You may remember that John Warner, the ranking Republican Senator on the armed services panel who is up for reelection in Virginia this cycle, raised a paltry $500 during the first quarter. As I wrote at the time, "To accomplish such a feat, one almost need ask supporters not to make contributions -- an almost definite sign of an intention to retire." Well, reading those tea leaves, among others, Seth McLaughlin of The Washington Times (consider the source...), seems to come to the same conclusion and pens the following article under the headline "Mum Warner likely to move on."
Virginia Sen. John W. Warner has said little about whether he will run for re-election, but the 80-year-old Republican is giving clear indications that he will not return for another term and that his coyness is merely an attempt to help Rep. Thomas M. Davis III, a fellow Republican, replace him."There has been considerable discussion about the possibility that [Mr. Warner] might delay an announcement of candidacy, then announce he wasn't going to run, to allow Congressman Tom Davis to build up at the beginning of the campaigns, which would give Davis an advantage," said Morton C. Blackwell, chairman of the Virginia's Republican National Committee and leader of the conservative Leadership Institute.
[...]
Speculation about Mr. Warner retiring increased this spring after filings with the Federal Elections Commission showed he had raised only $500 during the first quarter of the year.
Another indication was the resignation last year of Susan Magill, who was Mr. Warner's chief of staff for 18 years.
Again, take a moment to think about the source, The Washington Times. Okay. That caveat stated, here's another data point to consider with a similar number of grains of salt: Word around town in Washington is that Rep. Tom Davis, the Republican who represents the northern portion of Virginia and is seen by many as a political heir to Sen. Warner, has been telling supporters that the four-term Senator will not run again. Take that for what it's worth.
It still seems to me, judging more from Warner's first quarter fundraising numbers than from these subsequent reports and rumors, that Warner will not run for reelection next year. I could be wrong. But if I'm not, his seat will automatically become one of the most closely contested this cycle. A retirement by Warner would lead to serious pressure being placed upon the previous Democratic Governor, Mark Warner, to enter the race -- a race that he could almost undoubtedly win (though I wouldn't handicap the race by putting odds either way at this point). I certainly don't have a pulse on the Democratic Warner's decision-making process, but suffice it to say that many on this side of the aisle (myself included) would love to see him run regardless of whether the Republican Warner runs or not.
|
|
|
Permalink :: 23 Comments :: Post a Comment
|
In order to post a comment, you must be logged in. If you have a member account, please log in to comment.
If not, you can make an account right here. It's quick and free.
