TBA Poll by age

Here's the breakdown by age from those voting in the straw poll at the TBA conference. 37% of those who voted were age 29 and younger, with Obama really strong among them, and Edwards has a plurality win among the Generation X vote, and the Baby Boomers split pretty evenly among the candidates:



Display:


Re: TBA Poll by age (none / 0)

I may be a strong Obama supporter, but this is a win for Edwards -- 18-29s will not be 37% of the primary electorate.


by Adam B on Wed Jun 20, 2007 at 05:36:16 PM EST

Re: TBA Poll by age (none / 0)

Hillary and Edwards have got an advantage over Obama that their supporters are typically older and his support is strongest in the younger set that isn't going to turn out as strongly.


by Quinton on Wed Jun 20, 2007 at 07:02:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: TBA Poll by age (3.00 / 1)

If you're going to use that kind of logic you might as well ask what percentage of primary voters are represented by TBA attendees at all.


by Silent sound on Wed Jun 20, 2007 at 09:41:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: TBA Poll by age (none / 0)

Only 14% of NH Dem primary voters in 2004 were 18-29.


by Adam B on Thu Jun 21, 2007 at 10:44:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

If Obama packed the attendees... (none / 0)

by using Facebook or otherwise, that may account for the large number of younger voters.

He did give a great speech, however, in front of a friendly crowd.  Edwards's was more subdued, but from my perspective weighed more heavily on the mind and the conscience.


by citizen53 on Wed Jun 20, 2007 at 06:49:13 PM EST

Do you some sort of evidence (3.00 / 2)

to back up this claim: If Obama packed the attendees by using Facebook or otherwise, that may account for the large number of younger voters.

If it is mere lazy innuendo, then similar stuff can be said of Edwards' support also. Don't you agree?


by NuevoLiberal on Wed Jun 20, 2007 at 06:59:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Do you some sort of evidence (none / 0)

As someone mentioned in another thread related to this Obama is the only one I've heard of that was actively organising their supporters to attend and providing free tickets at the door for them. A lot of effort to only just edge out Edwards by 3 points.


by Quinton on Wed Jun 20, 2007 at 07:03:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

could you please post a link? (none / 0)


by NuevoLiberal on Wed Jun 20, 2007 at 07:23:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Do you some sort of evidence (none / 0)

I'm so sick of these people making crappy assertions up and coming to their own conclusions about everyone else's candidate but their own and it is always the exact same people. I dread that there are six more months to go before we never have to hear their crap again.

Obama/Bloomberg 2008!


"I don't believe in this can't do, won't do, won't even try style of politics. Yes We Can!" ~ Barack Obama
by ObamaEdwards2008 on Wed Jun 20, 2007 at 07:21:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Do you some sort of evidence (none / 0)

See below.  Maybe if you were not so lazy, you could have checked it out for yourself before YOU make crappy assertions up and coming to YOUR own conclusions.

You act like this was super secret information, when Obama posted it on his Facebook.

Spare us the feigned outrage.


by citizen53 on Wed Jun 20, 2007 at 08:21:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Do you some sort of evidence (none / 0)

I know about Face Book. I'm not talking about that. I'm talking about the assertions and conclusions being drawn from it! If it were Edwards or Hillary, it would be.

"Wow! They really know how to reach the Youth! This proooooooves just how powerful and strong they are"

Go ahead. Deny it.


"I don't believe in this can't do, won't do, won't even try style of politics. Yes We Can!" ~ Barack Obama
by ObamaEdwards2008 on Wed Jun 20, 2007 at 09:10:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

It's a long way to the election... (none / 0)

and you cannot stuff a real ballot box.  We'll see if this translates into real votes.  I am not convinced, and I think that not every 18-29 year old  believes Obama the answer.

If this TBA vote was packed, it actually says that he was less strong among that group, as Adam B conceded above.


by citizen53 on Wed Jun 20, 2007 at 09:42:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

If it was something bad about Edwards... (none / 0)

you would find it immediately on your own.

June 18, 2007

Packing the house

One more sign that Take Back America really is playing the role of CPAC on the left (complete with straw poll, which isn't interesting just because Politico is administering it): The Obama campaign, CPAC-style, is packing the house with its supporters.

As I mentioned in yesterday's story, Obama staffer Hans Reimer is offering, via Facebook, free tickets to the conference, which run to $100 ($40 for students) at the door.

He's expected to be competing primarily with John Edwards for the support of the activist crowd; though Hillary is certainly less likely to be booed this year, and not only because she's speaking at 8:00 a.m. Wednesday.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0 607/Packing_the_house.html

http://images.politico.com/global/obamat ba.jpg

June 16th:

The Take Back America conference will be a test of whether Clinton's shift on policy has satisfied her party's anti-war base.

