Clinton and the Hispanic vote

Clinton's work and leadership on Immigration is clearly paying off for her with the Hispanic community.  While other candidates have been pretty much silent on the issue of Immigration, Clinton was out there, fighting Bush and the Republicans step-by-step on their harsh and at times xenophobic proposals and statements on Immigration.

As a result she has built a constituency in the Hispanic community that promises to deliver an unprecedented Hispanic vote to the Democrats, a vote of proportions we have never seen before for our party.   Other candidates could perhaps benefit from Hispanics souring on the GOP, but the Hispanic community is more likely to support Clinton strongly, more likely to turn out to vote in large numbers and actively campaign for her because she has been fighting for Immigration rights for many, many years.  She is uniquely trusted in that community.  

Her position on Immigration reform:

http://clinton.senate.gov/issues/immigra tion/

Her recent letter to president Bush to abandon efforts to scale back the family visa system and ask every family member to return to their home countries and pay a stiff fine and fee to be readmitted to the country.  

http://clinton.senate.gov/news/statement s/details.cfm?id=273167

An article that appeared today in the USA Today underscores how well Hillary Clinton is received by the Hispanic community and how much of a historic opportunity we have to get a major share of that fastest-growing voter block into our fold, reversing recent trends away from the Democratic party.  

http://www.usatoday.com/printedition/new s/20070628/1a_cover28.art.htm

Hispanics are returning to Democrats for 2008

SAN ANTONIO -- Like no Republican before him, George W. Bush drew Hispanics to the GOP.

In the 2004 election, at least 40% of the voters in the nation's largest and fastest-growing minority group backed Bush, double the share of Hispanics who had supported Republican Bob Dole eight years earlier. But the inroads Bush made are vanishing.

The chief beneficiary for 2008 so far is Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton.

A new USA TODAY/Gallup Poll indicates that Hispanics, by nearly 3 to 1, say they're Democrats or lean that way. Of those, 59% support the New York senator over her presidential rivals -- her strongest showing among any major demographic group and a huge potential asset for early contests in Nevada, Florida, California and other states with large Hispanic populations.

One big factor behind the flight from the GOP: a heated debate over immigration in which congressional Republicans' remarks on illegal immigrants have offended many Hispanic voters. The fallout from that battle, shifting Latino loyalties and a changing political calendar have scrambled political calculations made about Hispanics after the last presidential election -- and raised the stakes for their role in choosing the Democratic nominee for the next one.

"At one time, I think Hispanics were viewed by the people who were running campaigns as a little bit of a distraction, a little bit of a nuisance," says Jose Villarreal, a San Antonio lawyer and Clinton supporter who was a top adviser to Democrats Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004. "Now the community is like an IPO. Everybody wants to invest in it."

Even though the presidential candidates are frantically raising money in the final days before the end of the month -- the second-quarter fundraising totals are seen as benchmarks for their standing -- all the Democratic contenders accepted invitations to addressNALEO, the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials. They will speak to the group's convention in Orlando on Saturday.

In a sign of how GOP priorities have changed since President Bush's careful cultivation of Hispanic voters, all the Republican candidates declined invitations to join a similar forum there Friday, citing scheduling conflicts.

"On the one hand, they say that they're not willing to concede the Hispanic vote," says Arturo Vargas, executive director of NALEO, whose convention opens today. "On the other hand, it's actions that speak louder than words."

During his races for Texas governor and president, Bush made a point of campaigning among Hispanics, praising their values and sometimes speaking Spanish. He's pushing an immigration overhaul now before the Senate that would provide a path to legal status for illegal immigrants now in the USA.

His efforts paid off: After Dole carried just 21% of the Hispanic vote in the 1996 presidential election, Bush built the GOP share to 35% in 2000 and at least 40% in 2004.

By 2005, nearly one-third of Hispanics called themselves Republicans or leaned that way.

"It was the family values thing" that persuaded some of her Hispanic friends and co-workers to vote Republican in 2004, says Millie Linares, 47. The middle school librarian was waiting in San Antonio's muggy heat Sunday for a rally featuring Democratic presidential contender Barack Obama.

Hispanics will be more wary in 2008, predicts her sister, Gilda Lopez, 56, a speech pathologist and reliable Democrat. With a crisis in Iraq and questions at home about the GOP's attitudes toward Hispanics, she says, "I cannot understand how a Hispanic person could vote Republican."

The new survey finds fewer who say they will. Only 11% of Hispanics now identify themselves as Republicans, down from 19% in 2005, while the proportion who call themselves Democrats has jumped to 42% from 33%.

Including independents who "lean" to one party or the other, Democrats lead Republicans among Hispanics 58% to 20%.

In a matchup between the candidates who lead in national polls, Hispanics overwhelmingly support Clinton over Republican Rudy Giuliani, 66% to 27%.

