A Bloomberg Problem for the Democrats?

With Michael Bloomberg seemingly gearing up for an independent presidential bid financed by his own thick wallet, there has been quite a bit of polling in recent weeks on his potential effects on a race for the White House. There are a number of folks who believe that a Bloomberg candidacy would hurt the Democrats, a sentiment I don't entirely share (even if I continue to believe that Democrats helping forward a Bloomberg candidacy do not belong in the Democratic Party). In fact, recent polling indicates that the Democrats fair fairly well with Bloomberg in the mix.

Last week Gallup released polling on a theoretical head-to-head-to-head matchup between Hillary Clinton, Rudy Giuliani and Bloomberg. Similar to state-by-state polling on that race conducted back in June by SurveyUSA, the Gallup poll showed the Democratic nominee winning by the relatively healthy margin of 45 percent to 39 percent to 12 percent over Giuliani and Bloomberg, respectively.

The New York Daily News, which clearly has a stake in such a race given the fact that all three candidates are themselves New Yorkers, has also polled such a matchup nationally. Lo and behold, the results look fairly similar: 40 percent for Clinton, 33 percent for Giuliani, and 10 percent for Bloomberg. As if these numbers were not clear enough in showing that a Democrat could beat a Republican with Bloomberg in the race, the Daily News poll followed up with information about information about Bloomberg, followed by a second horserace question. In this case, Clinton's support remains the same, Giuliani drops slightly (though well within the margin of error) while Bloomberg rises slightly (also within the margin of error). These changes could reflect statistical noise, but they could also point to the possibility that a Bloomberg candidacy hurts the Republicans more than it hurts the Democrats.



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even more meaningless (none / 0)

than other national polls, because Bloomberg's name ID outside NY state must be very low.

Also, Rudy is not going to be the GOP nominee.

I would not want to see Bloomberg in the race, particularly if Hillary is the nominee. I know some pro-choice Republicans who have voted for Democrats occasionally in the past, depending on how retrograde the GOP nominee is. I think that kind of person would choose Bloomberg over Hillary in a heartbeat.


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by desmoinesdem on Tue Jul 17, 2007 at 01:15:20 AM EST

Re: A Bloomberg Problem for the Democrats? (none / 0)

I heard a disturbing rumor yesterday (merely hearsay from no one who is in a position to necessarily know) that Gore has met with Bloomberg about a possible running mate slot. If Gore gets in, could he possibly have such a tin ear about a running mate AGAIN?


by Todd Beeton on Tue Jul 17, 2007 at 02:07:43 AM EST

Re: A Bloomberg Problem for the Democrats? (none / 0)

Are the Clintons doomed to always win three-way races for president with only a plurality and a superwealthy businessman as the independant? Why couldn't Wallace, Anderson and Nader have been superwealthy businessmen? ;-)


by kovie on Tue Jul 17, 2007 at 05:58:17 AM EST

Re: A Bloomberg Problem for the Democrats? (3.00 / 1)

Obviously Bloomberg won't register much of an impact right now.  He doesn't have a high profile.
The question is what happens if Bloomberg drops a billion dollars on television advertising such that everyone finds out who he is?
Thee best point that has been made is that national polls are actually not what's scary to Democrats.  Bloomberg wouldn't be running as an issue-candidate like Nader to pick up a certain percentage and make a statement.  Bloomberg would be trying to win --- i.e., trying to pick up electoral votes.  And he won't have a chance to do that in the South, so he would be trying to do it in New York, Pennsylvania, California --- in the blue states Democrats would prefer not to have to spend money competing in.
A Bloomberg candidacy with a billion-dollars competing in blue states would scramble the calculus enough that it certainly makes me nervous.
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by psericks on Tue Jul 17, 2007 at 06:43:38 AM EST

Re: A Bloomberg Problem for the Democrats? (3.00 / 1)

I forget who was writing about it, but I thought someone had made an interesting point regarding Bloomber as kingmaker.  Basically, the theory goes that Bloomberg has no interest in winning the presidency, but rather in affecting policy.  By entering the ballot in only a few key states, he may be able to shore up enough electoral votes to swing the election towards whoever offers him the best deal.