Not likely to satisfy all anti-war groups

The importance of the issue -- and the forum -- is underscored by the Obama campaign's offer -- on a staffer's Facebook page -- of "free passes" to the event -- an attempt to build a friendly crowd reminiscent of Republican candidates' efforts at the Conservative Political Action Conference, which also hosts a straw poll.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/060 7/4513.html

It's not like this stuff is hidden.


by citizen53 on Wed Jun 20, 2007 at 08:18:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: If it was something bad about Edwards... (none / 0)

8 am??  That's a horrible time for a speech!
I realize most of the crowd had probably been there all week but - jeeez!

Hillary/Obama08
by annefrank on Wed Jun 20, 2007 at 09:45:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: (none / 0)

If it was something bad about Edwards you would find it immediately on your own.

Yes, you're very kind to Obama.


by NuevoLiberal on Thu Jun 21, 2007 at 12:18:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: TBA Poll by age (none / 0)

I agree! There is no way that a large number of people in the 18-29 are going to vote in large number for a party primary. That is just unheard of. No candidate should expect a large number of young voters showing up. I'm a youbg voter myself and most people my age couldnt care less about politics especially primary campaigns of all things. It could happen in the general election though. Campaigns should concentrate on turning out the Latino vote and women voters.


by bsavage on Wed Jun 20, 2007 at 06:55:19 PM EST

Re: TBA Poll by age (none / 0)

YOU WISH.

You people are so full of it. I swear! I'm going to start collecting all of you peoples comments with where they originate, and I'm going to start posting them on My Space ect.

I'm sick of the ageism in the Blogosphere when WE ARE THE ONES WHO DOMINATE IT and not you people!


"I don't believe in this can't do, won't do, won't even try style of politics. Yes We Can!" ~ Barack Obama
by ObamaEdwards2008 on Wed Jun 20, 2007 at 07:24:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: TBA Poll by age (none / 0)

You people??  that sounds so - so - age-ist!


Hillary/Obama08
by annefrank on Wed Jun 20, 2007 at 09:48:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: TBA Poll by age (none / 0)

Blogosphere =! Primary electorate

You can keep believing that the Obama campaign will revolutionise youth turnout, but until we start to see evidence of that I don' think you'll find yourself faced with less scepticism than you get now.


Visit Forgotten Countries, my new foreign policy-based blog
by Englishlefty on Thu Jun 21, 2007 at 08:35:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: TBA Poll by age (none / 0)

obamaedwards2008 is just not credible any more.   Frankly it is a shame that the names of two good candidates are included in the handle of such a nut.   No argument on the use of 2008.


Don't hate the media, become the media. -- Jello Biafra
by Orlando on Thu Jun 21, 2007 at 09:03:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: TBA Poll by age (3.00 / 3)

I completely disagree with the assertion that young people won't turn out during the primaries. This is a historic election cycle and all of my friends (I'm a college student) are very excited and energized about voting- in most cases for Obama, but I do know a few Hilary supporters. In 2006 there was an increase in youth turnout and I would expect a similar increase during this cycle. I'm not claiming that younger voters will make up 37% of the electorate in places like Iowa and Florida, but I fully expect the 18-29 demographic to surprise everyone with their turnout and overwhelming support of Barack Obama. I think this may be part of the movement question posed a couple of days ago. I also have doubts about the substance behind Obama's "movement," but if such a movement is in the works, I'm sure the rising generation of voters is integral to it.


Obama2008....?
by ctnewbie18 on Wed Jun 20, 2007 at 07:46:57 PM EST

Re: TBA Poll by age (none / 0)

... I also think that campaigns dismiss the youth vote at their peril. If claims of youth apathy towards the elections are widspread, I'd fully expect those claims to only bolster political participation among young voters.


Obama2008....?
by ctnewbie18 on Wed Jun 20, 2007 at 07:49:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: TBA Poll by age (none / 0)

The 2004 youth vote was a record setter. Michael Moore posted these stats:

Nationwide, young people were the only age group that voted for Kerry. Contrary to all predictions and to tradition, more young adults (18-29) voted in the 2004 election than in any other since 18-year-olds were given the right to vote in 1972. 2004 was the first time that a majority (51.6%) of all young adults came out to the polls. Young adult turnout was up more than 9% higher than the 2000 election; 4.7 million more young adults voted in 2004 than in 2000.  21 million youth voters cast their ballots in 2004, a record.


by billybob on Wed Jun 20, 2007 at 08:04:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: TBA Poll by age (none / 0)

Here are the stats for the mid-term elections via Breaking Blue. A CIRCLE study showed 25.5% youth turnout in '06 which accounted for 11.2% of all votes cast (10.8 million votes from ages 18-29).

civicyouth.org: ""We have now seen two consecutive elections with substantial increases in youth turnout," said CIRCLE Director Peter Levine. "The increase in 2006 is particularly striking because the turnout of the whole adult population hardly rose at all. It seems likely that the Millennial generation is more involved in politics than Generation X, or that deliberate efforts to mobilize young voters are effective--or both. Given this trend and the magnitude and attention around the 2008 elections we expect record numbers of youth voters."

http://www.civicyouth.org/PopUps/PR_07_2 006MidtermCPS.pdf


"Nothing seems to embarrass the political class today." - Bill Moyers
by joejoejoe on Wed Jun 20, 2007 at 08:31:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: TBA Poll by age (none / 0)

No one denies that more young people will vote, but they are not a monolith, and when they become aware of the issues, there's no guarantee that they will go to Obama.

