Ending the War in Iraq

I was watching the U.S. vs John Lennon last night, and there are moments with Johnson and Nixon (mostly) speaking about Vietnam, that sounded remarkably similar to the fate of Bush. To get out of Iraq, there are two initiatives that strike me as being on the mark, but are not under enough consideration.

The first is from an email I got the other day from the Bill Richardson campaign:

Congress can pass a resolution de-authorizing the Iraq war TODAY and call on the President to redeploy ALL of our troops in six months.

Article 1 of the US Constitution gives the Congress, not the President, the right to declare war. And the War Powers Act specifies that the President may not continue a war without Congressional authorization. In 2002 Congress passed a resolution authorizing the Iraq war because the administration claimed Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction and links to Al Queda.

Saddam is dead. There never were any WMDs or ties to Al Queda. The basis for the 2002 war authorization is gone.

If Congress passes a resolution de-authorizing the war, the President has no legal authority to continue. De-authorization cannot be vetoed, and it would legally require Bush to begin bringing the troops home.

I know there's the Byrd-Clinton proposal on this, and that Ron Paul is advocating for this as well. I just don't see why they are waiting for the fall to move on this, when it could be done right now.

The second is from the LATimes today:

Sens. Sam Brownback of Kansas and Gordon Smith of Oregon are cosponsoring a nonbinding resolution by Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. (D-Del.) that urges decentralizing the Iraqi government and creating semiautonomous regions for Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds. Biden has been championing the plan for more than a year.

Why not?
On Thursday, Biden said the president still "clings to a fatally flawed notion ... that the Iraqis will rally behind a strong central government that keeps the country together and protects the rights of all faction."

"Simply put," Biden continued, "Iraq cannot be run from the center absent a dictator or foreign occupation. If we want the country to hold together and find stability, we have to make federalism work."

Brownback agreed Thursday, calling the so-called federalism plan "the only political solution that works."

Biden acknowledges that his plan could require a long-term, though much reduced, U.S. military presence in Iraq, much as U.S. troops have helped keep peace among once-warring ethnic communities in the Balkans.

That did not trouble Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.), one of the staunchest advocates for withdrawing American troops from Iraq and a cosponsor of the Biden resolution. "Even those of us who have been ... calling for very swift removal of forces ... have always said it's not so much that we object to our being there as what the mission is," she said.


That Boxer is on board with this is significant. This has both a good chance of passing and more importantly, of succeeding in Iraq.



Display:


Re: Ending the War in Iraq (3.00 / 1)

Biden is a real leader on this issue.  Further, there appears to be no other real and pragmatic options available.


by BigBoyBlue on Fri Jun 08, 2007 at 01:23:02 PM EST

"real and pragmatic options" (none / 0)

When the Viet Nam war was raging, Vermont Senator George Aiken was one of the first to advocate a withdrawl. An incredulous reporter (they had some back then too) asked "Senator, just how do you propose we get our troops out?" To which Aiken responded..."In boats".

http://www.dailykos.com/comments/2006/11 /20/9484/1793/9#c9


miasmo.com
by miasmo on Fri Jun 08, 2007 at 01:38:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ending the War in Iraq (none / 0)

GENERATIONAL WAR

yesterday June 8 2007

Defense Secretary Robert Gates announced today that Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Peter Pace, the highest-ranking U.S. military official, is being replaced by Navy Adm. Mike Mullen.

Pace is the first Joint Chiefs Chairman not to be renominated for a second term since the military was centralized under the joint chiefs position 21 years ago. The selection of Mullen also marks the first time in 21 years that both the head of the Joint Chiefs and the CentCom Commander, Adm. William Fallon, have been Navy officers.

Some insight on Mullen can be gained from a speech he gave to sailors in Pearl Harbor in Feb. 2007:

In his opening remarks, Mullen, a Vietnam War veteran, told Pearl Harbor sailors: "I honestly believe this is the most dangerous time in my life.

"The enemy now is basically evil and fundamentally hates everything we are -- the democratic principles for which we stand ... This war is going to go on for a long time. IT'S A GENERATIONAL WAR."

We are involved in an endless War for nefarious purposes. Wes Clark 2006


by dearreader on Sat Jun 09, 2007 at 07:27:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

complete withdrawal (none / 0)

Any proposal, including Biden's, will have a much better chance of success if tied to a specific date for complete withdrawal. Iraqis must know that we plan to leave at some point reasonably soon, or else they will continue to support an insurgency. Biden's plan may make sense overall, but it is no substitute for a specific date for COMPLETE withdrawall of all U.S. forces.


miasmo.com
by miasmo on Fri Jun 08, 2007 at 01:24:55 PM EST

Re: complete withdrawal (none / 0)

and no funding after deadline period.


Dare to be free.
by misscee on Sat Jun 09, 2007 at 08:48:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Not So Fast (3.00 / 1)

Jerome,

There are many serious roadblocks to this idea.  The most important may be Turkey.  Turkey would not for a moment tolerate an independent, or even federally-independent, Kurdistan on its borders.  It would not take much for Turkey to invade what is now northern Iraq and the Biden-Boxer soldiers there would be in the middle of something akin to but more dangerous than the current Iraqi civil war.

And, there are the issues of oil and access to oil; revenue sufficient to support the federally-independent states; what to do about Baghdad with its diverse populations; ethnic, religious, or sectarian cleansing that would be immediately unleashed in each of the three areas; the danger (as seen by many) of a strong Shia state along the southern border that might or would practically merge with Iran; and the list goes on.