Florida Sen. Mel Martinez, general chairman of the Republican National Committee, says there is time for the eventual GOP nominee to recover among Hispanic voters next year -- and that doing so is becoming increasingly critical. Hispanics represented 1 in 8 U.S. residents in 2000 but are projected to be 1 in 4 by 2050.

Martinez, a Cuban émigré, says Republicans can't win the White House with today's level of Hispanic support. "It would be in my view virtually impossible," he says.

Patti Solis Doyle, campaign manager for Clinton and the daughter of Mexican immigrants, says the New York senator is determined to reverse the gains Bush made.

"We did see President Bush make some real inroads among Hispanics, and she is very aggressively going after those votes," says Solis Doyle, Clinton's former scheduler and the first Latina to head a major presidential campaign. Her office is decorated with photographs of her husband and two children, a Diego Rivera print and framed copies of three Time magazine covers featuring Clinton.

The campaign has hired a leading Hispanic pollster, a director of Hispanic outreach and a liaison to Spanish-language media. Clinton also has landed some prized endorsements from top Hispanic officeholders, including Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and New Jersey Sen. Robert Menendez.

In part, Clinton's strength among Hispanics reflects the fact that she is the best-known candidate. Many Hispanics also have lingering affection for her husband, who got 62% of the Latino vote in the 1992 presidential election and 72% when he was re-elected in 1996.

"I like Hillary," Margaret Crutchfield, a 61-year-old Mexican-American, says after the San Antonio rally for Obama, whom she says she also likes. Then Crutchfield adds, brightening: "I love Bill Clinton."

New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, the son of a Mexican mother and American father, also sees Hispanic support as "a critical part of his constituency," campaign manager Dave Contarino says.

But Richardson still has to introduce himself. Six in 10 Hispanics polled say they've never heard of the former congressman and Cabinet member, the first Hispanic to seek the Democratic presidential nomination.

Richardson is trying to remedy that. He announced his presidential bid in Spanish as well as English. He has accepted an invitation by the Spanish-language TV network Univision to participate in a candidates' debate in September, though he threatens to withdraw unless he's allowed to speak in Spanish rather than through an interpreter. He has announced key Latino supporters even in New Hampshire, a state that's less than 2% Hispanic.

Obama, meanwhile, is playing catch-up. Nearly half of Hispanics nationwide say they've never heard of the Illinois senator. Among Hispanic Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, 13% support him. That's his weakest standing among any major demographic group, according to an analysis of combined USA TODAY/Gallup Polls taken this year.

A local Latino rhythm-and-dance troupe performed at his midday rally here -- brown plastic cacti and colorful piñatas decorated both sides of the stage -- before Obama was introduced to the crowd by Juan Garcia, a Texas state representative and Harvard Law School classmate, and San Antonio Spurs forward Bruce Bowen.

In his speech, Obama noted that his work as a young community organizer in Chicago included Latino as well as black and white neighborhoods. He listed Cesar Chavez, the Chicano farm workers' organizer, among his civil rights heroes and pledged as president to build better relations with Latin America.

"We're not going to fan the flames on immigration," he shouted as the crowd cheered. Local campaign volunteers were sporting bright blue T-shirts declaring "AlamObama," a word play on the Alamo landmark a mile away.

"We're going to solve the problem and we're going to work together," he said.

A month after the 2004 election, members of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus were so concerned about erosion among once-solidly Democratic Hispanics to Bush that they sent a letter to the Democratic National Committee warning that Republicans were "clearly winning the battle for Hispanic voters."

That was then.

Now, the same angst over the Iraq war and the economy that has cost Bush support among independent voters generally also has dismayed Latinos. Bush's job-approval rating among Hispanics is 29%, lower than his 32% rating overall.

Some Hispanics have been alarmed and offended by the harsh rhetoric of some congressional Republicans in the immigration debate and the opposition by most of the GOP presidential field to designing a path to legal status for illegal immigrants now in the USA.



Display:


Re: Clinton and the Hispanic vote (none / 0)

Good news for Clinton.  Great news for the Democrats!


by BigBoyBlue on Thu Jun 28, 2007 at 11:14:57 AM EST

Re: Clinton and the Hispanic vote (none / 0)

I think the Hispanic vote is absolutely crucial for the Democrats moving forward.  They are the fastest-growing minority group and make up one of the biggest voter bloc, and growing evermore.   We have a unique opportunity to get an unprecedented number of them to vote for us, and many coming out to vote for the first time.      


by georgep on Thu Jun 28, 2007 at 11:26:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton and the Hispanic vote (none / 0)

Great news for team Hillary. She is in to win!


by kostner on Thu Jun 28, 2007 at 11:19:37 AM EST

Re: Clinton and the Hispanic vote (none / 0)

others are in it to lose!


