And The 'I Don't Knows' Have It

The latest AP/Ipsos poll has the clearest sign yet of Republican discontent with their choices for president: the "None/Unsure" categories beat the top candidate, Rudy Giuliani, 23% to 21%.

What's remarkable about this is the movement from last month's poll. In June, the "None/Unsure" categories accounted for 14% (and Rudy Giuliani was well ahead with 27%.) Since then, more than 50% more of the people who were unsure about whom to support then are unsure today. So where are these people coming from?

Between June and July, Rudy Giuliani has dropped 6 points (from 27% to 21%) and John McCain has dropped 4 points (from 19% to 15%.) In this same period, Fred Thompson has risen only 2 points (from 17% to 19%) and Mitt Romney has gained just 1 (from 10% to 11%.) In other words, Republicans are fleeing the frontrunners but aren't happy with the guys waiting in the wings.

Hmm, wasn't Thompson supposed to be the white knight, riding in to rescue the discontented GOP base from its lame stable of candidates? Looks like they're not buying him either, or at least the enthusiasm that was there for him in theory has lessened as they've found themselves confronted with yet another problematic candidate (a pro-campaign finance reform lobbyist of all things!)

So maybe this bodes well for yet another unannounced candidate, say Gingrich for example. Oops, he was included in this poll too and drops from 7% to 5%.

It almost makes you want to feel bad for the GOP base. Almost.

Update [2007-7-17 15:7:50 by Todd Beeton]: As point of contrast, on the Democratic side the "none/unsure" folks account for 13% vs. 10% last month. As for the national primary numbers, Polling Report has them and check out georgep's diary for a side by side comparison of AP, Gallup and Zogby, all of which show a stable race on the Democratic side.



Display:


Re: And The 'I Don't Knows' Have It (none / 0)

Couldn't happen to nicer guys.  


by Big Red on Tue Jul 17, 2007 at 02:58:09 PM EST

Re: And The 'I Don't Knows' Have It (none / 0)

RCP Average 06/22 - 07/15 -

Clinton 37.1 %

Obama 23.1 %

Edwards 11.9 %

Gore 15.3 %

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/ 2008/president/us/democratic_presidentia l_nomination-191.html


"I don't oppose all wars...what I do oppose, is a dumb war" ~ Barack Obama
by BlueDiamond on Tue Jul 17, 2007 at 03:07:28 PM EST

Re: And The 'I Don't Knows' Have It (none / 0)

Ooops. Wrong Diary. I apologize. Carry on.


"I don't oppose all wars...what I do oppose, is a dumb war" ~ Barack Obama
by BlueDiamond on Tue Jul 17, 2007 at 03:08:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Thompson (none / 0)

The undecided number is not only telling, but the fact that Thompson is number two in a lot of polls and in first in one (Zogby I think).  The guys isn't even in the race.

That being said I think he is making a mistake putting his announcement off until Sept. (as was being reported today).  The media and the voters have been giving him a lot of attention to date as they play the waiting game.  I think they will get sick of the waiting game soon and he could lose some mo.

I really like the idea running against a fat, bald, b actor who sounds like he has a wad of dung in mouth.


by dpANDREWS on Tue Jul 17, 2007 at 03:12:10 PM EST

Re: Thompson (none / 0)

I think we will be fine against any of these guys.

I have a feeling that Giuliani has the best chance of the lot, by default.  Not because he is a good candidate, but because the others are worse than him.  


by georgep on Tue Jul 17, 2007 at 03:51:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Hillary is beating Rudy in Ohio (none / 0)

From polling I have seen and the Ohio GOP is in freefall so it is not surprising.  

We win Ohio it is ballgame.  Iowa, Hew Hampshire, Wisconsin, New Mexico, those little purple states we have to sweat won't even matter.

Throw in Colorado which I think has to have an excellent chance of going blue and I think '08 is ours for the taking.


by dpANDREWS on Tue Jul 17, 2007 at 03:54:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary is beating Rudy in Ohio (none / 0)

WV is about gone blue as well.  I also think we have a great shot at my state, Florida.   Bill Clinton won this state twice, and we all know how Gore did here (he won the state but was robbed.)  Hillary Clinton is doing exceptionally well here (the last 3 polls have her ahead of Obama by 23, 20 and 18 points) and she beats all GOP comers in this state except Giuliani who is very slightly ahead (by a smidgen.)


by georgep on Tue Jul 17, 2007 at 04:01:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

McCain and Romney will take care of Rudy (none / 0)

It is going to be fun to watch.

Rudy is dumb to run.  The media and the ignorant among us would have long remembered him as "Americas Mayor."  Know they will learn the truth and he will just be another washed out shill.


by dpANDREWS on Tue Jul 17, 2007 at 04:16:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary is beating Rudy in Ohio (none / 0)

Clinton only won Florida in 1996.


Follow the 2010 election cycle in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
by TheUnknown285 on Tue Jul 17, 2007 at 04:26:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary is beating Rudy in Ohio (none / 0)

Sorry, George.  Bill Clinton lost Florida by 100,000 votes in 1992 but won it by 302,000 in 1996.  According to the Florida newspapers investigation at the time, Gore won Florida by about 22,000 votes.  Given what happened in the black areas of Duval County (Jacksonville) and other places, I suspect the margin was at least twice that.

Take three or four states in the south (FL, VA, NC, and WV or AR) and three or four in the Mountain states (NM, Co, NV, and maybe AZ) and it becomes a rout.

Try to make a route for a Republican without FL or OH in the mix.  They have to pull off incredible feats to make up those 49 electoral votes.  Add Iowa and CO and it just gets harder.


by David Kowalski on Tue Jul 17, 2007 at 07:56:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Thompson (none / 0)

I wonder why Thompson is deciding to hold off on the announcement until September. What does he have to gain by doing that? I have heard rumblings that he is a lazy candidate, so maybe he just wants to procrastinate having to do the hard work of being on the trail.
I do think Thompson's GOP primary numbers will obviously go up after his announcement. It looks like he and Romney will fight it out to see who wins the nomination (my money is still on Multiple Choice Mitt).
by AC4508 on Tue Jul 17, 2007 at 04:12:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

He's trying to pull a Nixon... (none / 0)

...letting the other candidates get beaten up by the press while he waxes eloquently on the world, increasing his stature with the public...

He's also counting on a huge and quick influx of cash once he announces...  

Personally, I think he will be getting in too late to the game...  he won't be able to get enough cash or true exposure in 3 months before the big primaries start...

Thanks,

Mike


by lordmikethegreat on Tue Jul 17, 2007 at 04:45:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: And The 'I Don't Knows' Have It (none / 0)

Can you show us a historical analysis of why these polls matter?


by bruh21 on Tue Jul 17, 2007 at 04:58:54 PM EST

Re: And The 'I Don't Knows' Have It (none / 0)

After seeing these polls, I have one question.
Who will 'None of the Above' choose asa running mate?
by spirowasright on Tue Jul 17, 2007 at 07:41:29 PM EST


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