MyDD :: MoveOn poll

by georgep on Thu Jul 12, 2007 at 01:28:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Wait a minute now. I was asked many times here that if Clinton were strong with partisan Democrats, how come she placed FIFTH in the Moveon.org poll while Obama placed FIRST. I think the result of Obama dropping so dramatically here is absolutely newsworthy. Instead of "shooting the messenger" would it not make sense to offer an explanation why exactly so many Moveon.org members are turning their backs on Obama now? Could it not be that many of them feel a bit "sour" on Obama's bipartisan statements? That deserves exploring, as the result speaks for itself. Obama seems to be trading favor with the far-left wing of the party for a more general, not-so-far-left direction, calculating that many Democrats are not part of the far-left end of the spectrum, thereby claiming a more "centralized" mantle, which, if successful for the nomination, so the calculation goes, would help him also in the general election.

African-american for Hillary 2008

this is NOT scientific so take it WITH A VERY SMALL GRAIN OF SALT.

by terrondt on Thu Jul 12, 2007 at 01:45:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

by remove on Thu Jul 12, 2007 at 01:51:32 PM EST
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chrisinhampton is right: MoveOn members were given the chance to vote on which candidate had the best environmental plan after they asked questions of the candidates and the candidates replied in video format.

It wasn't about who they would vote for in general-- it was about who had the best position on the climate change. Just as the earlier straw poll was about who had the best position on Iraq (Obama won that one with Edwards as a close second). The next MoveOn straw poll will address issues about health care.

None of this is straw polling for the general election however, so it shouldn't be taken as Obama losing support, Edwards gaining support, or that 15% of MoveOn members will be voting for Kucinich.

TheDailyBackground.com

Georgep (none / 0)

I have no argument with anything you said. I agree that it is newsworthy and I am not "shooting the messenger." I didn't phrase it well, but my point was that Jerome put no real analysis in this, but just threw out that odious, "Some might find surprising."

What you did is very different. You offered analysis. If this piece explained some of the thoughts behind the results of the poll, and examined why certain candidates ended up where, that's a whole different story.

My argument isn't that Jerome posted these results. My argument is that, without any analysis, he threw out a dig at Obama without attributing it to anyone.

by dansac on Thu Jul 12, 2007 at 02:14:48 PM EST
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Re: Georgep (none / 0)

I see where you are coming from. I guess I did not see it as a dig the way you did.

by georgep on Thu Jul 12, 2007 at 02:23:35 PM EST
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Re: Georgep (none / 0)

I see it that way based on a pattern in Jerome's postings. He has found ways to bash Obama in posts that have nothing to do with Obama.

by dansac on Thu Jul 12, 2007 at 05:49:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

It surprised me (none / 0)

Kucinich came in 2nd. Do you think MoveOn members are typical Hillary supporters?

by clarkent on Thu Jul 12, 2007 at 01:32:56 PM EST
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by MarcTGFG on Thu Jul 12, 2007 at 01:35:37 PM EST
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I usually dislike that technique too but in this case I think its true to say that some people will be surprised by that result. You maybe not.

As an Edwards supporter I certainly am surprised. Edwards was declining in almost every recent poll. In the dailyko and mydd straw polls he just held steady but didnt improve much. And there was no dramatic fall off for Obamas numbers anywhere.

So: Yes these poll results are a surprise.
Whatever they mean.

The real story here is how well Richardson polls with the most engaged people. This will show in the Iowa caucuses!

Even though some ridiculed me when I said more than a month ago, that I can envision Richardson overtaking Obama and/or Clinton in Iowa I still stand by that projection. Anybody wanna bet?

by georgep on Thu Jul 12, 2007 at 01:43:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Yup. I bet you on the Clinton equation of that one (not Obama, who I frankly don't see as ending up strongly in Iowa.)

by georgep on Thu Jul 12, 2007 at 01:20:59 PM EST

Amazing. Clinton now almost in second place, ahead of Obama, with Moveon.org? I think I just heard an entire babylonian tower collapse somewhere in the distance.... :-)

Hillary: We will finally have a president who doesn't mind pulling over and asking for directions. Am I right, ladies?

That's why Hillary does NOT, NOT go to yearlykos. She can gain nothing there. She will win over bloggers by just winning. People love winner in the end.

by areyouready on Thu Jul 12, 2007 at 01:59:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

But, she is going to yearly kos (none / 0)

Right?

BlueNC - Progressive NC Politics

by Robert P on Thu Jul 12, 2007 at 02:32:11 PM EST
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Hillary is going to YearlyKos (none / 0)

It was announced today.

by dansac on Thu Jul 12, 2007 at 03:23:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Edwards has been held down (3.00 / 0)

in polls - many are not aware of his message, and it is clear that the Media has either chosen a "rising newcomer" or pushing one that has "paid connections to the media" and polling by a person with their own interest in mind.

