I agree that Obama has a stong youth vote... and I don't think they are showing in the polls.  Becuase this year, as in other high-stake years, voter turnout will be way up.

I also disagree with Chris that Obama doesn't have a path to the nomination.  I think endorsements Edwards/Kennedy/Gore/Fiengold/Powell could mean a whole lot.  And, Obama is trending up in N.H. with a lead in S.C.

Regarding there is no clear path for Obama to capture the nomination at this point.  Senator Obama's path has always required the careful building of a novel constituency large enough to enable his nomination and he has been working hard and well to do exactly that.  The evidence is clear, the question is only will it succeed.

I expect his campaign to come to maturity in about six months, just in time for the primaries.  While you, and Chris, are correct in your assessment it ain't over 'till the fat lady sings.  In the meantime this particular frame is just another obstacle to the aspirations of those he is mobilising.

I was actually thinking about this same subject today. As a college student, it's incredible to see young people taking a stake in their democracy. An Obama student organization with a leadership team and about 100 volunteers was organized before school let out in May (and I got to a school with about 5k students). Obama has been able to energize college students on campuses across the country with his message of fundamental change. A lot of the Obama supporters I know are not vested in Barack Obama himself as much as they enjoy the idea of Barack Obama. I would say that most are completely turned off by extremely partisan politics that leads to gridlock. In fact, Obama supporters at my college tend to be the type of people who if given a choice between Clinton, Bloomberg and a Republican would almost definitely choose Bloomberg. Even worse, these young voters would most likely stay home if given a choice between Clinton and any of the republican candidates. I worry that an Obama primary loss could actually shape my generation by taking away our hope of a 'post-political' era in politics. My hope is that young voters energized by Obama's candidacy will see beyond this election and realize that movements require sacrifice and time. Despite the fact that Obama may not win the democratic nomination for president, I hope that the fire he's sparked in young voters will lead to a generation truly vested in their political system so that the ideas promoted by the Obama campaign last beyond the life of the campaign.

As a Hillary supporter, I agree that she does need to something more for the youth target audience.  She has embraced the internet, that has done well but it does seem like something special for them is needed.  Appearance might be part of that.  Obama comes across as a big brother, Hillary as a mom, and Edwards as a distant uncle.  When she gets the nomination, I expect she will address the youth aspect more- Obama seems to have it pretty sewn up there- but once she is the nominee, she can target them more.  I don't think they will turn away- the election is bigger than just Hillary- the direction of our country is at stake- I think they will respond to the democratic nominee.

I'm sorry, but I can't support Obama. He is getting money from the Rangers and Pioneers who gave us Bush in 2000 and 2004.

"This post isn't an argument for Obama based purely on a desire for a good youth vote narrative.  People should vote for the candidate they think will really change our country or enact the most progressive policies."

That disclaimer sounds kind of half hearted to me. Ultimately, I think you ARE making an argument for basing one's political decisions on a kind of metalevel analysis. And I would agree.

While some vote on the basis of electability, the concept of electability takes a static picture of what is actually a dynamically evolving field. What's interesting here is that, in contrast, the argument for Obama as a catalyst for the youth vote seems to be approaching electability in much more dynamic and sophisticated terms.

I have a theory for why youth dislike Edwards so much. My sense is that youth are much more likely to be exposed to friends who have different political persuasions, i.e. youth who might lean progressive are talking to youth who lean conservative (more often than their older counterparts). You might chalk this up as the freshman dorm phenomenon. (Myself, I don't think I've ever had more discussions with people who I disagree w/ ideologically than during my first two years of college--and I was really apathetic then). Anyway, even if the freshman dorm theory doesn't apply to every young person, it still means that the opposing side's media frames are on young people's radar in general: i.e. young people are more likely to understand meta-level arguments that go beyond electability and point to more complicated notions of framing and narrative. Put simply, young progressive voters are more aware of the kinds of narratives on Fox and right wing radio. Partly due to the corruption fall out, conservatives right now love (absolutely LOVE) when liberals come off looking like self righteous hypocrites b/c that's one of the master narratives that the right clings to in order to dismiss the re-emergence of progressive populism (read: Edward's haircut, and Gore's personal energy consumption). Articles about progressive hypocrisy are all over the conservative blogosphere. So far, though, Obama seems least touched. The reason may be that he seems to have so many other things going against him (his name, the fact that people think he's a Muslim, his race, etc) that the right wing media machine may feel it's unnecessary to advance a hypocrisy narrative about him at this time.

So perhaps young voters know something that the older voters still don't get. Edwards is already dead in the water b/c of this hypocrisy meme, whereas Obama seems relatively impervious to it--ironically the main reason that he's impervious to the hypocrisy frame may be that his name is so obviously a negative that he comes off as someone who doesn't hide his own faults.