We need out, and out now.  We cannot reduce our deeply embedded role in Iraq's violence by changing its nature or location.  The Iraqis are going to have to resolve all these issues themselves and our presence may exacerbate the problems and delay their resolution.


by Arthurkc on Fri Jun 08, 2007 at 01:25:56 PM EST

Re: Not So Fast (3.00 / 1)

Why should the fascist-like actions of some in Turkey have a veto on doing something that's right for all of the people of Kurdistan and in Iraq?


by Jerome Armstrong on Fri Jun 08, 2007 at 01:34:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Not So Fast (none / 0)

I am not saying it is right or wrong, just that it will not reduce American military involvement in Iraq, just change its location and the forces it is fighting.  The so-called three-state solution may be a solution to some problems but it is most definitely not a solution to American military involvement, including high costs in soldiers and money, in Iraq and our current occupation.


by Arthurkc on Fri Jun 08, 2007 at 01:48:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Not So Fast (none / 0)

Turkey would not for a moment tolerate an independent, or even federally-independent, Kurdistan

One can argue that Kurdistan is, in many ways, already semi-independent.  


by BigBoyBlue on Fri Jun 08, 2007 at 01:39:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Not So Fast (none / 0)

More than that, Shiites and Sunnis in Iraq are not just Shiites and Sunnis. They are Iraqi Shiites and Iraqi Sunnis. Unless the Iraqi people and the Iraqi parliament wish to create a federal structure, and there's little sign that they wish to do this, splitting the country into three autonomous regions isn't going to work.

If a regional division is made, it merely makes life difficult for those of the wrong group in the areas. Combine that with the near-impossiblity of a division which pleases everybody, and I think this plan just brings Iraq much closer to a civil war in the classical sense rather than the less organised version we currently have.


Visit Forgotten Countries, my new foreign policy-based blog
by Englishlefty on Sat Jun 09, 2007 at 11:16:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ending the War in Iraq (none / 0)

I've asked the Richardson campaign this question and I'm eager to hear their response. Since Jerome quoted their email, perhaps the MyDD community can assist in answering my query.

Richardson wrote, "If Congress passes a resolution de-authorizing the war, the President has no legal authority to continue. De-authorization cannot be vetoed, and it would legally require Bush to begin bringing the troops home."

Can someone please explain this to me?

My understand is as follows:

1. The President can veto any matter presented to him by the Congress.

2a. Any resolution Congress passed that was NOT presented to the President (i.e...a concurrent resolution) does NOT have the force of law.
2b. A concurrent resolution, which does not have the force of law, cannot repeal a statutory authorization (the AUMF), which is a Public Law.

3. Any resolution Congress passed that repealed the AUMF or otherwise attempted to restrict the President's already-existing authorization would need to be a bill or joint resolution and would need to be presented to the President.

Either I'm missing something here or the Richardson campaign is...Let it be said that I'm all for Congress ending the war, but the idea that we can end the war by a legislative vehicle that is not subject to a Presidential veto is, to me, false.


"for with a country, as with a person, what is a man profited if he shall gain the whole world, and lose his own soul?" ...lbj
by JasonCGW on Fri Jun 08, 2007 at 01:29:31 PM EST

Re: Ending the War in Iraq (none / 0)

Richardson is wrong.

A bill can only become law if it is signed or overrides a veto.

Richardson is either purposefully misreading the War Powers Act for political purposes or is mistaken. I suspect it's the latter.

Th War Powers Act was created to require a President to get congressional authority to invade a country, by delcaration of war or statutory authority, within 90 days after the President invaded a country without congressional support (it may be unconstitutional anyway).  Here, the IWR gave the President the authority to invade so the War Powers Act is not applicable. Thus, to get a new plan for Iraq to become law, the President must sign the bill, must act alone, or his veto must be overrode.

go to wikipedia and get the link to the language of the war powers act, it's pretty clear.


by dpg220 on Fri Jun 08, 2007 at 01:49:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ending the War in Iraq (none / 0)

I reviewed the War Powers Act and there does exist a provision that proclaims "the President shall" withdraw troops if directed by a concurrent resolution.

Setting aside the massive constitutional questions involved (Commander-in-Chief, Congressional power to declare War, "take Care the Laws be faithfully Executed"), that section ONLY permits a concurrent resolution to direct the troops be withdrawn if there is no declaration of war or specific statutory authorization.

Like it or not, the 107th Congress passed H. J. Res 114, the President signed it into law as Public Law 107-243...and the only legal way for Congress to repeal that authorization - as far as I can see - is by passing another bill or joint resolution...which would, of course, be presented to the President for his signature or veto.


"for with a country, as with a person, what is a man profited if he shall gain the whole world, and lose his own soul?" ...lbj
by JasonCGW on Fri Jun 08, 2007 at 01:53:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ending the War in Iraq (none / 0)

exactly.

so we agree right? you understood that this is what I was saying?


by dpg220 on Fri Jun 08, 2007 at 01:55:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ending the War in Iraq (none / 0)

frankly the fact richardson is peddling this idea maks me like him even less. It actually makes me mad given the seriousness of the issue  and ignores how complicated using legislation is to end a war.

It either shows he has no idea what he is talking about or he doesn't care and simply wants to pander.


by dpg220 on Fri Jun 08, 2007 at 01:58:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ending the War in Iraq (none / 0)

Yes, we agree.

It just seems so simple, to me at least, that I figured there must be something I am missing.

I cannot find a way for Congress to end this war without overriding the President's veto.