That makes this poll important, and I still believe Edwards is underestimated in polls esp. the ones that may have a skewed agenda.

Check out the New Progressive Blog EENRBLOG

by dk2 on Thu Jul 12, 2007 at 01:27:03 PM EST

Re: Edwards has been held down (3.00 / 1)

It also helps that he (Edwards) sent out an email to his entire list telling people to vote in the poll, which likely explains why he did much better overall in comparison to his house party score.

Obama's been hampered by his consideration of research into coal, which has hurt him on the environmental check-card front.

Never separate the life you live from the words you speak. -Sen. Paul Wellstone (Minnesota)

by Max Fletcher on Thu Jul 12, 2007 at 02:00:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

It's interesting to see people (none / 0)

complain that one of our candidates takes MoveOn very seriously, while the others don't seem to value their endorsement.

Seems not long ago we would have lived and died to have a Progressive candidate embrace MoveOn.

BlueNC - Progressive NC Politics

by Robert P on Thu Jul 12, 2007 at 02:43:03 PM EST
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Re: It's interesting to see people (none / 0)

I wasn't complaining, I was just saying that that probably helped him get a bigger percentage of the vote.

I'm glad he took it seriously and sent out the email. Maybe the other candidates should have done that, too (I don't know if any did, I'm only on the Obama and Edwards mailing lists).

Never separate the life you live from the words you speak. -Sen. Paul Wellstone (Minnesota)

by Max Fletcher on Thu Jul 12, 2007 at 03:14:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

also (none / 0)

There was obviously something accounting for the disparity between people who were at the party and people who weren't. That was just my best guess as to what it was.

Never separate the life you live from the words you speak. -Sen. Paul Wellstone (Minnesota)

by Max Fletcher on Thu Jul 12, 2007 at 03:15:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

by domma on Thu Jul 12, 2007 at 01:29:50 PM EST

Is there anyway we can know what influence the email the Edwards campaign sent out had on this poll? I wonder if Clinton or Obama had sent a message to their lists about the MoveOn poll, would it have changed the outcome? I only received Edwards' message - did other messages go out from other campaigns?

Edwards handily won the poll of those who voted at house parties, too. It wasn't like he stole the poll.

by clarkent on Thu Jul 12, 2007 at 01:31:39 PM EST
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by domma on Thu Jul 12, 2007 at 01:47:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Right, and I certainly do not dispute Edwards' wins. The margin between Edwards and Kucinich in the general vote, though, is much greater than the margin between Edwards and Richardson in the attendee vote. I'm simply curious how great an effect of Edwards' email had on the general vote (is it a 5% bump? more? less?), and, honestly, why other candidates did not appeal to their lists. It was a smart move for Edwards to email his list about the MoveOn poll and says something about Edwards' commitment and outreach to the Netroots.

by Luigi Montanez on Thu Jul 12, 2007 at 09:17:55 PM EST
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Edwards won the house party vote handily? I'd have to dispute that a 5% margin of victory constitutes such a description.

Fact of the matter is, Edwards won the online vote by so much because of that email the campaign sent. No other campaign sent a similar email, because they didn't want to give MoveOn their best email addresses.

What do I mean by that? It works like this: Megapopular online advocacy group does an online poll. Campaigns want to win that poll, so they send an email to their list saying "Hey, vote for me here". Megapopular online advocacy group thus benefits by hording the email addresses of all those who vote. Those activists who vote are the most loyal, and the most likely to take other actions when prompted. Megapopular online advocacy group then starts bombarding those loyal supporters with email, asking those supporters for their time and money, thus diluting the quality of that campaign's original email list.

The Edwards campaign knew this, and they calculated that winning the straw poll was worth giving MoveOn their best email addresses, probably because they figured that a huge percentage of those email addresses were already on MoveOn's list.

This is the same reason why you were asked to vote in 84 different polls last year for your favorite Congressional candidates. Organizations and a bunch of nascent presidential campaigns (Feingold's being the most brazen) were building their email lists.

Leftmost Bit

First off, the breakdowns weren't online vs. house party vote. They were total vote vs. house party vote.

Also, you hit upon another point. The online voting wasn't just a quick click of the mouse - you had to actually fill out a form with personal information. It's not likely that too many people who weren't already MoveOn members would have bothered.

