What Obama's Numbers Mean: Updates from WP/Dodd/Biden

There are already a number of new discussion threads about the release of Obama's numbers for the second quarter, but I thought I might post some thoughts, add up some numbers, and ask a few questions.

Primary Funds Gap Widening
               First Quarter        Second Quarter     Total
Obama    $25,615,400          $31,000,000          $56,615,400
Clinton    $18,992,800          $21,000,000         $39,992,800 (Estimates now updated)
Of the at least $32.5 million Barack raised in the second quarter, 95% of those funds are for the primary.  Although Hillary Clinton raised $26,041,109 in the first quarter, that number was inflated through simultaneous fundraising for the general election.  In actuality, only $18,992,800 of those funds are usable for the primary.  That's only about 73%.  If that same percentage held, that would put Clinton at just under $20 million in funds for the primary.  
The amazing thing about this is that despite Clinton's $10 million dollar transfer from her Senate campaign account in the first quarter, Obama will probably gain the lead in primary dollars.  This lead will allow Obama to run the kind of advertising campaign he needs to catch up in name recognition.

Update [2007-7-2 12:37:41 by psericks]: Washington Post's Chris Cillizza:
Obama is now moving into a position to dictate the terms of the rate and depth of spending in the caucuses and primaries. All of the other candidates -- including Clinton -- will have to watch and see what Obama's spending strategy is over the coming months. Obama will have the resources to run Rolls Royce campaigns in each of the first four states -- Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina -- and build the sort of organizations in places like Florida, Michigan and California to capitalize on any early momentum he gathers.
The only other candidate who will be able to come close to matching Obama in that process is Clinton. Will she be able to do everything Obama does organizationally and on television? Amazingly, maybe not. But she is the only candidate who can even come close.
Update [2007-7-2 12:56:10 by psericks]: Dodd's campaign has also put out some numbers now, raising $3.25 million, less than last quarter's $4,043,757. A $4.7 million transfer from his Senate account helps a little.
Sen. Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., on Sunday reported raising $3.25 million in the quarter for his presidential campaign, bringing his total raised this year to $7.3 million. Dodd last quarter also transferred $4.7 million from his Senate campaign account. His campaign said he had $6.5 million cash on hand at the end of the quarter. http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/us/AP-Campaign-Money.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

You have to wonder what the bottom is for a candidate to really be able to compete. No word yet on Biden...
Update [2007-7-2 19:23:34 by psericks]:
On Monday, Delaware Sen. Joe Biden's campaign announced he raised $2.4 million during the last three months. http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/us/AP-Campaign-Money.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

Average Donation
In the first quarter, Clinton's donation average was up at $370, Edwards was at $350, and Obama's at $246.  Based on the current numbers, he would have an average donation of around $211.  For comparison, on the Republican side their donation averages have been around double Obama's: Mitt Romney had an average donation in the first quarter of $646, Giuliani of $519, and it seems that Mitt Romney needed an infusion of personal funds to reach the $20 million mark again this quarter after facing a drop-off in donations.  (It's interesting that Edwards looks like he is facing a pretty dramatic drop-off in his average donation, from $350 in the first quarter to $150 in the second.  Big donors backing away from the campaign?)

Why Does this Matter?
Aside from all of the reasons to be excited about having 258,000 donors individually contributing to the campaign as a sign of enthusiasm for the campaign, there's also an ever-widening financial gap among the candidates.  Jerome points out, Kerry needed only $5 million in the last three months to win the 2004 Iowa caucus, but we're starting to see a much more dramatic funding divide.  Obama will have raised a total of $56 million, Clinton around $38-40 million (plus $10 million from the Senate campaign fund), Edwards around $23 million, Richardson around $13-14 million...  Biden and Dodd will probably be lucky to break into the double-digits.  And this gap will probably only continue to widen between the tiers.  
There's a really good question here.  Do funds help that much in Iowa?  Or will they make Iowa irrelevant --- as the candidates picking up momentum there will be unable to compete with the sheer amount of money spread out across a national primary on Feb 5th?  Will candidates like Clinton and Obama actually reach the heights of $80-100 million before the primaries even start?  It seems almost certain at this point.  These are figures we simply aren't used to seeing until the general election.  
And will the gap between Clinton and Obama potentially continue to grow as Obama relies on a massive list of small-donor repeat-givers and Clinton continues to exhaust her big donors giving up to the limit?  74% of Clinton's first quarter total came from donors giving $2,300 or more, in contrast with 49% for Obama and 47% for Edwards.  (Obama is still showing serious growth in the second quarter and Clinton basically matched her first quarter numbers, all the other Democrats seem to have dropped off and remained steady.)

