I  like the "where's that Bubba bounce"...hahahahah...good one...I like desmoinedem eventhough she's an extrem Edwards partisan, she's the only Edwards partisan that i respect.

Anyway,when was this poll taken??...I would hope this is a post debate poll?

that's how polls work. If they kept asking people if they were absolutely sure they'd made up their minds, the numbers would be like 9-7-5. They just ask who you'd vote for... usually you have to volunteer undecided.

This poll suggests that Edwards' strength in Iowa is fairly immune to his national troubles (though I think much of his national decline had already happened by May, when the last poll came out)

If these numbers are accurate, then somebody better place a call to the NYT, USAToday, WaPo, ABC, CBS and NBC.

When Bill Clinton campaigns with Hillary Clinton in Iowa, Hillary Clinton actually LOSES support.  Are you listening MSM?  Time to turn your meme around...180 degrees.  

Actually, when I watched their joint appearances in Iowa, I thought they would actually hurt Hillary Clinton's standing there. The charisma contrast was not helpful to Hillary Clinton.  Yipes.  It also did not help that Bill appeared to be bored (or was bored?) when listening to Hillary speak.

And when Bill uttered the line about "if I were not married to her..." at every stop...well...let's just say that the Clinton campaign made a big mistake allowing him to use that line at every stop.  IMHO, far too many people can respond to that line with an internal thought:  darn right he should no longer be married to her...because she should have left him after the first, second or third act of infidelity.  That line conjured up unpleasant memories, and the Clinton campaign made a big mistake allowing it to be repeated.

Dont worry..Now that Hillary has decided to take out the knife and go after Obama, i expect the black vote to get partisan..Obama will win SC.

Im glad Hillary is trending down along with Obama...I like Edwards and wouldnt mind him winning the nomination...I just hate Hillary's guts..I dont want her anywhere near the white house.

http://www.kcrg.com/news/local/8744867.h tml

Richardson is gaining because he's come out for removal of all U.S. troops from Iraq with no residual force.  Whatever else you may think of him, it has resonated with a number of Democrats and put him a solid 4th in most polls.

i think it will help him because i think obama is coming out on top of this and that is of course good for edwards because he, like people have said, is dropping in iowa and iowa is where edwards needs to win.

i'm not sure if he's gonna be able to "rise above it all" because he's in a position where he needs to distinguish himself from Clinton in order to pull ahead, as is Obama. It's clear that neither one is running for VP this time around, and either one is going to rise, someone has to fall

is any guide, the focus on the two way race at the top helps Edwards in Iowa.

In '04 Dean and Gephardt went after each other, and finished 3rd and 4th in Iowa.

huh? look stop making shit up.

with the name ID and visit by Bill the fact that she's at 22% in any dem caucus or primary survey say's quite alot, now Obama has finally been able to bet to the left of her in the primary race which has been his biggest problem to date. Her instinct was to take the shot to bolster her "experience meme" with the media by calling Obama naive, the problem is that the issue makes Hillary look like the conservatie establishment candiate which it what's she's been fighting against,Obama needed a way to come at her from the left and he's making the most of it.

Bill Clinton, one of the biggest weapon in Hillary's arsenal wasnt able to move her polling numbers?

Hillary also send DVD on monday....when was this poll taken?

Obama has only ran small ad buy there...I expect him to pick up the pace by the end of next month.

really shows that you don't know primary history very well.

But it repeats what the media guys say, so I can't blame you.

Iowa and NH will completely remake this race.  

Please,answer this?...Where's the Bubba bounce??

I'd rather Edwards win Iowa then Hillary...Obama has to stay close to her in Iowa but must make a move in NH....South Carolina is his firewall...This is his real make or break state.

staring down dictators and defending our way of life versus theirs doesnt seem like something the right can attack him on.

oh please. Wolfson looked like he had been pinched. Obama was his straight-up bold self.

If the caucus is held during finals week, or between semesters (both distinct possibilities) there may not be much of a college vote at all.

Actually, a huge overvote by the college crowd won't do much for Obama at all, as it will be concentrated in a few precincts. If Obama overwhelmingly carries the student vote in those precincts, he'll add only a few delegates.

so they are not able to help a candidate as much as they could in a primary.

To repeat a point I made earlier this year (link is http://www.mydd.com/story/2007/3/6/14159 /44432):

three of the four counties where it required the most caucusgoers to elect a state delegate had large student populations: Johnson (University of Iowa), Poweshiek (Grinnell College) and Story (Iowa State University). The other county in the top four was Jefferson County, home to Maharishi University and a large contingent of progressives and Greens (not only Dean, but even Kucinich did better than Kerry and Edwards in that county).
You can add this to your list of reasons why Dean's perfect storm failed in Iowa.

Look at the 2004 Iowa caucus results by county: several of Dean's strongest counties happened to be those where the caucus-goer/state delegate ratio was the highest.

Like I said in my first diary on the caucuses, you don't want pockets of deep support in Iowa. Dean turned out hundreds of supporters in crowded precincts, but it didn't translate into as many delegates as he needed.

If I were Barack Obama, this aspect of the caucus system would worry me greatly.