The Hindsight Factor
by Jay Daverth on Tue Jul 17, 2007 at 08:14:12 AM EST

3 way NY race not going to happen (3.00 / 1)

I'd like to see some polling that doesn't include Billary or Giuliani-time, as I don't think either will get the nomination.  Bloomberg's name recognition outside of the NYC area is minimal, and I think his relatively decent strength in national polls is due for a desire for a 3rd party or independent candidate.  Bush and congress(on both sides of the aisle) have lousy approval ratings - there is a groundswell available for anyone who is not a D or R politician as usual.  

Wacko-Perot got 19% during peacetime, imagine what a Billion dollars will do for a pro-choice, pro-development, pro-environment, anti-war candidate who is not a Dem or a Rethug (even tho he has been both in the last 10 years), and who will likely get the endorsement of the Governor of the largest state in the country?

Also missing from these polls are other candidates.  Assuming Ron Paul doesn't get the R nom, and if Hillary or another centrist/pro-war dem gets the Dem nom, then there will be well-funded and vibrant Libertarian and Green candidates, especially if Bloomberg gives the 3rd party candidates cover as spoilers.


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by brooklyngreenie on Tue Jul 17, 2007 at 01:30:00 PM EST

and of course (none / 0)

the answer to the question is that yes he's a problem for the Democrats, Because he might win!


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by brooklyngreenie on Tue Jul 17, 2007 at 01:31:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Bloomberg Problem for the Democrats? (none / 0)

I don't want him in because he allows the GOP an out.  The last time we thrashed one of their unsuccessful presidents with a generation and paradigm changing victory, they were able to whine that the only reason we won was because there was a third party candidate in the race.

I don't want that this time.  I want the American people to deliver a rebuke so overwhelming, so stinging, so unmistakeably punishing to the Republican Party that it takes them 25 years to recover.

I want realignment.


by DrFrankLives on Tue Jul 17, 2007 at 04:10:20 PM EST

Re: A Bloomberg Problem for the Democrats? (none / 0)

The Republicans were given a major rebuke already, in the 2006 elections.

Unfortunately, the Democrats are squandering the benefits by not taking strong and effective action against the war and against President Bush.


by Lex on Tue Jul 17, 2007 at 08:35:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Hillary,Rudy and Bloomberg (none / 0)

An all-New York election. Gag me with a spoon.


by antiHyde on Tue Jul 17, 2007 at 05:59:02 PM EST

Re: A Bloomberg Problem for the Democrats? (none / 0)

A Bloomberg candidacy would be a big problem for the Democrats.  The polls right now are essentially meaningless, since very few respondents know what his stance on the issues will be.

If he comes out as a strong anti-war candidate, as expected, he could split the anti-war vote with the Democratic candidate, particularly if it is Senator Clinton.  


by Lex on Tue Jul 17, 2007 at 08:33:23 PM EST

Re: A Bloomberg Problem for the Democrats? (none / 0)

Bloomberg has supported Iraq.  And with Iraq being the biggest issue going into 2008; Bloomberg hurts the other pro-Iraq candidates more.  If he was the same guy yet significantly anti-Iraq, then he would hurt Democrats.


~Michael Hurta
by Michael Hurta on Tue Jul 17, 2007 at 09:29:52 PM EST

Re: A Bloomberg Problem for the Democrats? (none / 0)

Bloomberg is a New York City candidate. He has switched parties twice in the last few years. I don't think he is a threat. He is more of an opportunist. A very rich one but an opportunist nonetheless. Just like Lieberman.

We already have one personality candidate running for President. I am not sure we can handle another.


by DoIT on Tue Jul 17, 2007 at 09:56:56 PM EST


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