Why does Richardson insist there is such a way? I mean, he must have something to back up this claim, right? Otherwise, I agree with you that he is either just pandering or doesn't know the difference ...and both are disappointing, to say the least.


"for with a country, as with a person, what is a man profited if he shall gain the whole world, and lose his own soul?" ...lbj
by JasonCGW on Fri Jun 08, 2007 at 02:02:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

"Congress has the power ..." (none / 0)

... "to declare War".

Elsewhere it talks about how to make law, with Congress passing and President signing, but I'd make the case that declaration of war is outside that system, and the moment the Congress votes a war up or down it is so, no president required, simple majority only.

I think they should at least try it, and then send it to the SCOTUS if necessary. It'd be a fun fight :-)


Start Running Better Polls
by bolson on Fri Jun 08, 2007 at 02:33:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: "Congress has the power ..." (none / 0)

I see your position but wholly disagree with it, as a matter of Constitutional law, public policy, and political strategy.

I also believe that Members of Congress have an obligation to vote "nay" on measures which they feel violate the Constitution. So even if the idea you or Governor Richardson mention is proposed, I could not demand any Member of Congress vote for it since I believe it is unconstitutional.

The question of whether Congress could declare war, against the objections of the President, is quite interesting. Of course, it's never happened before. But, leaving aside that question, I do not believe there is a Constitutional basis for Congress to end the war authorization without involvement of the President or an veto override. (That the Congress has the authority to cut off funds for the war is equally unquestioned.)


"for with a country, as with a person, what is a man profited if he shall gain the whole world, and lose his own soul?" ...lbj
by JasonCGW on Fri Jun 08, 2007 at 04:28:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: "Congress has the power ..." (none / 0)

congress didn't declare war in this case.

they passed a statute.

big difference.


by dpg220 on Fri Jun 08, 2007 at 05:27:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ending the War in Iraq (none / 0)

Thanks for the question Jason. Here's an answer from our campaign's policy team:

There are many points of constitutional law that are unsettled or debatable, including in the area of war powers, but one thing is certainly clear: The Constitution vests the sole power to declare war in the Congress. Period.

This means - and the Supreme Court has held - that this sole power to declare war also vests Congress with the sole power to circumscribe the war that can be fought. And, while a minority of scholars may dispute it, most agree that this also means that Congress has the sole power to declare a war over.

None of this depends upon the War Powers Act, or even the Iraq war resolution enacted pursuant to it. Congress's power to declare - and to "un-declare" - war derives entirely from Article I of the Constitution, and is plenary. Congress can declare the US at war, can delimit the extent of the war and the means to be utilized in its pursuit, and can declare it over, all through solely congressional action - presidential veto is not involved at all. The President cannot "veto" a war resolution by Congress, he cannot veto the conditions Congress places on the war's conduct, and he cannot veto a congressional declaration ending the war.

The enactment process for legislation spelled out in the Constitution, involving presidential veto, is not implicated in such instances at all: This does not involve enacting legislation, but declaring and un declaring war, which is a separate area of congressional power entrusted solely to Congress by a separate constitutional clause.

The War Powers Act was enacted in the wake of the Vietnam War as a way to codify a more detailed understanding of the war powers spelled out in the Constitution. As is the case in many areas of government, we do not have a complete "separation of powers," but an intermixing.

In the area of war, while Congress has the sole power to declare hostilities on or off, the branches jointly share authority for treaty-making - either to end hostilities or to avert them before they even start - and the Constitution makes the President commander-in-chief of the armed forces. This latter fact has led some to argue that presidents have an independent war-making authority of their own. And, clearly, a president can order American arms into action as needed, without prior consultation with Congress, to repel an attack on the United States, its citizens, or its vital interests.

Where the line falls between actions a president must take to defend the country or its troops without congressional sanction, and Congress's clear constitutional authority to commit the nation to war or not, has been a subject of intense, on-going, and unsettled debate.

The War Powers Act attempts to fill that void, by laying out a process whereby the president can act to defend the country where there is no time for congressional consultation or action, but otherwise requiring the president to gain congressional assent to military action before-the-fact where possible or within a reasonable time after-the-fact, where necessary. But nothing in the Act - whether or not it is constitutional - can disturb the underlying constitutional commitment to Congress of the sole authority to take the nation into or out of a war.

In the case of Iraq, the President sought and obtained a congressional authorization under the War Powers Act. That unilateral authorization by Congress can be just as unilaterally recalled by the Congress and the war de-authorized. In addition, Congress defined the terms of the president's authorization to make war in the Iraq war resolution and, if the president has exceeded his authority in the conduct of that war, then he cannot legally maintain his actions - no further congressional action is needed to make that so. A de-authorization vote, then, would essentially constitute a statement that, in Congress's view, the existing war in Iraq was not authorized under the original 2002 resolution, based upon the President's claim that Saddam was a threat and that he possessed WMD. That war, and its lawful authorization, already ended with the removal of Saddam and the ascertainment that Iraq had no WMD. In short, the current war is a war without legal warrant and if Congress so declares the President cannot legally continue to conduct it. This, again, does not constitute legislation subject to presidential veto but flows directly from Congress's powers under both the War Powers Act and the Constitution. Finally, regardless of the WPA and the 2002 Iraq war resolution, Congress can, under its sole constitutional authority over war, declare the Iraq war to be over. As stated above, the President has no power to veto such a declaration, and no law other than the Constitution itself is required to be enacted to give the declaration effect - so, the presidential veto power over legislation simply is not implicated at all here.

