I've been trying to track the transformational potential of the Bush presidency -- how the tenure of George W. Bush could change the electorate for decades to come to become significantly more Democratic -- for some time. Back before the election, for instance, I pointed to the argument that once political and partisan leanings are enshrined in young voters, as they appeared to be doing last fall, they tend stay with that cohort for as long as that cohort stays in the electorate.
Exit polling from last November's elections indicated that younger voters -- those age 18 to 29 -- were more likely than any other age group to vote for Democrats, backing Democratic House candidates over GOP candidates by a whopping 60 percent to 38 percent margin (up from 55 percent to 44 percent in the 2004 House elections). Subsequent polling undertaken by Pew back in January also indicated a decidedly Democratic and progressive lean to the group they labeled as "generation next." And now a new survey (.pdf) commissioned by The New York Times, CBS News and MTV finds that younger voters look a lot more Democratic and progressive than the electorate as a whole.
Let's start with partisanship. Those polled, who are aged 17 to 29, self-identify as 12 points more Democratic than Republican (35 percent to 23 percent), a margin not terribly larger than the 8-point margin by which all American adults polled recently in a separate survey by CBS News and The Times self identified as Democratic (37 percent to 29 percent). Similarly, the Democrats 22-point lead (54 percent to 32 percent) in the generic presidential ballot question over the Republicans among this subgroup is not much larger than the 16-point margin (49 percent to 33 percent) by which Democrats lead among all adults. But when asked if "there is any candidate you feel enthusiastic about", and if so whom, 18 percent of younger voters volunteered the name Barack Obama and 17 percent volunteered the name Hillary Clinton. For comparison's sake, the candidate mentioned most frequently after those two Democrats was Rudy Giuliani, who was volunteered by just 4 percent. Overall, roughly 36 percent of those younger voters said they were enthusiastic about a particular Democratic candidate while just 11 percent said they were enthusiastic about a particular Republican one. And on the question of which party comes closer to sharing one's moral values, young voters side with the Democrats by a 16-point margin (52 percent to 36 percent) -- a much larger spread than the 5-point margin (46 percent to 41 percent) by which all adults lean towards the Democrats on the question.
When going through issue by issue, it's easy to see why younger voters are more likely to believe that the Democrats are close to them on moral values questions. Just shy of a half of younger voters (44 percent) favor allowing gay marriage versus well under a third (28 percent) of all adults. More than three-in-five younger voters (62 percent) would favor a single-payer healthcare system over the current system while less than half of all adults (47 percent) would. While the poll found that younger voters look more like the rest of America on other issues like abortion, by and large on many of these questions younger voters seem to be significantly more progressive than the general population. It's little wonder, then, that 28 percent of younger voters self-identify as liberal (versus 20 percent among all adults) and just 27 percent self-identify as conservative (versus 32 percent among all adults).
It's certainly true that political and ideological sentiments can change over time -- and even quite rapidly. Along these lines, it's quite possible that the Democrats will take steps that drastically undercut the good will they have gained among younger voters. Nonetheless, there is a real opportunity for the Democrats to tap into the power of the youth vote to achieve a lasting victory, not only this cycle but in elections to come. And the fact that this polling indicates that 58 percent of younger voters are paying attention to the campaign, up from 35 percent at the same point in the 2004 election cycle, indicates that the youth vote is indeed hankering to be tapped into.
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