more national exposure. While Giuliani has received some tough media scrutiny in recent months, Clinton has received considerable positive press due to strong performances in recent debates.

"Every time there is a debate, people say one thing about her: 'Yep, she's presidential,'" said Harvard public policy lecturer Elaine Kamarck, who served in Bill Clinton's administration. "That would be important to a lot of moderate women who would not automatically support a woman. She becomes increasingly credible as a president, and the other thing is the continued collapse of the Republican Party."

The first female candidate may be proving herself feasible with women, ironically, by projecting a more traditionally masculine political profile.

"She has been absolutely correct that she had to convince people she could be commander in chief, and that sometimes comes at the expense of warmth," Kamarck added. "That's the trade-off, but I think she's making the correct trade-off."

Neither Clinton nor Giuliani may, in the end, be their party's nominee. But the recent polling hints at something many supporters of Clinton's Democratic rivals say they doubt: her potential strength as a general election candidate.

Zogby's July 20 poll produced a near-reversal of the May 20 poll, which had Giuliani defeating Clinton 48 percent to 43 percent. Recent Gallup polling also shows her now defeating Giuliani, 50 percent to 46 percent, an improvement over past polls produced overwhelmingly by gains among women.

Wednesday's Journal/NBC News poll shows Clinton defeating Giuliani, as well, 47 percent to 41 percent. In March, it was the reverse: Giuliani led 47 percent to 42 percent over Clinton. Like in the Zogby and Gallup polls, the shift is among women. Giuliani won men by 47 percent to 43 percent over Clinton in March in the Journal/NBC News poll, but women split between them. In the most recent survey, Giuliani still wins men by roughly the same margin. But Clinton now wins women, 54 percent to 36 percent.

"The big question for her campaign is: What took so long? There should be a natural affinity for women because she shares their gender," said Kellyanne Conway, a Republican pollster who focuses on gender. "The task for Republican opponents moving forward will be to convince moderate women that she shares their gender but little else."

Hillary can not only win female voters, I have no doubt she will also win male voters in the end. Political campaign is always like this, you first win the swing voters, and convert some of those anti- voters into swing bloc, if Hillary nails this final piece, she will probably win the election by a very decent margin.

Although the state polls are still sketchy, I believe Hillary will be very competitive in OH, FL and other traditional swing states, there are also encouraging signs for her in states such as West Virginia and Arkansas.



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Re: Women will deliver general election to Hillary (3.00 / 0)

Great news!  I knew women would come around.  We can not give up this historic opportunity.  Hillary is not the status quo.  Women know that.  They are not buying that she is.  


by bookgrl on Wed Aug 01, 2007 at 08:46:37 PM EST

It will just get better (none / 0)

To win the GOP nod Rudy will have to sound Newt / Tom DeLay crazy.   He will have to advocate killing or torturing anyone with a brown skin or even just a nice tan.  

Hillary will be wise to have a tracker at all this primary events.  The film will come in handy.


by dpANDREWS on Wed Aug 01, 2007 at 08:46:42 PM EST

Re: It will just get better (none / 0)

Even if he wins, 54% of the electorate that voted in the last presidential were women.  She'll probably bring even more women in to vote who didn't last time.  Remember the group that likes her the best are unmarried 30ish women.  They will come out to vote for her.


by bookgrl on Wed Aug 01, 2007 at 08:50:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It will just get better (none / 0)

All of the GOP candidate have caveat problems that will come back to haunt them in the GE.  Being a woman or being black comes with a very small number of those who would not support such a candidate.  But, the GOP candidates all face much bigger hurdles:  Polls have shown that about 35% of the American people would not back a Mormon (Romney), about the same number would not consider voting for a candidate in his 70s (McCain) and again about the same amount of Americans would not vote for a candidate who is on his third marriage.   All items that most people have not focused on, but will come general election season.    


by georgep on Wed Aug 01, 2007 at 09:00:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It will just get better (none / 0)

Yeah, but George, I think ultimately Hillary is our best chance for an overwhelming victory.  Think about for a minute 54% of the electorate is women, that's going to end up being a huge advantage.


by bookgrl on Wed Aug 01, 2007 at 09:04:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It will just get better (3.00 / 0)

I agree.  If Clinton is the nominee, we will see record turnout amongst women well beyond the 54% they already make up of the electorate.   It would be a historic election in many more ways than an Obama nomination could deliver.  


by georgep on Wed Aug 01, 2007 at 09:26:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The Clinton's could have some fun (none / 0)

Can you imagine the campaign they run against both Rudy and his wife?