Nonetheless, it is important to understand that de-authorization of the Iraq war would almost certainly produce a legal and constitutional stand-off between the President and the Congress, which ultimately would have to be decided by the courts. I have no doubt that the courts would uphold the Framer's original intent in vesting Congress with the sole authority to declare and limit the nation's war-making. But regardless of the legal arguments the Bush Administration may try to mount in response, a de-authorization vote undoubtedly would greatly increase the pressure on President Bush to end the war, and that alone is a step forward.


Joaquin H. Guerra Internet Outreach Richardson for President http://richardsonforpresident.com/blog
by Joaquin H Guerra on Fri Jun 08, 2007 at 07:34:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ending the War in Iraq (3.00 / 1)

Thanks for the prompt reply and engaging me in this debate.

Having worked on campaigns before, I realize the policy team might not have the time or desire to engage in a legal back-and-forth over these issues with random online commentators, so I really do appreciate the extensive comment from the Policy team and I look forward to reviewing it.

If I see something of note to contest, I will probably state it on here but please don't feel obligated to continue discussion.  It may be that on this issue we will simply disagree on the extent of Congressional authority.


"for with a country, as with a person, what is a man profited if he shall gain the whole world, and lose his own soul?" ...lbj
by JasonCGW on Fri Jun 08, 2007 at 08:41:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ending the War in Iraq (none / 0)

And Bill Richardson will end the war immediately and start bringing our troops home. Everyone else wants to wait until the fall and leave residual troops.


by Ken Camp on Fri Jun 08, 2007 at 01:31:04 PM EST

Re: Ending the War in Iraq (none / 0)

not true.

Obama wants to start withdrawing now as does Edwards. Obama just wants withdrawal to be slower than richardson.

Notably, not one general thinks that Richardson's speedy withdrawal is a good idea. See the Meet The Press interview.


by dpg220 on Fri Jun 08, 2007 at 01:54:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ending the War in Iraq (3.00 / 2)

Biden's plan of keeping troops in Iraq has a good chance of working?  On this planet?


by Matt Stoller on Fri Jun 08, 2007 at 01:34:44 PM EST

Re: Ending the War in Iraq (none / 0)

No, not keeping the US troops in (that is extremely problematic); but of dividing the country to allow for self-determination-- getting rid of the British historical folly-- seems sane.


by Jerome Armstrong on Fri Jun 08, 2007 at 01:37:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ending the War in Iraq (none / 0)

Ok.  But that's not Biden's plan.


by Matt Stoller on Fri Jun 08, 2007 at 01:40:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ending the War in Iraq (none / 0)

Yea it is:

...a nonbinding resolution by Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. (D-Del.) that urges decentralizing the Iraqi government and creating semiautonomous regions for Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds.


by Jerome Armstrong on Fri Jun 08, 2007 at 01:43:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ending the War in Iraq (none / 0)

No, Biden's plan is to divide the country and leave US troops in there.  You can't pick and choose the parts of the baby you like.

Biden acknowledges that his plan could require a long-term, though much reduced, U.S. military presence in Iraq, much as U.S. troops have helped keep peace among once-warring ethnic communities in the Balkans.


by Matt Stoller on Fri Jun 08, 2007 at 02:05:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ending the War in Iraq (none / 0)

I don't support the "plan" but the bill is good.


by Jerome Armstrong on Fri Jun 08, 2007 at 03:26:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ending the War in Iraq (none / 0)

How? It's just a different form of "democracy imposed at gunpoint." Biden needs the troops to enforce the three way deal.


Visit DebateScoop
by demondeac on Fri Jun 08, 2007 at 06:10:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ending the War in Iraq (none / 0)

That's not self-determination. It'd be self-determination if his plan had much Iraqi support. And I've yet to see that it does, except perhaps from a few more moderate Sadrists.

Sunnis and Shiites may be at each others throats, but the civil war isn't a war of independence. It's a war for dominance. For all that the creation of Iraq was a product of the worst high Tory imperialism with pen and paper, it's now a country, and taking it apart is just as much imperialism.


Visit Forgotten Countries, my new foreign policy-based blog
by Englishlefty on Sat Jun 09, 2007 at 11:20:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ending the War in Iraq (none / 0)

Thanks for the post - I had a diary along these lines this morning... I think the left wing really needs to have this conversation about the right thing to do.  Now, I'm somewhat of an "academic" and think the world would be a lot better if we listend to the experts.  Here is my conclusions on what the experts said:

"A recent Conference at Tufts about terrorism - which was really great - offered academic opinions on Iraq - here is the participants (the only person missing I would have included is Akbar Ahmed)
http://farescenter.tufts.edu/conferences /2007JanBios.pdf

Coming out I got the following opinion from nearly all.

First of all, a total withdraw in Iraq would be a total catastrophe.  The Jihadists, as expressed in the knight under the banner of the prophet, was a state in the Middle East or part of the state.  It would give them a mini-Afghanistan in the country that has the third largest oil reserves, not far from Israel, and separates Iran and Saudi Arabia.

We have a choice between an F and a D- in Iraq.  A  D- is to define our national interest in a Machiavellian way.  We have no ability to make Iraq a democracy.  We have no ability to stop a civil war.  We should forget about these things.

Instead, we need to control whose is going to attack us, where they are...

