Is California Poised To Be Next State To Split EVs Proportionally?

Last week, Jerome reported that North Carolina is likely to become the third state (after Maine and Nebraska) to award its electoral votes proportionally according to the candidates' performance in each of the state's congressional districts (2 EVs go to the statewide winner, 1EV goes to the winner of each congressional district.) Jerome suspects it could swing between 3 and 8 of NC's 15 EVs the Democrat's way, which could be decisive.

Take 2004. Bush beat Kerry in 2004 by 34 EVs, which means Kerry needed to win just 18 more to become president. Let's say in 2008 the Democrat wins all Kerry states in addition to New Mexico (5 EVs) and Iowa (7 EVs,) which seem like likely pickups. That brings the Democrat to within 10EVs of victory, which means just 6 of NC's EVs would send him or her over the top (Dems currently serve in 7 of the state's 13 congressional disctricts.) So, sounds good right? Well, what's good for the goose...Now California wants to get in on the act.

A Republican-backed ballot proposal could split left-leaning California between the Democratic and GOP nominees, tilting the 2008 presidential election in favor of the Republicans.

[...]

"If this change is made, it will virtually guarantee that a Republican wins the White House in 2008," [Democratic consultant] Lehane said in an e-mail.

Nineteen of the state's 53 congressional districts are represented by Republicans. President Bush carried 22 districts in 2004, while losing the statewide vote by double digits.

The difference here is that the California proposal is not going through the legislature as the North Carolina measure did, rather it has been filed for one of CA's 2008 ballots (if it gets enough signatures) for approval by voters. Democrats control both houses of the legislature in California, so, as with so many issues, Republicans have no choice but to bypass the legislative process and go directly to the voters via a ballot measure system that is deeply flawed. The good news is that in recent years the public's  default position on ballot measures has been "No;" the bad news is that if the measure does make the ballot, Democrats would be forced to spend millions of dollars to defeat it.

Also see RDemocrat's diary HERE as well as Julia's post at Calitics, which elaborates on how this really is just business as usual for California Republicans (although it should be noted that Schwarzenegger and the California Republican Party deny any involvement in the measure -- believe what you will.)



Display:


What We Really Need Is (none / 0)

The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact by which state agree to cast all their electoral votes for the winner of the national popular vote, a compact that would go into effect when states with a majority of the electoral votes agreed to it:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Po pular_Vote_Interstate_Compact


by Arthurkc on Tue Jul 31, 2007 at 05:13:21 PM EST

If it passes in 2008 (none / 0)

how can it affect the 2008 election?

If it passes then we should push for similar amendments in all red states. I have nothing against a more proportional representation but it should be done in every state not just in a few.


The history of the left is a history of purists betraying the progressive movement so that they can feel good about their righteous selves.
by Populism2008 on Tue Jul 31, 2007 at 05:15:33 PM EST

Re: If it passes in 2008 (none / 0)

winner take all; suppose you have six out of 10 voting dem. do a split instead of winner take all - and you end up taking a hit on the ev count of 40 percent of the evs you would have otherwise had. california is noteworthy because its a big electoral prize. Even if its only 10 percent here thats still alot of EVs.

Is california the state with the most EVs? I thought it was Cali or Florida, those two. Not sure which one is bigger?


by Trey Rentz on Tue Jul 31, 2007 at 05:26:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: If it passes in 2008 (none / 0)

FLorida is 4th... Cali is first by far with 55, followed by Texas with 34, NY with 31 and the Florida with 27.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Stat es_presidential_election,_2008


http://www.imvotingrepublican.com/ McCain Sucks!
by yitbos96bb on Tue Jul 31, 2007 at 05:34:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: If it passes in 2008 (none / 0)

California (55) is way bigger than Florida (27). Only Texas (34), NY (31) have at least half as many as California.

That's as of 2004; I don't think there's been any reapportionment since then but if I'm wrong those could be off by a couple.

As for this proposal, I'd say IF every state were to adopt it, it would be a good idea (among other things, it would make a few 3rd-party electors a real possibility out here.)  Possibly even better than a "national popular vote" scheme.