The one's I know can barely hold a conversation on his actual policies, or how he will get to this place of new politics and consensus.

That said, he received the most votes at TBA from this group because he seems to have packed the house, so to speak.


by citizen53 on Wed Jun 20, 2007 at 08:26:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: TBA Poll by age (none / 0)

Actually, my experience has been that Clinton supporters can't have a debate on the issues and Edwards supporters are the most informed. The young Obama supporters at my university tend to be either extremely active and well-informed or upset independents or republicans.


Obama2008....?
by ctnewbie18 on Wed Jun 20, 2007 at 08:38:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: TBA Poll by age (none / 0)

Some Obama supporters may be one issue voters and vote for "hope."
I mean why would they vote for a millionaire advocating for the working poor - with specific progressive policies that confront the corporatists keeping the working poor poor - when they can vote for "hope"?
They consider Obama's smackdown of Edwards truth-telling about Obama's secret war vote - more important than Edwards smacking down Big Oil, Big Insurance, Big Pharma, Big Telecom, etc.!
Also, most have been led to believe the media's meme that candidates raking in the most money will make the "best" presidents - apparently unaware that the corporatists and corporate media reward candidates they know will follow the corporatist agenda. And with Edwards confronting Big Corporations - he's not raking in all that corporatist dough - and not indebted to them. Therefore, he's a "loser."


Hillary/Obama08
by annefrank on Wed Jun 20, 2007 at 10:07:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: TBA Poll by age (none / 0)

Interesting that Richardson is only a point behind Clinton in the 40-49 age group. Richardson is 59; does that make him an "older brother" candidate for the 40-somethings?


by billybob on Wed Jun 20, 2007 at 07:57:05 PM EST

Yglesias has an interesting take on this (none / 0)

Noone seems to know who was able to vote.

http://matthewyglesias.theatlantic.com/a rchives/2007/06/strawpoll.php

"For eons, liberals have dreamed of a straw poll whose meaninglessness could equal that achieved by the Ames Straw Poll on the GOP side. The Politico/Take Back America straw poll doesn't quite reach those lofty heights, but it's the best we've got. At any rate, Barack Obama eked out a narrow victory, though it would be interesting to know how many people got tickets through Obama's TBA Facebook giveaway.

I'd also like to know what proportion of registrants actually voted in the straw poll. Nobody I spoke to at the event seemed to actually be voting, so I think the survey may be meaningless even as a sample of people who attended the conference."


by okamichan13 on Wed Jun 20, 2007 at 10:26:53 PM EST

Does anyone have any information (none / 0)

on who was actually eligible to vote? Cant find a thing on the polling company's website or on Politico.


by okamichan13 on Wed Jun 20, 2007 at 10:33:20 PM EST

Re: TBA Poll by age (none / 0)

I see the Edwardians and the clintonistaz complaining about Obama bringing in his fans and packing up the place, but i want these haters to answer this to me...Isn't it what straw poll events are all about??..Organizing your supporters and drive them out of their home to show up to vote for you...The candidate that has the most excited supporters to show up eventualy wins.

This is what a "CAUCUS" is all about..Organizing and making your supporters come out for you...This tells me that Obama is by far the most organized Democrats out of all of them...Hillary and Edwards knew they were going to be a straw poll..Did they not bother trying to win this??..I doubt they didnt do anything outreach to their supporters..It's just that Obama has a bigger fanbase...The straw poll is not that important, but as a candidate, you have to try to win it for bragging rights..After all, those people that voted are going to vote in 2008.,,Why did Hillary and Edwards even show up at the event if they didnt bring their supporters with them??.

I seriously doubt that they didnt even attempt to bring out their supporters...I think their supporters didnt come out because they aren't as excited as the obamacrats!...Right now,the Obamocrats are very excited and they came out in small to support barack while Hillary and Edwards supporters did not give a fuck...Maybe they just do not have the support in the D.C area.

Overall, this is a good little victory for Obama....This shows you that his internet voters are nothing like the lazy Howard Dean's Deaniacs...They dont just Blog, but come out of their house to support Obama...That's a great development for team Obama.


by JaeHood on Thu Jun 21, 2007 at 03:22:44 AM EST

Re: TBA Poll by age (none / 0)

not really worth responding to anyone who addresses other members of the community as "Haters".  I will leave you to imagine my thoughtful response in your love filled heart.


Don't hate the media, become the media. -- Jello Biafra
by Orlando on Thu Jun 21, 2007 at 09:46:55 AM EST

Re: TBA Poll by age (none / 0)

Only those officially registered for the conference were allowed to vote, you had to have a # that was given with your registration materials, those with free passes given out by the Presidentials were not allowed to vote, so there was no "ballot stuffing" so to speak.  Turnout was 37% of the registered conference attendees


by JBaker on Fri Jun 22, 2007 at 02:31:58 PM EST


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