A Different Kind of Campaign: The "Enthusiasm Gap"
What Obama's campaign has really shown is the extraordinary success of his strategy of calling on ordinary people to own a piece of his campaign.  His large donor base has also shown extraordinary loyalty, since his 258,000 donors donated an average of almost 1.4 times.  The numbers (104,000 donors in first quarter, 100,000 more contributions than donors in the second) suggest that a lot of his first quarter donors came back in the second.  This suggests a loyal and dedicated base --- they are donors that continue to come back and give.

Comparisons with Dean
Although it's accurate that the 2008 campaign heated up more quickly than in 2003, it is still extraordinary that the Obama campaign's 258,000 in the first six months rivals Dean's 280,000 for the entire year of 2003.  The number also rivals the size, according to some commentators (I have yet to see the stats), of the Clintons' famous rolodex from their years in the White House.  

Is Obama setting himself up to be the next Dean?
Obama's campaign has shown itself to be keen on learning from the lessons of the Dean campaign.  Depending on who you ask, you will get fifty different explanations for what went wrong, but just to focus on a couple of the big ones, I think Dean's defeat is not comparable for a number of reasons --- one of the best is that he ran into the wall of an anti-Dean vote who saw him as too liberal for the general election.  The Iowa caucus requires supporters of candidates under 15% who pick another candidate, allowing the system to deflate the results of the insurgent candidate.  Second, Dean very quickly ran out of funds to make a comeback.  Third, in 2003 Democrats were in a hurry to pick a challenger to an incumbent president.  In this case, the Republican primary looks to me as if it might even last longer and be more competitive than the Democratic one.
Why is Obama better positioned?  
First of all, his base of volunteers isn't on the blue coasts but in Illinois, a neighboring state, where they have already started a "Sister Cities" program to match volunteers with communities in Iowa and continue to send them back again and again to get to know the community instead of showing up the weekend before the election.
Second, both Obama's running behind in the national polls and Dean's defeat are going to keep the campaign grounded.  The campaign knows it has a serious fight.  This might just help it keep focused on building its organization in the early states.  Camp Obama, about which many have posted, is churning out interns to fan out to the early states and with a good head-start over previous election cycles.
In short, Obama is doing everything right.  He's building his campaign, training volunteers, encouraging small donors to own a part of the campaign, building connections through its social networking site, raising funds, etc.  It's important to focus on how extraordinary his accomplishments have been so far.  If there wasn't another candidate named Clinton in this race, Obama would undoubtably be the clear front-runner, which is an amazing accomplishment for an African-American candidate.

Anyway, those are some thoughts...

Sources for First Quarter Stats:
http://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/index. asp?cycle=2008
http://projects.washingtonpost.com/2008- presidential-candidates/finance/2007/q1/



Display:


Re: What Obama's Numbers Mean (1.00 / 1)

The memo that his campaign manager released does not show a new kind of politics to me.It was an attack on other candidates Hillary especially.He doesn't attack her face to face but uses memos from his campaign and other means.


by bebe on Sun Jul 01, 2007 at 03:35:20 PM EST

He doesn't? (3.00 / 4)

Sure he does.  This one was last Monday:

A reporter asked Obama about the Clinton campaign touting her experience at recent events.

"The only person who is probably prepared to be President on day one is Bill Clinton, not Hillary Clinton," Obama said. "I think we're all very qualified for the job. The question is who can inspire the nation to move beyond the politics that have bogged us down in the past."

