'People just don't like her', 'She is just too polarized', 'She can't be elected' are standard lines spouted by clueless DC pundits and blogs (liberal and right wing) to attack Hillary's electability. Let's take a look at the Hillary Clinton's likability ratings in today's NBC/WSJ poll.
Favorable (Unfavorable)
March: 39%:43%
June: 42%:42%
July: 44: 39%
Hillary Clinton has improved her likebility ratings from a 4-point deficit to a 5-point surplus over the past four months, a substantial 9 points swing.
Politics has an excellent summary of women voters' sentimental shift to Hillary Clinton over the past few months. It has some good statistics to back up the 'very encouraging trend towards Hillary...'
All year long, Republicans looking for reassurance about their prospects for 2008 have had a bright spot. Despite the loss of Congress, despite an unpopular war in Iraq, despite a president with plummeting approval ratings, the GOP front-runner continually beat the Democratic front-runner in polls testing a hypothetical general election contest.But now, Republicans have one more thing to be depressed about. A couple of recent polls show Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) beating former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) if they are their party's nominees 15 months from now, according to surveys by the Gallup Organization, The Wall Street Journal/NBC News and Zogby International. Perhaps more noteworthy is the reason why: a migration of ideologically moderate white women into the Clinton camp.
The argument that Clinton could win the Democratic nomination but remain a long shot for winning the White House has rested heavily on two pillars: that Clinton is too polarizing and that Americans are not ready to elect a woman as president.
Both those pillars may be crumbling. While Clinton has long enjoyed an advantage among Democratic women, the latest surveys suggest she is drawing support from other women -- including those who in the past have tilted Republican and earlier in this election cycle were showing no particular enthusiasm for Clinton.
In a hypothetical race between Clinton and Giuliani posed in mid-May, for instance, the two split women evenly, with 45 percent, Zogby found, while Giuliani won the men's vote by 51 percent to 41 percent. By mid-July, Clinton had improved to 54 percent with women against Giuliani's 35 percent, even as the men's vote hardly shifted. This accounted for Clinton winning the overall vote in this matchup by 47 percent to 41 percent. A July Gallup vote echoed the trend.The movement is even more eye-opening when narrowed specifically to moderate women -- a key voting bloc in recent elections and one Clinton's team is giving special attention.
Moderate women favored Clinton 49 percent to 41 percent in the May poll. Clinton now wins moderate women 62 percent to 28 percent over Giuliani in the Zogby poll. The margin of error, when isolating data to look at such small groups, is as high as 8 percent. But the gains are nonetheless statistically significant.
In part, Clinton's improvements are due to Giuliani's troubles. The GOP front-runner's lead has gradually diminished within the Republican electorate, dropping equally among men and women, for reasons that are not fully evident. Many political analysts have long believed that Giuliani would fade once conservatives focused more closely on his socially liberal positions on abortion and gay rights -- and once controversies in his personal life received more national exposure. While Giuliani has received some tough media scrutiny in recent months, Clinton has received considerable positive press due to strong performances in recent debates."Every time there is a debate, people say one thing about her: 'Yep, she's presidential,'" said Harvard public policy lecturer Elaine Kamarck, who served in Bill Clinton's administration. "That would be important to a lot of moderate women who would not automatically support a woman. She becomes increasingly credible as a president, and the other thing is the continued collapse of the Republican Party."
The first female candidate may be proving herself feasible with women, ironically, by projecting a more traditionally masculine political profile.
"She has been absolutely correct that she had to convince people she could be commander in chief, and that sometimes comes at the expense of warmth," Kamarck added. "That's the trade-off, but I think she's making the correct trade-off."
Neither Clinton nor Giuliani may, in the end, be their party's nominee. But the recent polling hints at something many supporters of Clinton's Democratic rivals say they doubt: her potential strength as a general election candidate.Zogby's July 20 poll produced a near-reversal of the May 20 poll, which had Giuliani defeating Clinton 48 percent to 43 percent. Recent Gallup polling also shows her now defeating Giuliani, 50 percent to 46 percent, an improvement over past polls produced overwhelmingly by gains among women.
Wednesday's Journal/NBC News poll shows Clinton defeating Giuliani, as well, 47 percent to 41 percent. In March, it was the reverse: Giuliani led 47 percent to 42 percent over Clinton. Like in the Zogby and Gallup polls, the shift is among women. Giuliani won men by 47 percent to 43 percent over Clinton in March in the Journal/NBC News poll, but women split between them. In the most recent survey, Giuliani still wins men by roughly the same margin. But Clinton now wins women, 54 percent to 36 percent.
"The big question for her campaign is: What took so long? There should be a natural affinity for women because she shares their gender," said Kellyanne Conway, a Republican pollster who focuses on gender. "The task for Republican opponents moving forward will be to convince moderate women that she shares their gender but little else."
Hillary can not only win female voters, I have no doubt she will also win male voters in the end. Political campaign is always like this, you first win the swing voters, and convert some of those anti- voters into swing bloc, if Hillary nails this final piece, she will probably win the election by a very decent margin.
Although the state polls are still sketchy, I believe Hillary will be very competitive in OH, FL and other traditional swing states, there are also encouraging signs for her in states such as West Virginia and Arkansas.
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