College student turnout in 2004 was quite high. The problem for Dean was that the students were packed into a relatively small number of precincts.

attendees does not translate into the final result.

A candidate with concentrated strength will fall below the 15% threshold in some precincts, and as a result will get fewer votes than the polling would suggest he should get.

A candidate who is under 20% in the polls will lose about 5% of their support as a result of the 15% requirement.  Candidates who poll in the high 20's will see the reverse effect:  they will perform better than the polling as supporters who fall under 15% move to other candidates.

I will try and look at some past numbers to prove this out.

i agree its not good news for Obama but im happy that Hillary used her biggest weapon in Iowa and she's still trending down...Obama is only running ads lightly...I expect him to pick up the pace some more.

Obama has to stay close to Hillary and right now, there not far apart..About 5%...The plan is to make Edwards spend a lot of money so that he wont have any more money left for NH and SC..Then, its going to be between Hillary and Obama in NH...That is if Edwards cant improve his NH poll numbers.

I'd wait for a second poll to confirm this poll and the trendlines. But you're right. Obama needs to win Iowa badly :)

she's the one in trouble, sure an Obama win in Iowa would be tremendous but he's really hoping Hillary doesn't win because his state is going to be New Hampshire, the indies who alaways show up are going to pick him over Hillary and the yahoo's on the gop side, the goal in Iowa unless Edwards collapses there due to his poor national numbers is to stay competitive with Hillary.

And he doesn't have one based on #'s.

Iowa is Edwards country.  

Hillary has NH, SC, NV, and FL.

The last great speech Obama will give in this campaign is his concession and withdrawl speech after SC.

I see a lot of upside potential for Biden in Iowa. Although at this point I don't see him cracking the top three, he could cause problems for one or more of the other candidates:

http://www.mydd.com/story/2007/7/9/83057 /54400

To be perfectly honest, I don't want Edwards collapse at all. Strategically speaking, His very existence is very good for Hillary' opportunity.I never want a 2-man/woman race. Richardson's strength in IA is also very encouraging. You get a sense what these 'undecideds' are falling for, they may have reservation about Hillary, but they' definitely not shopping for Obama's 'hope'.

Just imagine if he closes the gap with Obama in the next couple national polls due to this dust-up, I'm wondering how Obama campaign is going to react?

Call Edwards a Bush-Cheney lite?

these other candidates' different strength & weakness in different early states sort of prevents a single 'anti-Hillary' force, which could possibly ride on early momentum to beat her.

Edwards is very weak in NH.

Nevada isn't being polled as heavily as Iowa, New Hampshire, and SC.  The latest poll (American Research, June/07) I've been able to find shows Richardson with 6%, Clinton 40%, and Edwards and Obama at 16%, with 15% undecided.  MOE 4%.

Nevada is make or break for Gov. Richardson.  If he doesn't win he might as well quit.

Personally, I'd prefer he run against Domenici in 2008.  Richardson has the best chance to send good ol' Pete packing.

I wouldn't go so far as to say there is "no doubt" about this outcome.

An Edwards victory by 10-15 percent over the second place candidate is quite possible, though.

I think Hillary could ride out second place in Iowa. If she places third despite the Vilsacks and all her money and establishment endorsements, though, there will be trouble for her.

I would gladly caucus for Edwards just to knock off Hillary...I still believe Obama will win Iowa or finish a close second place, then win in NH and SC.

I just cant stand Hillary...She think the nomination belongs to her and she's arrogant

Between the Hillbotocrats and Hillary, i cant decide who i dislike the most.

Im glad this stupid HILL/BILL, 2 for 1 crap didn't play well in Iowa....No one wants to see Bubba back in the white and embarrass democrats again.

Not necessarily bad news for Hillary. As a supporter, I have two big fears for her chance in IA.

The first fear is that Obama will somehow overtake her, but it looks like voters in that state are not shopping for 'hope', they're more interested in experience and resume(look at Richardson's strength).

The second fear is that if she somehow maintains a small lead in many IA polls before caucauses, media will paint any narrow loss as a huge blow. IA is extremely close, so sitting in second place instead of first is definitely not bad. You want media to paint a narrative that Edwards is leading in Iowa, not Hillary.

You don't want Edwards to collapse in IA due to his nation wide meltdown. Since it's difficult to predict where those supporters will go if he collapses. Since the race is close, if any of these supporters go to Obama camp, that will tip the scale.

So I'm happy for a close second place in any IA poll.

The clinton supporters must feel a little shocked with this poll. I know that Georgep was predicting the collapse of Edwards in IA and were thinking that she would surge in IA with the next group of polls.

They were basing this on all of the national polls and Iowan's donot let the national polls dictate their choice.

Caveat, it is still early and this is just one poll and things will change. Early polls had Gephardt ahead and then Dean and then a fight back and forth between both of them. Kerry and Edwards were down in the polls at this point in time.

Ya got me. Though I haven't been around that long, maybe a year ago Obama insulted Armstrong's mother or something. My problem is that Armstrong uses his clout as a front-page poster largely to take cheap shots at Obama. I'd be totally fine if he came right out and said, "I support Edwards" or "I support Clinton/Richardson/Dodd", and used his clout to promote them. But the cheap shots get real old real fast.

why do people create fake postings like this?