Of the woman to currently don't like Hillary ... they may decide they hate Judith even more, and hold it against her bald husband.

As for Rudy, where would you start?


by dpANDREWS on Thu Aug 02, 2007 at 10:50:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It will just get better (none / 0)

That's interesting, because it matches with my real life experience. The most enraged Hillary Clinton supporters I know are unmarried women in their 30s.

Why does Hillary Clinton appeal to them so much?


by Pope Jeremy on Thu Aug 02, 2007 at 12:13:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Women will deliver general election to Hillary (none / 0)

The NBC/WSJ poll mirrors exactly the Rasmussen poll, which has moves strongly towards Clinton over the last 9 days.   Post-debate and post-dustup it is clear who has won nationally.  Today's daily tracking with Rasmussen has Clinton at 42% and Obama at 21%, for the first time ever Clinton doubles up on Obama with Rasmussen, giving her a margin of 21% with Rasmussen.  That on the heels of yesterday's 19% and Monday's 17%.  

Tomorrow Rasmussen will publish their latest head-to-heads pitting Clinton against Giuliani, Romney, Thompson.  


by georgep on Wed Aug 01, 2007 at 09:06:45 PM EST

Re: Women will deliver general election to Hillary (none / 0)

Great news George!


by bookgrl on Wed Aug 01, 2007 at 09:27:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Women will deliver general election to Hillary (none / 0)

Women will deliver Hillary the democratic nomination.
In the general the republican will split the female vote by manufacturing a divide between the professional women and the traditional home makers.
They'll play up Hillarys past comments of not baking cookies etc
These tactics would not work in the Northeast but they'll be effective in Ohio and Florida.
by joachim on Wed Aug 01, 2007 at 09:37:26 PM EST

Re: Women will deliver general election to Hillary (none / 0)

No they won't be.  That's old news.  Hillary apologized, she's raised a fine daughter...women in Ohio and Florida will vote for Hillary.


by bookgrl on Wed Aug 01, 2007 at 09:39:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Team Hillary (none / 0)

Totally.


by bookgrl on Wed Aug 01, 2007 at 11:35:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: visit the website (none / 0)

Do you mean Women's Voices, Women Vote? I know some good people affiliated with them, and what I have heard has been very good, especially regarding voter registration.


by domma on Thu Aug 02, 2007 at 12:28:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Oh Please. (none / 0)

Republicans would need to find Aladdin's lamp and use all three wishes to have a prayer in 08'. The question is not, "who will win the GE?" but rather, "which Democrat will be best for the country?". This should be our guiding principle, not silly little "electability" mindgames. Remember where that got us in 2004.


by alipi on Wed Aug 01, 2007 at 09:57:07 PM EST

Re: Oh Please. (none / 0)

Well, apparently a majority of women think Hillary is will be best for this country.


by bookgrl on Wed Aug 01, 2007 at 09:59:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oh Please. (none / 0)

you know i actually agree with you , shocking


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Wed Aug 01, 2007 at 09:59:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oh Please. (none / 0)


I agree with you. But since Hillary's opponents constantly use 'electability' to bash her, we need to debunk that myth first.

Of course, in our humble opinion, she is the most qualified candidate in the race.


Hillary: We will finally have a president who doesn't mind pulling over and asking for directions. Am I right, ladies?
by areyouready on Wed Aug 01, 2007 at 10:11:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sitting on 289 (none / 0)

Right now, Hillary would win (at the minimum) every state Kerry won plus New Mexico, Nevada, Iowa and Ohio.  That's 289 electoral votes with a good chance at Florida (27 more).  Blowing past to Bill Clinton levels (370 plus) would mean taking some southern states in addition to Florida (Virginia, North Carolina, Arkansas and West Virginia are the best bets) plus Arizona.  This is essentially the Bill Clinton play book.

Getting to re-alignment levels requires making deep and permanent in-roads in the mountain states as well as the upper south.  We would win MO, KY, TN, and a few surprises if that happened.