   Of course we have introduced the threat to the place Bush had said it existed in the first place, but now it is there.  We need a draw down, but not a draw out.
I don't know if the Iraqis can be saved from the nihilism of some of their leaders, or the outrageous blunders of America.  Right now 120, or so, Iraqis die a day.  If we leave, the regions experts see that number going up to around 500 a day.  A Shi'a Sunni uprising could easily arise in countries like Lebanon.  This is worse than Vietnam, because it involves other states, and several ethnic groups.  Osama will win, the Iran Mullahs will win, but the fact is abnormal conditions can last for a long time with no winner - In the seventies an Iran-Iraq war lasting 8 years would be nonsense, but it happened, abnormal can be the standard. We need to accept a long-term poor solution.  Because, if you scratch many Iraqis, academics who are well traveled and speak several languages, and soon the fall back to Sunni, Shi'a, Kurd, and Turkmen.  We should be tough with both the Sunni and Shi'a.  And we have to view it now as a conflict, which is debated in Gaza, Iran, Lebanon...with chances to spread to all - it is becoming region.
    I mean Bush made huge, historic, mistakes.  We need to be forceful with the Iraqi Government.  We should not directly engage Iran - the environment and timing at which you engage is important.  When we engaged the Soviet Union it was always to undermine, challenge, and help the dissidents.  We do, however, need to take a strong stance against Iran and Turkey's infringement in Iraq - through diplomatic back-channels, and economics.  
    The United States should hold a hard-line with Egypt and Saudi-Arabia to be democratic, and not meddle in Iraq.  This isn't Germany or Japan where the region wanted to see us succeed, and the populations were educated and skilled laborers, and they were homogenous societies.  Every outcome is bad, but just leaving is the worse possible.
We need a surge in Afghanistan - 80% of Afghans support, and want more troops.
    Marshall Plan done in the right way works, and it would if we scaled our Iraqi forces to Afghanistan.
The MSM wants a withdraw. And the public certainly does.  I think this because we relate things back to History - and Vietnam was a point where a withdraw was appropriate.  But we need to consider our options here.  We all know Bush didn't listen to the experts on the region before going in.  Perhaps, we should listen to them going out.  And, the fact is we can't leave.  As much as it hurts - leaving is to easy.  Believe me I'm an Obama guy and wouldn't like anything better for him and Edwards to be right on this.  But, the politically popular position is to leave, not the right position.

We all know Joe Biden is somewhat of a panderer... and he doesn't want to leave.  Why? Because he knows that as stupid as it was going it, leaving would be even worse.  

We need to have a serious conversation about what the academic community is telling us, and what we are asking our nominees to do.  It makes a lot of since that the opinion that we need to leave has arisen, but we have to ask if it is right."


"I'm LeBron, baby. I can play on this level. I got some game." Barack Obama
by gb1437a on Fri Jun 08, 2007 at 01:44:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ending the War in Iraq (3.00 / 1)

This has both a good chance of passing and more importantly, of succeeding in Iraq.

Iraq isn't SimCity. The Iraqis have say in what kind of country they want to live in and they don't want to live a a tripartate federal system to bail out US imperialism because the US Congress things it's a peachy idea. The most likely outcome is a Sunni+Shia nationalism that targets BOTH the US occupation and Al-Qaeda with the Kurds NOT getting their own region.

There is ZERO mechanism for enforcement of the Biden plan unless you think the US military should be in Iraq actively dividing somebody else's country against their will in the name of liberty. As for humanitarian grounds when somebody acknowledges the sound methodology of The Lancet/Johns Hopkins study on deaths in Iraq I'll listen to them on humanitarian consequences. Until that point it's just a talking point from politicians.

The way out of Iraq is not to recalibrate what the maximum US position can be again and again and again and make that our policy goal. The way out of Iraq is to accept our losses as sunk costs and stop adding more losses to the pile in order to justify stupid past behavior.

The US should kick $100 billion dollars into a reconstruction kitty to be administered by the UN or Arab League, hold a peace conference, and leave for the oil states that like us like Qatar, Kuwait and the UAE. They pray that the Iraqis are as forgiving as the Vietnamese when it comes to us wrecking their country.


"Nothing seems to embarrass the political class today." - Bill Moyers
by joejoejoe on Fri Jun 08, 2007 at 01:44:40 PM EST

Re: Ending the War in Iraq (none / 0)

Against their will?  wtf do you think they are fighting each other over? What do you think the kurds went separatist for after the first gulf war?? Do you not believe there is already a civil war going on in Iraq?


by Jerome Armstrong on Fri Jun 08, 2007 at 01:49:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ending the War in Iraq (3.00 / 2)

'They' are a dozen different groups.

The SCIRI faction wanted a Shia federal state, but Muqtada al-Sadr does not. The Kurdish factions were fighting each other before the US united them with the invasion of Iraq in '03. And few Iraqi Sunnis of any stripe even feel talking to the US is legitimate.  The new US/Sunni alliances against Al-Qaeda in Anbar derive from a desire for self-preservation, not a desire to help the US.

The Sadrist rhetoric now is all about Iraqis uniting to expel both the US and Al-Qaeda from Iraq, neither of which were in Iraq prior to '03. It only takes a small amount of Sunni pragmatism and Kurdish infighting to tilt the tables dramatically towards the Moqtada al-Sadr. What if Kurdish President Massoud Barzani gets offered a deal - Sadr helps push out the more US friendly Talabani in exchange for a non-interference agreement in the Kurdish north? Why wouldn't he take it?

I'm not denying there is a civil war inside of Iraq. What I am saying is there is also internal factional fighting and no credible central power for the Biden plan to be negotiated with in any circumstance. The Biden plan is destined for failure because it supposes three groups in Iraq when there are really at least 6 internal factions and multiple external actors that all have a stake in ALWAYS undermining the US plan in IRaq - even the Biden plan.