But for California (a relatively blue state) to adopt it unilaterally would be a very bad thing.


by nkedel on Tue Jul 31, 2007 at 05:35:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: If it passes in 2008 (none / 0)

It won't change until 2012 with the new census.


http://www.imvotingrepublican.com/ McCain Sucks!
by yitbos96bb on Tue Jul 31, 2007 at 05:37:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: If it passes in 2008 (none / 0)

Thanks.  


by nkedel on Tue Jul 31, 2007 at 05:39:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: If it passes in 2008 (none / 0)

False.  If it passes, it goes into effect immediately.  See my comment below.


by Airpower on Tue Jul 31, 2007 at 06:29:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: If it passes in 2008 (none / 0)

I thought he was answering my question about "not sure if there's been any reapportionment since 2004"


by nkedel on Tue Jul 31, 2007 at 07:37:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: If it passes in 2008 (none / 0)

Ah. I misread.  "By district" electors would be a nightmare for CA given the districting mess we have here.  It might be OK if every state adopted it, but my guess is it would also make redistricting a bigger nightmare everywhere.

What I initially read it as, and would support, would be to award electors proportional to the in-state popular vote - like Trey mentioned.


by nkedel on Tue Jul 31, 2007 at 05:38:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: If it passes in 2008 (none / 0)

Not a good idea.  Instead of swing states, the presidential election would be determined by a few swing Congressional districts, mostly within a few swing states.  This goes in the exact opposite direction of a national popular vote.


by Airpower on Tue Jul 31, 2007 at 06:30:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: If it passes in 2008 (none / 0)

But those districts are more scattered around the country and can't be targeted narrowly. They're part of a bigger media market, It's easier for people in adjoining districts to go to rallies, and see the candidates etc. There is more campaign overflow in districts then there is in a state.

While per theoretically it would be a narrower focus the actual result of a district driven election would more mimic a true national election that the state driven election we have now. Purely because there are swing district in more states then there swing states in total.

With a district driven election the candidates would go to Texas, New York and Florida, instead of just Florida.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Ernst on Wed Aug 01, 2007 at 10:15:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: If it passes in 2008 (none / 0)

The problem is, Populism2008, that if every state awarded electors by district, we'd have a permanent Republican presidency. It's not at all proportional, except insofar as each Republican vote ending up being worth some proportionally greater amount than each Democratic vote because of the way districts are set up.

For Presidential electoral reform, the proposal that states form a 270+ EV pact to award electors to the winner of the popular vote is by far the best and only thing thing to push for (at least for now).


by Zephyrus on Tue Jul 31, 2007 at 05:32:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: If it passes in 2008 (none / 0)

I found the NC proposal good for us, but overall I'm against proposals like this... As you said, it would tilt the presidency toward the GOP everytime.  National Popular Vote is fine; this could backfire on us easily.


http://www.imvotingrepublican.com/ McCain Sucks!
by yitbos96bb on Tue Jul 31, 2007 at 05:36:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: If it passes in 2008 (none / 0)

Then how is there a Democratic majority in Congress?


by Lucas O'Connor on Tue Jul 31, 2007 at 09:15:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: If it passes in 2008 (none / 0)

Democrats are far more effective at winning Congressional races than Presidential contests. Gore lost the majority of Congressional districts in 2000 even though he won the popular vote.

Another DUMB idea, certainly worse than the electoral college.


by College Progressive on Tue Jul 31, 2007 at 10:44:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: If it passes in 2008 (none / 0)

Of course if the system by which Presidents are elected are changed in this sort of way, it's going to change how people think about their presidential vote.

And if we're talking about Gore, Democrats didn't win a majority of the House seats in 2000 either, so that's not particularly compelling example until we're talking about a full switch to popular vote.


by Lucas O'Connor on Wed Aug 01, 2007 at 12:25:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: If it passes in 2008 (none / 0)

Let me add...

