I'd put Gordon Smith(OR) in the same category as Mike DeWine(OH).

Gordon Smith(OR) like Mike DeWine(OH) are considered to moderate for the base of the Republican primary making them vulnerable in a primary but too conservative for the voters in the state they represent. Making them vulnerable in the general election depending on the right challenger.

Gordon Smith(OR) like Mike DeWine(OH) is vulnerable to defeat due the Bad environment for the GOP especially in a purple state. DeWine(OH) lost due to the problems facing OH and National GOP plus. Sherrod Brown is a credible challenger.  While Merkley is no Kitzhaber,DeFazio,Bluemenaur.- Merkley is a credible challenger.

That same poll showed Novick with a 10 point name recognition advantage (49% to 39%). Granted, he's already been campaigning for a couple of months, but to already have better name recognition than any other challenger after being a relative unknown outside of political circles is pretty impressive.

Here in Oregon, we all love Jeff Merkley, and we're looking forward to a terrific primary with (at least) two progressive candidates, but at this point, I don't think he's any more or less credible than Novick. The one edge he might have had (fundraising) has been erased by Steve's $200,000.00 head start.

When you say 34% or 32% would re-elect him, it doesn't mean that 66% or 68% would vote against him. In both of those polls, "consider voting for someone else" ranked higher than his re-elect numbers, which ranked higher than his "I will vote for someone else" numbers. While its not a sign of support for Smith, its also not a sign of support for his opponent. In truth, according to both polls, well over 50% of the population either would vote for him or consider voting for him. And in both polls, close to 50% would vote against him or consider voting against him.

Loaded Orygun also doesn't note that Novick's poll at Smith beating him by 23 points, 50-27, and that the ballot test was preceded by a biographical sketch of Novick, which inflates his showing in the poll. While Smith is on shaky ground, his defeat is far from a done deal.

Democratic Seats
1)Arkansas- Pryor- Safe (Free Pass)
2)Delaware- Biden- Safe (Blue State)
3)Illinios- Durbin- Safe(Blue State)
4)Iowa- Harkin- Safe (Free Pass)
5)Louisiana- Landrieu- Vulnerable if Top Tier Challenger emerges. Incumbent Favored.
6)Massachusetts- Kerry- Safe (Blue State)
7)Michigan- Levin-Safe(Blue State)
8)Montana- Baucus-Safe(Free Pass)
9)New Jersey- Lautenberg- Safe (Blue State)
10)Rhode Island- Reed- Safe (Blue State)
11)South Dakota- Johnson- Safe(Free Pass)
12)West Virginia- Rockefeller- Safe(Free Pass)
All of the Democratic Senate Seats(2008)will remain in the Democratic column.

Republican Seats
1)Alabama- Sessions-(R)Safe(Red State)
2)Alaska- Stevens(R)- Watch List
  a)Incumbent is Weak due to scandals- Vulnerable incumbent favored if Stevens runs again.
  b)Open Seat- Safe (R)- Red State.
3)Colorado- OPEN-Allard(R)- Lean Takeover. State trending Democratic. Formidable Democratic candidate. Weak GOP candidate. (+1D)
4)Georgia- Chambliss(R)Safe(Red State)
5)Idaho- Craig(R)- Safe(Red State)
6)Kansas- Roberts(R)- Safe(Red State)- Free Pass.
7)Kentucky- McConnell(R)- Vulnerable(Anti GOP wave). (+2D)???
  a)Unpopularity of Fletcher,Bush and GOP.
  b)Strong Challenger- Greg Stumbo.
8)Maine- Collins- Vulnerable- Incumbent Favored- (Popular Incumbent).
   a)Blue State
   b)Unpopularity of Bush and GOP
   c)Strong Challenger- Tom Allen
9)Minnesota- Coleman- Vulnerable
   a)Blue State
   b)Weak Incumbent- Freshman narrowly elected.
   c)Anti GOP wave- Bush and GOP
   d)Credible Challenger- Franken or Ciresi
    (+3D)
10)Mississippi- Cochran- Watch List
   a)Safe- Red State
   b)If Open- Competive- Incumbent Party Favored
11)Nebraska- Hagel- Safe-(Red State)  
12)New Hampshire- Sununu- Lean Takeover
   a)Blue State
   b)Weak Incumbent- Freshman narrowly elected.
   c)Anti GOP wave- Bush and GOP
   d)Credible Challengers- Shaheen,Marchand,Swett.
    (+4D)
13)New Mexico- Domenici- Vulnerable
   a)Weak Incumbent- Vulnerable but Incumbent Favored if Domenici runs again.
   b)OPEN Seat- Lean Takeover- Purpleish Blue State- Strong Democratic candidate. Weak Republican candidate. (+5D)
14)North Carolina- Dole- Vulnerable- if Strong Challenger emerges.
15)Oklahoma- Inhofe- Vulnerable(Weak Incumbent- Gaffe Prone- Macaca)
16)Oregon- Smith- Vulnerable
   a)Blue State
   b)Anti GOP Wave
   c)Strong Democratic Challenger- Merkley
  (+6D)
17)South Carolina- Graham- Safe- Red State
18)Tennessee- Alexander- Safe- Red State
19)Texas- Cornyn- Safe- Red State
20)Virginia- Warner- Watch List
   a)Safe- Red State but trending Blue.
   b)If Open- Lean Takeover- If Mark Warner is the Democratic Nominee.
  (+7D)
21)Wyoming- Enzi
22)Wyoming- Barrassoo-
 Wyoming Races are Safe- Red State.

Right now- Democratic are favored to pick up CO,NH,and MN.(+3)
Plus- NM and VA- if OPEN Seat. (+5)
KY,ME,and OR - Anti GOP wave. (+8)

Looking at the Poll numbers
32% said they would vote to re-elect Smith
19% said they would vote to replace Smith
34% said they would consider someone else
15% Undecided.

Gordon Smith's poll numbers range from
47% to 56%

Merkely or Novicks' poll numbers range from
43% to 53%.

At worse- Smith(R)gets re-elected by a 56-43 percent margin.
At best- Smith(R) gets unseated by a 53-47 percent margin.

I agree that this is a top tier race. Either Novick or Merkely could pull it off, and I expect the race will tighten considerably next year, and be Democratic-favored by fall 2008.  The heavy hitters who failed to run will be kicking themselves.

Ranking the races:

Top tier (our best pickup shots): CO, NH, MN, ME, OR

Second Tier (promising, but uphill. We should work hard on these this year to MAKE them competitive): KY, NC, TX, OK

Indeterminate (depends on the seat opening up; promising Dems waiting in the wings; could be competitive even if incumbent runs; better be ready): VA, AK, NM, NB, ID

Third Tier (possible, but fading for lack of strong declared candidate): TN, GA

Not Currently In Play: SC, KS, AL, MS, WY a&b.