Is the Biden plan more reasonable than the initial Bush plan circa '03? Sure. But we're far, far past that and the US has zero credibility inside Iraq and won't for the duration of the Bush Presidency. The next President will be elected to leave Iraq, not fix it.


"Nothing seems to embarrass the political class today." - Bill Moyers
by joejoejoe on Fri Jun 08, 2007 at 02:38:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ending the War in Iraq (none / 0)

The Kurds are the ONLY group there who want the three way. Takes three to tango.


Visit DebateScoop
by demondeac on Fri Jun 08, 2007 at 06:14:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ending the War in Iraq (3.00 / 1)

Civil war does not necessarily mean that there are separatist desires. This is a fight for dominance, and dividing up the country doesn't do anything but start a border dispute and turn a civil war into an international war, with a much larger chance of drawing in extra-Iraqi forces.


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by Englishlefty on Sat Jun 09, 2007 at 11:23:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ending the War in Iraq (none / 0)

"Iraq isn't SimCity" is a great line.  The Biden proposal has a lot of problems - mailny it would be like an Inda-Kashmir-Paskistan break, which was basically a trail of tears.

We need to view this as a regional conflict within Islam - a reformation so to speak, not unlike the protestant reformation with guns and ied.  The problem is the Muslims didn't go marching into Germany to help Luther - that would have been terrible - the Americans, on th other hand, have gone marching in to help Muslim reformers.  But, for expediency have stopped pushing reform and now just push peace.

Peace won't exists without modernization... We need privat industry in Iraq that gives reformed Muslims the keys, which will further the reformation so to speak.  For the time being we'll have to look at a long term poor solution - not a terrible one as in pulling out.  

The Iran/Saudi problem is huge - our main goal should be to prevent interference (with Turkey as well) and protect our national interested in Iraq.


"I'm LeBron, baby. I can play on this level. I got some game." Barack Obama
by gb1437a on Fri Jun 08, 2007 at 02:03:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ending the War in Iraq (none / 0)

We need to view this as a regional conflict within Islam - a reformation so to speak, not unlike the protestant reformation with guns and ied.

I'm always really uncomfortable with this kind of comparison-- sectarian conflicts in Iraq being compared to renaissance-era holy wars in Europe, etc. The implication seems to be that the current civil war is an inevitable byproduct of shiites and sunnis living near one another in Iraq, rather than being a consequence of negligent post-invasion U.S. policies in Iraq. The point seems to be to shift blame.

the Americans, on th other hand, have gone marching in to help Muslim reformers.  But, for expediency have stopped pushing reform and now just push peace.

...huh?


by Silent sound on Fri Jun 08, 2007 at 02:46:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ending the War in Iraq (none / 0)

Having just heard the lectures from As'ad Abukhalil, Peter Bergen, Rami G. Khouri, and Akbar Ahmed's new book... I think your assertations of my claim are right on, and they all agree.  But one point, this is not only a Sunni/Shi'a issue, but withing both a modern/fundamentalists theological issue - that is where the violance tend to occur.

Quickly modernizing societies are always violent, altough "The...American went in with an intent to push for reformers (although our vehicle was chalabi).  But, for political expediency we have stopped pushing theological reform and now just push for a short-term peace.  A peace is not a rational for a pull-out, because any peace is short-lived... Our best bet is to protect our interest, and let the society reform itself.

We all know the only way Saddam maintained in power was violance.  And, that is the only to control the whole nation...He was governing in the only sustainable way - keeping a lid on this conflict, the current conflict, of modernization.

Non-U.S. Islam scholars are quick to point out the the region has its own problems - and the U.S. just heightened and exposed them.  But, they are quick to place blame on Muslims for many of the regions problems.  We don't exactly have the ability to sat anything like that, but it is the truth.

I use the reformation example, because we like to relate things to history, and it is a much better explains the Iraq than the Vietnam comparison.  Iraq is not Vietnam, shouldn't be compared to Vietnam - Algeria is a much better comparison.  Trying to compare Iraq to Vietnam is a policital move, which leads to a withdraw argument..but, these matters are not cookie cutter.  Iraq is a much larger problem... Think of how much the Protestant Reformation changes Europe and the Americas - that is what is occuring in the Middle East.


"I'm LeBron, baby. I can play on this level. I got some game." Barack Obama
by gb1437a on Fri Jun 08, 2007 at 03:06:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ending the War in Iraq (3.00 / 0)

The Iraqis have say in what kind of country they want to live in and they don't want to live a a tripartate federal system

What makes you so sure about that? Because my understanding is that is what quite a lot of Iraqis want. For just the first thing I come across on Google, this cites a BBC poll:

The survey results have appeared in the media in a variety of aggregated formats. For instance, it has been pointed out that the "Shiite community" is divided on the state structure question, with 41% in favour of a unified state, 40% preferring federation, and 19% opting for partition. This means that the Shiites are in the middle on the issue of federalism, less centralist than the Sunnis (97% of whom favour a unitary state) and less separatist than the Kurds (30% of Kurds demand partition and another 49% insist on a federal state structure).

Two out of the three major groups in Iraq have large majorities supporting either federalism or complete dissolution of the country. I consider that pretty significant. (The Sunnis are all heavily against federalism, of course, but that's no surprise, since federalism would most likely screw them over. It's not yet been explained to me how a federalism plan could be implemented in such a way as to get the Sunnis on board...)

There is ZERO mechanism for enforcement of the Biden plan unless you think the US military should be in Iraq actively dividing somebody else's country against their will in the name of liberty.