Almost every state with a Republican legislature has districts skewed towards Republicans. There are a few 60-70% Democratic districts and many 51-55% Republican districts. Theoretically Democrats could win a state by large margins and lose the majority of the Congressional districts in certain states because Democrats are gerrymandered into a few districts (and large concentrations of Democrats are physically more likely to be in large cities). Take Michigan which was won by Kerry in 2004 but still has a majority Republican Congressional delegation and Kerry lost the majority of Congressional districts.

This EV by district idea is so idiotic, it can only be employed for shallow partisan purposes. In addition to be undemocratic it also adds more encouragement for state legislatures to gerrymander in favor of the incumbent party.

Getting enough states to pass laws giving their electoral votes to the winner of the popular vote is really the only viable alternative to the electoral college. Awarding EVs by the percentage proportion of votes for a candidate in each state could work, but only if every state does it. That won't happen.


by College Progressive on Tue Jul 31, 2007 at 10:51:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: If it passes in 2008 (none / 0)

Gerrymandering is a big problem. Is it Ohio or Iowa that has an independent body that draws the districts? Either way that would make it work better.

Awarding EV by popular vote is a superior method although I doubt most politicians would like it. It would diminish their influence and lower the value of their endorsements.  


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Ernst on Wed Aug 01, 2007 at 10:23:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Actually (none / 0)

You would have more third party candidates entering the election and increasing the possibilities of Presidential elections being thrown into the Congress...

Only the blow out elections would have a clear winner.

If the goal is to fix the once every 100 year problem of having someone win the electors but not the popular either adopt the Cali plan (throwing all electors to the national winner) or amend the constitution to award 50 more electoral votes to the national winner...

Problem solved.

The Republican plan is actually the worst of the worst...

It would increase partisan gerrymandering and increase the possibility of Congress selecting the President...

Ugh...


by Nazgul35 on Tue Jul 31, 2007 at 10:27:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Actually (none / 0)

Congress shouldn't be allowed to select the president though. A simple plurality should be enough, or if not a run-off election like they also have in France would work better anyway.

Personally I wouldn't mind having competitive parties going after the president and more presidents by simple plurality. The office is too dominant nowadays and not how the framers thought it should be.

And while I disagree with a lot of the framers on merit (political science hasn't stood still after all) in this case I think they were right.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Ernst on Wed Aug 01, 2007 at 10:32:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: If it passes in 2008 (none / 0)

That's a good question.

As for the rest, it's all well and good to say we should push for similar amendments in red states, but other states don't have California's crazy ballot proposition process, so there's zero chance that Texas, say, would do anything similar.

The situation is similar to the dilemma of nonpartisan redistricting. California makes it more possible to do, but no red states would follow along, so the Democrats would be unilaterally disarming (or being disarmed with the help of the Republican proponents of a ballot measure).


DC Drinking LiberallyDC for Democracy

by KCinDC on Tue Jul 31, 2007 at 05:32:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: If it passes in 2008 (none / 0)

We have two primaries in 2008.  The Presidential Primary in February, and the regular in June.  The initiative would most likely be on the June ballot and go into effect immediately on passage so it would affect the 2008 election, unless:

(1) it fails a court challenge because it was passed by the people, not the legislature (U. S. constitution, Article II, Section 1, second paragraph states:

Each state shall appoint, in such as manner as the legislature thereof may direct, a number of electors ...

(my emphasis on legislature) or

(2) another measure (yet to be proposed) on the November 2008 ballot negates it.


by Airpower on Tue Jul 31, 2007 at 06:27:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: If it passes in 2008 (none / 0)

Interesting. It would certainly have the appearance of being unconstitutional on the surface unless there is some provision written elsewhere that might override it. Agree with those saying it should be all or nothing. If this kind of thing is going to happen it has to be every state agreeing not cherry picking on a partisan basis.


by conspiracy on Wed Aug 01, 2007 at 05:59:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

We need to beat this. (none / 0)

My view is that either we have the fucking EV system or we don't.  No half-hearted bullshit.  Either keep it or do away with it.  The stuff going on now is WAY too political.  

