With Michael Bloomberg seemingly gearing up for an independent presidential bid financed by his own thick wallet, there has been quite a bit of polling in recent weeks on his potential effects on a race for the White House. There are a number of folks who believe that a Bloomberg candidacy would hurt the Democrats, a sentiment I don't entirely share (even if I continue to believe that Democrats helping forward a Bloomberg candidacy do not belong in the Democratic Party). In fact, recent polling indicates that the Democrats fair fairly well with Bloomberg in the mix.
Last week Gallup released polling on a theoretical head-to-head-to-head matchup between Hillary Clinton, Rudy Giuliani and Bloomberg. Similar to state-by-state polling on that race conducted back in June by SurveyUSA, the Gallup poll showed the Democratic nominee winning by the relatively healthy margin of 45 percent to 39 percent to 12 percent over Giuliani and Bloomberg, respectively.
The New York Daily News, which clearly has a stake in such a race given the fact that all three candidates are themselves New Yorkers, has also polled such a matchup nationally. Lo and behold, the results look fairly similar: 40 percent for Clinton, 33 percent for Giuliani, and 10 percent for Bloomberg. As if these numbers were not clear enough in showing that a Democrat could beat a Republican with Bloomberg in the race, the Daily News poll followed up with information about information about Bloomberg, followed by a second horserace question. In this case, Clinton's support remains the same, Giuliani drops slightly (though well within the margin of error) while Bloomberg rises slightly (also within the margin of error). These changes could reflect statistical noise, but they could also point to the possibility that a Bloomberg candidacy hurts the Republicans more than it hurts the Democrats.
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