Play offense.  At the worst we can make the Republicans believe that holding Hillary or another Democrat to a "small" victory (more than W) is a great victory.  Get them worried about Montana ("Bill won it", "there's a populist wind at Democrats' backs").  Then there will be nothing to strike in Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania or Michigan.


by David Kowalski on Thu Aug 02, 2007 at 09:38:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Women will deliver general election to Hillary (none / 0)

A lot of traditional women voters don't mind that their husbands and sons have been Presidents. The male/female divide is not that big.
Its the professional women mostly in the northeast who've seen some questionable male promotions and feel that its important to have a female president to change male boss attitudes.

by joachim on Wed Aug 01, 2007 at 10:43:46 PM EST

Re: Women will deliver general election to Hillary (3.00 / 1)

What are you talking about?  Well, good luck peddling that theory.


by bookgrl on Wed Aug 01, 2007 at 10:51:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Women will deliver general election to Hillary (none / 0)

I don't know what she is talking about


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Wed Aug 01, 2007 at 10:53:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Women will deliver general election to Hillary (none / 0)

No kidding.  Same old same old on the blogosphere.  It's a shame.


by bookgrl on Wed Aug 01, 2007 at 10:57:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Women will deliver general election to Hillary (none / 0)

wow- i dont even know what that means. Im susiscious none the less.


zombies are coming
by leewesley on Wed Aug 01, 2007 at 11:30:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Women will deliver general election to Hillary (none / 0)

Simple..i'd hope that Hillary has a fall back strategy for winning in November other than 'i'm the first female president, its history'
There are a lot of women that don't care about that especially among the moderates and republican women.

by joachim on Wed Aug 01, 2007 at 11:11:46 PM EST

Re: Women will deliver general election to Hillary (none / 0)

She will win all the states kerry won and she should pick up states like NH , New Mexico , Nv ,Co. States like Oh, Fl, Ark , Wv , Virginia and Az will also be in play. These are states she is polling well in . She would build a coalition of women,blacks,hispanics , youths , seniors , single women , independents and dems , including some conservatives, she has a strong shot.  


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Wed Aug 01, 2007 at 11:18:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Women will deliver general election to Hillary (none / 0)

You need to read the article. She is winning the GOP leaning white women slowly but surely.


Hillary: We will finally have a president who doesn't mind pulling over and asking for directions. Am I right, ladies?
by areyouready on Wed Aug 01, 2007 at 11:20:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Women will deliver general election (none / 0)

I hope this is the case- it is what they have been saying for a while- we still have a ways to go though- but I do hope the scenario plays out.


by reasonwarrior on Wed Aug 01, 2007 at 11:52:56 PM EST

well, I don't believe your theory (none / 0)

but if Hillary is the nominee I sure hope she's got a plan for mobilizing all those single and divorced women who don't usually vote. We failed to turn out enough of them in 2004.


Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.
by desmoinesdem on Thu Aug 02, 2007 at 12:56:43 AM EST

Re: Women will deliver general election to Hillary (none / 0)

Will wives for Hillary will debate their husbands and even convert a few?

But I agree, people who think a novice softy like Obama is viable in the general are dreaming.  Rudy has a titanic personality that can eclipse the stink of George Bush.  We knew him in New York.  He is a rat bastard--anyone who underestimates Rudy doesn't know him.  Issues?  Forget about it.  He's going to run on his mega-tough guy personality.  Right now he's running around calling Democrats 'The Party of Losers.'  He would tear Obama to shreds.  Hillary is the only Dem who can beat Rudy.


by Canaan on Thu Aug 02, 2007 at 01:06:18 AM EST

the Republicans won't nominate Rudy (none / 0)

He is dead in the water. The fundies are not going to vote for him, and they dominate the GOP primary electorate.


Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.
by desmoinesdem on Thu Aug 02, 2007 at 01:20:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Women will deliver general election to Hillary (none / 0)

Great.

Then we'll still have some troops in Iraq until God knows when, and the blame for this war will shift to US.

If we're going to elect someone who will keep troops in Iraq, I prefer it be a Republican--- so we can continue to blame them for this war.

Color me "not on board".  I don't care if you think she's electable, that's pretty much beside the point.


by John Poet on Thu Aug 02, 2007 at 06:03:51 AM EST

Re: Women will deliver general election to Hillary (none / 0)

A very recent Mason-Dixon poll states that 52% of Americans oppose Hillary Clinton.

And it's hard to blame them:
http://unitedagainsthillary.wordpress.co m


by SunWolf78 on Thu Aug 02, 2007 at 07:58:00 AM EST


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