Hillary No Chance if Bloomberg Runs

Bloomberg will be Ross Perot - but this time hurting a Clinton instead of helping one.

If Bloomberg is pro-gun control, pro-gay marriage and pro-choice where do you think his votes will come from?

Hillary will run a major smearfest against him realizing she already starts with 47% never ever voting for her.

Check out today's Washington Post.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/con tent/article/2007/06/23/AR2007062301348_ 2.html

According to several gay rights activists, Hillary Clinton and Obama give largely similar statements in private meetings on their opposition to same-sex marriage, citing religious concerns and the fact that older generations of Americans view the term "marriage" as a commitment between a man and a woman.

The activists say they trust the candidates' opposition as heartfelt, while at the same time acknowledging that the candidates' staffers have told them that taking a stand in favor of same-sex marriage is too risky politically. Few national political figures support same-sex marriage, although that could change if New York Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg, who has long said he supports it, decides to run for president as an independent.



Display:


bloomberg's favorability in NY (none / 0)

is higher than Hillary's

he's at 70%


McCain - a serial Opportunist, from marriage to policy positions
by TarHeel on Sun Jun 24, 2007 at 09:47:49 AM EST

Re: Hillary No Chance if Bloomberg Runs (none / 0)

This diary makes no sense.  All you are showing is that Bloomberg also draws some from Democrats, which would hurt all Democratic candidates to an extent.  

Polls have shown that Democrats would actually benefit from a Bloomberg entry if Clinton is the nominee.   If Obama is the nominee the picture is a lot less clear and probably hurts Democrats more than it helps.  That is so because Bloomberg appeals to Independents strongly, which is also one of Obama's larger constituenties.  It also stands to reason that Bloomberg won't even bother to run if Clinton is our nominee, because in that event he would not see a "Pathway to victory" due to Clinton's relatively higher base support she won't be below under any circumstances (approx. 39%.)   He is actually more likely to get involved if a candidate with lower base support like Edwards somehow gets the nomination, as he would see a better chance to actually win against a weaker Democratic nominee.   In that event I agree with you that Bloomberg would hurt our nominee more than he helps, which is yet another reason to root for Clinton to be the nominee.  

I explained all of this in this diary here:

http://www.mydd.com/story/2007/6/23/1733 52/607

Check it out.  


by georgep on Sun Jun 24, 2007 at 10:04:31 AM EST

Re: Hillary No Chance if Bloomberg Runs (none / 0)

At this stage, I really don't believe the polls. How many people know Bloomberg supports gay marriage, strong abortion rights, and gun control? I expect they think he's a moderate Republican who's run NYC well. But he's not a moderate Republican, he's probably more liberal than Hillary Clinton. Not to mention he's a lispy Jewish divorcee.

Conceptionally, I don't see how an independent Bloomberg could possibly draw more Republican votes than Democratic votes. He could potentially kill any of the democratic frontrunners.

Until Bloomberg actually runs and people get to know him in greater detail, the polls are meaningless.


by Korha on Sun Jun 24, 2007 at 02:15:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary No Chance if Bloomberg Runs (none / 0)

How man people know Guiliani supports gay marriage, strong abortion rights, and gun control?


by world dictator on Sun Jun 24, 2007 at 03:23:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary No Chance if Bloomberg Runs (none / 0)

of course, giuliani isn't going to be the gop nominee...


"Anyone who voted for me or caucused for me has so much more in common with Senator Obama than Senator McCain." -- Hillary Clinton
by bored now on Mon Jun 25, 2007 at 08:57:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary No Chance if Bloomberg Runs (none / 0)

Bloomberg willhurt the Democrats in 2008 the way George Wallace hurt the Republicans in 1968.


by spirowasright on Sun Jun 24, 2007 at 12:48:41 PM EST

The polling I've seen (none / 0)

Simply suggests that you are incorrect.


by dpANDREWS on Sun Jun 24, 2007 at 01:31:15 PM EST

the polling so far doesn't reflect (none / 0)

people knowing a thing about bloomberg.

I didn't know for instance he supports full on gay marriage.  None of the non-kucinich democrats do.


McCain - a serial Opportunist, from marriage to policy positions
by TarHeel on Sun Jun 24, 2007 at 03:06:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Real Democrats want the White House (none / 0)

That is the prize.  I really don't think many will vote for a gizzillionaire indy from NYC who used to be a Republican.  For everyone that does there will be a republican who likes him on taxes and business issues, and otehr indys who break one way or another.

Like I said, if the indy vote comes down three ways it will be determined by which parties base wants the White HOuse the most.

