The Ames, Iowa Straw Poll is coming up on August 11 and gives the Republican presidential campaigns a chance to flex their on the ground organizing muscle by buying tickets for supporters and bussing them in from around the state. The event consists of a non-binding vote taken at an Iowa Republican Party fundraising dinner at which the candidates speak. While the vote is non-binding, the straw poll is traditionally predictive of the actual results of the Iowa caucus. Hence, the reason Giuliani and McCain dropped out of the straw poll and why Thompson decided not to officially announce until after it: you can't lose if you don't compete and if a Romney win in the straw poll gives him an aura of inevitability in the caucus, then the only way he can go is down and the only way they can go is up.
Race42008 is announcing that the line-up for speakers and the order of the ballot are set:
Speaking Order (chosen randomly)Mitt Romney
Tom Tancredo
John Cox
Ron Paul
Mike Huckabee
Duncan Hunter
Tommy Thompson
Sam BrownbackStraw Poll Ballot (alphabetical order)
Brownback
Cox
Giuliani
Huckabee
Hunter
McCain
Paul
Romney
Tancredo
Fred Thompson
Tommy Thompson
While the winner is essentially a foregone conclusion (to the point where Romney has announced he's scaling back his organization for the event), the results among the rest of the field will be decisive. Chris Cilizza has an interesting article that breaks it down.
More over the flip...
If history is any guide, the straw poll will winnow the field of GOP candidates. In the month after the 1999 Straw poll, the field was pared by four with Lamar(!) Alexander, Dan Quayle, Elizabeth Dole and Pat Buchanan all stepping aside.This time around several leading candidates -- including former Govs. Mike Huckabee (Ark.) and Tommy Thompson (Wisc.) as well as Sen. Sam Brownback (Kans.) -- have painted Ames as a make or break moment in their campaigns. If any of these candidates finish below third at Ames, it's hard to imagine them continuing on in any serious way.
[snip]
Tom Tancredo/John Cox/Ron Paul: All three of these men are running more of a cause than a campaign. For Tancredo it's illegal immigration, for Paul it's libertarianism, for Cox it's who knows what. As a result, it's hard to analyze what impact if a stronger or weaker than expected showing could have on their candidacies. Paul could be something of a sleeper; his performances in the debates has created a national following of sorts around him and he has enough money to play semi-seriously in the straw vote if he is so inclined. Tancredo has said unless he finishes in the top five at the straw poll, he will likely end his candidacy.
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