Please explain the huge discrepancies between this polling and the matchups in other recent polls. Why should any of them have any particular credibility?

Excellent point, Todd. IMO, we're in massive trouble if Rudy is the nominee.

I've posted about Rudy's teflon on this site and elsewhere for nearly a year. I don't claim it threatens scientific, but here in Las Vegas I quiz locals and tourists about politics on a near daily basis, by starting conversations in sportsbooks, etc. Rudy has amazing resiliency. I'll mention his wives and personal issues, or how overrated he is in terms of 9/11, and people literally laugh it off. They simply like the guy, and that type of contrast to Hillary in particular is the last thing we need.

Combine that with Rudy's ability to expand the playing field in vital states and we better be rooting for anyone but him to win the GOP nomination. I know I am, despite my 10/1 investment.

When Todd uses phrases like "remarkably high favorability ratings" and "ridiculously strong favorable/unfavorable rating" in one short diary there's a basis for it, and it equates to electability.

Against Thompson it's a standard D vs. R race in a cycle that favors us generically. I'll take my chances there.

The numbers I've been keeping an eye on are Thompson in relation to Rudy in the high delegate states that will decide the nomination. As Todd points out, Thompson has moved to within striking distance, something no other Republican has managed. It's a good hint that Thompson's superior dosage index in terms of conservative issues will eventually push him ahead of Rudy in those states and toward the nomination, provided he doesn't implode during a little technicality called an actual campaign.

As someone pointed out on MyDD yesterday, young voters tilt heavily Democratic on issue after issue, but not so much in terms of pro-life or pro-choice. Rudy would seize a percentage of the general election vote in that regard, including among young voters. It's another reason to root against him. It's pure nonsense that the right wing would sabotage a Rudy nomination by a major third party effort.

ARGH - Giuliani's popularity is nonsensical! He doesn't appeal to the left (do people forget he is actually a Republican!?) and he certainly doesn't appeal to the right (cross-dressing, New Yorker, friend of gays, thrice married, and so on....). Who are these people who HATE republicans in every other poll, but LOVE Giuliani in the head-to-heads? How does a 20-point generic spread turn into a negative spread when you throw this guys name out there?

What I'm saying is, why the hell do people love this man???

Rudy and McCain are two guys I won't be worried at all. Too much stuff in their closets.

Look at those Hillary unfavorables. Jesus christ--these are swing states, too.

Guiliani has the 9/11 aura, and his economically conservative/socially liberal stances put him in tune with the majority of the electorate. Also the media will no doubt cover him like a truth-telling "maverick." Should he manage to get the Republican nomination, he'll be pretty tough to beat in the general, especially for Hillary. The potential upside is that a Guiliani nomination could create a strong third-party challenge from a socially conservative candidate and split the Republican base. However that last part is probably wishful thinking.  

put Rudy's strong positives agianst Hillary's strong negatives and well it doesn't  matter because Hillary's inevitable.

As NYCer, I actually want to run against Rudy.  It is very early and these polls mean very little.  Rudy still has the shine of his performance on and immediately after 9/11.  However, that is starting to come apart given Whitman threw him under the bus this week and the NYC Firefighters Union is on the warpath against him.  Imagine a firefighter suffering from a 9/11 cleanup illness talking about the fact that Rudy didn't spring for respirators, which aren't very expensive, at the clean up site.  You undercut his major strength, 9/11, and what you have left are:

1 - Unqualified support of the war in Iraq using Bushes rhetoric.

2 - Amadou Diallo.  Even many local Rs were appalled at Rudy's berating people when they questioned the police shooting the guy 41 times.  The news conference tapes are going to make great commercials of an egomaniac out of control.

3 - A messy personal life including announcing his divorce in public before telling his wife.

4 - Support of issues that are anathema to Rs including abortion rights, gay rights and gun control.

5 - An extremely prickly personality that he will not be able to keep under wraps during the entire campaign.  Every NYCer I know is waiting for the inevitable meltdown moment.

I don't see him making it to the nomination but if he does he will not be able to hide behind 9/11 forever.  2006 showed America is ready to talk about something else.

This doesn't scare me all that much.  One thing we've seen in the past week or so is that Rudy is vulnerable.  The only state that I think we have a problem with if Rudy is the nominee is New Jersey.  Too many New Jerseyites appreciate the job Rudy did in "cleaning up" New York.

What these numbers says is that Obama is still unknown among the voters. His fav/unfav ratio is brilliant so far (only 20% unfavs).

It goes a long way to explain why he isn't stronger in the head to head matchups. It will be interesting to see the same matchups in six months time.

In PA and OH, Rudy was leading by 4 in the last poll  released 3 weeks ago. Now Hillary is tied. The trend favors Hillary.