Federalism could be undertaken under the auspices of provisions already in the Iraqi constitution, and driven by local initiatives. My understanding is that implementing federalism would require a vote by the Iraqi people, so if we didn't do the plan in a way the Iraqi people supported it, the plan couldn't happen.

The US should kick $100 billion dollars into a reconstruction kitty to be administered by the UN or Arab League, hold a peace conference, and leave for the oil states that like us

We've been pumping reconstruction money into Iraq for awhile without any real effect I've seen. The question is how you can reconstruct a country that doesn't have a government. Right now near as I can gather Iraq doesn't, except on paper.


by Silent sound on Fri Jun 08, 2007 at 02:32:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ending the War in Iraq (none / 0)

By the hard numbers there is too much inter-marrying...too many hetrogenious neighborhoods...and we risk the Shi'a population ceding political power to Iran in exchange for Oil investment - along with access to the southern ports.

Our best shot maybe a strong-arm secular government with enough money to push their way around the nation - not much better than Saddam, but that is the reality.


"I'm LeBron, baby. I can play on this level. I got some game." Barack Obama
by gb1437a on Fri Jun 08, 2007 at 02:42:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ending the War in Iraq (none / 0)

The $100 billion for Iraq

I'm not saying to spend it today or even in the next five years. I'm just saying fund a reconstruction fund as part of an exit strategy. It gives the US some hope of closure, gives Iraqis a reason to moderate anti-US actions, and it's the moral thing to do after wrecking their country.

Polling on Federalism in Iraq
Power, not popularity, is the moving force in Iraq. Iraq would probably prefer a SCIRI run Shia state in the South but it's second choice is a unified Iraq with Sadr factions wielding the most power. The Turks would prefer to take the Kurdish north for themselves but their second choice would be the status quo - semi-autonomous Kurdish north that has no real international footprint. The Sunnis don't have any oil and don't trust the Maliki government or the US. Their second choice would be a Shia strongman they can cut security deals with - not a defacto US-administered oil fund.

So while not the optimal choice for any one group I think an uncomfortable al-Sadr/tribal Sunni/Barzani alliance is the second choice of enough people to make it the most likely outcome.

Helping out the good ol' US of A anywhere in the Middle East is not a way to build support among any faction.

The Iraqi Constitution
Punted every tough decision when it was written to conform to a Bush political timeline. The oil question, the referendum on Kurdish autonomy - these questions are the very sources of the conflict. If they were easy to resolve in a political document, they would have been. They remain unresolved because of powerful, violent forces want the issues unresolved.

The US status of forces agreement with the UN and Iraqi government is up in 6 months. That's when the Iraqis are going to pull the plug on the Maliki government. Then it's just a matter of time before Iraq explodes. I predict 11 months of intense bloodshed in Iraq from January '08 to November '08 - then a kind of truce brokered between the President-elect and the Iraqi factions - with the nod towards withdrawal in winter '09 under the 44th President.

- - -
I know this is a lot of speculation on my part but IMHO it's more realistic than the Biden plan.


"Nothing seems to embarrass the political class today." - Bill Moyers
by joejoejoe on Fri Jun 08, 2007 at 02:58:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Correction (none / 0)

Iraq would probably prefer a SCIRI run Shia state

That should read Iran above, not Iraq.


"Nothing seems to embarrass the political class today." - Bill Moyers
by joejoejoe on Fri Jun 08, 2007 at 03:02:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ending the War in Iraq (none / 0)

Ask yourself this: if they really want it, why don't they have it? If there constitution allows it, why don't they just do it. Fact is, they need incentives, one of which is at the end of a gun barrel.


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by demondeac on Fri Jun 08, 2007 at 06:16:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ending the War in Iraq (none / 0)

Ask yourself this: if they really want it, why don't they have it?

That question's likely to have a really elaborate answer, but the question itself is kind of silly.

For comparison, if the American people really wanted the Iraq War to end, why don't they have it?

Expressing the will of the public is the goal of any representative democracy, but it isn't exactly a guaranteed result. It seems to me there are a couple of reasons to think we cannot really assume that the behavior and nature of the current Iraqi government is always an accurate representation of the way the Iraqi public would most prefer it to be.


by Silent sound on Fri Jun 08, 2007 at 09:19:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ending the War in Iraq (3.00 / 1)

Another problem w Biden's plan was discussed very thoughtfully and pragmatically at www.iraqanalysis.org  Look for an article from early 2006 on the roads in Iraq and why separation into autonomous regions won't work.  A civil engineer using his trade artfully and cogently.

and who the hell are we to "decide" what form of government is good for Iraqis.  

and what about the analysis that one of the civil wars ongoing in Iraq is between separatists of all ethnic groups and nationalists of their same group.  This along with the inter-ethnic fighting to decide which ethnic group gets Baghdad.  Oh yeah, then there is the fighting between the shia groups in the south over who will control  that portion's oil. BAsically the autonomous region separation plan to stem ethnic violence is based on poor analysis and on arrogance of the kind that got us there to being with.

It won't work out the gate. Biden for SecDef maybe, but not POTUS.


by jono on Sat Jun 09, 2007 at 12:04:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Sovereignity (3.00 / 2)

Let's just note that the Brownback-Smith legislation makes it very clear that the government in Iraq is not in the least bit sovereign.


by jayackroyd on Fri Jun 08, 2007 at 02:05:34 PM EST

Re: Sovereignity (3.00 / 1)

Agreed. And if this doesn't do it, the scheduled Iraqi vote on whether to tell the US it's time to leave (which is apparently heavily supported) should do the trick.


by Eqbal00 on Fri Jun 08, 2007 at 02:19:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Why.... (none / 0)

couldn't deauthorization be vetoed?


by Mystylplx on Fri Jun 08, 2007 at 02:52:57 PM EST

Re: Why.... (none / 0)

I believe that it could. See the earlier comment thread above. I commented on Richardson's blog and a response was posted there. So you can look up their feelings on this question.  

but I strongly believe deauthorization could be vetoed.  And to even get to that point would require a Congress that was equipped for a big fight - and the 110th Congress lacks the votes to support such a move anyway.