STFU about the current system or change the constitution.  It's pretty simple.


The only balls the Clintons ever show are against their fellow Democrats, especially progressives.
by jgarcia on Tue Jul 31, 2007 at 05:39:03 PM EST

Re: We need to beat this. (none / 0)

Much as I'd support changing the constitution, state-by-state changes are a lot more realistic... and making those state laws contingent on other states adopting the same plan seems to me to be a perfectly reasonable approach to the "disarmament problem" faced in changing them one at a time.

Yeah, it probably won't happen even by state laws.
Yeah, there's the risk that a state will do something unilaterally bad through one party's power grab.
...but it's still SOME kind of progress.


by nkedel on Tue Jul 31, 2007 at 05:43:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: We need to beat this. (none / 0)

maybe you missed the point of my post:  these state-by-state changes (or attempted changes) are far too political.  And, we risk losing our advantages in big states like NY and CA, whilst the silly little redneck legislatures of the small states keeps the same system because it fucks Democrats.

Again, either do away with it all at once, or don't change the system at all.  And that goes for Maine, too.  They thought they were being cutting-edge and they weren't.


The only balls the Clintons ever show are against their fellow Democrats, especially progressives.
by jgarcia on Tue Jul 31, 2007 at 06:04:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Is California Poised To Be Next State To Split (none / 0)

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!
 This just can't be happening. Luckily, Cali voters rarely approve anything on the ballot because they are so used to seeing a lot of shiity intiatives.
by bsavage on Tue Jul 31, 2007 at 06:23:17 PM EST

Re: Is California Poised To Be Next State To Split (none / 0)

Keep in mind this is likely to be on the second primary in June 2008, not on the first (Presidential) primary in February.  We need to focus on informing the voters and getting them to turn out.  

See here for a look at what is circulating so far.  


by Airpower on Tue Jul 31, 2007 at 06:36:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

North Carolina bill is DEAD (3.00 / 1)

The sponsor pulled it, allegedly because Dean himself intervened to stop it

Hopefully this can be updated on the front page


by meekermariner on Tue Jul 31, 2007 at 07:08:00 PM EST

Re: North Carolina bill is DEAD (none / 0)

I thought only Gov Mike Easley had the veto in NC, but apparently so does Howard Dean. He should have kept his nose out of NC.

We had a chance to pick up 3-6 EVs for the Democrats with this bill, but Dean and the DNC killed it.  We have worked for years to get this bill passed.  It passed 3 votes in the state senate and 2 votes in the house.  We were 2 hours away from the final house vote when it got pulled off the agenda.  What a grat way to keep NC Democrats motivated and enthusiastic. Thanks a lot, Howard.


by Bear83 on Wed Aug 01, 2007 at 10:27:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Is California Poised To Be Next State To Split (none / 0)

I hate the interstate compact idea. Imagine the following scenario. The compact passes in the requisite number of states by 2012, so that election is decided by nationwide popular vote. But one of the state legislatures rescinds their support for the compact, so it's back to the current system for 2016. But then a different state joins the compact, so the 2020 election proceeds like the one in '12. But then, reapportionment after the 2020 census takes too many votes away from the compact states, and it's back to where it is today. It's just crazy that we could have such an unstable system for electing a president. I'm all for a nationwide popular vote, but we should just amend the constitution.


by Gpack3 on Tue Jul 31, 2007 at 11:12:35 PM EST

What about this system: (none / 0)

Instead of splitting votes by district, you split votes directly by proportional vote. Example: the Democrat wins 40% of the vote in Florida, they get 40% of the electoral college votes. Obviously, the percentages don't match up directly to the splitting of the votes, so you round up for the winner of the state, and round down for the loser of the state.