The Illinois senator claimed his candidacy would be stronger at "bridging some of the divides that have blocked progress on health care, blocked progress on energy. That's what we're interested in -- not repeating the same old fights but trying to bring about a new consensus that move this country forward."


http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/200 7/06/27/obama-bill-not-hillary-prepared- to-be-president-on-day-one/


One Million Strong --- Join up
by psericks on Sun Jul 01, 2007 at 03:49:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Here is the video (none / 0)

of the interview.

Obama addresses Hillary Clinton's experience on CNN


Obama Citizen Ad Videos
by lovingj on Sun Jul 01, 2007 at 08:28:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

No Attack (3.00 / 4)

To say that Hillary Clinton has the advantage in the early polls that an incumbent normally would have is not an attack on Hillary in any way shape or form.  


by Doug Dilg on Sun Jul 01, 2007 at 03:49:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: No Attack (1.00 / 1)

yeah right


by bebe on Sun Jul 01, 2007 at 03:57:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: No Attack (3.00 / 2)

Hillary has an incumbent-esque lead in the polls right now.

SMEAR COMMENT ZOMFG TROLL RATE ME TROLL RATE ME.  

Doug was talking about one aspect of the memo.  Thanks for ignoring his post before you responded.    


by JeremiahTheMessiah on Sun Jul 01, 2007 at 04:50:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: No Attack (none / 0)

and her supporters seem to think she is Bill Clinton - an incumbent


"I'm LeBron, baby. I can play on this level. I got some game." Barack Obama
by gb1437a on Sun Jul 01, 2007 at 06:06:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: No Attack (3.00 / 1)

AND it is ok for her pollster Mark Penn, who was caught doing this, "so called but not really" push polling.  Throwing negatives on Obama and Edwards?  But of course, she publicly disdains this, but has her hatchet men out doing it for her.  Please, this is not going to be won with tea and crumpets.  A fight to the finish.


"I want my voice to be read"
by icebergslim on Sun Jul 01, 2007 at 10:00:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Slime from Mark Penn (none / 0)

No, it's not ok that Hillary hired Mark Penn to slime Democrats in the primary. Penn is bad news for all Democrats, just like Karl Rove is bad for Republicans. It takes time, but negativity eventually blows back.


Children, have you any fish?
by FishOutofWater on Mon Jul 02, 2007 at 09:39:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: No Attack (3.00 / 1)

AND it is ok for her pollster Mark Penn, who was caught doing this, "so called but not really" push polling.  Throwing negatives on Obama and Edwards?  But of course, she publicly disdains this, but has her hatchet men out doing it for her.  Please, this is not going to be won with tea and crumpets.  A fight to the finish.


"I want my voice to be read"
by icebergslim on Sun Jul 01, 2007 at 10:02:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: No Attack (none / 0)

so you are saying its not possible to be an incumbent (from your sarcasm) because of what? because she isn't president I am guess? Well, that would be a useful guage, but the more accurate guage in politics are in the areas of name recognition, money and voter fatique. I am not going to go through those things right now- but to pretend that HRC doesn't have those factors going on strikes- well let's just say I don't think she percieves reality like some of you here do. I think she realizes what she has to face.


by bruh21 on Sun Jul 01, 2007 at 11:17:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

If you think that this is an (3.00 / 1)

attack then get prepared for a nasty primary. It's not a lovefest, nor should it be.

Hillary deserves to be exposed, since the MSN clearly won't do it (they have rea$ons to be nice to her and they will have a great time taking her down if she's the nominee).