Finally, MoveOn sent out their own reminders to vote in the poll, so Edwards likely benefited just as much from that reminder as his own. I doubt Edwards has an e-mail list of 3.3 million, after all.

by clarkent on Fri Jul 13, 2007 at 05:16:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Jerome, there's a diary on the rec list on exactly this topic. Just sayin'.

by clarkent on Thu Jul 12, 2007 at 01:29:56 PM EST

by Djneedle83 on Thu Jul 12, 2007 at 01:36:39 PM EST

Edwards is going to kick butt in the Iowa caucus. We better hope he does or Hillary will be the Democratic nominee.

Good for Edwards (none / 0)

He deserves some good news.

by aiko on Thu Jul 12, 2007 at 01:41:52 PM EST

by Tim Hendricks on Thu Jul 12, 2007 at 01:43:39 PM EST

It's a poll on climate change people. I voted Edwards. I voted Obama in the straw poll. That doesn't mean I am abandoning Obama. It reflects my opinion that Edwards is the best candidate WRT climate change. The best candidate WRT the nomination is still Obama. I just wish Obama would take some cues from Edwards on this important issue.

I think if MoveOn did another straw poll it would still show Obama leading overall among MoveOn members.

The real John McCain.

by jsamuel on Thu Jul 12, 2007 at 01:50:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The last poll wasn't "who would you vote for" either. It was "who is best on Iraq?" Obama won narrowly over Edwards in that poll.

by sirius on Thu Jul 12, 2007 at 01:43:47 PM EST

MoveOn voters are high information, active, extremely likely voters. They are the kind of people who less informed voters are going to call and say "who should I vote for?" They also aren't going to just sit around and wait for those calls. They will advocate for their candidate. I'm delighted that they saw John's excellent plan on global warming for what it is.

by georgep on Thu Jul 12, 2007 at 01:44:36 PM EST

Careful predicting against Clinton in debates, especially the "town-hall" format, a huge strength of hers.

by youngdem87 on Thu Jul 12, 2007 at 01:49:36 PM EST

Edwards was the only candidate to send out a mass e-mail asking supporters to vote for him in the Moveon poll. The others did not make an effort. I am on all 2008 e-mail lists and the only one I got was from Edwards.

The questions I have are this-

Did Edwards just send out an e-mail to all his supporters?

Did Edwards somehow get a list of Moveon members' e-mails, cross-reference it with his e-mail database and then blast everyone who matched?

I can't imagine Edwards sending out something to his entire list. This is too minor for that. So did someone at Moveon provide him a list of e-mails? Doesn't this compromise their status as a 527?

Either way, this speaks to Edwards' e-mail priorities more than support among members.

by jsamuel on Thu Jul 12, 2007 at 01:52:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Factually incorrect.

As posted in the OP:
House Parties which were held WAY before the single email show Edwards still winning by 2x Clinton and Obama. Obama did even worse here.

Edwards 25.53%
Richardson 20.19%
Kucinich 17.55%
Clinton 13.80%
Obama 10.18%
Biden 6.15%
Dodd 3.63%
Gravel 2.96%

Re: MoveOn poll (3.00 / 2)

Edwards sent his message out to everybody: I'm on Edwards' list and not a MoveOn member and I got the email. Everybody did. Sorry to burst your conspiracy theory that MoveOn rigged it for Edwards.

As an aside, the Obama campaign did post an item on their official blog encouraging people to vote.

TheDailyBackground.com

by remove on Thu Jul 12, 2007 at 01:53:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

by jsamuel on Thu Jul 12, 2007 at 01:54:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

So Obama "rigged" it too? I was wondering how he beat Richardson.

by bruh21 on Thu Jul 12, 2007 at 01:59:21 PM EST
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encouraging people to vote is rigging? look I am in support of edwards, but I dont see how obama rigged anything

by JaeHood on Thu Jul 12, 2007 at 05:25:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Obama did not even mass emailed...I'm on Obama's list and i wasnt even aware that such an event took place....It was yesterday that i found out they were a MoveOn straw poll.

I would have voted for Obama if he had email me and ask me to participate...I'm no MoveOn guy and couldnt care less about their house party and im sure Obama partisans didnt even know about cuh house parties or online straw poll.

by jsamuel on Thu Jul 12, 2007 at 05:28:54 PM EST
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I agree, I was being sarcastic. Sorry for the confusion.

by bruh21 on Thu Jul 12, 2007 at 06:03:33 PM EST
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No, I am just sarcasm challenged online. Apologies for being clueless.

Some Obama (3.00 / 0)

supporters are quite paranoid today and big on baseless accusations.

If one believes Obama is a deity, then I suppose one cannot believe that the rest of the world does not share that belief.

He lost this one. Better get used to it.

by littafi on Thu Jul 12, 2007 at 02:36:34 PM EST
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by lafinur on Thu Jul 12, 2007 at 02:09:54 PM EST

This is a poll I would not want to win.

There I said it!