"for with a country, as with a person, what is a man profited if he shall gain the whole world, and lose his own soul?" ...lbj
by JasonCGW on Fri Jun 08, 2007 at 04:30:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Why.... (none / 0)

their response made no sense.

There is a section in the War Powers act that says what they quote but it only aplies when congress has not acted either by declaring war or passing a statute.

They're wrong.

They acknowledge that it would be challenged in the courts but the challenge issue is not meritorious here. It is an open question whether the WPA is constitutional, but Richardson's idea does not even fall inot the parameters of the act itself.


by dpg220 on Fri Jun 08, 2007 at 05:33:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ending the War in Iraq (none / 0)

And why again is Joe Biden not getting any attention in the Presidential race?

While he had his flaws in the past, the man obviously has a grip on foreign affairs and deep experience in domestic politics.

Yeah he's made one or more votes most really hate....but is a small number of votes a reason to throw away a candidate?

Biden isn't my guy. While I would like to see him promoted into the light more aggressively, and I've said so to Eric Carbone who is his online manager, I haven't adopted a candidate yet. I think we will see more entrants before this is over.

But my point is that Biden deserves a closer inspection. His time on C-Span has been an eye-opener for me. He's a good retail politician.


just a red meat eatin' Democratic Dawg frontpaging at The Democratic Daily...
by BigDog on Fri Jun 08, 2007 at 03:23:28 PM EST

Not My Guy, Either (none / 0)

but it does show how deep the Democratic base is, especially compared to the other guys.  Substance and brains vs. fear and lies.  This nation better not repeat the mistake of 2000.


by Arthurkc on Fri Jun 08, 2007 at 03:49:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ending the War in Iraq (none / 0)

Both Turkey and Kurdistan are important allies.  Whatever we do will be involve compromise.


by Blue Beeyotch on Fri Jun 08, 2007 at 03:25:58 PM EST

Re: Ending the War in Iraq (none / 0)

So are Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States, for that matter. The west coast of the Persian Gulf has a large Shiite population with Sunni rulers, so the states there would also present problems for partition or a weak federal state.


Visit Forgotten Countries, my new foreign policy-based blog
by Englishlefty on Sat Jun 09, 2007 at 11:27:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ending the War in Iraq (none / 0)

Given the unshakable obstinence of the Bush Administration, you either have 67 votes or you don't, and we don't- as of today.  The thinking is that after Petraus' testimony in September (what a circus that is going to be), that some Republcans will say enough and demand a draw down plan.  Just the threat of 67 (we probably need only about 10 Republicans to actually flip) will cause Bush to finally backdown and implement a plan to draw down some troops.  As long as he has 34 votes in the Senate, Bush is holding all the cards.  Prediction on 1/20/09: 75,000 to 100,000 American troops still in Iraq.


Our Moment Is Now
by mboehm on Fri Jun 08, 2007 at 04:01:32 PM EST

Respectfully, no (none / 0)

The simple de-authorization would have a phase in period to withdraw. The majority in polls do not want immediate de-funding or withdrawal. They want the timetable plans.

As for the Brownback/Biden plan, dream on. Obviously "political solution is necessary." How would you get the Iraqis to go along with a three-way split they do not support? With the threat of troop withdrawal? With a promise to stay?

The devil's in the details.

A  comprehensive approach is needed and, sadly, a president with all of the machinery of the State Dept. and the DOD, with congressional support is necessary to accomplish anything.


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by demondeac on Fri Jun 08, 2007 at 05:10:00 PM EST

Re: Ending the War in Iraq (none / 0)

Don't all the Dem candidates (saving Kucinich and Gravel) support a residual force?


by BigBoyBlue on Fri Jun 08, 2007 at 05:46:49 PM EST

Re: Ending the War in Iraq (none / 0)

You are in between the twilight zone and reality -- where we all were placed by the decision to invade in the first place.

Boxer is saying, and well informed/intentioned people honestly believe, that the situation would in fact be even worse were we to completely withdraw.

The mission is too broad now (do everything). But zero mission would be a catastrophe is how her argument goes.

Whether or not we should have embarked on this ill-conceived and illegal invasion in the first place is beside the point. Sunk costs.


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by demondeac on Fri Jun 08, 2007 at 06:20:54 PM EST

Re: Ending the War in Iraq (none / 0)

The major problem with partitioning Iraq into three ethnic segments is that the population of Iraq is mixed throughout.  Yes, it's predominantly Shiite, Sunni, and Kurd in the East, West and North respectively, but there are Sunnis in the North, Shiites in the West, etc.  There are also lots of minorities, such as Christians, throughout the nation.

Kirkuk provides a telling example - will it be a Kurdish city?  Because lots of Sunnis live there.  Will the Sunnis then be exterminated or forced to move?  Same question in reverse.

Although this "Federalism" scheme looks nice and clean on a map and in our imaginations, it doesn't reflect the reality of Iraq's demographic makeup.  


by TValley on Sat Jun 09, 2007 at 01:48:21 PM EST


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