The history of the left is a history of purists betraying the progressive movement so that they can feel good about their righteous selves.
by Populism2008 on Mon Jul 02, 2007 at 02:56:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What Obama's Numbers Mean (3.00 / 1)

You are a Hillary Clinton Campaign Operative. F*ck off. You can try to create fake grassroots support but you're never going to have any. Clinton tactics will fail.


by jed on Mon Jul 02, 2007 at 01:29:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

What Obama's Numbers Mean: More Quotes (3.00 / 4)

"Every day over the past three months, over 1,500 Americans have made clear to Barack Obama that they believe in his vision for our country by contributing to his campaign," said Penny Pritzker, the Chicago hotel heiress who is serving as Obama's national finance chairwoman.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/con tent/article/2007/07/01/AR2007070100381. html?hpid=topnews
One Million Strong --- Join up
by psericks on Sun Jul 01, 2007 at 04:11:09 PM EST

Penny Pritzker can rustle up a lot of support (none / 0)

within the Chicago business community as well as throughout the country from the Hyatt organization.  That is why she can keep Obama in the same ballpark as Clinton.


by lobo charlie on Sun Jul 01, 2007 at 04:45:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What Obama's Numbers Mean (3.00 / 2)

Forget the skewed polls and their results; this early in the campaign, they're irrelevant!!

Here comes the "Wallet-Polls".  
This is the situation where the numbers don't lie.  This past three months on a daily basis, about 1,500 Americans did put their money where they have their hearts and the result shows Barrack Obama beating his rivals with wide margin.

I skipped lunch twice to donate $40 in three installments to the Obama campaign this quarter; and I'm happy that we came out on top.   Like the other 250,000+ donors, my wallet is still open to the campaign and I'm proud to be the financier of this great movement to change America and take our government back from the special interest, lobbyists, and the cronies that awards no-bid contracts to donors that sleep in and out of the White House since 1992.

The significance of Obama's blow-out second quarter numbers is very huge if one considers the fact one of the rivals even brought in a former president to solicit and send out emails to donors (who're already maxed out) in an effort to rescue the campaign's financial position.   We all want something fresh - we're tired of this same old group that had controlled things in the past 18 years being recycled.


by igwealth5tm on Sun Jul 01, 2007 at 05:56:31 PM EST

Re: What Obama's Numbers Mean (none / 0)

Excellent analysis! Those pole numbers are soft, generic- campaign donations are real cumulative figures.
by g1967 on Sun Jul 01, 2007 at 07:03:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Good analysis psericks. (none / 0)


Obama Citizen Ad Videos
by lovingj on Sun Jul 01, 2007 at 08:26:32 PM EST

Re: What Obama's Numbers Mean (3.00 / 2)

According to the NYT:


David Plouffe, the Obama campaign manager, said in an interview Sunday that more than 90 percent of the contributors to Mr. Obama could contribute again.

That's pretty impressive for a campaign which has the overall highest fundraising figures.  

Do funds help that much in Iowa?  You bet they do.  But they don't make it irrelevant.  It just means that the resources are available to make the best effort.  The real difference that I see is that it makes Obama a serious contender in the other early primaries where TV ad buys are just about the only way a candidate can compete everywhere.  That makes a big difference and should come as a relief to the Obama campaign and a threat to the Hillary strategists.  I think they were always counting on being in the driver's seat for these other February races.  Given that the primary schedule is still in flux there is no better insurance policy than plenty of cash.


by Shaun Appleby on Sun Jul 01, 2007 at 09:09:17 PM EST

Obama outraises HRC by a cool $10 million (3.00 / 2)

You should update diary:

Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, Democrat of New York, raised about $21 million for the primary, a spokesman confirmed Sunday, and about $27 million over all.

Obama outraises HRC by  a cool $10 million

2Q primary totals

Obama: $31 million
HRC: $21 million

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/07/02/us/pol itics/02obama.html?_r=1&hp&oref= slogin


by aiko on Sun Jul 01, 2007 at 09:49:51 PM EST

Re: Obama outraises HRC by a cool $10 million (none / 0)

Jonathan Prince, deputy manager of the Edwards campaign, said that slightly more than half of the $9 million -- $4.7 million -- came from small donations. In the first quarter, more than 80 percent of donations to the Edwards campaign were $100 and under; this quarter, more than 80 percent were $50 and under.