Obama! because 51% isn't enough!
by nevadadem on Thu Jun 28, 2007 at 12:52:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton and the Hispanic vote (none / 0)

Isn't this great for Democrats?  No wonder Clinton has such a big lead in Nevada.  That state has a heavy Hispanic population.  


by georgep on Thu Jun 28, 2007 at 12:55:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton and the Hispanic vote (none / 0)

It's true.


While I could sit in church and pray all I want, I wouldn't be fulfilling God's will unless I went out and did the Lord's work ~ Barack Obama
by bowiegeek on Thu Jun 28, 2007 at 02:05:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton and the Hispanic vote (none / 0)

I am not a Clinton supporter, but this is great news.  I congratulate and thank Hillary and her campaign for these efforts which have the potential to benefit all Democrats.  


by TheProf2222 on Thu Jun 28, 2007 at 11:42:33 AM EST

Re: Clinton and the Hispanic vote (none / 0)

Dude-

I wrote this yesterday too.

Obama is unknown by nearly 50 percent of the hispanic community. making generalizations that her immigration stance has paid off is ridiculous when nearly 50 percent of hispanics do not even known who Obama is.

The numbers are nearly the same for edwards.

making a poll support you point only works if that poll samples informed voters. How is a peson going to say he or she supports obama or edwards if they have no idea who that is?


by dpg220 on Thu Jun 28, 2007 at 11:59:14 AM EST

Re: Clinton and the Hispanic vote (none / 0)

Dude, it is the state of the race so far.  I have also seen Clinton speak a lot more about Immigration and take a leadership role compared to the other top-tier candidates.  Her support in that community is real and strong.  If the others make themselves better known they can maybe chip into that lead, but they are far behind at this point.   You are not helping your candidate by claiming that all of Clinton's support is just shallow, low-info, low-intellect, low-whatever.   To claim that a major discrepancy in the voter sentiment regarding the Hispanic community does not exist is naive.  


by georgep on Thu Jun 28, 2007 at 12:10:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

lol (none / 0)

Really grasping for straws. Keep it up; we're enjoying it immensely.

You guys are gonna have a rough couple of news cycles. Buckle up.


by jforshaw on Thu Jun 28, 2007 at 12:16:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: lol (3.00 / 1)

Grasping for straws?  Because it is shown that Hispanics have embraced Clinton 3 to 1 over Obama or Edwards?   That is just a downright silly comment to make.  

We will see about the negative news cycles.  Something tells me that that is not going to be the case.  Of course, you believed that two book releases would bring Clinton down, which hasn't happened, so.....


by georgep on Thu Jun 28, 2007 at 12:47:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton and the Hispanic vote (none / 0)

This is great news for Dems in general.

Makes sense that Hillary is in the lead in this group, not due to any leadership on her part, but mostly due to:

- Republican legislation last Spring which lost any loyalty they were building up with Latinos, leading to...

  • increase in general support for Democrats from Latinos, which in turn...
  • results in strong support for Hillary, who has the greatest name recognition at a national level.

When the unions with high Latino membership, like SEIU, throw support to other candidates, or at least inform their members of other candidates, Obama and Edwards will likely see increases, and Clinton will decrease.  And I'm curious what has been her "leadership" on this issue.

This is where Richardson could have a huge impact.  My partner is Mexican so I experience his family's culture every day.  If a Presidential candidate appears on prime time TV speaking fluent Spanish, the entire community will light up about it, and this will give Richardson a huge lift, in Nevada, for example.


Be a Jan fan! Schakowsky for US Senate.
by passionateprogressive on Thu Jun 28, 2007 at 02:07:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton and the Hispanic vote (none / 0)

This is indeed great news for Democrats in general and Hillary in particular. Thank you so much for the links. The articles helped me understand the issue better. If Democratic leaning Hispanics support Hillary by 59% it is undoubtedly because of her strong leadership.


by DoIT on Thu Jun 28, 2007 at 02:23:25 PM EST

Re: Clinton and the Hispanic vote (none / 0)

This is one more strength to add to already impressive campaign and leading poll numbers.  And it's great that all democrats benefit from it.  Our job will be to get out there and galvanize the people into voting- we seem to have the numbers on our side.


by reasonwarrior on Thu Jun 28, 2007 at 04:57:45 PM EST

Re: Clinton and the Hispanic vote (none / 0)

I am pleased that the Hispanic Vote is going to the Dems.  But I think the Dems have framed the Immigration Issue badly.  If the 12 Million Hispanics are made legal then they will pay into Social Security which will help make Social Security more solvent in the years to come. If employers have to give the illegals healthcare and other benefits then these people will not have to use emergency rooms thereby making our insurance costs less.  Other countries such as Sweden knew the problems of an aging population and took steps to bring in more immigrants.  Canada is now doing the same.


by changehorses08 on Fri Jun 29, 2007 at 12:47:26 PM EST


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