In 2008 that will be the Democrats.


by dpANDREWS on Sun Jun 24, 2007 at 07:42:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Real Democrats want the White House (none / 0)

you are far too simplistic in your thinking.  which base wants it most?  when have democrats ever "wanted" most?  i'm sorry, i've only been alive since the 60s, so maybe i didn't experience this grand era where democrats actually were willing to make sacrifices in order to win.  in fact, i always had the impression that a large segment of the democratic base was appalled by this kind of intensity.

but the real problem i have is with your simplistic, linear thinking that assumes that since republicans are dissatisfied with bush (or at least a hefty segment of them) that they will be dissatisfied and less motivated by whoever becomes their nominee.  all one has to say is, hillary is the democratic nominee for president, and you will see unprecedented unity on the republican side.  and republican voters, not just their activists, are much more disciplined than democrats.

you are making broad generalizations based on wishful thinking, not any sense of history or context, based on the fact that democrats were seen more favorably than republicans a month or so ago.  given the downturn in favorability for congress, i have no idea what happens to that number next...


"Anyone who voted for me or caucused for me has so much more in common with Senator Obama than Senator McCain." -- Hillary Clinton
by bored now on Mon Jun 25, 2007 at 09:04:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Again, lets deal in facts (none / 0)

Your snide BS aside, multiple polls, by multiple organizations have shown that Democrats are more energized heading into '08 and that they are more satisfied with their candidates.  Call me crazy but to me that seems to imply that one base is more motivated at this point than the other.

If you a bored go read a book or go outside and play.


by dpANDREWS on Tue Jun 26, 2007 at 03:21:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Again, lets deal in facts (none / 0)

didn't we think the same thing in 2004?  i missed kerry's inauguration, i thought he was sending me tickets...


"Anyone who voted for me or caucused for me has so much more in common with Senator Obama than Senator McCain." -- Hillary Clinton
by bored now on Fri Jun 29, 2007 at 03:51:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Bloomberg sucks! (none / 0)

I am to tired to do this justice, so here is a snip from Salon:

If Bloomberg does run for president next year, he will have some explaining to do. Two billion dollars would buy a lot of television advertising, but no amount of money will stop voters from asking questions.

For instance, voters will want to know why he joined the Republican Party after a lifetime supporting Democrats. And they may not like the answer when they learn that he essentially bought the New York Republican mayoral nomination from the party's leaders and then narrowly won the election by spending an unprecedented $70 million. In a stunning act of overkill, he spent even more to win reelection against a hapless, hopelessly underfunded Democratic opponent two years ago.

Voters will also want to know whether he suddenly left the Republican Party only because its prospects are so dim. Only three years ago, he heartily endorsed the reelection of George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, even vowing to carry New York City for the ticket. Those were the days when he was still an enthusiastic Republican booster and generous party donor, and was praising the GOP as the party of "honesty, efficiency, compassion and inclusion." That sounds ridiculous now, of course, but was he cynically mouthing those banalities, or did he believe them? It is hard to say which would be worse.

http://www.salon.com/opinion/conason/200 7/06/22/bloomberg/

Opportunistic rich man only beholden to himself (not We The People). I don't want election BOUGHT or stolen!


Washington Woman

Progressive Blue

by kevin22262 on Sun Jun 24, 2007 at 01:51:36 PM EST

Re: Hillary No Chance if Bloomberg Runs (none / 0)

Ummm... sounds familiar.


by SandThroughTheEyeGlass on Sun Jun 24, 2007 at 01:55:51 PM EST

Re: Hillary No Chance if Bloomberg Runs (3.00 / 1)

That article says nothing even related to Bloomberg hurting democrats. I'm so sick of people blatantl cherry picking small things and blowing it up like t totally destroys the other candidate. Seriously shut up and grow up.


by world dictator on Sun Jun 24, 2007 at 03:25:08 PM EST

you're buying into conservative talking points (3.00 / 1)


No one reads the Washington Post to find out what Democratic voters actually think.  Au contraire.

You may not be quite aware of this, but Bloomberg is pro-Iraq war, pro-GWoT.  The Lieberman line.  Good luck selling that to Democrats and Democratic leaners.  As a group Democratic leaners are pro-choice but aren't seriously pro-gay marriage, either.

IOW, Bloomberg is the Independent-qua-Republican thing we've seen quite a bit of recently.

Democrats have 45-48% just about committed voters, with a ceiling around 53% or 54%.  Republicans have a ceiling around 47%, with about 42% committed voters.

So Bloomberg has a max of 13% of the national vote, with only 5-6% really available voters.


by killjoy on Sun Jun 24, 2007 at 03:49:16 PM EST

I don't think so... (none / 0)

This sounds like it is saying that gays will vote for Bloomberg because he is the only one who supports gay marriage.  Won't happen.  Gays are smarter than that- they are not going to vote on someone who cannot win to make some "fleeting" statement and risk having another Republican anti-gay administration in office for the next eight years. How dumb would that be?  They won't do it.


by reasonwarrior on Sun Jun 24, 2007 at 09:18:40 PM EST


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