So, that means, they are giving even less. His small donors are giving him less money and the big donors are giving larger which means they will have maxed out. If his smaller donors are giving half the amount they gave last time, what will happen when Edwards bigger donors max out? He will have small donors who give smaller amounts.

So, why does the Edwards Team think this is a good thing?

I'm confused.


"I don't oppose all wars...what I do oppose, is a dumb war" ~ Barack Obama
by BlueDiamond on Mon Jul 02, 2007 at 02:23:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama outraises HRC by a cool $10 million (none / 0)

Done, thanks


One Million Strong --- Join up
by psericks on Mon Jul 02, 2007 at 09:48:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Very thorough indeed (none / 0)

And ppl do not understand this.  I am going to Iowa in the fall, and will be trained here locally.  From what is being said from the ground, this race is very undecided.  President Clinton is not going to Iowa for nothing, as Obama is not either.  But what Obama has done in 6 months is extraordinary, it just is.  No one can not say he can not compete, because with any campaign 50% is the cash, it can not run without it.


"I want my voice to be read"
by icebergslim on Sun Jul 01, 2007 at 09:53:15 PM EST

Re: What Obama's Numbers Mean (3.00 / 9)

I'm going to be honest.  As a Hillary supporter, this is a victory for Obama. I won't put a "spin" on it- it's a major achievement he can use to move himself forward.  Congrats to him and to all his supporters.  But we're not letting up so let the best one win!


by reasonwarrior on Sun Jul 01, 2007 at 10:11:24 PM EST

money and Iowa (3.00 / 5)

I think there is a point beyond which spending more money in Iowa doesn't get you much. Edwards and Richardson will have enough money to compete with Clinton and Obama in Iowa, I don't doubt that.

I think the biggest advantage for Obama now is that he will have money to spend in places like California and Florida before February 5. Hillary's plan all along has been to drown the rest of the field in cash.

I am impressed by Obama's fundraising, and (speaking as an Edwards supporter) I think it's good insofar as it will start to change the media narrative regarding Hillary's inevitability. Hillary's bundlers are no longer going to be able to call people and say, look, get on the bus now, because we are winning this and we will remember who didn't help us along the way.

Hillary started off with a list of at least 250,000 people who had donated to her or to Bill in the past. Yet she hasn't been able to get that many people to donate to her campaign so far.

Obama, who started from a much smaller base of contributors, has swamped her in terms of the number of contributors. Edwards has done well from that standpoint too, considering how much less national media coverage he gets, and how much of what he does get has been negative in recent months (haircut).


Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.
by desmoinesdem on Sun Jul 01, 2007 at 11:55:33 PM EST

Thank You!! (none / 0)

The 250K rolodex, that has been bragged about in the press on this board.  First quarter, aw she did not tap into it.  Second quarter, does she have the names TO tap into it?  Because after Obama Q1 haul, out of nowhere, I would have had a phone bank dialing 24/7 for MONIES.  What happened?  And then she had President Clinton dialing?  What happened?  Will someone answer this question?


"I want my voice to be read"
by icebergslim on Mon Jul 02, 2007 at 11:48:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What Obama's Numbers Mean: Update (3.00 / 4)

Changing the "air of inevitability" discussion is the most important facet of Obama's 2nd quarter.

I also expect him to go more directly after HRC once he has introduced himself fully to the electorate and built sufficient "goodwill."  Being perceived as going negative early is not a good strategical move, even if it satisfies some "red meat" desires in the blogosphere.

The Obama campaign is not "stalling" - to use a football analogy, it's running the ball and doing the dirty work in the trenches - to set up the big play.


by NC State Dem on Mon Jul 02, 2007 at 09:43:08 AM EST

A better money frame (3.00 / 3)

Mostly, the line on Q2 has been that Obama raised $10 million more for the primaries
than did Clinton.

While this is true and important, the stronger frame -- and the real ledger-sheet story --
is that Obama raised half again as much as Clinton for the primaries, and
that even Bill Clinton could not keep this from happening.


by horizonr on Mon Jul 02, 2007 at 10:26:37 AM EST


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