Advantages:

1) You eliminate any favor from gerrymandering

  1. You put almost every state in play, and make every state a place where a campaign may stop, increasing representation
  2. Almost all voters are represented by their choice, instead of the district method, where a Democratic voter in a district that votes 51% for the Republican is still not heard.
  3. It keeps the electoral college protection of smaller states
  4. It changes the fundamental nature of campaigning in this country.


by Unabridged on Wed Aug 01, 2007 at 09:54:00 AM EST

Re: What about this system: (none / 0)

I like this idea much better than either the interstate compact plan, or the EV by CD idea.

Still there are problems. It would result in a lot of small states getting ignored. Under this plan, the fewer EVs a state has the more the vote has to swing to change the outcome. In a lot of small states, one party is strong enough to get at least 40% of the vote, but not quite strong enough to get 50%. Take Wyoming. It has 3 EVs. The Democrats can keep the vote above 33% without much trouble, but they'll never win, so the split will always be 2-1 in favor of the Republican. The problem is worse in a state with 4EVs, where one party can easily get 25%, but could never get 50%, meaning the vote would always be 3-1. Candidates would focus their attention on larger states, where a swing of 5-10 percentage points would mean several votes, as opposed to states where it would take a herculean effort just to get just one more.


by Gpack3 on Wed Aug 01, 2007 at 12:03:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

So let's take the Republican's lead (none / 0)

So let's take the Republican's lead and split Texas.


by Cleveland John on Wed Aug 01, 2007 at 10:02:37 AM EST

What about the REFORM EV split initiative? (none / 0)

Maybe the REFORM EV split intitative can go on the ballot as a competitor.

That initiative says that the voting state would join all others after a 'tipping point' when enough states have signed-on that it would be fair, nation-wide.

So California says 'yes we will do this in the future after X states also agree.'

Then when the X point is reached, the vote is counted nationally and proportionally, eliminating the effect of the Electoral College altogether.


by MS on Wed Aug 01, 2007 at 11:13:04 AM EST

Counter proposition best counter action (none / 0)

One to supersede or nullify.  I bet the supporters of this proposition are all ready re-wording it to be "the" final word.  None the less a counter proposition is the best likely path that will lock both up in the courts well past the 2008 election.  Putting all eggs in spending a ton to defeat this proposition may be fool hardy.


by gasperc on Wed Aug 01, 2007 at 02:04:30 PM EST

Re: Counter proposition best counter action (none / 0)

Under California law, when two (or more) contradictory propositions on the same subject are both passed, the one with the most votes prevails over the other.


by Airpower on Wed Aug 01, 2007 at 10:56:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Different Electoral College Reform Initiatives? (none / 0)

This sounds promising as an alternative to the Gov's proposal. This site describes an initative that would only come into play after enough states join the compact to represent 270 electoral votes, the number required to win the presidency: http://www.nationalpopularvote.com/pages /editorials/columbian.php

Wikipedia describes a plethora of electoral college reforms and seems to conclude that none could work: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Stat es_Electoral_College#Proportional_vote

California Democrat Carol Migden sponsored this call for proportional representation (popular vote count) for the presidency, last spring: http://www.californiaprogressreport.com/ 2007/05/electoral_colle_1.html


by MS on Wed Aug 01, 2007 at 03:05:21 PM EST

Re: Is California Poised To Be Next State To Split (none / 0)

Aren't Democrats poised to gain control of Texas in 2008? Nothing would happen in California until after 2008, so if California goes we switch Texas too.  I would say that is a fair trade, being that Texas is more blue than California is Red. Maybe add Florida.. just a thought


http://ibrokemyrightwing.blogspot.com
by fakes seizures on Thu Aug 02, 2007 at 07:55:52 AM EST

Reply (none / 0)

Aren't Democrats poised to gain control of Texas in 2008? Nothing would happen in California until after 2008, so if California goes we switch Texas too.  I would say that is a fair trade, being that Texas is more blue than California is Red. Maybe add Florida.. just a thought


http://ibrokemyrightwing.blogspot.com
by fakes seizures on Thu Aug 02, 2007 at 07:59:56 AM EST


You are not logged in.

In order to post a comment, you must be logged in. If you have a member account, please log in to comment.

If not, you can make an account right here. It's quick and free.